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1. Gold has traded between $1,477 and $1,485 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $5 an ounce at $1,486…it bounced off its lows of the morning after a weaker than expected U.S. retail sales report…meanwhile, the U.S. and China’s Phase 1 trade deal agreed to last Friday, but still not officially completed, is already looking hazy, especially regarding China’s promise to hike its purchase of agricultural products, according to a Wall Street Journal report this morning…uncertainty reigns over China’s commitment to buy more farm products from the the U.S…reports say details are lacking over time frame and amount of purchases that were promised…Silver is off 9 cents at $17.28…Copper has slid 3 pennies to $2.57…Nickel, showing some short-term chart weakness, is 20 cents lower at $7.60 while Zinc and Cobalt are both unchanged at $1.11 and $16.10, respectively…Crude Oil has gained 22 cents a barrel to $53.03 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated one-tenth of a point to 98.17…Credit Suisse on Gold at the moment: “It appears that both the U.S. and China are still far from a bona fide trade agreement and economic data is weakening. We continue to expect an October rate cut by the Fed of 25bps (bringing the Fed Funds rate to 1.50–1.75%) as global weakness and trade policy uncertainty persists. Among the many macroeconomic and geopolitical factors at play, the U.S.-China trade war, central banks cutting rates, Brexit uncertainty, and recession fears, the one that appears most supportive of Gold prices is central banks cutting rates. This leads to low/negative yields, making Gold an attractive investment due to diminished opportunity cost”…
2. U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in 7 months in September, raising raise fears that manufacturing-led weakness is spreading to the broader economy…however, this should also keep the Fed in an interest rate cutting mode…the Commerce Department said this morning that retail sales dropped 0.3% in September as households cut back spending on motor vehicles, building materials, hobbies, and online purchases…that was the first and biggest drop since February…data for August was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported…economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would climb 0.3% in September…compared to the same month last year, retail sales increased by 4.1%…
3. President Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under 3 different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race…barring anything unusual happening, the President’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count…Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and U.S. employment data…should those variables hold up, the President looks set to get another 4-year term…the modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once…“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper…“It’s about turnout”…3 models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout…of the 3 models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances…in that scenario, assuming average non-incumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187…“Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report said…much of course can happen over the next 12 months…
4. Major new milestone for Canada Cobalt (CCW, TSX-V) which reported this morning that it has successfully poured its first Silver in a proof of concept test ahead of a significant ramp-up that will officially begin with the pouring of a 1,000-ounce Silver dore bar planned for later this month…the pilot plant at the Castle mine separated native (leaf) Silver, while crushing and screening, and created Silver gravity concentrate from mineralized Castle waste material (with native Silver in the waste, imagine how rich the underground material is)…the concentrate and native Silver were then smelted in the bullion furnace at PolyMet Labs in the town of Cobalt, just a 1-hour drive from the Castle mine, to produce 3 Silver bars totaling 300 ounces…through its proprietary and environmentally friendly Re-2OX Process, and further demonstrating proof of concept, Canada Cobalt also used the same waste material to separately recover Cobalt and produce a Cobalt sulphate at SGS Lakefield…meanwhile, Canada Cobalt has commenced its Phase 2 underground drill program at its 100%-owned and fully winterized Castle mine…multi-directional drilling will build aggressively on the success of the Phase 1 program that featured numerous high-grade Cobalt and Silver intercepts throughout the expansive first level including 13,208 g/t Silver (385.2 ounces per ton), 0.67% Cobalt and 3.8 g/t Gold over half a meter within a broader 5.51-m core length averaging 2,620 g/t Silver (76.4 ounces per ton) in CA-18–02….Phase 2 drilling has started in this Cobalt-Silver rich area near the adit entrance where CA-18–01 also returned a 7-m core length averaging 2.3% Cobalt, 261 g/t Silver and 1.65% Nickel…grade is King, and so too are multiple revenue streams which CCW is securing with its deal to acquire the Northern Ontario Silver-Cobalt District’s only facility combining bullion pouring, bulk sampling, commercial assaying and eWaste processing, with all 4 profit centres specializing in high-grade mineralization…CCW is up 2.5 cents to 38 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…
5. The Dow is down 60 points as of 7:00 am Pacific…in Toronto, the TSX and Venture are both flat through the first 30 minutes…Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy Canada is breaking ground on a wind farm in southeast Alberta in 2020 that it says will produce enough energy to supply 79,000 homes…the $200 million Rattlesnake Ridge Wind Project will be located southwest of Medicine Hat…Amex Exploration (AMX, TSX-V) has announced an $8 million bought deal flow-through financing at $1.80, a 63% premium to yesterday’s closing price, after releasing fresh high-grade drill results from its its Perron Property in northwestern Quebec…Eric Sprott is participating in the private placement and will boost his position in AMX to approximately 14.2% on a non-diluted basis…more results just out from Westhaven which has cut 2.16 m grading 100.5 g/t Gold and 133.4 g/t Silver (Vein Zone 2) in drill hole SN-19–19 at its Shovelnose Gold Property near Merritt…Vein Zone 1 has been extended by 170 m to a total strike length of 840 m after results that included 12.4 m @ 5.7 g/t Au and 44.6 g/t Ag…the company has drilled 34 holes over 14,506 m of a planned 20,000-m program…
6. GT Gold (GTT, TSX-V) released results this morning from 5 from drill holes from its 15,000-m Phase 2 program at its 100%-owned Saddle North Cu-Au porphyry system in Northwest B.C.’s Red Chris district…results from 3 of the 5 drill holes (128, 129 and 130) have extended the known higher-grade core of mineralization previously intersected in drill holes 93, 109 and 112, down-dip by approximately 150 to 200 m, to a vertical depth below surface of 1,550 m…hole 129 cut 793 m @ 0.46 g/t Au, 0.38% Cu and 1 g/t Ag from 488 m to 1,281 m…at 0.72% CuEq, those are numbers that will excite geologists but not Mr. Market, especially given the depth…drill hole 132 confirmed continuity of the higher-grade core in the central part of the deposit, cutting 137.78 m @ 1.71 g/t Au, 0.77% Cu and 2.36 g/t Ag (2.04% CuEq) from 476 m to 613.78 m…the latest results have outlined a northerly-trending and west-southwesterly dipping envelope of mineralization that has down-plunge, strike and width dimensions of 1,400 – 1,600 m, 700 m and 200 – 560 m, respectively…within this broader zone of mineralization is a south-southwesterly-plunging, northerly-elongate core of higher-grade mineralization with down-plunge, strike and width dimensions of 1,200 – 1,600 m, 200 – 400 m and 40 – 450 m, respectively…drilling has confirmed continuity of mineralization with Cu-Au grades generally increasing with depth…the system remains open at depth, and highly prospective targets remain untested along strike to the west and southeast…GTT is off 11 cents on the news to 76 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…
7. Shares of Oil exploration and production companies, along with Oil-field-service firms, have fallen even more than Crude prices this year…while U.S. Oil prices have lost about 26% over the past 12 months, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production exchange-traded fund, a widely cited barometer, has lost nearly half of its value, accounting for dividends…meanwhile, the PHLX Oil Service Index, a basket of 15 companies that help Oil producers unearth oil and gas, is down 54%…of 73 U.S.-based exploration and development companies tracked by The Wall Street Journal, ranging from the $292-billion-market-cap Exxon Mobil to recently bankrupt EP Energy, only 1 has shares that have gained value over the past year – Hess…it’s up only slightly, though, even after a huge Oil discovery off the coast of Guyana…more than 40 of the 73 companies have lost at least half of their stock market value over the past 12 months…in Canada, the S&P/TSX Energy Index is off 8% in 2019 to extend its losses over the past 12 months to 29%…
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Regarding Trump’s reelection.
Its likely the sugar high from the tax cut (which benefited mostly f the rich) and the corporate tax cut, (much of which went to share buy backs, which benefited the rich) , will have been wearing thin in another year.
Don’t forget the visceral hatred that many of us have for Trump and his ilk, likely the majority of voters. His abandonment of the Kurds is just another straw on the camel.
The Democrats will win if they don’t go too far left. I like Amy Klobuchar, a common sense liberal who will return some normalcy to the United States.
Comment by Carl N — October 16, 2019 @ 10:46 am
Jon what are your thoughts on the GGI trading the last couple days?
Comment by Don — October 16, 2019 @ 11:09 am
Don, check out yesterday’s morning alert comments, several thoughts there.
Comment by Laddy — October 16, 2019 @ 3:05 pm
Trumps re election will be based on not only the great economy but also on the total exposure of the corruption on both sides of the aisle. It’s coming, the deep state is desperate in trying this ridiculous impeachment hoax. When you ask anyone what crimes has Trump committed they always change the subject as they cannot tell you one crime he has committed. Yet we will see plenty of proof that the DNC, Obama, Clinton and the rest of the previous administration all were involved in a attempted coup to over throw the duly elected president of the United States. Its coming folks…. sit back and enjoy the show, I know I will!!
Comment by gregh — October 16, 2019 @ 8:40 pm
Yep, the nasty cable of political hacks are coming down. #gotrump
Comment by Jean — October 17, 2019 @ 6:29 am
Not sure how Amy Klobuchar is any different from the rest of the field of dunce-clowns currently offered by the Democrats. She is just as dangerous and radical as most of the others.
Comment by Tad — October 17, 2019 @ 8:14 am