Gold has hovered between $1,194 and $1,208 so far today…as of 9:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,199…Silver is off 26 cents at $16.68…Copper is down 2 pennies at $2.73…Crude Oil remains volatile with nuclear negotiations with Iran having gone into overtime…WTIC is off 82 cents a barrel at $49.27, while the U.S. Dollar Index has lost two-thirds of a point to 97.53 ahead of tomorrow’s all-important U.S. jobs report…
Along with weaker U.S. economic data, analysts at Commerzbank say that physical demand from India should help support Gold prices over the near-term…they note that according to data from the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, the country imported 70 tonnes of Gold in March, “putting total imports in the fiscal year that has just ended at 638 tonnes.”
Looking forward, Commerzbank says the federation expects Gold imports in the new fiscal year to reach between 800-825 tonnes…analysts add that demand should pick up quickly as in 3 weeks’ time, India will be celebrating Akshaya Tritiya – an important religious festival at which a lot of Gold is given as gifts…
The OECD reported today that the annual rate of inflation in its 34 members rose to 0.6% in February from 0.5% in February last year, having fallen since July 2014…but inflation rates remain well below the 2% level targeted by most central banks as consistent with healthy economic growth…
An Unstable World
Another Islamist terrorist attack this morning, specifically designed to murder innocent Christians…five heavily-armed gunmen stormed a university campus in northern Kenya…reports state that at least 15 people are dead, dozens more are injured, and hundreds of students are still unaccounted for…the attack was the latest in a series carried out in the region by the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab group…a spokesman for the terror group told the BBC that it attacked the school because “it’s on Muslim land colonized by non-Muslims.”
Meanwhile, al-Qaeda terrorists in Yemen stormed the coastal city of al Mukalla early today, seized government buildings and freed at least 270 inmates from a prison, including many of its own operatives, according to Yemeni officials…the overnight attack on the eastern city, an important seaport, was a new setback for Saudi-backed government forces already fighting an uprising by Iranian-supported Houthi rebels…al Qaeda and ISIS are both exploiting Yemen’s sectarian strife…
Oil Update
Lifting Oil sanctions on Iran has the potential of impacting global markets long before the nation starts pumping more Crude, though the removal of sanctions is likely to be gradual and subject to explicit and verifiable conditions (we hope) if President Obama gets his way and is able to pull together a 6-nation agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program (an announcement regarding the talks is expected imminently with a news conference having been called, so perhaps the broad framework of a deal has been hammered out – a final version would still be at least a few months away)…
The Iranian regime has consistently demonstrated that it can’t be trusted, and some observers predict that if an “Obama” deal does materialize with Iran, it may actually lead to increased conflict and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East (The Law of Unintended Consequences, especially when over-zealous politicians are involved, particularly a President with extremely weak foreign policy discernment)…
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Iran has been stockpiling Oil onshore and in supertankers in the Persian Gulf…while estimates of the hoard vary from as little as 7 million barrels to as much as 35 million, Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA predict this Crude would be the first to be sold abroad if there’s an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program…again, any final deal won’t come until at least this summer, and the lifting of sanctions surely won’t be immediate…
The world is clearly awash in Oil – this fact, along with the major technical breakdown in the WTIC chart last year, suggests that risks are still skewed to the downside (the “primary” trend) as far as prices are concerned…however, tensions continue to build between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia – Yemen being the latest example – and this increasingly bitter rivalry has the potential of escalating into a broader regional conflict that could bring a significant risk premium back into Crude…in the volatile Middle East, anything is possible…
Technically, what we see at the moment is a growing possibility of a near-term rally in Oil – the fundamental factors that may drive this?…that’s hard to pin down precisely at this point, but one of them could be further weakness in the greenback…a potential deal with Iran throws some unpredictability into the equation, but let’s see what develops over the next few sessions…
WTIC has been trading in a $12 range since late December with resistance near $50 and support around $45…what’s interesting at the moment is that for the first time since Crude’s collapse began last summer, the 50-day moving average (SMA) – currently $49.53 – has flattened out and is now threatening to reverse to the upside…the bearish trend has weakened considerably over the past couple of months, increasing the odds of a substantial rally that savvy short-sellers will likely take advantage of (the primary trend is still negative, remember, unless the Middle East erupts in flames)…at the moment, non-commercial short positions in Oil are at their lowest level in more than 2 years…
TSX Gold Index Update
A big move yesterday in the TSX Gold Index – what’s key to keep an eye on is Fib. resistance in the mid 160’s…this is the level where the Index reacted during a rally last month…
A series of higher lows in the Gold Index since the November apparent bottom at 129 is encouraging…however, it’ll be interesting to see how the Index handles a now-declining 50-day moving average (SMA)…
The producers have pulled back slightly in early trading today with the Gold Index down 1 point at 164 as of 9:15 am Pacific…
U.S. Dollar Index Update
A weaker than expected jobs report tomorrow could lead to a more extended correction in the U.S. Dollar Index which went into a consolidation pattern after touching resistance recently at 100…strong support exists at 96, which is also the rising 50-day moving average (SMA)…it’s quite possible that after the fastest rise in the Dollar Index in 40 years, a more significant pullback may need to occur here…
Today’s Markets
Asia
Asian markets were strong overnight, led by the Nikkei which climbed 278 points or 1.5%…China’s Shanghai Composite gained 16 points to finish at a fresh multi-year high of 3826…sentiment was boosted by news that Beijing is expanding the investment scope of the country’s social security fund…
Europe
European markets were mixed ahead of the Easter long weekend…in Britain, all eyes will be on the country’s political leaders as they take part tonight in a 7-way television debate which could help decide the outcome of next month’s election – the most difficult to call in decades…
North America
The Dow is up 11 points as of 9:15 am Pacific…in Toronto, the TSX has shot up 102 points while the Venture is flat at 681 as it still grapples with resistance…
Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG, TSX) Update
Pretium Resources (PVG, TSX) announced this morning that the company and the Nisga’a Nation have entered into a comprehensive co-operation and benefits agreement covering the Brucejack Project in northwestern British Columbia…the agreement establishes a “long-term, mutually beneficial relationship” between Pretium and the Nisga’a Nation, which has rights and interests as defined by the Nisga’a final agreement in the Nass area where portions of the project are located…
Under the terms of the deal, the Nisga’a Nation will provide continuing support for the development and operation of Brucejack as a safe, environmentally sound mine with participation in its economic benefits, and Pretium will honor commitments to the Nisga’a Nation regarding jobs and contracting opportunities at the project, education and training, and financial payments…
Mexico Update
The most exciting precious and base metal discovery we see unfolding in Sonora State, Mexico, at the moment is Garibaldi Resources‘ (GGI, TSX-V) Rodadero Project, and we’ll be updating our readers on that Monday after recent interviews with both Dr. Craig Gibson and GGI President and CEO Steve Regoci…shallow high grades in a step-out hole 150 m north of discovery hole SE-14–01 has opened up new possibilities at the north-south trending Silver Eagle system, while a large east-west trending mineralized structure has been outlined several km to the north…in total, a dozen targets (Ag, Au) have now been outlined at the 45 sq. km Rodadero Project with 3 key priority areas as the Phase 2 program continues…
Kootenay Silver Inc. (KTN, TSX-V) Update
Kootneay Silver (KTN, TSX-V) has a high-quality exploration play unfolding with its La Negra Silver discovery, contained within the Promontorio mineral belt…we all know how prolific Sonora is as a mineral region…the La Negra breccia discovery is situated approximately 6.5 km north of Kootenay’s flagship Promontorio Silver resource, and a 30-hole follow-up drill program commenced about a month ago with more encouraging results released 2 days ago…
Technically, a confirmed breakout has occurred in KTN above an ascending triangle and chart resistance…this bodes well for Q2…
International Montoro Resources Inc. (IMT, TSX-V) Update
As drilling continues at the intriguing Pecors anomaly (Ni-Cu-PGE target) near Elliot Lake in northern Ontario, immediately west of Sudbury, it’s not surprising that International Montoro Resources (IMT, TSX-V) is now threatening to break out technically above a 7-month horizontal channel as shown below in our updated 1.5-year weekly chart…this is an extremely bullish pattern and scenario for the month of April that importantly is concurrent with a minimum 2,000-m drill program…
We’ll have more on the Pecors anomaly Monday, and why the Ontario Geological Survey (not to mention IMT’s technical team) believes it’s such a promising target…
Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI and IMT.
There has been no update on GBB or WRR for quite some time. I am holding both at a loss. Thank you.
Comment by Hugh — April 2, 2015 @ 8:43 am
GOLD BULLION Identifies New Gold-Bearing Structures At Castle Property.
Channel 4, in Trench D-3, 2.24g/t over 2.2m
Interesting that gold is being found in this District known historically only for Silver as the precious metal.
Comment by Bob — April 2, 2015 @ 8:56 am
I suspect ggi has lost any credibility they had by making investors wait months for results. Then they say heavy bews flow coming! That was a month ago. Also clever investors washed this one away when they started the hype about majors looking around on property. There are no majors looking at a property that has hd only a few holes drilled. Also the way in which they reported assays, the market is onto that as well. The assays were mediocre at best and certainly not market moving in this current environment.
Comment by Ben — April 2, 2015 @ 9:01 am
Ben, you are completely off the mark with those comments, IMHO…there are also some quality companies in the junior resource sector, run by honest people who are doing top-notch work and are protective of their reputations (yes, there are still some of those companies who exist), who potentially would consider at least some of the remarks you just posted in an open forum (this one) to be slanderous (legally, in this case, “libel”). You are on very thin ice – enough said.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 2, 2015 @ 9:14 am
We will agree to disagree Jon. How about a chart on int. Although most know it has a shady past it has had big volume last few days and was granted a patent. It looks like they may be getting ready to pump it again. Might be setting up for another run. As long as one gets in and out quick enough there may be some money to be made. Any thoughts jon?
Comment by Ben — April 2, 2015 @ 9:57 am
Heath (aka Ben), just so our readers know, you were blocked previously from posting in our comments section, for multiple reasons including outright misstatements and the insulting of other posters, so your return under a different name and email address and a slightly different IP in the Edmonton area is short-lived. We would advise against any additional attempts on your part to post here. And no, there won’t be any charts on your Intertainment Media.
Comment by Terry - BMR — April 2, 2015 @ 10:04 am
Nice one BMR, leave that for stockhouse. Largest volume in GBB today in recent memory, unfortunately at a meager 3.5 cents. Are you adding at this point or waiting on the C of A?
Comment by mike — April 2, 2015 @ 10:18 am
Mike, I very much like the potential of the Castle Property, though that’s a longer-term project that needs to be financed thru a different entity (perhaps Takera if that arrangement comes together). The value driver for GBB is Granada and of course the C of A, which I believe is inevitable but the process of course has been more agonizing than GBB initially anticipated. The market with GBB is at the point right now where it wants to see the C of A, it doesn’t care about anything else. How patient some investors will continue to be with that process is the big question. At .035, the market cap is hugely attractive given the near-term production possibilities – but the C of A is required. A slow-moving government bureaucracy is very frustrating to deal with.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 2, 2015 @ 10:54 am
Venture breakout??
Comment by tony t — April 2, 2015 @ 11:37 am
Well Jon called it… closed in the green:)
Comment by Jeremy — April 2, 2015 @ 12:05 pm