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Commodities, and Economic & Political Trends Impacting
The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

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Technical & Fundamental Analysis of Niche Sectors"

July 24, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,077 and $1,090 so far today…as of 8:45 am Pacific, bullion is off $5 an ounce at $1,086…Silver has shed 14 cents to $14.52…Copper has reversed, now up 2 pennies at $2.40…the metal this morning hit its lowest level ($2.36) since 2009 after a survey last night showed a contraction in activity in China’s factories, fueling demand concerns…Copper sentiment was also hit after Goldman Sachs slashed its outlook for the price of the metal earlier this week…Crude Oil, set for its 4th straight weekly drop, is off slightly at $48.39…lower Oil prices are in store if WTIC cannot hold the technically critical $49-$50 area…the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-tenth of a point at 97.31, down from its high of the day…

Holdings in Silver ETFs have been rising while those in Gold ETFs continue to fall…UBS describes Silver ETFs as “quite resilient” with holdings rising by 3.76 million ounces so far this month…July is shaping up to be the 2nd straight month of rises for Silver ETF holdings, the bank says…in contrast, Gold ETFs liquidated nearly 1.13 million ounces over the past 8 trading sessions alone, and the net outflow for the month is around 1.23 million, according to UBSGold ETFs are on pace for the 3rd straight month of liquidations…

“The divergence in Gold and Silver ETF holdings is a trend that has been in place the past couple of years, which is now extending into the current year.  One key driver for this is the difference in the composition of participants – while there is a considerable amount of institutional investor participation in Gold ETFs, there tends to be more retail participation in the Silver ETF space,” UBS concluded…

China Concerns

This really came as no surprise to us given our short piece on China yesterday, but the mainstream media was somehow “shocked” to hear this morning that the preliminary China Caixin purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to a 15-month low in July and “surprised” markets…of course the hit reflects the recent stock market crash and weak export demand…why was this such a surprise?…

The index fell to 48.2, coming in well below the 49.7 forecast from a Reuters poll and the 50-mark separating growth from contraction…with its response to a major stock market sell-off, Chinese authorities have shown increasing desperation with various government measures they’ve implemented…commodities are in a slide and that reflects some inherent weakness in the Chinese economy, while the “wealth effect” China was trying to create from a rising stock market appears to have backfired…governments have a wonderful way of screwing things up…

The Mirror Image of the TSX Gold Index

This double-leverage Gold Index bear ETF may have further to go on the upside, but this 3-year weekly HGD chart demonstrates that a rally, if not a final bottom, in Gold producers may not be far off…the HGD has more than doubled over the past couple of months and is already in overbought RSI(14) territory, but momentum could certainly carry it somewhat higher…very strong resistance exists at $24 which would equate to approximately 105 on the TSX Gold Index, within the band of exceptional support John defined on the Gold Index between approximately 100 and 115 (the Gold Index touched a low of 117 in early trading today)…

Chasing the HGD in situations like this has usually proven to be a very risky strategy…

HGD1(3)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

In a sharp reversal overnight, China’s Shanghai Composite turned negative in the afternoon session to end down 1.3%  after the preliminary PMI “surprised” markets by dropping to a 15-month low in July…this snapped a 6-session winning streak and appears to set the stage for lower prices next week as the 4055 area is critical resistance on the rally as John has shown…Chinese authorities may have to find a bigger fire hose…

Europe

European markets were lower today, thanks to lackluster earnings reports and commodity weakness…

North America

The Dow is down 77 points as of 8:45 am Pacific…new U.S. single-family home sales fell in June to their lowest level in 7 months and May’s sales were revised sharply lower, in what appeared to be a minor setback for the housing market recovery…the Commerce Department said today that sales declined 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 units, the lowest level since last November…May’s sales pace was revised down to 517,000 units from the previously reported 546,000 units…

Amazon (AMZN, NASDAQ) jumped as much as 20% this morning after the online retailer blew past quarterly earnings and revenue estimates, boosted by growth in the North American market and cloud computing segment…Amazon now has a larger market capitalization than bricks-and-mortar behemoth Wal-Mart

In Toronto, the TSX is 36 points lower at 14229 while the Venture has fallen 3 points to 595…the Venture is in unchartered territory but John’s best rough Fib. support estimates are 595, 576 and 547…interestingly, from its all-time high in 2007, the Venture has corrected a whopping 82%…

TSX 6-Year Monthly Chart

The TSX has further to go on the downside if it can’t hold chart support at 14150

TSX1(6)

PyroGenesis Canada Inc. (PYR, TSX-V) Update

A company we’ve been watching closely since it was trading in the low-to-mid 30’s has been PyroGenesis Canada (PYR,TSX-V)…PYR is clearly worthy of our readers’ due diligence, and the stock has significantly outperformed the overall market in 2015 and has been immune to the recent plunge…

The fact that PyroGenesis has become the partner of choice for the U.S. Department of Defense and other multinationals as their technology development resource for waste processing and waste-to-energy applications should be enough to grab one’s attention…

Quite simply, this company is the world leader in the design, development, manufacturing and commercialization of advanced plasma processes…it provides engineering and manufacturing expertise, cutting-edge contract research, as well as turnkey process equipment packages to the defense, metallurgical, mining, advanced materials, Oil & gas, and environmental industries…the PyroGenesis team of experienced engineers, scientists and technicians works out of a Montreal office in a 3,800 sq. m manufacturing facility…

Below is a 2-year weekly chart for PYR…a confirmed breakout has occurred above the Fib. 50% resistance level (39 cents)…PYR has been trading within a downsloping flag since the beginning of 2014, and a challenge of the top of that flag could be in the works during Q3 or Q4...as always, perform your own due diligence…

PYR is off 1.5 cents at 41 cents as of 8:45 am Pacific

PYR2(1)

Equitas Resources Corp. (EQT, TSX-V) Update 

There are “diamonds in the rough” in the speculative resource-related space during this turbulent market period, as shown above, and Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V) has to be considered another example of that in our view as we’ve been pointing out in recent months…the company has benefited significantly from a major restructuring late last year…

In mid-May, Equitas released encouraging results from a VTEM plus airborne survey completed on its Garland Property, 30 km southeast of the Voisey’s Bay mine in Labrador…9 areas of conductivity prospective for Nickel-Copper sulphides have been identified with most responses at the very limit of, or significantly deeper than, detection limits of historic surveys…this is certainly a speculative play to watch closely over the next several months…exploration on the target areas is expected to commence shortly…evaluation of the anomalies will include mapping and prospecting, 30 line km of large-loop EM surveys, and up to 4,000 m of diamond drilling…

Since the discovery of the Voisey’s Bay deposit in the early 1990’s, small parcels of Garland have been owned by 9 separate companies…this is the first time that this large property has been consolidated under 1 owner…

On June 24, EQT announced the appointment of Raymond Goldie to its board of directors…Goldie is currently a vice-president and senior mining analyst with Salman Partners Inc2 days later, the company announced it had arranged a non-brokered private placement of 6 million its at 8.5 cents per unit for total gross proceeds of $510,000, and the closing of that financing was announced a week ago…

EQT has been in a gradual uptrend since its restructuring late last year as you can see on this 2+ year weekly chart…the uptrend line and the rising 200-day SMA at 8 cents are providing strong support…

EQT is up half a penny at 8 cents as of 8:45 am Pacific

EQT1(3)

Pure Energy Metals Minerals Ltd. (PE, TSX-V)

Another out-performer in the market in recent months has been Pure Energy Metals (PE, TSX-V) which recently raised $1 million from the exercise of warrants…Pure Energy is an exploration and processing developer with a focus on sustainable life-cycle solutions for Lithium supply in North America…its focus is on advancing its flagship Lithium brine project in Clayton Valley, Nevada…

Technically, PE has been following an overall uptrend since the summer of last year…the rising 300-day moving average (SMA), not shown on this chart, currently intersects with the uptrend line at 22.5 cents…

PE is down 1.5 cents at 27 cents as of 8:45 am Pacific

PE2

Smart Employee Benefits Inc. (SEB, TSX-V)

A non-resource play we suggest our readers perform their due diligence on is Smart Employee Benefits (SEB, TSX-V)…last month, the company announced that it has entered into an agreement, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, to acquire 100% of Maplesoft Group Inc., an Ottawa-based corporation with regional offices in Calgary, Montreal and Toronto…

The acquisition of Maplesoft is expected to increase the consolidated annual revenue of SEB by over $50-million and contribute substantially to the overall profitability of SEB, according to the company’s June 11 statement regarding the acquisition…on closing the Maplesoft transaction, SEB is forecasting consolidated sales in excess of $110-million

SEB is a technology company with 2 divisions, the Benefits Division and the Technology Division, providing business processes software, solutions and services to corporate and government clients with specialty practices focused on managing group benefit solutions and health claims processing environments…

SEB is unchanged at 54 cents as of 8:45 am Pacific…it appears to be developing a cup-with-handle pattern as shown on this 2-year weekly chart…it may continue to bounce around between the Fib. 46-cent and 57-cent levels for a while, but this one is certainly worth keeping an eye on for the long-term…

SEB1

Integra Gold Corp. (ICG, TSX-V) Update

Serious technical deterioration has occurred in the chart for Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V) which has been a market leader since late last year – not a good sign…this could open up interesting opportunities at lower prices, however…

ICG is off a penny at 24 cents (Fib. support) on this 2-year weekly chart…buy pressure, dominant since early 2014, has turned into weak sell pressure…

ICG3(3)

Note:  John holds a share position in EQT.

25 Comments

  1. EQT – at noon, the bids at .075 just grew and the .08 tickets getting punched, gotta love it.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 8:09 am

  2. Jon, Nice to see coverage on Pure Energy …. quite a story developing here, worth the due diligence. Within the next week or two, a NI-43101 on reserves is expected out. Their drilling hit better than expected. They are down the highway (one part built for Tesla in deal with Nevada government) from the Tesla Giga-factory. Some shareholder’s expectations are some sort of deal with Tesla could be in the making as a lithium supplier for their battery factory requirements. Additional drilling is also upcoming to increase reserve estimates. All this is adjacent to an existing lithium producer at Sliver Peak Mine…

    Comment by vepper — July 24, 2015 @ 8:24 am

  3. Weekly downside capitulation readings in the makings on the CDNX. Timing is about right for a bottom and a move up in September as Jon suggested.

    Comment by Les — July 24, 2015 @ 11:27 am

  4. Eqt – I gave enough time on notice. I even said that I was not done accumulating yet. I am done now. Could see a .09 open Monday with a very strong volume week.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 11:27 am

  5. EQT I first bot @.09 but I averaged down today @.08 and .085. Next week it’s go time.

    Comment by BigRig — July 24, 2015 @ 11:35 am

  6. EQT – also note, it has a lot of room to run before being overbought. The RSI is only at 50 and the MACD has done a “w” and is now ready to cross positive. With only 14 million free trading shares and a market cap of 3 million, this is sizing up to be a tremendous play with the fundamentals at hand and a shorter now in trouble. The guy with the institution who was shorting spoke to a friend of mine a little while ago and said this could cost him a divorce. Let it be known that he is not against EQT, he was forcing it down hoping that Mr. Hardy would do a give away financing at .05 or so. He was told by my friend “don’t do it, you will be sorry”. Well, margin is starting to call mister. Oh, I am not pumping, don’t care if you bought or not, I am simply giving info to those who do own it.

    I am still high on WRR even though I sold my .02’s too, Management has to get their act together on that one. I can always buy back if the situation warrants it. I simply knew what was going on with EQT now and knew it was going to move. Next week will be good.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 11:53 am

  7. @goldstocktrades: Watch $EQT.V traded over 1 million shares up 13% on down day. Drilling for nickel near Voisey Bay. $ZIJMY $VALE https://t.co/uIJgEfLKGp

    Tweet from Jeb Handwerger

    Comment by BigRig — July 24, 2015 @ 12:36 pm

  8. dont shoot tthe messenger:)

    Subject:Enough is Enough

    If the facts are anywhere accurate this is very well presented….in any event this business about “aboriginal rights etc” is out of hand….
    This was quite a well researched and excellent reply to Mr. Mulcair’s ridiculous comments in the Calgary Herald a while back.
    These clueless vote seeking politicians.

    Mr. Mulcair,

    Judging from an article in The Calgary Sun entitled “Enough is Enough”, your position on a National Enquiry into missing and murdered aboriginal women is NOT what needs to be done and Harper is right in not pursuing this time wasting, expensive suggestion supported by both the NDP and Liberals. If you were paying attention at all and did your research you would understand this tragedy, the real issues and what needs to be done to address them.

    Some statistics:

    According to the RCMP:

    6,420 missing persons in Canada 1,455 are women – out of those 164 are aboriginal
    88% of murders of aboriginal women have been solved by police
    89% of murders of non-aboriginal women have been solved by police

    Between 1980 and 2012 there were 20,313 murders in Canada.
    6,551 of those victims were women and
    1,017 of those were aboriginal women.

    Here’s where it gets even more interesting:

    Almost 30% of the 1,017 aboriginal women were murdered by their husbands.
    23% were murdered by another family member.
    30% were murdered by an acquaintance.
    So, only about 8% of aboriginal women were murdered by strangers.

    More statistics:

    44% of the family members and acquaintances who kill aboriginal women were drunk
    74% of the murderers of aboriginal women are unemployed.

    AND NOW THE MOST SHOCKING:
    71% of the murderers of aboriginal women already had a criminal record.
    53% had been convicted before of a violent crime;
    62% had a history of violence with the specific murder victim herself.

    To be clear, there are some Chiefs and aboriginal communities in this country that are doing well, for various reasons, but much of it has to do with their leadership (i.e. Chief Clarence Louie of the Osoyoos Indian Band, but no one (especially the media & government) ever talk about him and his people.

    Here are the REAL issues:

    1. Welfare. The billions of tax payer dollars that go to support aboriginal people, not only in living expenses but free education, free medical, no taxation, etc. has crippled them (as it has crippled many non-aboriginal Canadians for generations). I would venture to say many of them have not worked a day in their lives.

    2. Corrupt leadership who have no idea how to lead, manage, inspire or teach their people ….. who take for themselves and their families and friends and are not accountable to anyone (as evidenced most strongly by Chief Theresa Spence in Attiwapiskat.) and blame, blame, blame the Canadian Government.

    3. Alcohol and drug abuse, gang violence …. all contributing factors in the crime rate on reserves, lack of parenting, family violence and poverty.

    4. A two-tiered justice system that gives aboriginal offenders lighter sentences, or no sentences at all allowing them back into their communities to continue to abuse the same aboriginal women again and again …. often resulting in death (as evidenced by the 83% who were murdered by their husbands, a family member or an acquaintance. If you want a National enquiry …. it should be on this issue.

    When you say “It is inconceivable that we, as a country, allowed this situation to continue” …. and “We urgently need to acknowledge the systemic aspect of this crisis instead of ignoring or dismissing it” ….. what are your intended solutions? A National enquiry is not going to fix these problems!
    Giving the aboriginals more of hard earned Canadian taxpayer dollars is NOT going to fix this problem! WHAT ARE YOUR REAL SOLUTIONS TO THE REAL ISSUES?

    While you’re thinking about it …. here are a couple of other things to ponder:

    This was printed in a Nanaimo , B.C. Newspaper last week, and as you can imagine, it had all the natives out banging their drums and whooping, but you know what.. If the shoe fits .
    THE SO-CALLED “FIRST NATIONS” ….
    -Never “discovered” the wheel
    -Never had a written language
    -Never discovered astronomy
    -Had no science or scientific discoveries
    -Had no mathematics
    -Made no medical discoveries
    -Never had written music
    -Only “figured out” a drum and a rattle for musical instruments
    -Had no metallurgy
    -Had no sails for boats (only had canoes and dugout trees for their thousands of years)
    -Created virtually no mechanical devices
    -Possessed almost nothing that required labour over a period of time, I.e.: building with
    Or carving out of stone
    -Made almost no inventions
    -Are just in the last 200 years getting caught up to most of the rest of the world
    -Have a history that is notable only for underachievement
    Think where an equal number of Chinese would be today; given only 10 years of the advantages Canadian Indians have—no taxes on any money you earn, while living on a reserve-free dental-free university, etc. BTW the hunger striking chief and her husband, were paid $270,000.00 by the band last year. Comments from a reader in the Globe and Mail. It’s a short history lesson on natives…
    This land does NOT belong to them!
    Why do some people keep saying that it does? Is it because that’s what they want you to believe?
    Well then the marketing campaign must be working.
    Let’s get this straight.
    1. These people’s ancestors did not just appear in North America , magically out of thin air one day 50,000 years ago. They came in waves across the land/ice bridge from Asia . What’s more, these waves, in many cases, were not related groups of people. They came from various places around North Eastern Asia and were from different genetic strains. In other words the “natives of North America ” are not a homogenous group of people and more importantly…They are immigrants too. Like millions of immigrants today.
    2. The idea that the “natives” were peaceful caretakers of the land or benevolent tenants couldn’t be further from the truth. The various tribes warred on each other constantly. They were violent. Want proof? Ask the Hurons or the Neutrals…oh that’s right you can’t. The Iroquios wiped them out.
    How about slavery that was rife among the first nation tribes until the Europeans came over and freed the slaves and put an end to this “valued cultural tradition”. Is slavery peaceful and humane?.
    3. The idea that we “stole” this land from them is also ridiculous. A more technologically advanced and numerous culture invaded and conquered. This is exactly what has been happening since the dawn of humanity all around the globe. To say we “stole” their lands is just plain wrong. That is akin to saying the Saxons should return England to the Anglos. Or maybe we should launch a campaign to have the Roman descendants give Italy back to the Etruscans. It is a nonsensical notion driven by the politically correct bleeding hearts, some intellectually deficient politicians, the Government, and it will continue to cost this country needless and wasted billions and billions until we get some backbone and turn off the taps.
    Are these people in trouble? Yes. Do they need help? Yes.
    Are they responsible enough to look after themselves and efficiently spend the billions the tax payers give them?Certainly not.
    The only way to fix this situation is to bring them into society as equals.
    They should be getting jobs and paying taxes like the rest of us because in reality, they are no more special than any of the other hundred or more cultures that call Canada home.
    Turn off the taps. Do away with this “traditional use” and “cultural” nonsense. Educate their children to become modern citizens.

    Comment by Jeremy — July 24, 2015 @ 1:29 pm

  9. Excellent Jeremy, this should be printed everywhere everyday…

    Comment by Tombc — July 24, 2015 @ 3:04 pm

  10. Dave. Excellent coverage on EQT. What website do you use to check for the short interest on Canadian stocks? Thank you in advance.

    Comment by Andrew — July 24, 2015 @ 4:33 pm

  11. i am telling my shareholders do not miss one of the biggest lithium deals in the up and coming 43-101 from the stock pure energy symbol pe on the tsx stock exchange get in as soon as possible wait for big news..my opinion only..

    Comment by tony roma — July 24, 2015 @ 5:20 pm

  12. Jon- Something you may be interested in, co. called Biomark CSE: BUX
    Canadian discovery for early detection of cancer via non- invasive urine
    test,(utilizes an approved drug- amantidine) and in phase 3 clinical trials, could be game changer…..

    Comment by Bob — July 24, 2015 @ 5:43 pm

  13. Andrew, I would not know where to look for shorts. My friend in Canada who keeps up with it told me, but its also posted by some SH posters bout a week ago.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 6:58 pm

  14. Well, some Bozo let the cat out of the bag so I may as well post it here. Oath can’t be broken if its been made aware of on another board.

    Robert Friedland from the old Diamond Fields back in the 90’s wants to get involved in EQT. I am hearing some kind of signing of something, it could be the money coming up on the flow through this coming week, but I am not sure what the deal will be.

    Also, I see that big rig posted about Jeb Handwerger tweeting about EQT today. This is interesting as the meeting between Jeb and Mr. Hardy was postponed due to the death of his friend. I understand that they are suppose to do this by landline on Sunday now due to time constraints and Mr. Hardy needing to be in Canada on Monday. Well, all I can say is if Jeb’s tweeting was a part of the volume today, whats gonna happen when he puts out the recommendation to his U.S. people. I suspect that was Jeb accumulating today on the buy as Anon.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 7:43 pm

  15. PGLC has moved to the big board on the Nasdaq, and took a serious hit in stock price this week. Whoever was brave enough to catch the knife at the bottom fared well today. Despite this, they continue to have good success in Nevada and are backed by deep pockets.

    If WRR would tell us something, anything. Their press release on 06-09 is very poorly written. It leaves you to speculate what they are doing and where they are at now. It is so vague that you don’t know if DRILLS are turning. I am not so impressed with this management team but the land package has great potential.

    WRR, speak up, are the drills turning?

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 8:16 pm

  16. This post is not about EQT, or WRR, or the markets or about the Indians. It’s about Jon, John, Terry who make up the BMR team. I have seen you take a lot of criticism over the years on stocks like GBB, RBW among others. Yet many of these stocks went up 5 to 10 fold. I think you do a great job and put out a lot of information for free, not seen in the common place. We don’t always see eye to eye but that just goes with the territory. I am impressed that you have been pointing out stock charts in the musings that have done well and bucked the trend. We all know that there will be certain situations where stocks do well in bad times.

    Every reader here has had the opportunity to buy and sell any stock listed here based off of their own DD. The BMR team puts in an extreme amount of effort and DD on their favorites and I can’t think of many that have not gone up in price. The DBV / GGI situation is so unfortunate and I regret not mentioning it to this board 2 weeks before DBV was halted about what I had heard. I still feel no one would have believed me and sold out of their position. You would have thought I was nuts. So, this time I ask for forgiveness from all aboard DBV and GGI at the moment. I am sure this does not make you feel good now, but I am confident this gets worked out. As soon as I see that this situation has been worked out I will load the truck with DBV. I will not hesitate to put out a statement at that time.

    I tip my cap to the entire BMR team for all your hard work and efforts.

    Comment by dave — July 24, 2015 @ 9:13 pm

  17. Some important new material regarding the Sheslay situation later today on BMR.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — July 25, 2015 @ 4:54 am

  18. I hope it’s positve Jon. You are also preparing some thing about Sheslay and government ?

    Comment by Guy Delisle — July 25, 2015 @ 5:10 am

  19. Stay tuned, Guy. We continue to research deeply into this, despite getting stonewalled from time to time.

    Comment by Jonn - BMR — July 25, 2015 @ 5:22 am

  20. Bmr made a great job, a chance that we have BMR !

    Comment by Guy Delisle — July 25, 2015 @ 5:29 am

  21. hi jon i was wondering why you would start to cover pure energy or tsx.symbol pe .this is going to be an explosive stock to the upside soon..

    Comment by tony roma — July 25, 2015 @ 6:41 am

  22. As Guy said, I sure hope the new material you have is positive Jon, we sure could use some good news right about now…lots hanging on this for many investors, including myself.

    Comment by Steve A. — July 25, 2015 @ 6:44 am

  23. Good post Dave, the BMR team certainly does deserve a tip of the ‘golden’ hat for all they do. A class act team in my opinion.

    Comment by Steve A. — July 25, 2015 @ 6:56 am

  24. Why, Tony? We’re constantly looking at different situations and we’re seeing interesting technical patterns in PE, plus we like the Lithium sector.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — July 25, 2015 @ 7:04 am

  25. Yes, BMR has done an excellent job and have dedicated tremendous time to a cause that they believe is worth fighting for and I agree! Nobody is covering the Sheslay and they have been for a long time but soon others will follow soon. They envisioned that the Sheslay would become an important mining district and so far the clues that it will are getting stronger and stronger! One more hurdle/obstacle and then its full speed ahead.

    I sure hope that BMR staff hold a lot of DBV shares so they reap the rewards for their efforts once this gets resolved and The HAT become a world class deposit! I sure will…..

    Comment by D4 — July 25, 2015 @ 7:09 am

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