Gold has traded between $1,139 and $1,149 so far today…as of 10:10 am Pacific, bullion is up $7 an ounce at $1,141 as it climbs back toward resistance around $1,150…Silver is 2 cents higher at $14.65…Copper has shed 4 pennies to $2.29…Crude Oil has fallen $3.48 a barrel to $45.72 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated nearly half a point to 95.43…
Short-covering has played a key role in driving Gold higher recently…in a research note published yesterday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank said that Gold’s gross short positions have fallen to their lowest level in 12 weeks…indeed, for the week ending August 25, the disaggregated Commitment of Traders Report (COT) showed that gross shorts fell more than 3 times as much as gross longs increased…
According to UBS, the fact that “expectations for a September rate hike have come down considerably from the peak in early August keeps the Gold market supported for now.”
Morgan Stanley looks for more weakness in Gold before the year is out, listing an average price forecast of $1,080 in Q4 before improvement to $1,100 and $1,165 in the first 2 quarters of 2016…
Gold and other metal coins in the hands of pure evil – ISIS touted “the return of the Gold dinar” in an hour-long video released over the weekend…ISIS first announced its intention to issue its own money late last year and tasked its Beit al Mal, or treasury, with minting the coins, which come in several denominations made of Gold, Silver and Copper…Goldsmiths in Mosul imported machines from Italy in recent years, each one able to produce about 5,000 coins a day…the metals, of course, come largely from banks the group seized, ransoms, the homes of Christians and other minorities who fled the terrorist group…each coin bears an inscription that reads, “The Islamic State, a caliphate based on the doctrine of prophecy”…Oil, the group said in the video, will now only be sold for Gold…
Gold Seasonality Chart
Gold has entered what’s traditionally its strongest month of the year as you can see in this seasonality chart going back to 1996…no month has a higher success rate for Gold than September with a price increase over August occurring more than two-thirds (68%) of the time…September’s average price gain of 2.6% exceeds that of January (2.3%) and November (2.2%)…this month is also followed, however, by one of the worst months of the year for Gold – October…
More China Concerns
More evidence of an economic slowdown in China…the country’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in August from 50.0 a month ago, as reported this morning by China’s National Bureau of Statistics…that number fell slightly short of most economists’ forecasts…China’s official non-manufacturing PMI, also released today, fell to 53.4 from 53.9 in July…meanwhile, the preliminary Caixin China manufacturing PMI, a competing gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, declined to 47.1 in August, its lowest level in 77 months…
“There is insufficient growth momentum in the country’s manufacturing sector,” said Zhao Qinghe, an economist with the National Bureau of Statistics, in a statement accompanying the release of the official economic data…
China has slashed interest rates 5 times since November and made repeated moves to let banks lend more of their deposits…it has also offered tax breaks for businesses and accelerated approvals for infrastructure projects, in addition to recently devaluing the yuan to give the manufacturing sector a boost…
Canada Officially In Recession Despite June Recovery
Despite an encouraging rebound in June, Canada’s economy contracted by 0.5% in the 2nd quarter, Statistics Canada revealed this morning, officially putting the Canadian economy in recession for the 1st half of the year…Statscan also revised its Q1 GDP reading down to –0.8% from an earlier report of –0.6%…a technical recession, of course, is defined as back-to-back quarters of economic contraction…Q2 ended on a positive note, however, with GDP growing by 0.5% – its strongest reading in quite a while, and beating expectations of a 0.2% jump…the Ministry of Finance also reported a $5 billion surplus for the April-May-June quarter…
Alberta’s Growing Economic Mess
Alberta’s first fiscal update under the new NDP government paints a bleak picture of the once-booming Oil province: a deficit of nearly $6-billion, and growing, despite higher income and corporate taxes; soaring unemployment; slumping manufacturing; and an expected 0.6% GDP contraction in 2015 (likely will be worse than that)…Alberta’s recent Progressive Conservative governments (liberals, not true conservatives) overspent and mishandled the wealth that was generated from the Oil industry, and now Albertans have an even more incompetent group of economic managers in control who are also increasing government spending while jacking up taxes on corporations and individuals as well…brain power and capital will definitely be flowing out of this province to other jurisdictions over the next few years, just like in B.C. and Ontario when NDP regimes last held the reigns of power in those provinces…
Crude Oil Update
The strong rally in Crude Oil that started last week, after it touched a low just above $35 support, was given some fresh impetus yesterday when OPEC said it’s ready to talk to other global producers to achieve “fair prices”, while the U.S. government reduced its Crude Oil output estimates…the Department of Energy said domestic production was 130,000 barrels per day lower than initially reported in the first 5 months of the year…
Technically, Crude faces strong resistance between $45, a level it’s grappling with right now, and the downtrend line shown on this 2-year weekly chart which currently intersects around $55…given those facts, one must be cautious regarding this Oil rally – there’s no confirmed indication at this point that Crude has necessarily found a final bottom…what it is doing, for sure, is swinging within a well-defined trading range with clear support and resistance levels…fundamentally, there still needs to be a better balance between supply and demand – that will hinge on numerous factors that play out over the coming weeks and months…
CRB Index Updated Chart
Encouragingly, the CRB Index held just above the critical 180 level during a challenging August and finished the month within the chart support band beginning at 200 and continuing to 220 (now strong resistance)…the CRB’s recent price low was not confirmed by a new low in the RSI(14) which may have bottomed in extreme oversold conditions at the end of last year/early this year…
Key moves would be a breakout above 220 or a breakdown below 180 – anything within that area is like background noise, but a rally up to 220 would certainly help give the Venture a lift…Oil is a major component of the CRB Index, and how it performs will be critical…
China currently consumes about a quarter of the total global output of Gold…for Nickel, Copper, Zinc, tin and steel, it’s around half of world consumption…for aluminum, it’s more than half…those are huge figures…it’s important for investors to understand that Chinese imports of these important metals and materials still remain strong, as Reuters confirmed with some numbers last week, but the heydays of 10% annual Chinese GDP growth that helped propel the CRB to a record high in 2008 are over and won’t return anytime soon…
Today’s Equity Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite fell 41 points or just over 1% overnight on weak economic data to close at 3165…Japan’s Nikkei took a harder hit, tumbling nearly 4%…
Europe
European markets were down sharply today to begin a new month, roughly 2.5%…the euro zone got some mixed economic data today…its jobless rate was pegged at 10.9% in July versus 11.1% in June…a rate of 11.1% was forecast…the euro zone August manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 versus 52.4 in July…
North America
The Dow briefly tumbled by more than 400 points early this morning before stabilizing…now it has headed south again…as of 10:10 am Pacific, it’s down 419 points…the weak economic data out of China and the overnight action in Asia were the triggers for today’s pullback as volatility continues…the Dow has had triple digit gains or losses in 9 out of the last 10 sessions…
The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in August to its weakest in over 2 years, according to an industry report today, while construction spending in July climbed to its highest level in more than 7 years…
Stocks in the S&P 500 have dropped 0.5% on average during the month since 1950, according to the The Stock Trader’s Almanac…that makes September the worst month for U.S. stocks on a percentage basis, though there have been some very good Septembers in the past…
In Toronto, the TSX is off 358 points as of 10:10 am Pacific while the Venture has retreated 7 points to 552…
Venture 2-Month Daily Chart
This morning’s pullback in the Venture is healthy and not surprising after 5 consecutive daily advances and a 9.8% climb from last Monday’s 509 low…
John’s 2-month daily chart shows RSI(2) ended at 94% yesterday as the Index finished just 3 points below its EMA(20), so some quick unwinding of those temporarily overbought conditions should set the stage for a successful breakout above the EMA(20) in the near future…
Last Monday’s hammer reversal, the breakouts above the EMA(8) and the downtrend line, and the readings on the Chaikin Oscillator confirm that cash is again flowing into the Venture…strong up momentum in the SS as well…
Venture Seasonality Chart
The August-September-October period is typically significantly stronger for the Venture than April, May, June and July…approximately 60% of the time, the Venture has advanced in each of these 3 months, though the average combined return has been slightly negative at –0.7%…
Biorem Inc. (BRM, TSX-V) Update
A tremendous climb for Biorem Inc. (BRM, TSX-V) over the past 3 trading sessions…this is a non-resource company we’ve been very bullish about about for months, since it was trading around 30 cents, given its business model, earnings momentum and favorable share structure…last week’s strong Q2 financials and yesterday’s news regarding $5.7 million in new orders sent BRM to a multi-year high of 65 cents this morning…it has since pulled back modestly, off a nickel at 53 cents as of 10:10 am Pacific…
Whenever you see a stock break out above a long-term downtrend line, that’s always a bullish sign and that’s when BRM did last week as we pointed out…note the chart resistance and the Fib. support levels below…opportunities on any significant pullback, in our view, for those who may have missed this one when it was available in the 30’s…
Integra Gold Corp. (ICG, TSX-V) Update
We see good things ahead for Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V) which started a fresh month with some news this morning…the company released final drill results from its winter/spring 2015 Triangle drill program at the Lamaque South Gold Project, Val d’Or…
To company has completed 52,432 m of diamond drilling in 128 holes at Lamaque so far this year…3 drill rigs are currently operating at Triangle with the plan to have 5 drills in full operation on the project shortly…results announced this morning from the last 6 holes of the winter/spring drilling at Triangle included 6 meters grading 13.95 g/t Au in TM-15–22 (239 m to 245 m)…3 high-grade zones were intercepted in that hole…results from ongoing infill and extension drill holes at Triangle will come during the fall and winter…news flow from Integra should be intense with the ramping up in drilling…ICG is up half a penny at 27.5 cents as of 10:15 am Pacific…
Pure Energy Minerals Ltd. (PE, TSX-V) Update
Pure Energy Minerals (PE, TSX-V) has been 1 of our favorites since July and has more than doubled in value since that time, despite challenging overall market conditions…the Lithium space is attractive, and PE has the right address in that regard in Nevada with its advanced Clayton Valley brine project…
Technically, Pure Energy gained momentum as expected on a breakout through Fib. resistance at 47 cents, and that’s where new support should exist…PE is at a nearly 4-year high, clearly out-performing the market…stocks don’t go straight up forever, so it’s always wise to lock in some profits along the way, but Pure Energy has much going for it and we look forward to seeing how this situation develops through the final 4 months of the year…
PE is off 4 cents at 51 cents as of 10:10 am Pacific…
Note: John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in ICG, BRM or PE.
Jon, quick flip on PE for you? I notice your statement of not holding a share position any longer. Interested in your thoughts if it’s been a favourite. What do you foresee in the next 2-4 weeks for Pure Energy?
Comment by vepper — September 1, 2015 @ 9:25 am
Just a guess, vepper, that it could test support at or near .47…sitting there. But this is definitely one of the better plays on the Venture IMHO. And John’s next Fib. resistance level is interesting.
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2015 @ 9:27 am
What is your favourite play at the moment?
Comment by George — September 1, 2015 @ 10:55 am
We’ve profiled quite a few recently, George…a good example – EQT this month will more than pay for my subscription, IMHO, as I wouldn’t ask anyone to invest in a service I wouldn’t invest in. Great volume, probably over-subscribed on the PP, coming into drilling shortly…John’s charts have called this one bang-on from the beginning…
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2015 @ 11:06 am
EQT – I clicked on level 2 every minute since 2:30, saw this coming. Bids on .12 changing from huge to small back to huge then .125 getting taken out. Quite the classic MM’s trying to scare people into selling. Watching level 2 is hilarious.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:16 am
LMAO bid just went to 900k at .12, but watch it change before close. This is so funny.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:38 am
Dave
sure hope EQT closes the PP today bought my last block a few minutes ago and had to sell some losers to do it, hope to make it up in EQT… Im ready to see this fly now… thanks for all of your input on EQT too..
Comment by Greg — September 1, 2015 @ 11:41 am
No problem – now over a mil on bid at .12, all of Canada wants in.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:44 am
Hasn’t scared me off eqt.actually quite interesting.
Comment by Tombc — September 1, 2015 @ 11:45 am
Greg – did you get my email the other day?
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:46 am
all of Canada wants in, lol, Dave. There’s some truth to that in the sense that one of the benefits of the current market that investors need to appreciate is that it’s not hard for a company, that goes about things the right way, to be one of the only “games” in town, so to speak. That’s certainly the case with EQT, and some others we’ve seen lately and will see in the coming weeks. Money looking for a discovery, looking for a return, and not having a lot of options to choose from (simple supply and demand). So then you get a keen focus on what’s moving, what’s working.
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2015 @ 11:51 am
Its not scaring anyone off who knows whats going on and the games being played, and whats to COME.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:52 am
Dave
there is another Greg that posts on here as well, so no I didn’t get your email…but
Comment by Greg — September 1, 2015 @ 11:54 am
Just make sure you have your seat belts ready, ha
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:54 am
700+ on the bid at .125 as we close her out today. And on a terrible day in the market, Hmmmmmm
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 11:58 am
Oh, 2 Greg’s, sorry
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 12:03 pm
Closing of pp may be delayed by a day due to the BC storm.
Comment by John BMR — September 1, 2015 @ 12:06 pm
Closing of pp may be delayed by a day due to the BC storm.
Comment by John BMR — September 1, 2015 @ 12:06 pm
What’s a storm got to do with the electronic world these days John?
Comment by Dan — September 1, 2015 @ 12:45 pm
Ohhhhhh, it may not be a storm in the sky.
1. Don’t ask me to elaborate.
2. Don’t sell EQT, and I have never told people what to do with their money.
This is turning into a chess game. It’s your move Hardy.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 1:25 pm
I won’t ask you to elaborate Dave! And you don’t have to tell me not to sell EQT. Lol. I have a pretty good idea what’s coming and you are right it’s not a storm in the sky.
When those drills are turning the anticipation will send EQT soaring in my opinion.
Comment by Dan — September 1, 2015 @ 1:59 pm
GGI is another one I wouldn’t sell right now. It looks like it is ready to move. If only Regoci moved as fast as Hardy, GGI would already be in the teens.
Comment by Dan — September 1, 2015 @ 2:08 pm
Wonder if insiders of EQT are selling to participate in the PP to fill the hard dollars? Could that be the reason for the delay? I thought the PP was oversubscribed though.
Comment by Dan — September 1, 2015 @ 3:54 pm
Spoke with a Michel ceo of WRR-t Walker river for a good 20 min and here is what i have learned;
Financing sign with a privetly own compagy, they are not going to diluted.
Drill reserve with a initial 6 holes plan, about 150m each
they will first investigate where mineralisation is visible (Top of the hill where the hold mine is located.
He put alot of effort and money to get that where it is right now.
High grade Gold is there all the way that 4km creek. Theau=y have porphyry mineralisation on the property.
Claims to be had to the projet.
He is calm and confident.
Finally, drilling to start week of the 21 of september
Comment by Martin — September 1, 2015 @ 4:06 pm
EQT – More insider selling again today and the PP is said to be over subscribed. The PP should be closing any day now so I don’t think this last minute selling is for the PP……I hope it is though as why would an insider be selling right now before drilling if its not to participate in the PP??
Comment by D4 — September 1, 2015 @ 4:06 pm
Dan, yes on the hard dollars, small one. Yes, oversubscribed.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 4:08 pm
Feel better now Dave. If the PP is not announced before the open tomorrow, I may just pick up a few more EQT shares. One has to wonder if insiders had to sell just to keep the SP down so the PP will be accepted by the TSX.
Comment by Dan — September 1, 2015 @ 4:14 pm
Thanks Martin I’m in WRR since yesterday !
Comment by Guy Delisle — September 1, 2015 @ 5:31 pm
Dave
stupid question, why wouldn’t everyone that wants to buy EQT buy now why the price has been trading between 11-13.5 cents if they all know it is being held down….. and if everyone has bought all they want like I have who is left to buy after the PP is completed…seems like everyone on this board that has been following EQT has bought their share too… I guess besides actual drill results what is going to make this stock go up now before they drill…
Like I said stupid question…
Comment by Greg — September 1, 2015 @ 5:35 pm
The continuous heavy volume for EQT stock is amazing.It’s a mining stock in a horrendous market for miners,yet investors want in badly.No shortage of takers at these prices.
Will the rumours be substantiated once the PP is filled?If so,where does the stock go?The new base is basically.10-.13,so a run on heavier volume with new investors getting in who are sitting on the sidelines right now waiting to see if anything comes of this before making a commitment.
The right confirmation of rumours and a 2-3 day run will occur with 3-5 million shares changing hands each day.It’s a spring that’s waiting to get released.
Comment by jim niles — September 1, 2015 @ 5:41 pm
Yes bought some today Guy as well, as Michel stated, There is only one direction this can go and it is up, He says the warrant are exercisable at 5 cent but are in strong hand. Is goal is to built a resources in the order of 1 to 2 millions ounce. He told me that there is about 8 millions share into traders hand wich he as no control over.
Comment by Martin — September 1, 2015 @ 5:59 pm
Thanks Martin !
Comment by Guy Delisle — September 1, 2015 @ 6:18 pm
Greg – Jim Niles post explained some. You should know that the bigger money has not even entered this yet as they sit on the sidelines. Some enter once drilling is announced as started, some enter on any rumor of hits before assays, and some enter if assays are good. The last mentioned are the big money. Casey, Coffin, Friedland etc.
What is going on now are just us retail and of coarse the brokerage houses. We are just a small fish in a large ocean. The sharks have not arrived yet.The bigger money starts entering after the PP and things start rolling and we are not far away. If you look at the volume and the strong trading all in a bad market and while selling is going on in the PP, makes you wonder what will happen by next week. It is rare for institutional money to come into a spec play. I understand today talks took place, so now you have that interest that is waiting for the drill to turn ready to pounce on this.
Understanding the magnitude of the Voisey Bay story and why over the last 20 years no one found anything until Hardy came along, assembled his world class team, and completed a very expensive VTEM is important to understand the power here. There are spec plays and there are serious spec plays and we are dealing with a monster here. The excitement last Friday I believe has filtered out to the big money players. Remember, $10.00 on this is only 1/17 of the price that Diamond Fields settled when bought out. Is this thought far fetched in this market. Well, I think $170 is, but 1/17 if they hit good nickel, I think not.
Management and crew have to weigh into any spec play you deal with or should at least. They have world class. Yes, the drill has to it, this is obvious, but through the team assembled and the VTEM, and now the ground follow up, it makes a great lottery ticket.
This is my take: if the nickel is not there they won’t find any. But if the nickel is there, they WILL find it.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 6:50 pm
Greg, I didn’t think it was a stupid question at all, I was thinking the same thing. People who wanted to get in had a great chance this week. Hopefully dave is right about a lot of money waiting patiently on the sidelines, dave has been right about a lot of things so far.
Comment by Danny — September 1, 2015 @ 7:04 pm
One more thing, the PP will not close tomorrow, they need that money to transfer over, but I wanted to share something that maybe not many have thought of yet.
We are seeing very high volume as sellers sell for PP and buyers buy during this PP process. Keep in mind around 60% of the float is held by insiders. So if we see 2+ mil share days or more after the PP and we should, where does this go as the float is totally turned over.
I believe that only 14 mil shares are available to trade. If they hit and 5+ mil days come through, well I will let your imagination run wild.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2015 @ 7:07 pm
Thanks Dave
I spent a lot of time over the weekend reading up on the past Voisey’s bay discovery and the report that King put out, cant say I understood it all but the one thing that got me excited more than anything is that the Garland property has potentially 9 targets and Voisey’s Bay from what I understand only had one…if they could find nickel with only one target back then how much higher is the possibility of finding nickel with 9 chances… I know a whole lot of things are going to have to come together but I like the odds at this point… thanks for your input and all the info you have put out there for the rest of us..
Comment by Greg — September 1, 2015 @ 8:31 pm
I may have to stand corrected. The big money flow through is done and they may close it today and wait on the small hard money. But the stock can run if it wants to with the flow through announced. Lets see what they decide.
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 5:30 am
EQT- last ditch effort to bring down the price closer to the PP price…..I think the PP will close very soon.
Comment by D4 — September 2, 2015 @ 5:47 am
We will see what Hardy decides. I know he wanted to close both together. If thats the case we stay range bound another couple days. Either way, next week should be interesting. I think the market is closed Monday too up there.
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 6:11 am
Well, classic PP style here. It traded .13 and .135 to start, came down to .12 then the .115 hit, now 800k on bid at .12 – This is a classic.
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 6:57 am
In a German interview,Kyler Hardy said EQT actually had 14 targets,not just 9.Maybe 5 of them had weaker signatures.
Comment by jim niles — September 2, 2015 @ 7:05 am
Everyone should look at MZI.V today. News out and big vol.
The Company intends to use the proceeds from the private placement for general working capital purposes and to close on certain acquisitions. While the Company intends to use the funds for the foregoing purposes, there may be circumstances where, for sound business reasons, funds may be reallocated.
Notice the “close on certain Acquisitions”
Plural Acquisition sssss
Hhhhhhhhh
Comment by BigRig — September 2, 2015 @ 7:09 am
Yes Jim, Hardy did say this. 9 are strong. Just talked with PR. Closing of the PP is day to day and hour by hour. Just waiting for the paperwork to be signed by the investors. The 3 day clear does not apply on the insider selling for the PP due to the fact they have margin accts. which makes sense. You are going to see things happen pretty fast after it closes. Read in between the lines if you will. There are a couple surprises coming in September that will give this some national attention. When you look at how this has held up above the PP pricing in a bad market it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the interest and involvement is present. The key thing here right now is the market is not even aware of some events going on with EQT. Looking forward to this into next week.
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 7:38 am
Wow, just off the printing press. Some of you are probably familiar with Alphastox.
They just did an article update and it just got posted on Alphastox.
I don’t know how to get it from there to here, if someone knows how, go for it.
This is a must read:
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 7:45 am
300k buy just came through at .13 – Geesh. Already nearing 2.5 mil on the day. It’s not hard to figure that we will be seeing some 5+ mil share days coming up.
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 8:02 am
Dave- who is “they” in post 43? EQT?
Comment by D4 — September 2, 2015 @ 8:33 am
D4 – alphastox
Comment by dave — September 2, 2015 @ 8:49 am
There you go Dave.
Thank you
http://my.alphastox.com/alphastox-provides-an-update-on-equitas-resources-tsxveqt-2/
Comment by Jas — September 2, 2015 @ 10:59 am