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September 29, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,316 and $1,326 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is unchanged at $1,322…Silver is off a nickel at $19.12…Copper is up slightly at $2.18…Crude Oil has added another $1 a barrel to $48.09 after yesterday’s 5% move on OPEC deal-making, while the U.S. Dollar Index is relatively flat at 95.45

The third and final read on 2nd quarter U.S. GDP showed the economy grew slightly faster than previously estimated…the Commerce Department this morning said GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2…meanwhile, pending home sales fell 2.4% in August, marking the 3rd straight monthly decline according to the National Association of Realtors

Division among Federal Reserve policymakers on when to raise U.S. interest rates seems to have sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by officials from the central bank…

Barclays Plc today:  Commodities will probably see a broad-based recovery next year after what’s expected to be an unusually strong performance in the final quarter as demand improves, investors plow funds into raw materials and the dollar shows signs of weakness…

The Bloomberg Commodities Index has dropped in the 4th quarter for 4 straight years…

Oil Update – An OPEC Agreement To Consider An Agreeement

OPEC’s surprise production cut proposal yesterday prompted the largest daily gains in Crude prices since April, and the rally has continued today…major questions remain including whether the cartel’s members would stand by an agreement and whether the cuts would be enough to dent a market still brimming with surplus Crude…the Saudis, however, do appear to be throwing in the towel on a strategy they undertook in late 2014 to drive prices lower, put the squeeze on competitors and increase their own market share in the process…

How much each country will produce is to be decided at the next formal OPEC meeting in November, when an invitation to join cuts could also be extended to non-OPEC countries such as Russia…it is not clear when the agreement would come into effect, how compliance with the agreement will be verified, what new individual quotas for countries would be and how long the deal would remain in force…

Oil Drilling

The group agreed on a preliminary proposal in Algeria yesterday to cut its collective output to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels a day, down from the levels of 33.2 million barrels a day in August, national Oil ministers said…

It’s notable, however, that Iran, Libya and Nigeria will request exemptions until reaching certain levels of production…the problem of surpluses will not be solved if these 3 countries were to take full advantage of their capacities…

Goldman Sachs said the OPEC deal could add $7 to $10 to Oil prices in the first half of next year…

The Venture says Oil started a new bull market earlier this year…

Gold-Silver Producers’ All-In-Sustaining Costs (AISC) Continue To Decline 

One Canadian bank sees a perfect storm of profits for Gold and Silver miners as precious metals prices increase and costs continue to fall…

In a recent report, analysts at CIBC World Markets described 2016 as a “transformative year” as more than 50% of the bank’s Gold and all of its Silver stocks are expected to see a reduction in AISC compared to 2015…the reduction in costs comes as Gold has seen its price rise this year by more than 25% while Silver has surged almost 40%…

In its report, the bank is forecasts average AISC for Gold producers under its coverage of around $899 an ounce, down from the 2015 average costs of $907…the bank sees an average profit margin of $364 an ounce, up from $243 an ounce seen in 2015

According to the analysts, the mining companies that will see the best margins in the current environment are: Alamos (AGI, TSX), Acacia (ACA, LSE), Centerra (CG, TSX), Barrick (ABX, TSX), B2Gold (BTO, TSX) and New Gold (NGD, TSX)…

Kirkland Lake Gold (KLG, TSX) And Newmarket Gold (NMI, TSX) Merge

A major merger in the Gold sector announced this morning – Kirkland Lake Gold (KLG, TSX) and Newmarket Gold (NMI, TSX) have struck an agreement to join forces, creating a mid-tier Gold company with a market cap in excess of $2 billion and producing over 500,000 ounces per year…existing Kirkland Lake and Newmarket shareholders will own approximately 57% and 43% of the combined company, respectively, on a fully-diluted in-the-money basis…

The combination of Macassa and Fosterville will form the production backbone of a new mid-tier, high quality Gold producer with low cost production and strong free cash flow generation…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. Gainey Capital (GNC, TSX-V) – contrarian time!…

2. Two diversified attractive producers added to our “Buy List”…

3. Eric Sprott jumps in on Nova Scotia Gold revival (bullish for OX, TSX-V)…

4. Pure Gold (PGM, TSX-V) extends drill program by 26,000 m at Madsen…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

11 Comments

  1. Looks like GGI going back to .05

    Comment by dave — September 29, 2016 @ 11:30 am

  2. Just have to buy more then.

    Comment by Laddy — September 29, 2016 @ 2:59 pm

  3. GGI down to .065, with no apparent good news on the horizon and tax loss selling on the horizon I expect you could be right on your call dave.

    Comment by Danny — September 29, 2016 @ 7:54 pm

  4. Hoping so.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 29, 2016 @ 8:11 pm

  5. My entry at 0.13 wasn’t as good I was hoping for, unfortunately.

    Comment by Kalkan — September 30, 2016 @ 4:47 am

  6. Hang in there, hopefully this jump in gold will help everyone..

    Comment by Laddy — September 30, 2016 @ 4:51 am

  7. BLO looking strong pre-market this morning; has had 2 powerful Fridays in a row and could be ready for a breakout into the 30’s.

    Silver leading Gold to the upside today, very positive.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 30, 2016 @ 5:07 am

  8. JON: i guess September is relatively ‘flat’ for TSX VEnture….we still got 2.5 months to get to a 1000? any comments? thanks so much! Oil rising!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 30, 2016 @ 5:23 am

  9. Also, please take a look at WER. Almost ready to comeback to trading…marijuana,etc.

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 30, 2016 @ 5:25 am

  10. A decent though not spectacular month for Venture in September, Steven1…the key thing is, the Venture is the top performer among North American exchanges this month.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 30, 2016 @ 5:35 am

  11. Deutsche bank spikes bc they may be nearing a settlement with DOJ for $5.4B but that’s still 1/3 of the market cap. Doubt the excitement will last long.

    Comment by Sameer — September 30, 2016 @ 8:37 am

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