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February 25, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,204 and $1,213 so far today…as of 7:15 am Pacific, bullion is up $4 an ounce at $1,205…Silver is up 21 cents at $16.52…Copper is off a penny at $2.61 after a strong session yesterday…Crude Oil is flat at $49.21 while the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped more than one-tenth of a point to 94.32

The end of the Lunar New Year holiday period in China and other parts of Asia has brought some traders back into the Gold market, giving bullion a modest lift…overnight premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange hovered around $4 with good demand evident throughout the entire first session after the week long break…

Interesting words from Randgold Resources‘ (GOLD, Nasdaq) chief Mark Bristow who told Kitco in an interview that he sees an increasing number of merger and acquisition opportunities appearing in the mining industry. “The market is stressed, I don’t think it’s there yet but it’s getting more stressed by the day,” he said. “Never have I seen an opportunity like I feel is appearing in the market for M&A before, in 30 years.”

Ontario Moves Down, Quebec Moves Up In Fraser Institute’s Rankings

The Fraser Institute has published its annual mining survey, ranking Finland as the world’s best mining jurisdiction…Saskatchewan came second followed by Nevada, Manitoba and Western Australia…

Five Canadian jurisdictions finished in the top 10 globally – Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec (6), Newfoundland and Labrador (8) and the Yukon (9)…the report said Quebec has rebounded after a 3-year period of increased red tape, higher royalties and regulatory uncertainty (B.C. is ranked 28th, up slightly from last year)…

“In addition to being blessed with an abundance of mineral potential, Saskatchewan gets credit for having a government with a transparent and productive approach to mining policy,” said Kenneth Green, the institute’s senior director of energy and natural resources and director of the survey.  “The province offers a competitive taxation regime, good scientific support, efficient permitting procedures and clarity around land claims.”

The uncertainty created by the Ontario Liberal government in its mishandling of First Nations consultation were cited by the Fraser Institute in its choice to drop the province from 9th place to 23rd…much of the blame is being placed on the regulatory and policy confusion created within the resource industry stemming from the province’s amendments to the Mining Act and in dealing with First Nations issues…

“In Ontario, the new Mining Act amendments regarding First Nations consultation have resulted in complete incomprehensibility of rights on all sides,” said Green.

By the way, Malaysia ranks as the least attractive jurisdiction for mining investment, followed by Hungary, Kenya, Honduras, Solomon Islands, Egypt, Guatemala, Bulgaria, Nigeria, and Sudan…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Trading in China’s Shanghai Composite resumed overnight and it closed 17 points lower at 3230 despite some better-than-expected economic data…the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.1 from January’s 49.7 reading…

Europe

European markets are slightly lower in late trading overseas…investors have taken a breather from recent concerns over Greece…Athens yesterday presented a list of reforms that have met the approval of its creditors and euro zone neighbors, meaning Greece has secured a 4-month extension to its bailout program that was due to end in a matter of days…however, the IMF and the ECB who oversee the country’s bailout said the reform plans do need greater clarity…

North America

The Dow is down 12 points through the first 45 minutes of trading…investors are digesting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress which began yesterday and continues today in front of the House Financial Services Committee…yesterday she was effective at hitting the ball down the middle of the fairway, satisfying both doves and hawks as she stated that the central bank was not in a rush to hike interest rates but the economy continues to improve and at some point the Fed will initiate a hike…FedSpeak at its finest…

The TSX has gained 42 points while the Venture is up 2 points as of 7:15 am Pacific

NioCorp Developments Ltd. (NB, TSX-V) Update

NioCorp Developments (NB, TSX-V) released an updated NI-43101 resource estimate this morning for its Elk Creek Niobium deposit…as a result of positive indications from the company’s continuing metallurgical testing and development program, Titanium (TiO2) and Scandium (Sc) have been added to the mineral resource statement…both of these metals can be recovered with simple additions to the existing process flowsheet, according to NioCorp, and would provide additional revenue streams that would complement the planned production of Ferroniobium…the company is currently assessing these prospective revenue contributions, and plans to announce the results of a preliminary economic assessment for the project shortly…

NB is responding well to the news, up 2 pennies at 91 cents through the first 45 minutes of trading…John identified an important technical breakout in NB recently, and it continues to look strong as shown in this 2+ year weekly chart…

NB1(3)

Gold-Dow Comparative 

Gold and the Dow have been moving in opposite directions this month with that trend even more pronounced than it was in January…we’ll see if this continues into March which historically is 1 of Gold’s weakest months of the year…

The Dow has confirmed a breakout above resistance at 18041, and the the next measured Fib. resistance is 18659…bullion has so far managed to hold critical support between $1,180 and $1,200, and Friday’s close to finish the month will be important…

DOW8

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

Both the TSX Gold Index and the Venture have held up well this month in the face of Gold’s weakness, suggesting that bullion may indeed avoid a technically-driven free-fall…

Below is a 6-month daily chart for the TSX Gold Index…John identified 3 Fib. support levels on an anticipated pullback – 175, 166 and 158…so far, the first level has held with the Index consolidating around 175 (5 points above the rising 50-day moving average) over the last 6 sessions…

What’s interesting about this chart is how the Slow Stochastics (SS) is at oversold levels similar to what was seen just prior to the November and January moves in Gold

A strong case can be made here that the Gold Index is gearing up for another move to the upside…

SPTGD4(1)

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM, NYSE) Update

Evidence of a fresh push higher by Gold stocks is illustrated in a short-term chart for Newmont Mining (NEM, NYSE) which remains the only Gold company in the S&P 500Newmont is making good on its commitment to improve operating costs and efficiencies, and the stock has been rewarded as a result…This 3-month daily chart for NEM confirms the bullishness we’re seeing in the TSX Gold Index…a breakout has occurred here above a 3-week pennant and Fib. resistance at $25.14

NEM1

Keystone Chaos

President Obama fulfilled a promise yesterday – he used his power to thwart the Republican-controlled Congress by vetoing a bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline…

“The Presidential power to veto legislation is one I take seriously,” the President stated.  “But I also take seriously my responsibility to the American people. And because this act of Congress conflicts with established executive branch procedures and cuts short thorough consideration of issues that could bear on our national interest – including our security, safety, and environment – it has earned my veto.”

Yes, the Canada-U.S. economic relationship and North American energy security have “earned” this President’s veto…

Pipeline

President Obama has more than pleased his left-wing followers as he aims to secure some hogwash “climate change legacy”, putting that ahead of the most significant bilateral economic relationship in the world…not only is he offside with the majority of American opinion on this issue, and the will of Congress, but the President’s Keystone veto is yet 1 more example of his incredible indifference toward Canada ever since he took office – he simply doesn’t grasp the strategic importance of the continental relationship (it’s also not surprising that Obama also has 1 of the worst personal relationships any U.S. President has ever had with the leaders of both Canada and Israel, American’s 2 greatest friends)…he can’t even make friends in Congress – what’s wrong with this guy?

John Boehner, Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, correctly called the veto a “national embarrassment”.  He added, “It’s embarrassing when Russia and China are plowing ahead on 2 massive pipelines and we can’t get this one no-brainer of a project off the ground.”

The Vice-President of the U.S. Chamer of Commerce’s Institute for 21st Century Energy, Matt Koch, said this:  “I think you (Canadians) should take this personally.  We have had a long relationship with your country as far as trade, been key allies for decades or centuries, and we have tried to highlight the importance of the relationship at the U.S. Chamber.  Some of it has been caught up in U.S. politics.  But we think that Canada is being singled out.”

The “activists”, however, who have such a twisted ideology and are using Keystone as a rallying cry against their hatred of Oil in general, couldn’t be more pleased with the President…

“This veto is conclusive proof that activism works,” 350.org executive director May Boeve said in a statement yesterday. “After 4 years of rallies, marches, sit-ins, and civil disobedience, we’re thrilled to see President Obama take an important first step by vetoing this love letter to Big Oil. As the President himself has argued, Keystone XL would worsen climate change, threaten the safety of farmers and landowners in America’s heartland, and create essentially no long-term jobs – all so a Canadian Oil company gets to ship dirty tar sands to the rest of the world.”

Yes, the “wisdom” of May Boeve (Al Gore and so many others) on a mission to “save the climate” is guiding this President…

Of course 1 of the many facts 350.org and the American President don’t get is that Crude Oil from Canada is replacing Crude Oils from other suppliers that have greenhouse gas emissions profiles as high as Canadian Oil sands, or even higher, such as traditional suppliers Mexico and Venezuela…data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) backs this up…since Canada started producing from its Oil sands in 2003, imports from these 2 formerly large suppliers have declined sharply…EIA reports that the combined volume of Crude imported from Mexico and Venezuela to the Gulf Coast and Midwest refining regions in 2013 was 1 million barrels per day lower than in 2003, while Crude imported from Canada was 900,000 barrels per day higher, almost a 1-for-1 replacement…

2016 and the next Presidential elections can’t come fast enough…

Note:  John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in NB.

48 Comments

  1. Jon – 2016 and the next Presidential elections can’t come fast enough…

    Bert – Have you sent for your passport yet ?

    Comment by Bert — February 25, 2015 @ 8:00 am

  2. Dan

    I got a feeling & when i get a feeling, you can take it to the bank.

    Comment by Bert — February 25, 2015 @ 6:50 am

    Bert

    What kind of feeling is it?

    Comment by Dan — February 25, 2015 @ 8:13 am

  3. is it a GGI feeling Bert

    Comment by brian — February 25, 2015 @ 9:22 am

  4. Is it this kind of felling?

    I’ve got a feeling, a feeling deep inside
    Oh yeah, oh yeah, that’s right
    I’ve got a feeling, a feeling I can’t hide
    No no no, oh no, oh no
    Yeah yeah I’ve got a feeling yeah

    Oh please believe me, I’d hate to miss the train
    Oh yeah, yeah, oh yeah

    Comment by Ivan — February 25, 2015 @ 9:38 am

  5. Jon and Steve mentioned a major was on site. Now how many times on site, how many days, did I forget to mention MAJOR a leading international silver and gold producer Dan buy the 30 pack.

    Comment by freddy — February 25, 2015 @ 10:16 am

  6. PDAC Conference Mar 1-4 in Toronto. Anyone going? GGI will be there. Booth #3153

    Comment by Frank — February 25, 2015 @ 10:35 am

  7. GGI. Mentioned in a resource world article: “Great Mineral Discoveries” page 12. Other companies profiled by Resource World here as well.

    http://resourceworld.uberflip.com/i/460990/7

    posted on GGI’s website today

    Cheers

    Comment by Frank — February 25, 2015 @ 10:41 am

  8. Ggi news out, today

    Comment by Tombc — February 25, 2015 @ 1:22 pm

  9. My feeling vs John’s chart

    Garibaldi Resources Corp GGI:TSXV – News Alert

    Garibaldi signs LOI to send La Patilla mill feed to Gainey Capital’s processing facility

    Comment by Bert — February 25, 2015 @ 1:26 pm

  10. rodadero results to come next week.lift off should start tomorrow.

    Comment by tombc — February 25, 2015 @ 1:42 pm

  11. Drill core and results just in time for PDAC, interesting (and what a coincidence)…La Patilla getting pushed toward production – locals have been hauling gold away from this property for quite a while now, time for GGI to seize the opportunity here which they’re doing…the other thing to consider with La Patilla is the possibility of a follow-up major hit after LP-14 which was 3 g/t over 30 m with 82 g/t Au over 1 m – system appears to have high-grade gold shoots and if they drill into one of these, which they could also at Rodadero, look out…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 25, 2015 @ 1:47 pm

  12. Great news and more to come! Purchased another 20,000 GGI shares today. Looks like it may pay off.

    Comment by Dan — February 25, 2015 @ 1:53 pm

  13. Good guess Jon, this next week is going to make it All worth the wait, And not to forget the grizzly waiting Around the corner.

    Comment by Tombc — February 25, 2015 @ 2:03 pm

  14. maybe they’ll be presenting in the core shack like rainbow did.sorry, just kidding.No rainbow here.I think we have the pot o’ gold.

    Comment by kc — February 25, 2015 @ 2:07 pm

  15. Out of 10, i rate the NR a 5, as far as the stock moving up tomorrow, although
    it would please me if it did.

    They signed a LOI to deliver mineralized material from point a to b, yet
    they end the NR by possibly taking away any market optimism.
    Quote
    Investors are cautioned that the planned processing of mineralized material
    from La Patilla is not based on a National Instrument 43-101 mineral resource
    or reserve estimate, preliminary economic assessment, prefeasibility study or
    feasibility study. As a result, there is no assurance that Garibaldi will be
    able to economically extract mineralization from La Patilla.
    Unquote

    Sorry friends, but the market is very finicky…

    Comment by Bert — February 25, 2015 @ 2:14 pm

  16. Ok Jon, are you now going to admit it was Rodadero that you visited? And when will you report on it?

    Comment by Dan — February 25, 2015 @ 2:15 pm

  17. Bert,
    They have to disclose the risk because no 43-101 or PFS was done. Standard protocol. They must believe there will be money made.

    Comment by Dan — February 25, 2015 @ 3:10 pm

  18. I guess what I meant Bert, we may see a slight tic up on anticipation of results from rodadero next week as they stated,smart move to generate cash flow, and I would think their going into PDAC with more than that. Of course wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong!

    Comment by Tombc — February 25, 2015 @ 3:31 pm

  19. You’re correct, Dan. Dr. Craig Gibson is highly respected for his work in Mexico, and of course was a huge part of the Newstrike discovery in another state. La Patilla was a property he personally tracked down a few years back, specifically to bring into production quickly and cost effectively. Clean material, all at and very close to surface, plus deeper potential of course. This is a great 2nd situation to have in Mexico behind the flagship which is now Rodadero.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 25, 2015 @ 3:42 pm

  20. @Bert

    No Jon has not sent for his passport….but he has sent for YOURS!!!!!(LOL)

    Comment by John BMR — February 25, 2015 @ 3:45 pm

  21. Dan

    I realize they had to disclose, but because of what they
    disclosed, may be the dominant paragraph in that release
    and MAY hinder an uptick. Whatever, i still believe in this
    play & as Tombc reminded us, the results are next week & who knows,
    maybe something in between. Even Jon’s response to the NR was somewhat
    mild, considering his past optimism. That’s how i read it anyway. Good
    luck !

    Comment by Bert — February 25, 2015 @ 3:48 pm

  22. Venture almost breaks 700 today. Seems like 700 is stiff resistance. Will it eventually break out?

    Comment by Tony T — February 25, 2015 @ 3:52 pm

  23. Wish all Ggi holders the best but that was venture fluff at it’s finest right there.

    Comment by Franky g — February 25, 2015 @ 4:40 pm

  24. You guys should be looking at the company they’re going to be sending the mill feed to Gainey Capital GNC

    Comment by vette350 — February 25, 2015 @ 6:44 pm

  25. any updates on WRR??

    Comment by STEVEN1 — February 25, 2015 @ 6:46 pm

  26. I do not buy into this major looking at Ggi stuff for two reasons. First being that the sp would be exploding if this were the case. Look at the sp and the volume, says it all. 100% impossible that news of that kind would not leak. Second reason being that they have barely drilled the property. Majors do not run around buying up properties with just a few drill holes. Just does not happen this way.
    Also IMO from what I have witnessed in my time watching the venture is that 99 out of 100 venture companies are not to be trusted. Ggi expecting results months ago and still as of today not releasing any is a big teller. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all the honest folks invested but the recurring pattern is here for sure. That being said they probably will pump this up to a point where a bit of profit can be made but don’t fall into the hype of holding this long term

    Comment by Franky g — February 25, 2015 @ 6:51 pm

  27. GGI will be generating cash flow immediately. There are not many juniors who are doing that. No further dilution and there is still the possibility of a major taking an interest at some point. Maybe they will use the cash generated to bring in an outside drilling company to speed things up at Rodadero.

    Comment by Tom UK — February 25, 2015 @ 6:51 pm

  28. By Friday, I suspect, Steven…I believe they’re very close to getting the ball really moving, and we’re assembling helpful information for our readers on the targets they’re aiming at. March should be huge for this one, so be prepared.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 25, 2015 @ 7:02 pm

  29. Jon, did you get the email i sent you over the weekend on WRR?

    Comment by dave — February 25, 2015 @ 8:44 pm

  30. To say generating cash flow is a falsely. They will be attempting to. No pfs. No 43101. No timeline. Just a loi. No guarantee here at all. Good luck to all
    Jon I see xme broke above 6 today. Any thoughts on that?

    Comment by Franky g — February 25, 2015 @ 9:37 pm

  31. good morning BMR BOYS heron resourcesHER TXC will be attending the 2015PDAC conference MARCH 1-4 BOOTH #2153on MARCH3 at 3:20PM HERON’SMD and CEO MR.WAYNE TAYLOR CORPORATE PRESENTATION FORUM for investors ,BASE METALS 2 SESSION ROOM 803 regards walter emond

    Comment by walter emond — February 26, 2015 @ 2:05 am

  32. Franky, we have a chart on XME, but let me be very emphatic about something – what you stated is completely false. No company requires a 43-101 or a prefeasibility to move to a production stage on a property. On top of that, this is Mexico, even better. In the case of La Patilla, gold has been taken off this property consistently for decades, right to this day. The artisanal miners who are working this – they’re an excellent labor pool for GGI.

    The property was acquired by Craig Gibson, who knows plenty more about how to make things work down there than you or me, specifically to lift into the production stage very quickly and efficiently without an expensive prefeasibility or major capital costs. It’s a simple property to start the extraction process with (it can be as easy as shovel and truck), as GGI is now. The initial stage of moving material to the processing center will give valuable additional info regarding metallurgy, grades, recoveries, etc., and then things can be ramped up on successful results. And there are other straightforward methods to employ to efficiently access certain deeper parts of this shallow system to target really sweet grades. La Patilla has low sulphide content, so the material is clean and recoveries should be high. So you need to have your facts straight and know the property you’re dealing with, the location and the people behind it before you make a post like that.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 2:43 am

  33. jon is completly right with everything he said in post 32. Jon, answer my post 29, im asking for the 3 rd time . Did you get the email i sent you over the weekend on WRR.

    Comment by dave — February 26, 2015 @ 2:52 am

  34. Dave, my apologies, I’ve been traveling and extremely busy and haven’t caught up on everything, including some questions from here such as yours. Yes I did, thank you – very interesting and helpful. Location is such a key thing.

    Comment by BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 2:58 am

  35. John – No Jon has not sent for his passport….but he has sent for YOURS!!!!!(LOL)

    Bert – Dear John,
    Oh how i hate to write,
    But i must let you know tonight,
    That Hillary Clinton, not only will be arranging my passport. but my flight.
    But John, my cyber friend,
    I am depending on you to chart my budget, to ensure i don’t overspend.

    Comment by Bert — February 26, 2015 @ 3:27 am

  36. Can anyone speculate (not you Franky) as to how much cash will be generated per annum from the Patilla operation? The PR suggests that it could be a long term agreement.

    Regarding drilling at the Grizzly, I’m guessing that they will use around $1mil of the cash raised, which will give around 5,000m of core sample (assuming $200/m). At around 60m per day that is less than 3 months drilling for 1 rig.

    Comment by Tom UK — February 26, 2015 @ 5:52 am

  37. Tom, you do a back-of-the-envelope calculation re: La Patilla based on last year’s drill results, and at this point I would compare La Patilla to Richmont’s open-pit Monique deposit in Quebec which was a valuable small producer for them and easy to exploit (shovel and truck)…La Patilla has the advantage of the distinct possibility of high-grade shoots which you often see in Mexico…20,000 ounces at Monique gave Richmont some very helpful cash flow and profit…do the math…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 6:08 am

  38. I’m no expert but assuming gold stays around $1,200/oz then let’s say that GGI walks away $600 profit, they will get $12mil for 20,000 ozs. Open pit mining at shallow depths and a mill only 40 miles away should result in low cost of extraction, I’ve gone for $600/oz which is off the top of my head but allows for the other party a share of the profit. I hope I’m not way off, maybe Regoci will help fill in the blanks at some point.

    Comment by Tom UK — February 26, 2015 @ 6:31 am

  39. Jon, WRR, so I gather you saw the 3 lode mines for sale in Nevada by this geologist and on 2 of them he just list au,ag,cu. – But on the shamrock in Lyons county, he list HIGH GRADE GOLD. WRR right in that vicinity. I am so looking forward to March on this one.

    Comment by dave — February 26, 2015 @ 6:56 am

  40. We will agree to disagree Jon. Everything I stated is true
    Sidon had miners on their property for decades too and tell how that turned out? And again if this was such an easy property to take Into production, why wasn’t everyone company out there fighting over it? Just some questions one must ask themselves no?
    Also Jon yes the facts are that for anythibg to be taken seriously by the market you need a 43101 etc. Great to get excited Jon my friend, but keep it real

    Comment by Franky g — February 26, 2015 @ 7:10 am

  41. Franky, you’re way off the mark again comparing Sidon to La Patilla. Sorry, but that’s actually a ridiculous comparison. Drill results turned up nothing at Sidon’s property, though it was a good spec play during the 2010 excitement in that part of the world. La Patilla has the drill results. The drill rig, as always, is the truth machine. And Dr. Craig Gibson is one of the best in the business down there. He’s a conservative geo and if he got this to put into production, he had good reasons to back that up. He has been proven right with the drilling.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 7:20 am

  42. Jon I will not fight with you. Just stating the obvious here. Look at the markets reaction here! Explain that. Please don’t say it’s just taking a while to digest with the heavy hitters

    Comment by Franky g — February 26, 2015 @ 7:43 am

  43. I’m stating the obvious, too, Franky, which is that your comments were from left field with statements not backed up by facts. And GGI is looking just fine today. Perhaps you haven’t noticed, but unlike the markets of 2010 and 2011, reaction to news from any company – especially when it’s positive – generally builds over the course of a few trading days. Countless examples of that with many stocks in the junior resource sector over the last couple of years. We’re in a different environment. Knowing that, this creates excellent opportunities for investors who are on top of things.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 7:57 am

  44. The issue I have with GGI is Liquidity. I am also puzzled at why the price is still where it is? You would think the volume and price would be much higher given the catalysts. Don’t get me wrong; I am long on GGI but I reduced my position to half of what I had to a more comfortable one(Strictly because of liquidity). I am not a big fan of having a PR being released late in the day (After market close) but I am sure you can argue both ways.
    I believe in the management and feel this will pay out in the long run if patient. But I would like to see more Liquidity over the next few days.

    Comment by Joe — February 26, 2015 @ 8:04 am

  45. Joe, gold stocks are not in vogue at this moment. That is why GGI is trading at these levels. A couple of years ago GGI would have been a $1.00+ stock easily. Once investors fall in love with the sector again, GGI will be one of the first stocks to move higher. Bert said it perfectly in one of his earlier posts… the market is fickle… you have to WOW it in order to get a jump in price.

    Comment by chris — February 26, 2015 @ 8:12 am

  46. GGI may wow the market next week. Yesterday’s news was only a teaser imo.

    Comment by Dan — February 26, 2015 @ 8:24 am

  47. Nearly 100,000 volume and through resistance at .17 is a very good start after 2 hours today, Dan.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 26, 2015 @ 8:25 am

  48. @ Jon, I agree with your assessment of La Patilla, I have met with the GGI group many times and I can safely say the moves they make are very calculated. They must feel pretty confident about the cash flow potential to send some material for processing…. Peter MeGaw, Adviser to GGI and part of GNC’s exploration team I think was instrumental in this agreement… I think he knows what he is doing and whats best for BOTH companies.

    Comment by Bucky — February 26, 2015 @ 8:36 am

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