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April 3, 2016

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead

TSX Venture Exchange and Gold

The Venture has climbed in 8 out of the last 9 weeks as it also posted its best March, a gain of 7.2%, since 2009.  Not once has the Venture failed to have a successful year when the month of March has been strong.  Friday’s trading was particularly encouraging as the Index shrugged off weakness in Gold and other commodities, ending slightly positive for the session.

Over the next couple of days we’ll be posting some important charts that demonstrate why the Venture is on track for its best year since 2010.  The bear market is over, and we’re now in a period when we can invest in the Venture with confidence.  Selectivity as always is critical, but wise investing and trading should yield solid if not spectacular returns this year.  Fundamentally, a few things are in the Venture’s favor in 2016: 1) a dovish Fed; 2) a weak U.S. dollar; and 3) a bullish Gold market.  Furthermore, it appears Oil bottomed early in the year.

The U.S. dollar went on a record run between the summer of 2014 and the end of 2015, but the trend has changed since December and it’s critical to understand that.  There will be rallies in the Dollar Index but those rallies will continue to be sold into.  The chart has clearly turned negative as Janet Yellen has made it quite clear that the Fed will error on the side of caution with regard to any interest rate increases through the balance of 2016, a sharp departure from her position just 4 months ago.  The current U.S. political climate, which is not going to change anytime soon, is also dollar bearish and Gold bullish.  Historically, the evidence is overwhelming that the greenback and the Venture move in opposite directions.  As an investor you will greatly enhance your chances of success in the junior exploration market when you’re active at a time when the greenback is in a downtrend, as is the case now.

What we’ve seen in the Venture since late January is the first wave in a new bull cycle (most investors don’t usually accept or recognize the start of a new bull or bear market until well after it has started).  At some point during Q2, we do expect a modest pullback after the powerful advance from the 466 all-time low of January 20This morning’s chart will show you the most reliable “correction clue” to watch for.  Any weakness, though, would be an accumulation opportunity for the next wave up.  There has been a dramatic improvement in the technical health of this market as John’s latest charts have shown, supporting the thesis that a long-term bear cycle has finally run its course.

In today’s Week In Review And A Look Ahead

1.  Key Venture levels to watch…

2.  Dollar Index – bears are in control…

3.  Gold enjoys its best quarter in more than 25 years – where to from here?…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

12 Comments

  1. Gold Bullion declares distributions of Takara units

    2016-04-01 19:36 ET – News Release

    Mr. Frank Basa reports

    GOLD BULLION DECLARES DIVIDEND

    Gold Bullion Development Corp.’s board of directors has approved a stock dividend, with the first stock distribution payable on April 26, 2016, to shareholders of record of its common shares on April 12, 2016.

    In September, 2015, the company announced the closing of a transaction with Takara Resources Inc., whereby Gold Bullion transferred its then wholly owned subsidiary, Castle Silver Mines Inc., including its 100-per-cent interest in the 3,300-hectare Castle silver mine property in Ontario, to Takara in exchange for 10 million units of Takara. The Takara units are to be issued to the company in equal amounts of 2.5 million units. The first issuance was payable upon the closing of the share purchase agreement, and the remaining issuances are to occur on each anniversary from the closing date for the subsequent three years.

    Each unit comprises one common share in the capital of Takara and one common share purchase warrant, with each warrant entitling the holder to acquire one common share of Takara on or before 12 months from the date of issuance of the Takara units at an exercise price of 10 cents per common share.

    As mentioned in the company s news release of Sept. 15, 2015, upon the closing of the share purchase agreement, Gold Bullion had agreed, subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval, to distribute, pro rata, the Takara units received and to be received pursuant to the share purchase agreement to Gold Bullion’s shareholders of record, subject to a regulatory four-month hold period commencing from the date of issuance of the Takara units.

    In accordance with the terms of the share purchase agreement, Takara will not be obligated to issue any Takara units if such issuance results in Gold Bullion holding more than 20 per cent of the then issued and outstanding common shares in the capital of Takara. Any exception would require Takara to first obtain shareholder approval. For greater certainty, Takara may issue the Takara units in smaller amounts and as such delay the scheduled issuance of the Takara units to avoid the result that issuing such Takara units would create a new control person as per TSX Venture Exchange policies and the definition of the term contained therein.

    The company will begin the distribution of the Takara units to its shareholders of record in accordance with the following terms:

    2.5 million Takara units to be distributed on each of the following dates (subject to the company being in possession of said Takara units on each date):
    April 26, 2016;
    April 26, 2017;
    April 26, 2018;
    April 26, 2019;
    With respect to the stock distribution to occur on April 26, 2016, the ex dividend date will be April 10, 2016 — from this date and forward, new shareholders will not receive the dividend;
    With respect to the stock distribution to occur on April 26, 2016, the holder-of-record date will be April 12, 2016 — the date on which the shareholders who are to receive the dividend are recognized;
    For stock distributions to occur on subsequent distribution dates in 2017, 2018 and 2019, separate ex dividend and holder-of-record dates will be established in each of those years.
    We seek Safe Harbor.

    © 2016 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 8:31 am

  2. From the GBB forum (Gold Bullion Development Corp) last comments by Frank Basa (CEO) of GBB:

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    01 Apr 2016, 17:28

    @ rio, board

    The meeting was one of the best meetings we have ever had with them. As it stands we have two items to clarify which are relatively minor but they need this info for their files before we can be issued the CA.

    per/ F. Basa

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    02 Apr 2016, 10:34

    @ lindam, board

    Yes it can be resolved quickly and they indicated a willingness to act promptly once in a position to do so. Our legal expert will advise next week on what to do with the court date.

    per/ F. Basa

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 8:37 am

  3. GBB info on Takara (TKK/ Castle Silver Mine) share distribution:

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    02 Apr 2016, 10:29

    @ lindam

    This is just an approximation, the specifics will be calculated by the transfer agent accordingly. Over the four years we have 10 million units (10 million shares plus warrants).

    Dividing by o/s shares of GBB equals ~ 28.6 units of TKK/Castle per 1000 shares of GBB held, over the four year period. First allotment then would be that number divided by 4 equating to ~7 units per 1000.

    per/ F. Basa

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 8:39 am

  4. To create an free account with GBB:

    goldbulliondevelopmentcorp.com/en/forum/login.aspx

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 8:40 am

  5. I hope you guys are right about this being the beginning of a new bull for the venture. It’s been a really long 4 years!

    Comment by tony t — April 3, 2016 @ 10:20 am

  6. From the GBB forum (Gold Bullion Development Corp) last comments by Frank Basa (CEO) of GBB:

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    01 Apr 2016, 17:28

    @ rio, board

    The meeting was one of the best meetings we have ever had with them. As it stands we have two items to clarify which are relatively minor but they need this info for their files before we can be issued the CA.

    per/ F. Basa

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    02 Apr 2016, 10:34

    @ lindam, board

    Yes it can be resolved quickly and they indicated a willingness to act promptly once in a position to do so. Our legal expert will advise next week on what to do with the court date.

    per/ F. Basa

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 11:43 am

  7. GBB info on Takara (TKK/ Castle Silver Mine) share distribution:

    Forum
    Administrator
    (227 posts)
    02 Apr 2016, 10:29

    @ lindam

    This is just an approximation, the specifics will be calculated by the transfer agent accordingly. Over the four years we have 10 million units (10 million shares plus warrants).

    Dividing by o/s shares of GBB equals ~ 28.6 units of TKK/Castle per 1000 shares of GBB held, over the four year period. First allotment then would be that number divided by 4 equating to ~7 units per 1000.

    per/ F. Basa

    Comment by Arjan — April 3, 2016 @ 11:46 am

  8. Jon
    Re: GBB what are the chances of GBB doing a reverse split?

    thanks

    Comment by GREG — April 3, 2016 @ 12:31 pm

  9. Greg, this was a subject brought up by many people more than a year ago when we thought it was the right time to accumulate GBB again, and at the time I didn’t think a rollback was necessary. I still don’t believe it’s necessary. Yes, they have more than 300 million shares O/S, but a large project to go with it (and near-term cash flow once the CA is awarded) which is critical. I won’t predict it’ll never happen because anything is possible, but so far Frank’s reluctance to take that step has proven to be wise.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 3, 2016 @ 5:18 pm

  10. Jon: just throw in Clive Maund again….kind of opposite again still? clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3773

    Comment by STEVEN1 — April 4, 2016 @ 4:52 am

  11. Thanks, Steven1…John’s charts paint a bearish picture for the greenback in 2016, so any rallies will continue to be sold into…at the moment, there is strong support between 93 and 94 on the Dollar Index, and powerful resistance between 96-97…the likelihood of a serious breakdown below 93 this year (the “danger” zone as Clive correctly calls it) exceeds the likelihood of any breakout to the upside, just based on the chart patterns…2014-2015 was a bullish period for the Dollar Index, now we’re seeing the opposite…political factors in my view are VERY negative for the dollar – the one thing the market hates is uncertainty, and there is more uncertainty regarding the U.S. political scene right now that we have witnessed in our lifetimes (this can’t be lost on the Fed)…the market so far has not really reacted much to what’s unfolding (it’s simply assuming a Clinton victory) but it will…there could be absolute political upheaval down south…on top of that, Janet Yellen has taken a decidedly dovish monetary stance due to weak inflation and also seems keen on knocking the dollar down more…the dynamics just aren’t there to support a strong dollar this year…there are still a lot of dollar bulls who are hanging on, just like Gold bulls who were hanging on in 2012, but they’re going to get hurt…jumping on board the U.S. dollar right now is equivalent to a suicide mission unless you’re an experienced trader who knows how to play the swings in this downtrend…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — April 4, 2016 @ 5:03 am

  12. THANKS!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — April 4, 2016 @ 5:37 am

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