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It was a rough Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday for the CDNX as a big drop in Gold following the EU summit, combined with continued tax-loss selling, drove the Index down 9% over those three sessions.  Trading Thursday and Friday offered encouragement that next week could bring some Christmas cheer.  John updates the CDNX chart below, and we’ll examine the bigger picture for this market and Gold in our Week In Review tomorrow.

Gold has firmed up overnight (this is an early and abbreviated edition of Morning Musings due to travel commitments) and as of 2:05 am Pacific the yellow metal is ahead $21 an ounce at $1,592…a lot of fear has come into the Gold market in recent days and that’s always a good sign from a contrarian point of view…while Gold has certainly suffered some chart damage this week, and as a result could ultimately drop another $100, $200 or even $300 an ounce, what hasn’t changed is its long-term technical and fundamental bullish posture and we’ll get more into that in our Week In Review over the weekend…

As of 2:05 am Pacific, Silver is up 31 cents to $29.59…Copper is a nickel higher at $3.30…Crude Oil has gained 31 cents to $94.18 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 80.17…Dow futures are pointing to a positive open with overnight strength in Asia and some upward movement in Europe…

The TSX Gold Index is off 9.7% for the week while the CDNX has declined 9.2%…at 364, the Gold Index is trading at its August and October lows where it should find support (at least for now)…the HGD reverse ETF is in a technically overbought condition based on RSI (14) and Stochastics (14) while the opposite is the case for the HGU which hit its June low yesterday…the right side of the trade at this particular point is the opposite direction of the crowd in recent days…while it may be hard for some investors with beaten-down portfolios to appreciate this, some high quality Gold stocks have been marked down at fire sale prices just in time for Christmas…just one example is Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) which will be releasing what’s expected to be a very positive 43-101 updated resource estimate next month for its Springpole Project (5+ million ounces?) in Ontario…the technicals show a very oversold condition with the stock trading well below its still-rising 300-day moving average (SMA)…GCU closed yesterday at $1.83…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX), one of our favorite small producers, fell briefly below its rising 100-day SMA the other day which also occurred in early August and again in early October – two previous overall market bottoms…so if the action in Richmont tells us anything, the last couple of days have presented a Golden buying opportunity…yesterday, Richmont gained 16 cents to $11.12 following an outstanding 43-101 Wasamac resource update (2.7 million all-category ounces at a cut-off grade of 1.5 g/t Au)…Richmont is currently trading at support within a symmetrical triangle as John’s chart shows below…from a fundamental standpoint it’s just downright cheap given projected 2011 earnings, growing resources at Wasamac, and a 30% or more jump in production in 2012 to about 100,000 ounces…Richmont has enjoyed a great year and should continue to be a star performer…

John’s other chart this morning is on Cap-Ex Ventures (CEV, TSX-V) which broke an 8-session losing skid yesterday by gaining 3 pennies to close at 85 cents…watch Cap-Ex carefully today for the potential of a confirmed reversal as CEV could turn around quickly and enjoy a strong finish to the year with the 85-cent financing possibly closing next week…the fundamentals are strong…notice how it found support yesterday near its 200-day SMA…

Disappointing drill results from Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) yesterday sent the stock tumbling to just 2 pennies, seemingly an over-reaction given the fact this company has been around for so long and will undoubtedly recover…that’s the nature of the exploration business which is why it’s so risky…the drill rig is the truth machine and unfortunately the truth hurt for CUI…now begins the rebuilding process for Currie Rose but it’s encouraging to see they’re looking at picking up a new project in a different jurisdiction…President and CEO Harold Smith is a class act who has always hung on to his shares and no one is more devastated than him over the lack of positive results at Mabale Hills and Sekenke…with $1.1 million left in the treasury, CUI at least has something to work with to get back on track…

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy faces the prospect of “economic retraction, rising protectionism, isolation and “what happened in the 30’s [Depression]”, as European tensions again flared over suggestions in Paris that the UK’s credit rating should be downgraded before France’s…Christine Legarde was speaking after the governor of France’s central bank, in an attack on the “incomprehensible and irrational nature” of credit rating agencies, also angered London officials by suggesting the agencies should target the UK’s rating rather than France’s…“There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating,” Lagarde said in a speech at the U.S. State Department as reported by the Financial Times last night…“It is not a crisis that will be resolved by one group of countries taking action…it is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions, all categories of countries actually taking action”…

On a more positive note, the chief economist at the Standard Chartered Bank, Gerard Lyons, made these interesting comments as reported by Reuters yesterday…”By the second half, stronger growth across China and other emerging economies should pull up worldwide activity,” he stated…”It will be a recovery made in the East and felt in the West…if ever one needed evidence of a shift in the balance of power, this is it,” he wrote in the bank’s preview of 2012…as if to underscore the point, Fitch yesterday became the first ratings agency to raise its measures of Indonesia’s sovereign creditworthiness to investment grade – just as financial markets are waiting for rival Standard and Poor’s to downgrade most of the 17 members of the euro zone…”The upgrades reflect the country’s strong and resilient economic growth, low and declining public debt ratios, strengthened external liquidity and a prudent overall macro policy framework,” said Philip McNicholas, a Fitch director…

Moody’s Investors Services has turned its wary eye from the basket cases of Europe to Ontario, revising its outlook to “negative” from “stable” and issuing a stern warning on the province’s hefty debt burden that has been racked up by lefty Dalton McGuinty and his tax-and-spend-and-regulate Liberal government…the decision, Moody’s said in a statement, reflects the risks surrounding the province’s ability to meet its medium-term fiscal targets…it noted the recent slowing of economic growth…”The negative outlook on the province reflects the softening economic outlook, Ontario’s growing debt burden, and the extended time frame to achieving a balanced budget,” Moody’s analyst Jennifer Wong stated…

Gold is trying to find its footing after losing nearly $150 over the last three sessions and falling below its still-rising 200-day moving average (SMA) for the first time in nearly three years…ultimately, given the intensity of this sell-off, a low in the range of $1,450 – $1,475 during this correction is clearly very possible though a rebound first is probably in order…keep the big picture in mind, however…Gold’s long-term bull market is still very much intact…the correction we’ve seen from the summer high of just over $1,900 an ounce is certainly in line with previous corrections in recent years, the three largest of which have been 30% (March to October, 2008), 19% (May to October, 2006) and 14% (Dec. 2009 to February 2010)…the average time from the low in those three corrections to another new high was 7 months…this is no time to panic with regard to Gold…

As of 6:40 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $11 an ounce at $1,587…Silver is 12 cents higher at $29.08…Crude Oil has gained 21 cents to $95.16…Copper is up 4 pennies to $3.30 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-third of a point to 80.21…

The Dow and TSX are both up in early trading while the CDNX, which shed 147 points or 9% over the last three sessions as Gold tumbled almost the same amount, has stabilized this morning…through 10 minutes of trading, the CDNX is up 12 points to 1418…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) has exceeded even our bullish expectations in its just-released NI-43-101 resource update for Wasamac…total measured, indicated and inferred ounces have nearly doubled from 1.4 million to 2.7 million using a 1.5 g/t Au cut-off (measured: 1,924,218 tonnes grading 2.87 g/t Au; indicated: 4,839,237 tonnes grading 2.44 g/t Au; inferred: 25,686,159 tonnes grading 2.58 g/t Au)…even a higher 1.75 g/t Au cut-off grade gives total all-category resources of 2.5 million ounces…Richmont will begin a 32,000 metre definition drilling program at Wasamac in early next year that will target the upper portion of zones 1, 2 and 3 to a depth of 500 metres and the deeper part of the Main Zone…the program will involve four to five surface drills and will be undertaken while a PEA for an underground bulk mining operation is being completed…Wasamac is a game-changer for Richmont…realistically, the company has an excellent chance to put Wasamac into production by 2015 at a rate of more than 100,000 ounces per year…the Francoeur Mine is expected to commence commercial production by the middle of next year, and we suspect the company will be able to add to reserves at its two current operating mines – Beaufor and the Island Gold Mine…in addition, Richmont’s Monique Property near Val-d’Or holds potential as a small open-pit operation (perhaps 20,000 ounces per year) with ore treated at the company’s nearby Camflo Mill which has unused capacity…Richmont is one of the best, well-managed companies we have run across over the last two years and it has a very promising future…as of 6:40 am Pacific, RIC is up 43 cents at $11.39…

John has an updated chart this morning on Canada Rare Earths (CJC, TSX-V) which has been consolidating recently after a sharp advance…CJC closed yesterday at 55 cents and is currently trading at 57 cents…

Government reports on weekly jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the U.S. Northeast for December, released this morning, provide fresh evidence the U.S. economic recovery is picking up steam…how long that can be sustained, given the euro zone crisis and slowing growth in some of the emerging markets, remains to be seen…

China’s factory output shrank again in December after new orders fell, the HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed today, cementing expectations that manufacturers in that country are struggling with waning global demand and tight domestic credit conditions…expect more loosening of monetary policy in China which is Gold-positive…China’s chief policy concern has turned from fighting inflation to boosting growth…India is also facing challenges – industrial production fell sharply in October and economic growth slowed to below 7% in the third quarter – and an important upcoming monetary policy review meeting by the Reserve Bank of India will likely weigh cutting benchmark lending rates for the first time in two years…

Bank seizures of U.S. homes fell to their lowest level in nearly three years in November and fewer first-time default notices were sent to homeowners, a report by RealtyTrac said this morning….banks repossessed 56,124 homes in November, down 17% from October’s 67,624 and the lowest level since March, 2008…they were also down nearly 17% from November, 2010…Nevada had the country’s highest foreclosure rate for the 59th consecutive month…one in every 175 homes in Nevada had a foreclosure filing in November…of metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates, nine of the top 10 were in California…the only exception was LasVegas, which ranked sixth…

There’s an excellent article in this morning’s National Post by Peter Goodspeed (Power Shifts Pushing Middle East Closer To War) regarding the growing possibility of trouble in the Middle East next year…while the euro zone has been dominating the news headlines, the Middle East is becoming increasingly unstable and of course Iran is very much at the center of it all (with some help from the Russians and the Chinese)…perhaps the biggest risk to the global economy next year is not just the buffoons running Europe, but  a spike in oil prices brought on by war in the Middle East…Gold would probably respond well in those circumstances but higher oil prices would not be positive for equities in general or Gold producers who would be hit with increasing costs…

TD Bank is dramatically downgrading its expectations for the Canadian and global economies…the bank’s new forecast for Canada is that growth will be limited to 1.7% next year as global activity slows to 2.5%…both estimates represent a more modest outlook than is predicted by the Bank of Canada as well as the economists’ consensus used by the federal government in its fall economic update…next year’s growth expectation is two decimal points lower than the TD’s previous call, and it has shaved 0.4 points off its previous forecast for 2013 to a modest 2.2%…the bank’s economists also expect Canada’s unemployment rate to climb to as high as 8% next year from the current 7.4…they say Canada’s weakness mostly stems from external factors…the global slowdown will put a damper on Canadian exports and business and consumer confidence, they predict…

There appears to be a lot of pessimism in the Gold market at the moment which is a bullish contrarian sign…the yellow metal has had a rough couple of days and so have the TSX Gold Index and the CDNX – each, interestingly, down exactly 5.8% vs. the metal’s drop of 4.7%…we’re not panicking given the fact Gold has simply moved down to a strong support area – the technical pattern is familiar with Gold touching its 200-day moving average (SMA) as John’s chart last night pointed out…some firming up in Gold by the end of the week will keep its long-term weekly trendline completely intact, though it may have to test $1,600 first…throughout this bull market in Gold, physical buying has always entered the picture during times of technical weakness and we expect that’s happening now – central banks could be backing up the trucks and loading up, among others…the sky is not about to fall, as threatening as it looks this morning…

Examining some individual Gold stock charts can provide some interesting insight…take, for example, the chart for the Kinross “D” warrants (K.WT.D, TSX)…based on RSI (14), Slow Stochastics (14) and the Chaikin Money Flow (14), these warrants are in a deeply oversold condition, the likes of which one typically sees at or near a market bottom…

Gold producers will continue to outperform the juniors until the “risk on” switch is turned on again permanently, and that could take a while given the problems in the euro zone which is dominating market sentiment…the under-performance of the CDNX this year vs. other markets is not a good sign for the global economy and that could mean there are some rough waters ahead for at least the first half of 2012…the Venture has been in a bear market since March, interrupted on occasion by a decent rally…that trend is likely to continue…timing these rallies and trading them is not easy…those with a longer-term outlook can certainly find value in the market at the moment as many issues have had their valuations beaten down to very attractive levels…

As of 6:00 am Pacific, Dow futures are pointing to lower open… Gold is off $10 an ounce at $1,621…Silver is $1.07 lower at $29.77…Copper is down a dime at $3.33…Crude Oil is off $1.80 a barrel to $98.34 while the surging U.S. Dollar Index is up more than one-fifth of a point to 80.54…the Dollar Index is looking bullish overall but it is approaching resistance – 81 is a key level to watch…we could see a reaction soon in the Dollar which would help to stabilize Gold and the CDNX…

The Financial Times reports that Franco-German hopes for a sweeping new treaty to bind the EU’s economies more closely came under strain yesterday as several European Union leaders warned of difficulties pushing a far-reaching pact through their national parliaments…this euro zone nightmare isn’t going to end anytime soon – there is no quick solution, just a step forward followed by a step back…on and on and on like slow torture…

OPEC has agreed to keep oil output broadly steady at its current level for 2012, in a show of unity by the cartel after its previous meeting in June ended in disarray…the deal will comfort oil consumers, who have urged the oil cartel to maintain supplies rather than cut them in the face of slower economic activity…however, the supply-demand balance remains tight and prices are likely to remain at elevated levels…Iran is the “wild card” that could cause prices to spike at some point next year which would have negative consequences for the global economy..

Canadians have set a new record for household debt, a sign that many families are leaving themselves vulnerable to an economic shock…new Statistics Canada show that the debt burden of Canadian households has surpassed levels of both the United States and the United Kingdom and, by at least one measure, they are hurtling toward those countries’ peak levels of 2007…the ratio of debt to personal disposable income hit a high of 152.98% in the third quarter from 150.57% in the prior three months, Statscan said yesterday…the report comes as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is again sounding the alarm over swelling household debt…“Our greatest domestic risk relates to household finances,” the central banker said in a CBC radio interview…roughly one in 10 Canadians is in a vulnerable financial position, Mr. Carney said – meaning that the cost of servicing their debt consumes more than 40% of their income – “and that, historically, is where people start to have issues in making their debt service payments”…

Okay, everyone, we can panic and dump all our Gold stocks and run for the hills, or take a deep breath and calmly examine John’s latest Gold chart…

Gold took another hit today, falling as low as $1,621 an ounce, but John’s 2.5-year weekly chart makes it quite clear that now is probably the time to be a buyer of Gold, not a fear-stricken seller.  Is there a risk of more downside action, triggered be liquidity problems in Europe?  Yes, there is, but what the Gold chart is showing us at the moment is a familiar pattern which means plenty of technical support in the $1,600 to $1,625 range.  We anticipate a rebound in Gold by the end of the week on bargain hunting, either through technical buying or physical buying.   If not, then there could be a short-term problem.

Gold is trying to find its footing after being knocked off stride yesterday with some aggressive selling in the wake of another EU summit that really didn’t resolve a whole lot (no great surprise)…also, much to the chagrin of the markets, the European Central Bank is so far holding back from ramping up its bond purchases…with some near-term chart damage having been inflicted on the yellow metal, now is the time for the physical market to step in with some bargain hunting – reports suggest this is happening in India and elsewhere – which will support the price…we’ve seen that occur during other periods of technical weakness in Gold throughout this spectacular bull run…“This pullback finally encouraged a response from the physical community,” Edel Tully, a respected analyst at UBS in London, wrote in a report this morning…“Market participants are placing a lot of importance on physical buyers to step in and put a floor under Gold…the physical response seen this week, though not yet enough to call a trend, should somewhat calm these investors”…

As of 7:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $6 an ounce at $1,671 after dipping as low as $1,650 overnight…below is John’s Gold chart from December 8 that shows that Gold right now is simply once again testing a long-term trendline – so we see no need for panic at this point, though days like yesterday with a $50 an ounce drop are a little unnerving for many investors…keep in mind that a slight but brief drop below the long-term trendline could easily occur, which means $1,600-$1,625 can’t be ruled out in the near-term…Gold’s overall long-term bullish picture remains completely intact…

As of 7:00 am Pacific, Silver is up 40 cents an ounce to $31.69…Copper is unchanged at $3.47…Crude Oil is $1 higher at $98.76 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-fifth of a point to 79.44…the Federal Reserve is meeting today, so markets will be hoping for some sort of Christmas gift from Ben Bernanke…will he play the part of Scrooge today or Santa?…

Bloomberg reports this morning that European banks, under pressure from regulators to bolster capital, are selling some of their fastest-growing businesses to competitors from outside the region — at the expense of future profit and economic growth…

After giving some positive technical signals recently, the CDNX took an abrupt turn to the south yesterday as it shed a whopping 56 points, in sympathy with Gold’s drop and losses in New York and Toronto, to close slightly under 1500 at 1491…we still see a strong possibility of a rally as we pointed out over the weekend, though the drop below support at 1500 is a concern and raises risk…the Index is up 5 points in early trading at 1496…keep in mind, this is bear market until evidence suggests otherwise so it can have deceiving twists (like yesterday)…rallies can be expected to be sold into…

Atac Resources Ltd. (ATC, TSX-V) has received assays for the final 22 diamond drill holes from the Osiris and Isis East zones within the Nadaleen Trend and 10 scout holes from the Rau Trend located within the company’s 100% owned 1,600-square-kilometre Rackla Gold project in central Yukon…results from the Osiris shear included 44.2 metres grading 4.41 g/t Au (134.11 to 178.31 metres) in OS-11-082…meanwhile, 2 holes were drilled 50 metres apart to test a Gold-in-soil geochemical anomaly overlying the Isis carbonate sequence where it’s cut by the Osiris Shear structure…both holes returned solid results with 3.33 g/t Au over 33 metres in OS-11-040 and 3.13 g/t Au over 51.82 metres in OS-11-073…a series of “scout holes” to test soil geochemical targets within the Rau Trend returned only low-grade mineralization but more follow-up is required and will take place…the Osiris Shear system remains open at depth and at the north end for a 700 metre distance toward the junction with the Nadaleen Fault – the mineralizing feeder structure for the Conrad Zone…all 29 drill holes that intersected the Osiris Shear system in 2010 and 2011 encountered Gold mineralization with 20 drill holes intersecting better than 3.25 g/t Au across significant widths…ATC opened 14 cents higher this morning at $2.86…after the first 30 minutes of trading, it’s up a penny at $2.73…for patient investors, ATC looks attractive from a long-term perspective in the vicinity of its rising 1000-day moving average (SMA) where it’s very close to right now…ATC is one of several quality Yukon plays that should heat up again by next spring and summer, so now is probably a good time to consider some bottom-fishing on any additional weakness with at least a 9-month time horizon…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) was halted prior to the open this morning, pending news from the company…

Cap-Ex Ventures (CEV, TSX-V) is off another 3 pennies to 87 cents…the stock has declined for six consecutive sessions entering today but on mostly fairly light volume…Slow Stochastics (14) show an oversold technical condition while RSI (14) may have found support around the 50 level…we continue to love the fundamentals as the company’s Block 103 property has the potential to develop into Canada’s largest iron ore deposit…Cap-Ex could be back on the march again soon, particularly following completion of the recently announced financing at 85 cents…

Canada Rare Earths (CJC, TSX-V) is holding strong and looking good at 60 cents after testing support in the low 50’s…

Gold is taking a pounding this morning as a new week begins and in the wake of the Brussels summit…as of 7:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $52 an ounce at $1,659…it’s currently below an important technical support zone from $1,665 to $1,680…a breach of that support on a closing basis could take Gold down to the $1,600-$1,625 range…a strengthening U.S. Dollar is a major factor in Gold’s softness this morning and that has everything to do with liquidity issues in the euro zone…funding and money market stresses and the need for cash are putting a squeeze on Gold, though this could be just temporary…it seems traders and investors want the euro zone debt crisis to proceed in a “QE”-rich direction and the European Central Bank isn’t cooperating, at least not yet…eventually, the “big bazooka” will have to be brought to bear on the euro zone problem and that could happen sooner rather than later…there’s a high stakes game going on and traders are likely to test the resolve of the ECB’s new chairman, Mario Draghi, who so far is resisting calls to step up ECB bond purchases…

The goal of the Brussels summit was to create a more fiscally integrated euro zone and the steps that were taken should move the EU in that direction, although how it’s going to work in a practical sense remains to be seen…this could sow the seeds of social unrest in some parts of the EU as each country’s sovereignty is eroded…austerity measures across the EU – German-style fiscal discipline – will surely meet with some resistance, and what the EU leaders have not properly addressed is the growth deficit…the EU has a large collective fiscal deficit but it also has a major growth deficit at the moment, and a worse-than-expected recession could make everything begin to unravel…so risks remain huge in the euro zone and nothing was really “resolved” at the end of last week – there was perhaps some progress but the debt crisis is complicated and expecting coordinated action from a couple of dozen countries is like trying to convince Obama that the Keystone Pipeline Project makes sense and needs to proceed as quickly as possible…

Yes, Europe has its problems but the United States is stuck with a President who has nothing else to run on than class warfare and his incredible and reckless socialist theory that the “rich”, the “big banks” and “big oil” are all to blame for the economic woes in America…that line of thinking helped give energy to the Occupy Wall St. Movement…you never hear from Obama about the importance of “creating wealth” – only the need to re-distribute it in some way or another…no less than three-quarters of Americans believe their country is on the “wrong track”, so Obama will continue to do his best to distract the populace in the months ahead with a class warfare agenda…

Anti-Wall Street protesters up and down the West Coast, most of whom ought to be thrown in jail, are joining an effort to blockade some of North America’s busiest ports from Anchorage to Vancouver to San Diego…the protests being billed as action against “Wall Street on the waterfront” are perhaps the Occupy movement’s most dramatic gesture since police raids sent most remaining camps scattering last month…”Taking on and blocking the 1% at the port is also taking on the global issue of exploitation by capitalism,” said Occupy Oakland blockade organizer Barucha Peller…where did these people come from?…

Enough ranting for today…the CDNX has been showing signs recently of a year-end rally and it’ll be interesting to see how the Index responds this week…support has been holding nicely at 1500 and a rally approaching the November 8 high of 1675 certainly appears plausible…John’s latest CDNX chart shows the trading range we’re in – 1500 to 1700…overall, this continues to be a bear market until we have confirmation otherwise, but bear markets can produce significant and profitable rallies just like bull markets can have nasty corrections…

The above chart was completed Friday morning, prior to that day’s 30-point jump that took the CDNX to 1547…there is a wall of resistance between 1575 and the 1675 November high…various technical indicators are now looking positive including a now-rising 50-day moving average (SMA)…as long as 1500 holds, this market should finish the year higher than it is now…

As of 7:30 am Pacific, the CDNX is down 31 points at 1516 while the Dow and TSX are each off more than 170 points…Silver is down $1.31 at $30.92, Copper has slid 11 cents to $3.46, Crude Oil is $1.50 weaker at $97.91 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained three-quarters of a point to 79.39…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) gapped up on unusual volume this morning, highly interesting given the drop in the Gold price and the weakness in the TSX Gold Index…the RIC chart is showing a lot of strength, however, and the company is expected to release an updated 43-101 resource estimate this week on the Wasamac Property which could easily show a 50% or more increase in total resources, plus an upgrading of resources, given impressive drill results this year…RIC ran as high as $12.66 before pulling back…it’s currently off 66 cents at $11.68…

Events in the U.S. will force their way up market watchers’ agenda during the next few days and challenge the recent dominance of the euro zone drama…the highlight will be tomorrow’s policy meeting of the Federal Reserve but in a busy week for U.S. data, retail sales and inflation figures will also be released, together with manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia…there is also an OPEC meeting this week…