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Gold has hovered between $1,721 and $1,734 so far today…as of 6:45 am Pacific, bullion is down $3 an ounce at $1,725…Silver is off 12 cents at $33.07…Copper is down 2 pennies at $3.47…Crude Oil has gained 54 cents a barrel to $87.29 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly but significantly off its earlier highs at 80.97…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets powered higher overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 21 points to 2030…European shares are slightly higher…Greece’s international lenders failed for the second week running to agree how to get the country’s debt down to a sustainable level and will have a third go at resolving their most intractable problem next Monday…it’s the last trading session before Thanksgiving in the U.S., and the Dow is up 24 points at 12812 as of 6:45 am Pacific…the TSX is down 16 points while the Venture Exchange has gained 3 points to 1245…

Bernanke Warns Congress

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used a speech at the New York Economic Club yesterday to warn Congress about the importance of resolving the “Fiscal Cliff”…it was Bernanke who actually coined that phrase, and the mainstream media has been throwing it around like confetti at a wedding – scaring many investors in the process, but that’s what the media is good at doing…they love milking a story for everything it’s worth…Bernanke is not stupid, he knows that, and his words are always considered very carefully…he knows that monetary policy alone can’t solve the United States’ fiscal and economic woes, so he has been using the power of his position to focus the attention of Congress and the American people on the “fiscal issue” and the need for the President and Congress to get their act together…one can’t help but think some sort of a deal will be worked out and the markets will be able to put behind all this anxiety and uncertainty soon enough…

“The realization of all of the automatic tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff, absent offsetting changes, would pose a substantial threat to the recovery – indeed, by the reckoning of the Congressional Budget Office and that of many outside observers, a fiscal shock of that size would send the economy toppling back into recession,” Bernanke stated…he warned that there is little the Fed can do to protect the economy if the full $500 billion of “fiscal cliff” spending cuts and tax increases occurs….”A fiscal shock of that size would send the economy toppling back into recession,” he warned…he reiterated his call to lawmakers to enact a long-run deficit-reduction plan that doesn’t kick in too aggressively at once…such a plan, he said, could help reduce business uncertainty and support the economy today…”Even as fiscal policy makers address the urgent issue of longer-run fiscal sustainability, they should not ignore a second key objective: to avoid unnecessarily adding to the headwinds that are already holding back the economic recovery,” he added…Bernanke lately has been speaking more starkly about the significance of fiscal-policy decisions…debt-limit debates in 2011, he said, “badly damaged confidence,” and a repeat “could impose even heavier economic and financial costs…

“We will continue to do our best to add monetary-policy support to the recovery,” Mr. Bernanke said at the New York Economic Club, answering a question about how the Federal Reserve would respond to impending spending cuts or tax increases that might restrain economic growth…”What the Federal Reserve can do and will do is continue its stated policy which is to do additional asset purchases, buy MBS [mortgage backed securities], and take whatever actions are appropriate to try to ensure that the outlook for labor markets improves in a sustained way and a substantial way,” he added.

Long-Term Gold Chart

Bernanke has been one of Gold’s best friends and a continued aggressive monetary approach by the Fed in 2013 will maintain a bullish backdrop for bullion…below is an updated 12-year monthly Gold chart from John that shows some similarities between now and the period shortly after the Crash of 2008…Gold fell below its 12-month moving average (SMA) earlier this year and moved back above it in September…given this chart pattern, in addition to historical trends, we expect Gold to accelerate to the upside during the first quarter of next year…

What Is Copper Telling Us?

Copper has proven to be a very reliable leading indicator and it certainly hasn’t fallen off the cliff despite heightened concerns in recent weeks regarding the global economy…Copper has been trading in a symmetrical triangle for more than a year and it’s now very close to the apex which means “decision time” is near…volume and buying pressure both need to pick up for Copper to break to the upside…we’ll keep a close watch on this metal in the weeks ahead as its trading behavior should give us some important clues on the direction of the markets…

Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V)

Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) has been a star performer recently and has climbed 34 cents over the last three trading sessions after closing yesterday above $2 per share for the first time since February…the market has finally been waking up to the quality of Probe’s Borden Lake Project in northern Ontario…John’s 6-month daily chart suggests there’s room for Probe to move higher over the near-term, but of course overall market conditions will be critical…as of 6:45 am Pacific, PRB is up another dime at $2.20…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in PRB.

Gold has traded between $1,729 and $1,737 so far today…as of 7:20 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,733…Silver is 4 cents higher at $33.15…Copper is down a penny at $3.50…Crude Oil is 69 cents lower at $88.59 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated over one-tenth of a point to 80.92…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were slightly lower overnight while European shares are mixed this morning…meanwhile, the Dow and the TSX are both down modestly in early trading after yesterday’s strong gains…markets started showing signs of reversing last Friday after an overdone sell-off that was largely inspired by the mainstream media’s “Fiscal Cliff” scare mongering, an improper and emotionally-charged phrase that has created a lot of unnecessary panic by investors…it’s more of a “Fiscal Slope” than anything, and U.S. lawmakers will undoubtedly do what they have to do in order to come to an agreement on spending cuts and taxes in time for January 1…the Venture Exchange is up another 2 points at 1252…

Bernanke Speaks This Morning

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could give markets and Gold another boost today when he speaks on “the economic recovery and economic policy” at the Economic Club of New York at 12:15 p.m. eastern…

Bank Of Japan Holds Fire On Policy Changes As Expected

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady today, standing its ground for now in the face of calls from the country’s likely next prime minister to pursue “unlimited” easing…in a sign of the times, the leader of the main opposition, Shinzo Abe, has put the central bank at the center of economic debate ahead of a Dec. 16 national election that surveys show his party would win, signaling his government would put the bank under much greater pressure to ease policy…Abe has even suggested revising the Bank of Japan law, a step critics say is aimed at clipping the central bank’s independence and forcing it to print money to finance public debt that is already double the size of Japan’s economy…but the central bank kept monetary policy steady after a two-day meeting yesterday, holding fire so it can size up the policies of a new government to be formed after the December vote for the powerful Lower House…markets had expected the central bank to hold fire on any policy changes…”The BOJ will pursue powerful monetary easing continuously by keeping interest rates virtually at zero and steadily increasing the amount outstanding of its asset-buying program,” the central bank said in a statement, repeating a pledge to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy to achieve 1% inflation…

Moody’s Kicks France

Not surprisingly, Moody’s stripped France of its triple-A rating yesterday as it delivered a stinging critique of President François Hollande’s attempts to turn the economy around amid the euro-zone crisis…Moody’s said the main reasons for its action is the economy’s weakness and the risks to the government’s finances “posed by the country’s persistent structural economic challenges” – not the least of which is the country’s reliance on borrowing to finance generous social-welfare programs…the downgrade brings Moody’s ratings for France in line with a move earlier this year by rival agency Standard & Poor’s, so the negative news has already been priced into markets…

U.S. Housing Starts Strong

U.S. housing starts rose to their highest rate in more than four years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery was gaining steam, even though permits for future construction fell…the Commerce Department said this morning that housing starts increased 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000 units – the highest since July, 2008…economists had expected groundbreaking to slow to an 840,000-unit rate…

Venture Exchange

The Venture Exchange is holding important support and has rebounded more than 30 points since last Thursday’s intra-day low of 1219…a major trend change, which is one of the reasons we’re bullish regarding the direction of the Venture for 2013, is a 4-month out-performance by this Index against the Dow…during much of that time the Venture has also out-performed Gold..this is something we haven’t seen since the CDNX bear market started in March of last year…it’s a modest out-performance, as shown in John’s 4-month chart below, but it’s important nonetheless…if overall markets were in trouble, the Venture would be leading the way downward…instead, it has taken the lead to the upside…

CRB Index & The U.S. Dollar Index

Two other indicators that are important to follow in sizing up the Venture are the CRB Index and the U.S. Dollar Index…interestingly, the CRB Index is looking fantastic – in the last three weeks it has formed a base at the Fibonacci 50% retracement level after making a 20% move in less than 3 months after bottoming at just under 270…notice in this 1-year weekly chart from John how the Index is now coming out of extreme oversold conditions…there’s also a crossover in the Slow Stochastics (%K has crossed above %D)…

CRB Index

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index is facing a very stiff resistance band between 81 and 81.50…it’s also in danger of forming a head and shoulders top as shown in the 2.5-year weekly chart below…

Discovery Ventures (DVN, TSX-V)

Volume in Discovery Ventures (DVN, TSX-V) exploded beginning in September and the stock is showing no signs of slowing down…yesterday, DVN announced (pursuant to its Oct. 18 news) that it has entered into a definitive agreement with a privately held British Columbia company to earn an 80% interest in the 5,000-hectare Willa Gold-Copper Property in the Slocan Valley, just 8 miles north of Rainbow Resources‘ (RBW, TSX-V) Gold Viking Property where a 12-hole drill program was just completed…DVN will pay a total of $3 million cash over a three-year period as part of the deal…it sees Willa as a near-term production opportunity given the property’s historical resources and the $15+ million that has historically been invested in the project…Willa features completed underground mine workings consisting of two adit leels, an internal level with two declines and two raises connecting the levels..the main haulage level runs for 900 metres and is equipped with 60-pound rail…

Technically, DVN faces resistance at the moment between 32 and 36 cents, as shown in the chart below, but this is definitely a situation to watch closely…with only 24 million shares outstanding (and no warrant “overhang”), DVN’s current market cap is only $7.7 million…the Willa Project will definitely be a boost for the exploration and mining industry in the area which is a positive development as well for Rainbow, especially if it has drilling success at Gold Viking…

Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V)

Yukon plays have been hurting lately, not the least of which is Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) which has fallen in 12 out of the last 14 sessions…KAM is in a strong cash position and is expected to release the first NI-43-101 resource estimate for its Coffee Project sometime during the first quarter of next year…drilling for 2012 is complete and will re-start next March…KAM met resistance at the $2.40 level in September and October, so a pullback was likely because of that, but the sell-off certainly appears to have been overdone…KAM does have support at the $1.40 level and could now be ready to work its way out of these heavily oversold conditions…we can’t help but think KAM will be performing much better in a couple of months…as always, perform your own due diligence, and always be prepared for volatility…

Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in RBW.  Jon also holds share positions in DVN and KAM.

Gold is firmer this morning to begin the new week, climbing as high as $1,727...as of 4:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $10 an ounce at $1,724…Silver is up 39 cents to $32.70…Copper is 4 pennies higher at $3.49…Crude Oil has gained $1.01 a barrel to $87.93 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated over one-tenth of a point to 81.04…

Gold’s next significant resistance is around $1,740 which also coincides with the 50-day moving average (SMA)…it needs to bust through that area to give the bulls fresh momentum…the U.S. Mint has sold 56,000 ounces of Gold coins in November, according to data on the Mint’s web site…at that pace, total sales this month would be 106,900 ounces, up 161% from a year earlier…

Today’s Markets

Japan’s Nikkei Index climbed to a two-month high overnight as Asian stocks were stronger across the board, supported by hopes U.S. politicians can overcome an imminent fiscal crunch…the yen also fell to a 7-month low against the dollar on expectations that a new government chosen in next month’s election could pump large amounts of stimulus cash into the economy…the Bank of Japan is under more pressure for action ahead of announcing its policy decision tomorrow as polls suggest Japan’s main opposition party is headed for victory…a call by Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Shinzo Abe for the Bank of Japan to further stimulate the ailing economy, including pushing interest rates to zero or below zero, has weakened the yen and boosted the shares of Japanese exporters…European markets are very strong this morning, up by more than 1.5%, while stock index futures in New York are pointing toward a bullish opening on Wall Street…it’s a shortened trading week in the United States with Thanksgiving on Thursday and a half-trading day Friday…the Venture Exchange begins the new week at 1235…it’s right in the middle of an important support band between 1215 and 1253…

Inflation Is China’s Main Long-Term Risk:  Central Bank Governor

Inflation is the main long-term risk for China as the economy makes a transition from a planned economy to a market-based one and deeper financial reforms are needed to complete the move, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Saturday…”There is a general tendency for overheating impulses during China’s economic transition process and we should always stress the need to control inflation,” Xiaochuan told a financial forum as reported by CNBC…”In most occasions, pressures from various sides is to loosen monetary policy to spur growth, but there is less push for preventing economic overheating and inflation,” he said…a main feature of China’s economic transition is that many entities, including local governments, are not subject to “soft constraints” which means they tend to spend more and fuel economic overheating, he added…China’s annual inflation eased to to 1.7% in October from 1.9% in September after a two-year fight by the central bank to bring it back under the government’s 4% target after the effects of a 2008-09 economic stimulus program lifted CPI to a three-year high of 6.5% in July, 2011…

Silver Headed Toward $50 An Ounce In 2013 – Thomas Reuters GFMS

A rebound in investment demand, as a result of continuing loose monetary policies around the world, is expected to drive Silver prices toward and possibly over $50 an ounce in 2013, said the consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS in its interim Silver market review released last Friday…the report described investment demand as critical in filling what otherwise would be a gap between rising supplies and falling fabrication demand…the consultancy said investment interest in Silver has picked up since mid-August, highlighting growing interest in Gold and other precious metals, following a series of announcements on looser monetary policy from several major central banks…still, the new wave of investment may remain smaller than in early 2011, Thomson Reuters GFMS said…“We wouldn’t be surprised also if Silver’s gains outpaced Gold’s, not only as the usual result of lower liquidity but also as memories of early 2011’s painful losses (in silver) continue to fade,” said Philip Klapwijk, global head of metals analytics for Thomson Reuters GFMS…the consultancy said this would be further aided by some tentative improvement in the global economic outlook, which would portend improved prospects for industrial fabrication…“In the consultancy’s view, this and the growth expected, especially in value terms, of investment would be sufficient to drive the Silver price to around the $36 mark before end-2012, although the attainment of a level similar to or just above its all-time high is unlikely to take place until some way into 2013,” Thomson Reuters GFMS said…

Silver Short-Term Chart

Silver closed at its EMA(20) Friday which is now providing support at it has reversed to the upside after being in decline for almost the entire month of October…the next major resistance is $33.30 as shown in John’s 9-month daily chart below…

Silver Long-Term Chart

No change in Silver’s long-term technical outlook…the “Wave 3” move continues to progress well…RSI(2) may have found support at the 50 level and could be ready to move higher again…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion Development’s (GBB, TSX-V) LONG Bars Zone at the Granada Gold Property is finally starting to flex its muscles as GBB released an updated resource calculation last Thursday that outlined a Gold resource of 2,638,000 ounces (47,475,000 tonnes grading 1.05 g/t Au in the measured and indicated categories, and 29,975,000 tonnes grading 1.07 g/t Au in the inferred category, at a cut-off of 0.40 g/t Au)…with an estimated Gold recovery of 94%, and the mineralized system still open in ALL directions, the LONG Bars Zone still offers plenty of upside…GBB seems to have the right technical group to handle the project, SGS Canada Inc., after a disappointing engagement with GENIVAR that slowed the project down…while the share price didn’t budge on Thursday’s news, we encourage investors to remain patient as we believe GBB has finally found its footing with this resource estimate after a rocky period that began nearly two years ago (coinciding with the beginning of a bear market)…technically, as John showed in a recent chart, GBB’s long-term direction appears to have swung positive…it’s important to note that the 100-day moving average (SMA) reversed to the upside in September which ended a long decline…some dilutive financings have created some overhead resistance but that’s something the market can sort out in the coming months…if Frank Basa can come out swinging as 2013 begins, happy days may return again for GBB shareholders…

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V)

Markets were rocky last week and as a result, Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) – like most stocks – was like a ship in the sea getting tossed around by high winds and powerful waves…the reality was different, however, on the ground where Rainbow continued to tackle the Jewel Ridge Property in Nevada after completing drill programs at the International and Gold Viking properties in the West Kootenays…while there’s never a “sure thing” in exploration, we’re as confident as ever with Rainbow as far as the big picture is concerned given the latest news, the geological merits of each property and the skill of Moose Mountain senior geologist Bob Morris…he’s highly respected in the industry and one of the key reasons we put our faith in Rainbow a year ago…few companies have been as aggressive as Rainbow in recent months, in terms of drilling different properties, and that kind of perseverance – coupled with some geological smarts – is often rewarded…we see a very interesting situation unfolding in Nevada and the possibility of a discovery in southeast British Columbia…the market, as we reminded investors in our Week In Review yesterday, is ruled by fear and greed…fear was in control last week and took many stocks to extreme oversold conditions based on RSI and other indicators, including RBW where the RSI(2) fell to its lowest level of the year…

Happy Creek Minerals (HPY, TSX-V)

Happy Creek Minerals (HPY, TSX-V) is a play we haven’t mentioned in a long time, but we suggest our readers take a serious look at it as part of their due diligence…HPY has made good progress this year with a portfolio of six 100%-owned properties in British Columbia…most recently, the company reported continued positive results from its Fox Tungsten-Moly Property 75 kilometres northeast of 100 Mile House…the scale and grades of this discovery are thought to be comparable with some of the best tungsten mines or advanced-stage projects worldwide…the near-surface, potentially open-pit configuration and nearby infrastructure are additional positive aspects of this project…HPY closed at 23.5 cents Friday, giving it a market cap of approximately $13 million…technically, the key development to look for is a breakout above the down trendline that has been in place for a couple of years…this is critically important for confirmation of a potential “Wave 3” as John outlines in the chart below…

Spur Ventures (SVU, TSX-V)

Spur Ventures (SVU, TSX-V) has caught our eye given the fact it’s sitting on piles of cash ($30 million) and is trading at a 25% discount to that cash…this is usually a situation that demands investor patience as a company determines its best course of action, but Spur certainly has a great opportunity in the current market environment to pull off a game-changing property acquisition given its strong treasury and apparent desire to make something happen…at Friday’s 38-cent close, the company’s current market cap is only 23 million…SVU named John Morgan, a geologist with a 35-year career as a mining executive, as its new President and CEO last April and assigned him the responsibility of “executing the company’s strategy to pursue potential acquisitions in Gold, base metals or other mineral assets or businesses that are in more advanced stages of development where the balance of technical and geopolitical risk is intended to result in increased value to Spur’s shareholders within a relatively short time frame (April 11, 2012 news release)…John likes the chart given the “saucer pattern” and some other positive indicators as described below…the 300-day SMA, at 34 cents, is also slowly reversing to the upside…

Note: John and Jon hold share positions in RBW while Terry holds a share position in GBB.

TSX Venture Exchange and Gold

When the mainstream media latches on to an emotionally charged word, term or concept, they love to throw it around recklessly like confetti at a wedding.  That’s what has been happening with “Fiscal Cliff”.  The word “cliff” conjures up all sorts of negative and scary images, and “Fiscal Cliff” is a phrase the media is having a field day with at the moment.  This has caused many nervous investors to hit the panic button, dump their stocks and raise cash in order to “prevent” their hard-earned dollars from falling over the cliff on January 1 and disappearing forever into the abyss.  These sorts of panics over the years have all proven to be great buying opportunities for patient and astute investors.  The market is driven by fear and greed.  When there’s fear, get greedy.  When there’s greed, get fearful.  That’s how you make money in the market.

The Venture Exchange was not immune last week to the media scare-mongering over the “Fiscal Cliff” and went into a three-day tailspin (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) that took it down nearly 100 points or almost 7%.  On Friday, bargain hunters stepped up to the plate and drove the Index up 13 points to close the week at 1235.  That was still a 66-point drop (5%) from the previous Friday, but the Index is still within an important support band that stretches from 1215 to 1253. RSI(2), as John shows in the 7-month daily chart below, was pushed to an extreme low that matched previous important lows in the Venture over the last several months.  The next several trading sessions will obviously be critical to see if this support band holds.

As far as the broader equity markets are concerned, the Dow hit an RSI(14) level not seen since the late May/early June lows – same with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the TSX.  So we should see the markets stabilize in the week ahead and begin to emerge out of these oversold conditions. As one market observer stated, there’s a big risk right now in NOT being in stocks given the pullback we’ve just experienced.

Gold

Gold gave up one-third of its gains from the previous week and closed Friday at $1,714, a loss of $17 for the week.  There are clear areas of support and resistance, and for now bullion may simply bounce around between $1,675 and $1,740 until it breaks decisively one way or the other.

The Indian Gold market is showing signs of recovery, up 9% to 223.1 tons in the third quarter of 2012 from 204.8 tons in the third quarter of 2011, following increases in both jewelry and investment demand.  Meanwhile, billionaire fund manager George Soros increased his stake by about 50% in the SDPR Gold Trust while John Paulson maintained his holdings in the world’s largest Gold bullion-backed ETF.  During the third quarter, Soros Fund Management raised its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust from 884,400 shares in the second quarter to 1.3 million shares.

Silver matched Gold’s loss for the week in percentage terms, falling 32 cents to $32.31.  Copper held steady at support, closing Friday at $3.45.  Crude Oil gained 85 cents a barrel to $86.01 as tensions escalated between Israel and Hamas, while the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to 81.19 as it continues to trade within a resistance band between 81 and 81.50. It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the Dollar Index in the days ahead.

The “Big Picture” View Of Gold

As Frank Holmes so effectively illustrates at www.usfunds.com, Gold is being driven by both the Fear Trade and the Love Trade.  The transfer of wealth from west to east, and the accumulation of wealth particularly in China and India, is having a huge impact on Gold.

The fundamental case for Gold remains incredibly strong – currency instability and an overall lack of confidence in fiat currencies, governments and world leaders in general, an environment of historically low interest rates and negative real interest rates that won’t end anytime soon (inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate even in parts of the world where rates are increasing), money supply growth, massive government debt from the United States to Europe, central bank buying, flat mine supply, physical demand, investment demand, emerging market growth, geopolitical unrest and conflicts, and inflation concerns…the list goes on.  QE3 has arrived, and massive central bank intervention is now taking place to prevent a breakup of the euro zone and to kick-start the global economy.  It’s hard to imagine Gold not performing well in this environment.

Welcome to our site, or at least the initial version of it!  BMR has been online for three years and strictly through word-of-mouth we have built a loyal following. 

We’re continuing with our plans to ultimately build a very unique investment and money-management resource site that goes considerably beyond what we have now.  While we focus a great deal on the Gold and Silver markets and trends in the global economy, and of course the technical health of the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX), an important component of this site will always be original research on undiscovered junior exploration companies or small producers, mostly in the Gold and Silver exploration space, that offer very real and significant upside potential. We are extremely selective in the companies we feature and put forward to investors – we prefer quality over quantity.  However, investors must understand that these are still highly speculative situations and entail considerable risk, volatility and unpredictability.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. Always perform your own due diligence and please read our disclaimer at the bottom.

We use a combination of fundamental and technical factors in determining the value and potential of a stock.  In terms of fundamentals we look for a company with a superb project supported by strong management.  Management must possess integrity, solid ethics and a determination to succeed and build shareholder value.

At BullMarketRun (BMR) we approach the handling of money from a biblical perspective and this is an important topic we will be sharing with our readers (and listeners) as the site continues to develop. The Bible teaches so much about money and how to handle it and invest it –  there are literally thousands of verses on how we should handle the money and possessions that God entrusts us with.  By examining the life of Jesus and reading the Word of God, we can all become fully equipped to be successful investors and handle money wisely.  If it’s the other way around –  if you’re a slave to money by being in debt for instance, or if you don’t respect the value of money and spend it foolishly –  you’re in trouble and you’ll never be blessed financially.  We have a God who thinks big – He created the universe – and He wants us to think big  in every area of our lives.  When we handle money from a Biblical perpective (His money that we have been given stewardship of) He will bless our financial decisions and an increase of tenfold or a hundredfold is always possible.  This all begins, of course, with a personal relationship with Jesus Christ by accepting Him as your Lord and Savior and putting Him at the throne of your life.  It is the most important decision you’ll ever make.

God Bless,

Terry Dyer

Owner/Publisher, www.BullMarketRun.com

Disclaimer:

BullMarketRun.com (BMR) is completely independent from any companies it covers.  BMR accepts no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations for coverage of any company mentioned on this site.  We accept no advertising either.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. No investment opinion or other advice is being rendered on any stock or company. We strongly recommend that you consult with a qualified investment adviser, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research before making any investment decisions. The stocks we cover, by definition, are highly speculative and potentially very volatile. Investors are cautioned that they may lose all or a portion of their investment if they make a purchase or short sale in these speculative stocks.  We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. It should be assumed that BMR personnel, writers and their associates may hold or dispose of or trade in positions in any securities mentioned herein at any time.  Owner/Publisher of BullMarketRun.com is Terry Dyer of Langley, British Columbia.

Forward Looking Statements:

All statements in BMR’s reports, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “targeting”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements.

Gold has traded in a range between $1,705 and $1,717 so far today…as of 7:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,712…Silver is off 27 cents to $32.37…Copper continues to trade at support, down a penny at $3.44…Crude Oil is up 74 cents a barrel to $86.19 as tensions escalate between Israel and Hamas, while the U.S. Dollar Index has soared nearly half a point to 81.41…

A day after a World Gold Council report showed an increase in India’s Gold demand in the third quarter, the government has raised the import tariff value of the yellow metal (and Silver as well)…

Today’s Markets

A wild week on the markets come to a close today…stocks have sold off more than 5% since election day on concerns that President Obama and a divided Congress will not be able to strike a deal on taxes and spending that allow the U.S. economy to avoid hitting the $600 billion “fiscal cliff”, the combination of taxes and automatic spending cuts that start to take effect January 1 if Congress does not act…the mainstream media, which loves to focus on such a story, has helped to create a sense of panic in the markets which have clearly become technically oversold as John’s charts showed yesterday…while there has been talk from each side about a commitment to compromise, the first face-to-face meeting on the topic since the election takes place today when Congressional leaders meet with Obama at the White House…rest assured, the media will be watching intensely as this soap opera continues…

The oversold state of the markets is clearly reflected in one individual stock in particular – Apple Inc. (AAPL, Nasdaq)…Apple is a favorite stock in many portfolios and funds, and as a result it has been an obvious target for capital gains avoidance in future years…Apple has tumbled 25% since its all-time high of just over $700 a share in September….while of course this site is about precious metals and the junior resource sector, we thought it would be useful nonetheless to demonstrate just how oversold Apple has become in order to put the overall current market picture in clear perspective…

Apple, which is off another $6 per share in early trading this morning, has fallen significantly below its rising 200-day moving average (SMA) for the first time since the 2008 market meltdown…it has dipped very slightly below its 300-day moving average…this is a major oversold situation and additional evidence that the markets are poised for a turnaround…

“Unlimited Easing” Coming To Japan?

The Nikkei Index rallied 2.2% overnight to regain the key 9,000 mark as investors bet that Japan’s main opposition party, whose leader has vowed to put more pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy, will win next month’s election…Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister whose Liberal Democratic Party has a firm lead in the opinion polls, says the Bank of Japan should employ “unlimited easing” (including bringing interest rates down to zero or even below zero) to stimulate lending, achieve a 2% to 3% inflation target, and reverse the strong yen…this is another example of the “race to the bottom” in the currency wars…Japan wants a weaker currency in order to give its exporters an edge in the global market…whoever wins Japan’s election will have to pick a new Governor of the Bank of Japan in April…when incumbent Masaaki Shirakawa’s term finishes…since starting in 2008, Shirakawa has continued the policy of monetary easing, but failed to solve Japan’s long-term issues with deflation…the yen, by the way, is one of six currencies that makes up the U.S. Dollar Index – its weighted value is 13.6%…

Today’s Markets

China’s Shanghai Composite sank another 16 points overnight to 2014…the struggling Index could be putting in a double bottom after briefly falling below 2000 in late September…European shares are down slightly in late trading while North American markets will try to finish the week on a positive note…as of 7:15 am Pacific, the Dow is down nearly 50 points at 12495…the TSX is off 46 points while the Venture Exchange is up a point at 1223…if the Venture can’t hold the 1215 to 1253 support band on a closing basis, the risk of a re-test of the 1154 low in late June becomes more likely…

Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)

There are many examples of common sense value on the Venture at the moment, and Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) is certainly one of them…historically, Greencastle has made a significant run every couple of years and then trades down to cash value or even slightly below…Greencastle touched 8 cents this week – almost its low for the last decade – and closed yesterday at 9.5 cents, meaning its current market cap (4.4 million) is 30% below its working capital position of $6.3 million (as of June 30)…Greencastle’s burn rate is about $125,000 per month…traditionally, the company has funded itself internally through its oil royalties but those have been drying up…an interesting new situation, however, is that Greencastle holds nearly 8 million shares of Deveron Resources and rumor has it the Deveron IPO will be successfully launched later this month at 25 cents…Greencastle put its Blackwater property into Deveron and also took a sizeable position in the company…post-IPO, Greencastle will hold approximately 70% of Deveron…

From a chart perspective, what’s interesting about Greencastle is that there has been a notable divergence between price and RSI recently…this is usually a bullish sign…below is a VGN 5-year weekly chart from John…as always, perform your own due diligence…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

The TSX Gold Index broke important technical support Tuesday when it fell below the 328 level…it looks like it could be ready to bounce higher but a test of the 300 support area seems likely during the last half of the month…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart…

If Alberta Can’t Balance Its Budget, Who Can?

If Alberta, one of the most prosperous and conservative jurisdictions in North America, can’t balance its books, is there any hope that any government can – provincial, state or federal?…Alberta Premier Alison Redford has backed away from her pledge to balance the books, saying she won’t delay spending as revenues sink because of lower-than-expected Oil prices…she is defending this approach with creative language, saying Alberta will run an “operational balance” (provincial revenues will cover everything except billions in infrastructure spending, which the province will pay for by taking on debt)…Alberta is currently debt-free but is running its fifth consecutive deficit budget despite low unemployment and a relatively strong price for Oil…until now, deficits have been covered by the province’s rainy day Sustainability Fund, and Alberta expected a surplus by next year…using debt to pay for infrastructure, however, marks a change of tune in a province where former premier Ralph Klein held back on spending to balance the books… Opposition Leader Danielle Smith says the government is mismanaging its money…“Ralph Klein was able to balance the budget when oil was $30,” the Wildrose Leader said…”If there is one jurisdiction on the planet that should be able to balance its books, it should be Alberta”…

It’s another “risk off” day across the markets…as of 7:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $16 an ounce at $1,712…Silver is 32 cents lower at $32.42…Copper is flat at $3.44…Crude Oil is down 28 cents to $86.04 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down nearly one-fifth of a point to 80.97…

Global Gold Demand & Supply Fall In Q3

Global Gold demand dropped 11% in the three months to September from record levels seen in the same period last year, dampened mainly by fading Chinese fervor as its economy slowed, with stronger Indian demand stemming a larger fall, according to figures just released by the World Gold Council…Chinese Gold consumption fell 8% in the July to September period to 176.8 tonnes with both jewelry and investment demand hurt by weaker economic growth…Chinese bar and coin investment dropped 12% to 53 tonnes, while jewelry buying fell 5% to 123.8 tonnes….”The fall in Chinese demand coincides with weaker economic numbers in China in Q3 but there is some evidence that the economic situation is stabilizing in China and recovery is starting,” the WGC stated…”It’s possible that the stimulus measures have worked and the economy has bottomed out…If that’s true, we won’t see a repeat of this Chinese weakness in the fourth quarter”…China is second to India as the world’s biggest Gold consumer…Indian demand rose in the last quarter by 9% to 223.1 tonnes, reversing the trend of the previous three quarters, with pent-up consumer demand lifting the market…global jewelry consumption dipped 2% to 448.8 tonnes, while coins and bar demand fell 30%…European investors, particularly in German-speaking markets, accounted for half of the 128.1-tonne decrease in bar and coin demand..

Meanwhile, mine production fell 1% from the year-ago quarter to 731.6 metric tons, the largest since Q3 2008…this was due, the WGC stated, to disappointing results for a number of operations, lower-than-expected growth at a number of new or recovering mines, and the Q3 strikes in South Africa…

U.S. Jobless Claims Jump

The Labor Department reported this morning that Superstorm Sandy drove U.S. weekly jobless claims up to 439,000 (the highest in 18 months) while consumer prices rose slightly last month as higher rents and costlier food offset cheaper gas…the Labor Department stated that jobless claims increased by 78,000 mostly because a large number of applications were filed in states damaged by the storm…people can claim unemployment benefits if their workplaces close and they don’t get paid…the storm has affected the claims data for the past two weeks and may distort reports for another two weeks, the department said…the four-week average of applications, a less volatile number, increased to 383,750…

Euro Zone Slips Into Recession

The euro zone fell into a recession in July-September, the second since the global financial crisis in 2009, as French resilience could not make up for a slump across Europe and the three-year debt crisis slowed Germany to a crawl…economic output in the 17-country euro zone fell 0.1% in the third quarter following a 0.2% drop in the second quarter…those two quarters of contraction put the euro zone’s 9.4 trillion euro ($12 trillion) economy officially in recession, although Italy and Spain have been contracting for a year already and Greece is suffering an outright depression…Germany and France, the euro zone’s biggest economies, could not save the bloc from a double-dip recession even though both countries managed 0.2% growth in the quarter…large countries like Italy, Spain and the Netherlands all contracted and Belgium, a big exporter, stagnated…millions of people across Europe have protested against government spending cuts that EU policymakers say are crucial to ending the debt crisis but which others blame for the economic contraction…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, though Japan’s Nikkei Index bucked the trend and ended at a 1-week high…China’s Shanghai Composite fell 25 points to 2030…the country’s ruling Communist Party unveiled its new leadership line-up yesterday to steer the world’s second-largest economy for the next five years, with Vice President Xi Jinping taking over from outgoing President Hu Jintao as party chief…European shares are finishing the day moderately lower while North American markets are trying to reverse their slide…as of 7:15 am Pacific, the Dow is up 22 points at 12593…the TSX is off 83 points while the Venture Exchange, which has had a rough week, is down another 23 points to 1236…

Venture Exchange Updated Chart

The Venture Exchange has displayed some weakness in recent days, so it’s a good time now to take another look at the chart to remind our readers of key support levels…the RSI(2) is near a low extreme, suggesting the support band between 1215 and 1253 has a good chance of holding…

TSX Chart

The RSI(2) for the TSX is at an even more extreme level than what we’re seeing for the Venture…the support band for the TSX is between 11780 and 11900 as John shows in the 9-month daily chart below…

Dow Industrials Chart

RSI(2) levels for the Dow are also at an extreme low with a support band between 12500 and 12600…

Huldra Silver Updated Chart

Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX) announced completion of the final tranche of a $6.9 million financing yesterday, along with resumption of operations at their Merritt mill where concentrate is again being produced after a brief shutdown for upgrades…CFO Garth Braun also stepped into the market to purchase nearly $100,000 worth of shares Tuesday (60,000 between $1.52 and $1.54)…as of 7:15 am Pacific, HDA is up 2 pennies to $1.43…below is an interesting 2-year weekly chart from John that shows how HDA retreated to the top of the handle yesterday, a normal retracement after a recent breakout from that area…

Note: Jon holds a position in HDA.

Gold has traded in a range between $1,719 and $1,732 so far today…as of 8:15 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,726…Silver is 16 cents higher at $32.66…Copper is off a penny at $3.44…Crude Oil is up 36 cents at $85.74 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 81.11…

U.S. Retail Sales Down

U.S. retail sales fell in October for the first time in three months as Superstorm Sandy slammed the brakes on automobile purchases, suggesting a loss of momentum in spending early in the fourth quarter…sales dipped 0.3% (economists polled by Reuters were expecting a 0.2% drop), the Commerce Department said this morning, after an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in September that was previously reported as a 1.1% rise…

Fed Leans Toward Clearer Guidance

The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that the Federal Reserve is inching closer to revamping its communication strategy by stating more explicitly than before what would get officials to start raising short-term interest rates…under a new approach being considered by senior officials, the Fed would state how high inflation would have to rise or how low unemployment would have to fall before it would begin moving rates, which have been near zero since late 2008…

Business Roundtable Lobbies For Congressional Deal

With a heated election season in the rear-view mirror, executives are calling on the White House and congressional leaders to head off a self-imposed deadline that could bring $600 billion in spending cuts and higher taxes early in 2013 if they are unable to reach a deal on cutting the federal deficit…the Business Roundtable yesterday kicked off a print, radio and online ad campaign on which it plans to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars featuring the chiefs of Honeywell International, Xerox and United Parcel Service calling on lawmakers to resolve the “fiscal cliff”…in an opinion piece published last night on the Wall Street Journal’s website, Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein urged the business community and the Obama administration to compromise and reconcile so as not to derail the fragile recovery…one of the more dramatic warnings of the consequences of allowing the U.S. economy to go over the fiscal cliff came from Honeywell CEO David Cote…”If the last debt ceiling discussion was playing with fire, this time they’re playing with nitroglycerin,” Cote said in an interview…”If they go off the cliff, I think it would spark a recession that’s a lot bigger than economists think. Some think it would just be a small fire. I think it could turn into a conflagration”…

One of the biggest problems with the “fiscal cliff” is the mainstream media and its handling of it…as one writer stated the other day, the mainstream media is “a bunch of egomanical ringmasters in search of a circus”…indeed, they always tend to inflate an issue and engage in outright fear-mongering…ironically, the way the media is playing this story actually enhances the chances of a resolution…

U.S. Deficit Rises In October

Despite higher tax revenues, the U.S. deficit increased significantly in October which further underscores the point that Washington primarily has a spending problem, not a taxation problem (though the tax code does need to be completely overhauled)…the deficit rose to $120 billion in October, bigger than forecasts for a $114 billion gap and up from $98 billion in the same period last year…growth in expenditures outpaced rising receipts, deepening the deficit…outlays grew to $304 billion from around $262 billion in the same month last year while receipts rose to $184 billion from $163 billion…meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that President Obama will begin budget negotiations with congressional leaders Friday by calling for $1.6 trillion in additional tax revenue over the next decade, far more than Republicans are likely to accept and double the $800 billion discussed in talks with GOP leaders during the summer of 2011….

Today’s Markets

Asian markets edged up overnight with Japan’s Nikkei Index ending a 7-session losing skid…European shares are marginally lower today while North American markets continue to be under pressure…the Dow, which has hit a 3-and-a-half month low, has retreated 57 points to 12699 while the TSX, down in six out of the last eight sessions, is off another 115 points to 12020…the Venture Exchange suffered its worst session – a loss of 19 points – since October 23 yesterday, albeit on fairly light volume…as of 8:15 am Pacific, the Index is down 17 more points to 1270…the range since the beginning of September has been 1236 to 1349 and the rising 100-day moving average (SMA) is currently sitting at 1260…since October 15, the Index has traded in a narrow 44-point range between 1278 and 1322…as John shows in the 3-month daily chart below, the Index could not sustain a break above the SMA-20 yesterday which means a test of the 100-day SMA at 1260 is highly likely…

SilverCrest Mines (SVL, TSX-V)

SilverCrest Mines (SVL, TSX-V), a strong performer this year and certainly worthy of our readers’ due diligence, reported third quarter results this morning that included 152,000 ounces of Silver sold (558,000 Silver equivalent ounces) and earnings of $2.2 million or 3 cents per share on total revenues of nearly $17 million…record Silver production in the third quarter has enabled SilverCrest to increase annual Silver production guidance from 435,000 ounces to 535,000 ounces…the company is on track to meet its annual production guidance of 33,500 Gold ounces…as of 8:15 am Pacific, SVL is off 9 cents to $2.81…below is an updated 2.5-year weekly chart that shows resistance at $3.17 and very strong support at $2.37…

SantaCruz Silver Mining (SCZ, TSX-V)

We continue to keep an eye on SantaCruz Silver Mining (SCZ, TSX-V) which is focused on advanced-staged projects and near-term production possibilities in Mexico…the stock has a good run since the early summer when it was trading slightly below $1 per share…from a technical perspective, what’s interesting to note is that SCZ may have formed a “cup with handle” pattern though this interpretation would be invalid if the share price were to fall below $2.17 on a closing basis…it’s currently just above $2.20…in any event, this is an interesting situation to keep on one’s radar screen over the coming weeks and months – especially, of course, is Silver takes off…as of 8:15 am Pacific, SCZ is up 3 pennies at $2.27…

Parlane Resources (PPP, TSX-V)

Parlane Resources (PPP, TSX-V) has commenced a 1,500-metre drill program at its Bear Big Property in the Blackwater district, strategically situated between New Gold Inc.’s (NGD, TSX) Blackwater and Capoose deposits…five target areas are being tested…

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) Chart Update

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) found resistance at $1.05 recently, as expected, and that is certainly a critical level from a technical standpoint that it must overcome in order to resume its upward trend…as of 8:15 am Pacific, GQC is down a penny at 82 cents…the rising 200-day SMA (75 cents) continues to provide support…

CB Gold Inc. (CBJ, TSX-V)

An interesting out-performer recently has been CB Gold Inc. (CBJ, TSX-V) which has been generating some positive drill results from its Vetas Gold Project in Colombia with success at targeting and expanding numerous vein systems…resistance is strong at $1.10, just above the rising 300-day SMA (it moved briefly above the 300-day earlier this year and then retreated to 80 cents)…a good Gold play to keep on one’s radar screen over the coming weeks in the event of a breakout or a pullback…as of 8:15 am Pacific, CBJ has gained 4 cents to $1.07…

Note:  Jon holds share positions in GQC and PPP.