After its worst quarter in nearly half a century – a 23% drop in the April-May-June period – Gold has started the 3rd quarter of 2013 on an encouraging note…Gold celebrated Canada Day with a nearly $20 jump and is trying to maintain and add to those gains today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is flat at $1,253 after climbing as high as $1,269…Silver is down 6 cents at $19.59 (John has updated charts in this edition of Morning Musings)…Copper is flat at $3.14…Crude Oil is up 99 cents at $98.87 while the U.S. Dollar Index has surged nearly half a point to 83.41…
More signs that a bottom in Gold can’t be far off – just about every day, banks and other financial institutions continue to trim their Gold price forecasts…that’s the thing to do these days, which of course is just the opposite of what was happening at this time 2 years ago…Barclays yesterday said it’s now looking for an average of $1,200 an ounce for this 3rd quarter and $1,393 for the full year…“While the physical market was able to suspend the downward trajectory of Gold in April following hefty disinvestment, this time, preliminary data suggest a much weaker physical market footing,” Barclays said…“Cash negative ETP holdings have grown, keeping Gold vulnerable in the near-term”…
Barclays continued, “Gold has been exposed to further downside following firmer equity markets, a firmer dollar and firmer-than-expected U.S. housing data, which has compounded the weakness after the hawkish Fed press conference…given record gross short positioning on Comex, weaker-than expected macro data could see a bounce in prices, but Gold has sidelined supportive macro factors over the past few months and the appeal of alternative yield-bearing assets has only exacerbated the negative sentiment towards Gold“…
Frank Holmes, President and CEO of U.S. Global Investors, made some insightful comments as usual regarding Gold in his weekly Investor Alert (www.usfunds.com) issued Saturday, plus he provided the following updated chart from Bloomberg which strongly suggests that at some point in the not-too-distant future, shorts are going to get severely burned when Gold “unexpectedly” comes roaring back…Barclays and others were hiking their Gold price forecasts 2 years ago when the Year-Over-Year Percent Change Oscillator for bullion was giving a sell signal (circled), whereas now it’s giving a screaming buy signal…this isn’t to say Gold can’t drop another 10% or so from current levels, but don’t let the Gold-bashers mess with your head when you see a long-term chart like this…
Holmes made an interesting comment regarding the media and money managers, many of whom are finding it fashionable right now to attack Gold…”There seems to be an inherent emotional bias against Gold by many in the financial media and among money managers, especially after Gold corrects,” Holmes stated…”Billions of dollars lost in Gold makes for sensational headlines, yet two darling technology stocks have also taken it on the chin…I find it interesting that the naysayers aren’t talking about the fact that Facebook and Apple have caused more destruction in market capitalization over the past year than the biggest Gold ETF“…
Today’s Markets
Japan’s Nikkei average hit a new 1-month high overnight, climbing 246 points or 1.8% to close at 14099…sentiment among Japanese manufacturers has moved into positive territory for the first time in 2 years in the 3 months to June, according to the Bank of Japan’s main economic indicator, the Tankan survey…the headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment came in at 4 yesterday, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of a 3 reading, according to a Reuters poll…this was also a dramatic 12-point rise from the previous quarter’s result which came in at -8…market watchers were hotly anticipating the results of the Tankan as a gauge of the effectiveness of ‘Abenomics’, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies of aggressive monetary stimulus, fiscal spending and structural reform, designed to revive the economy from 15 years of deflation and help achieve a 2% inflation target…
China’s Shanghai Composite got back above the 2000 level overnight as it gained 11 points to close at 2007…critical technical support is around 1950…John’s latest chart for the Shanghai is quite bearish and leads us to believe there’s a substantial risk of a drop of more than 10% to the 1700 level…the situation in China is of major concern – economic growth is on a downward trajectory, deflation is appearing, and the government is trying to reign in a dangerous $6 trillion shadow banking system…China’s regulators, and a growing number of economists, policy makers and investors, are concerned that legitimate banks are using lightly regulated wealth management products to repackage old loans and prop up risky companies and projects that might not otherwise be able to borrow money…sound familiar?…that’s not all the Chinese have to deal with at the moment…President Xi Jinping said in a speech reported by Xinhua news agency over the weekend that the performance of leaders should not be evaluated simply by GDP growth, underscoring the government’s recent reluctance to embark on further stimulus programs…Xi said factors like welfare improvement, social development and environmental indicators should also be used to assess leaders…
European shares are slightly lower in late trading overseas, while the Dow has gained 48 points through the first 30 minutes of trading…the TSX, which of course was closed yesterday, is up 59 points while the Venture has climbed 6 points to 887 as it touches its 10-day moving average (SMA)…
How To Prosper From Developments In British Columbia
We’re bullish on exploration in general across British Columbia given the political uncertainty that was removed in May and the strong potential for impressive results from different areas with aggressive work being carried out from the Merritt area all the way up to Iskut and Telegraph Creek…whether it’s Gold and Silver, Copper-Gold porphyry systems, tungsten or even graphite, there are some very interesting developments on the B.C. exploration scene that we’ll be covering in even more detail in the coming days and weeks…
As excited as we are about Colorado Resources‘ (CXO, TSX-V) North ROK Copper-Gold discovery, we’re even more intrigued by the Telegraph Creek area where Pete Bernier’s Prosper Gold (PGX.H, TSX-V) continues to gear up for a major drill program (permits are in place) at the Copper Creek Property once Exchange approval is received for the company’s qualifying transaction with Firesteel Resources (FTR, TSX-V)…adjoining Copper Creek to the west and the south is Garibaldi Resources‘ (GGI, TSX-V) 100%-owned Grizzly Property which is still early-stage but has been seriously overlooked by investors due to GGI’s focus on its Mexican assets…combined (and this is important), the Copper Creek and Grizzly properties cover a whopping 240 square kilometres…there are strong similarities between the 2, though Copper Creek is much more advanced from an exploration standpoint…below is a 3D perspective looking north (taken from Garibaldi’s web site, we’ve added the star that highlights Mount Kaletsa – could be the “heat engine” that’s driving the fluids to create this potentially massive mineralized system)…it’s interesting to note that over the last year, Teck Resources (TCK, TSX) has staked right up to the southern boundary of the Grizzly…
First off, it’s critical to point out that there’s probably no geologist on the planet more capable of figuring out the Copper Creek mineralized system than Dirk Tempelman-Kluit…his re-interpretation of Blackwater allowed Richfield Ventures to make a massive Gold-Silver discovery that led to a $500 million takeover of the company by New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) in 2011…Tempelman-Kluit is a master at data compilation and interpretation, among other things, and the fact that Prosper Gold settled on this project – after Bernier’s team looked at so many after Blackwater – speaks volumes about what potentially could be under the ground in this fascinating area at the top of B.C.’s “Golden Triangle”…Firesteel drilled just 23 holes since 2004 and got highly encouraging results (CUCR-04-05, for example, cut .44% Cu and 0.32 g/t Au over the entire length of the hole – 242 metres), but to take this property to the next level requires a geologist with Tempelman-Kluit’s expertise and foresight… the Copper Creek system is open in every direction and has really only been barely scratched…it also hasn’t been tested at depth…deep drilling has found exceptional grades at other B.C. Cu-Au porphyry deposits including of course Red Chris…
As regular BMR readers know, we followed Richfield very closely since late 2009 when the company reported its first major drill hole…the level of execution with regard to that exploration program was phenomenal and the best we’ve ever seen…some of our readers made fortunes…right down to the drilling company, Bernier has the exact same team with him at Prosper Gold to attack Copper Creek in the same professional, systematic fashion as Blackwater…
Below are a few sentences from a 2011 technical report on the 7,000-hectare Copper Creek Property:
“The property exhibits great potential both in mineable size and grade…after reviewing numerous assessment and Minfile reports on the property, it is apparent that the Copper grades, at least near-surface, are an average of 0.48% over extensive lengths, depending on the drill hole…trenching has reproduced similar numbers, and some grab samples returned values as high as 17.2% Copper…the onsite topography…suggests a large-sized potential deposit as the topography mimics the stratigraphy, so those areas that are under moss or devoid of outcrop and have never been drilled show great potential in continued mineralization on proximity alone…the extensive roadside locations of outcrop that were splashed with azurite, malachite, pyrite, pyrrhotite and a variety of other (as yet unknown) sulphides demonstrate the promising potential of an area that extends beyond one km in any direction, with deep subsurface drilling yet to establish the true extent to depth.”
The Grizzly – An Extension Of Copper Creek, Or Vice-Versa?
Though no holes have been drilled into the Grizzly for about 40 years, there is ample geological and geophysical evidence that a link exists between Copper Creek and the Grizzly…as a result, we’re quite certain Bernier’s Prosper Gold already has a keen interest in the Grizzly but first they must close the Copper Creek deal…
According to a publicly available 2010 technical report, the size of a magnetic target at the Grizzly is approximately 6 km long and 3 km wide…this is a huge property – 17,000 hectares…no significant drill program has ever been carried out at the Grizzly despite some very encouraging results from a limited amount of historical work…in 1988, for example, Corona completed prospecting, rock sampling, an an extensive soil geochemical survey that confirmed significant Gold values associated with the Copper mineralization in the western corner of the property…an airborne survey was completed in 2006 and revealed the following:
“For comparative purposes this survey covered the southern part of Firesteel’s Copper Creek Property…results of the airborne magnetic survey showed that the rock units and structures which underlie the Copper Creek prospects appear to continue into the large area of low relief within the Garibaldi claims and identified several magnetic anomalies which are similar to the magnetic anomalies that are associated with the mineralized zones which comprise the Copper Creek Property; this area is referred to as the “South Target”…during 2007 and 2008 Garibaldi completed orientation soil geochemical surveys which reportedly returned Copper values within the anomalous range determined by Firesteel for the Copper Creek property, however the surveys only covered a small fraction of the prospective area and will need to be expanded to cover the area of interest defined by the airborne magnetic survey…during late 2008 Garibaldi completed a comprehensive literature review for the Copper Creek and Grizzly properties and compiled all available technical data“…(underlined part is our emphasis)…
Geological modeling of the 2006 airborne survey, and a trial IP survey, were carried out in 2009 in order to assess the geological similarities between the Copper Creek and Grizzly properties…the results were very encouraging according to the technical report…what’s also interesting, the report stated, is that “In addition to the potential for porphyry Copper occurrences, there is also potential for structurally controlled Gold deposits similar to the Snip deposit…a significant zone of Gold mineralization was identified immediately southeast of the Grizzly Property during construction of the Golden Bear Mine access road in the late 1980’s”…
The bottom line is that this part of the Golden Triangle – Copper Creek and the Grizzly – has been under-explored and holds immense geological possibilities…there is size to this system, and now the puzzle is in the hands of one of the brightest geologists in the business…our prediction is that Dirk Tempelman-Kluit has another major discovery brewing…this means serious wealth-creating possibilities for investors in Prosper Gold, Firesteel Resources and Garibaldi Resources…
Aspen Grove Area
As we’ve previously mentioned, one of the most prospective properties in the Iskut area is West Cirque Resources‘ (WCQ, TSX-V) Castle Property which is part of the company’s joint venture deal with Freeport-McMoRan of Canada…it’s about 15 km west of North ROK and has all the signatures of a porphyry system…keep an eye on developments there…but West Cirque is active in other areas of the province and one of those is the very prospective region between Merritt and Princeton that could really heat up this summer…it’s part of the Quesnel Trough, a Mesozoic volcanic arc containing almost all of B.C.’s porphyry deposits currently in production…WCQ’s Aspen Grove Project is in between New Gold’s New Afton Mine (85 km to the north) and the Copper Mountain Mine 45 km to the south…early this year, West Cirque announced that it had acquired a 100% interest in 37 claims (5,269 hectares) covering an extensive belt of alkalic porphyry Copper-Gold-Silver mineralization…they have since quietly expanded their land position to nearly 8,000 hectares…below is a map showing WCQ’s land position in blue…the company is focusing on at least 6 mineralized zones as reported in news earlier this month (June 11 and June 17)…
Updated West Cirque Chart
Volume has picked up considerably in WCQ in recent weeks, and it climbed as high as 45 cents June 19…the rising 50 and 100-day moving averages (SMA’s) converge around 27.5 cents, so that’s one area of support along with a very solid base at 20 cents as John’s 3-year weekly chart points out…WCQ closed Friday at 35 cents…WCQ is definitely one to watch over the summer…
Fjordland Exploration (FEX, TSX-V)
Fjordland Exploration (FEX, TSX-V) which closed Friday at just 3.5 cents, is certainly worth our readers’ due diligence as it has partnered with a major Japanese company – Sumac Mines Mines Ltd., a subsidiary of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. – to further explore the promising 2,600-hectare Dillard Property to the east of Aspen Grove…a 2,000-metre drill program is scheduled to begin next month…FEX has been gradually firming up after sinking to a penny in December…as John’s chart shows, FEX has excellent support at 2 cents (resistance at 4 cents)…keep that in mind in the event there’s another pullback in the Venture…
GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) Update
Also on the discovery theme, but in a different part of the world…volatility continues in GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) which traded as high as 57 cents in June before pulling back to close the month at 40 cents…there are many reasons to be bullish about the drilling prospects for the company’s targets along the newly-identified Guama trend adjacent to last year’s Romero discovery at the Las Tres Palmas Project in the Dominican Republic…drilling at Guama started in mid-May, so initial results can’t be far off…despite the drop from 57 cents to a low last week of 32.5 cents, the GoldQuest chart remains quite positive as John outlines below…the 50-day SMA at 37.5 cents continues to rise…GQC is looking strong so far this morning, opening at 42 cents where it continues to trade as of 7:00 am Pacific…
Updated Silver Charts
“Alongside Gold’s weakness, which is also pulling Silver down with it, concerns about the Chinese economy are no doubt also weighing on the price,” Commerzbank pointed out last week…”China was the world’s second-largest Silver consumer last year behind the United States…this year, however, China’s Silver imports in the first 5 months of the year – at 991 tons – are nearly 12% down on last year”…
Primary Silver producers, though there aren’t a lot of them, are getting hit particularly hard these days with the metal trading below $20 an ounce…one small casualty last week was Huldra Silver (HDA, TSX-V) whose high-grade Treasure Mountain resource near Hope, B.C., isn’t even profitable at current Silver prices…
Silver has a strong support band between $17.50 and $19.50 – $17.50 hasn’t been tested yet but we believe there’s a good chance it will be tested during this second half of 2013…
Silver 3-Year Weekly Chart
Silver Long-Term Chart
RSI(2) is at a very low 1.8% – such extreme oversold conditions can’t last forever…this is the opposite of what occurred in late 2010/early 2011 during Silver’s run to $50 an ounce…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in FEX or WCQ. Jon holds share positions in GGI and GQC.
