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Gold has traded between $1,258 and $1,276 so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $16 an ounce at $1,274 after yesterday’s tumble…Silver is up 19 cents at $17.11…Copper is flat at $2.49…Crude Oil has added $1 a barrel to $45.52 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed one-quarter of a point to 94.86…

Respected Scotiabank economist Pat Mohr has raised her Gold price forecast for this year, and made these comments regarding bullion in her latest edition of the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index published yesterday:

“In contrast to many commodities, Gold prices have strengthened in recent months – a welcome development for the Toronto Stock Exchange & the TSX Venture – the home of more than 60% of the world’s publicly graded Gold prices,” Mohr observed. “Uncertainty over global growth and the pressure on some Oil-related currencies (the Russian ruble) has given Gold a renewed bid as a safe haven.

“The recent rise in Gold has occurred alongside a strong U.S. dollar, with investors possibly doubting whether the Fed will actually tighten monetary policy near-term,” said Mohr. “However, assuming the Fed lifts the federal funds rate in 2015:Q2 (possibly in June), Gold prices would be checked. Nevertheless, we have upwardly revised the revised price forecast for Gold to an average U.S. $1,250–1,275 for 2015-16.

“The outlook for the physical Gold market appears to be fairly strong, with record or near-record bullion imports into India in 2014:H2” as the Reserve Bank of India remove the 80:20 rule on Gold bullion imports on November 28, 2014,” she observed. “Interestingly, world Gold mine production could actually decline in 2017, given the deferral of new mine development in recent years.”

Mohr sees commodity prices bottoming during the first half of this year, and that’s what John’s latest CRB chart posted yesterday also suggests…if history is any guide, the Venture should start trending higher prior to when commodity prices actually bottom…

J.P. Morgan Warns About Oil Collapse Impact In Canada

“There will be blood” – 4 words of warning from a major U.S. bank regarding Canada and the impact of the collapse in Oil prices…J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. states in a new report, “Last week’s brief (Bank of Canada) statement mentioned ‘Oil’ 10 times and the insurance cut demonstrated the BoC’s focus on mitigating downside risks from the Oil patch slump, especially given that we have so far only witnessed the tip of the iceberg in terms of direct damage (especially regarding energy-sector capex and employment,” they said in a section of the report titled “There will be blood,” referring to capital expenditures and jobs.

“Further, the Jan. 21 statement introduced ‘financial stability risks,’ which are particularly worrisome given stretched household debt levels and frothy housing markets.”

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite fell 51 points or 1.5% overnight with insurance firms leading the sell-off…Japan’s Nikkei average, meanwhile, posted a slight gain overnight…

Europe

European markets are modestly lower in late trading overseas…deflationary concerns continue to grow in the euro zone…prices fell by 0.6% year-on-year in January, below the 0.5% slide forecast by analysts polled by Reuters, and worse than December’s 0.2% price fall…

Reuters reported this morning that Greece’s finance minister has confirmed that the government will not cooperate with the EU and IMF mission bankrolling the country and will not seek an extension to the bailout program…Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the euro zone finance ministers’ group who is in Athens for talks with the new government, said the 2 sides would decide what would happen next before the program ends February 28…

North America

The Dow is down 101 points as of 8:00 am Pacific…the Commerce Department reported this morning that Q4 GDP expanded at a 2.6% annual rate after the 3rd quarter’s 5% blistering pace…

Falling Oil prices, a soaring dollar and concern about weaker global demand have increasingly pessimistic analysts predicting S&P’s 500 companies will see no earnings growth at all in the first quarter of 2015…

The TSX is getting some support from higher Gold prices this morning and is down just 43 points as of 8:00 am Pacific…the Venture is unchanged at 667…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

Yesterday’s action in the TSX Gold Index was encouraging given the $25-$30 pullback in the Gold price…the Index held up well, falling by just over a point, and is 4 points higher at 191 as of 8:00…the action in Gold stocks yesterday suggested investors viewed the weakness in bullion as merely a healthy pullback within the context of a continuing uptrend…

This 6-month daily chart shows the Gold Index overcoming 4 Fib. resistance levels this month, from 147 through to 175, with the next resistance at 203…given the current technical posture, there’s every reason to believe we’ll see the Gold Index push higher over the near-term and test that next resistance – therefore, Gold itself should head higher after finding strong support in the $1,250’s…

Venture Updated Chart

The Venture has come under some mild pressure this week as last Saturday’s chart suggested it might, but important support is still holding…there are 2 Fib. levels of note, 664 and 654…a drop below 654 would increase the likelihood of a test of the December low…key resistance at the moment is 680…the last half of January has seen buy pressure transition into weak sell pressure…

February historically has been a favorable month for the Venture, so it’s quite possible we could see a breakout through 680 next month but support in the low 650’s will have to hold…

Castle Mountain Mining Company Ltd. (CMM, TSX-V) Update

We alerted our readers to Castle Mining Mining (CMM, TSX-V) on the morning of January 19 when the company reported some impressive high-grade drill results from its Castle Mountain Project in southern California…CMM took off from the upper 30’s and climbed as high as 55 cents – the 200-day moving average (SMA) – before consolidating at slightly lower levels…

Two days ago, the company announced that it has initiated a 9-hole follow-up drill program with 6 holes targeting the mineralization identified in CMM-060…that hole intersected 74 m of 9.1 g/t Au, including 35 m of 18.97 g/t, beginning at depths of approximately 280 m…this mineralization is deeper, higher grade over thicker widths than previous high-grade sections and bottomed in 2+ gram material…the company intends to test the extent of this mineralization laterally and at depth…

Technically, CMM’s RSI(14) is showing strong up momentum, buy pressure is increasing (CMF), and a bullish +DI/-DI crossover has also occurred…good possibilities here…as always, perform your own due diligence…

CMM is unchanged at 50 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific…

Gold Bullion Development Corp. (GBB, TSX-V) Update

What’s significant about the 6-month daily GBB chart below is the confirmed breakout above the downtrend line from the late summer, and the reversal to the upside in the 50-day SMA in December…volume has picked up noticeably, which is also a key development, and a bullish “W” has formed in the RSI(14) as the month draws to a close…

Gold Bullion is a classic fit in our theme of Gold producers and near-producers benefiting handsomely this year from a very weak Canadian dollar and cheap Oil prices…the dynamics of Gold Bullion’s 3-year high-grade rolling production start for Granada have changed dramatically from when the company issued its Preliminary Feasibility Study in the spring of last year…combined with the still very strong upside exploration potential within the LONG Bars Zone, 80% of which has yet to be drill-tested, GBB has clearly started an aggressive comeback in our view…

GBB is unchanged at 4.5 cents through the first 90 minutes of trading today…

Canada Carbon Inc. (CCB, TSX-V) Update

Canada Carbon (CCB, TSX) has caught John’s attention again with bullish signs flashing in this 3-year weekly chart…key Fib. resistance is 24 cents with CCB up half a penny in early trading today at 23.5 cents…the company continues to advance its Miller Graphite Project as reported in a news release January 13…

Graphene 3D Lab Inc. (GGG, TSX-V) Update

Also on the graphite (or graphene) front, Grapahene 3D Lab (GGG, TSX-V) is on the rebound after retracing to new support at the top of its downtrend line after breaking out above that downtrend line in late December…

GGG is up 11 cents at $1.07 as of 8:00 am Pacific…

Note:  John, Terry and Jon hold share positions in GBB.

Gold has traded between a high of $1,284 and support in the low $1,260’s so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $19 an ounce at $1,264 following yesterday’s Fed policy statement…a corrective pullback such as this is not unexpected given bullion’s sharp rise this month…Silver is off 79 cents at $17.17…Copper is down a penny at $2.48…Crude Oil has retreated 45 cents to $44.00…Crude inventories in the U.S. expanded by 8.87 million barrels to 406.7 million last week, the EIA reported yesterday…in a sign of the times, Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it will cut $15 billion of spending over the next 3 years as Big Oil digs in for what is likely to be an extended period of depressed prices…the U.S. Dollar Index is off nearly one-fifth of a point at 94.48 as of 8:00 am Pacific…

Latest USGS figures show that production of Gold by U.S. mines was 540,000 ounces (16.8 tonnes) in October, a 6% decrease compared with September output and an 11% decrease compared with that of October 2013…year-on-year U.S. Gold output is down by 7.4%, continuing the decline seen a year earlier…the U.S. is the world’s 4th largest Gold producer after China, Australia and Russia…

The currency wars continue…New Zealand’s Reserve Bank has kept policy unchanged, but significantly altered its language today, saying it expects to see a “further significant depreciation” for the kiwi and that “the exchange rate remains unjustified in terms of current economic conditions.”  That’s about as direct as a central bank can get in “talking down” its currency in order to stimulate economic growth…

The Federal Reserve is in a “wait-and-see” mode, signalling yesterday that it will keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-year…the next Fed meeting (March 17-18) will be key – that’s when officials will update their forecasts for economic output, inflation, unemployment and interest rates, so we should know by then (if not sooner depending on U.S. and global economic data over the next 6 weeks) if the Fed plans on implementing its first rate increase in nearly 10 years by June, or if a rate hike is off the table until at least later in the year…

The Fed remained upbeat about the U.S. economy, noting its “solid” growth and “strong job gains”…however, some interesting new language was included in yesterday’s statement (a subtle note of caution) – the Fed said it would be watching “international developments” as it considers its next step…if instability on the global economic front intensifies, which is very possible, the Fed may indeed have no choice but to keep rates at record lows for longer than currently anticipated…

Gold-U.S. Dollar 34-Year Comparative Chart

Historically, Gold and the U.S. dollar have had an inverse relationship – when 1 has done well, the other has been weak…recently, the 2 have been moving in tandem – in fact, as strong as the greenback has been over the last 3 months, bullion has actually performed better…right now, and perhaps for the foreseeable future, Gold and the greenback are the 2 currencies of choice among international traders and investors given the increasingly unstable world in which we live…so we’re not as concerned now as we were several months ago about a rising U.S. dollar negatively impacting bullion…

Going back more than 3 decades, Gold is the clear winner actually in terms of its performance vs. any currency including the greenback…

As you can see in this 34-year monthly chart, Gold is up 82% over that time vs. a 4.8% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index…the Dollar Index is currently at a more than 10-year high but is also approaching a long-term downtrend line in the high 90’s…

CRB Index Updated Chart

This 10-year monthly CRB chart paints a continuing bearish picture for commodities in general, though Gold appears to have decoupled from this Index…

Based on its current technical posture, there’s every reason to believe that the CRB Index – at the very least – will test the bottom of the support band between 200 and 220…so it does have further to go on the downside, likely led by Crude Oil…there’s an eery comparison between the current plunge and the 2008 collapse…in a way this is good, as the CRB needs to find a bottom…expect RSI(14) conditions to move further into oversold territory…

Canadian Dollar Update

The loonie has fallen below 80 cents U.S. for the first time since April 2009…like Oil and the CRB Index, the loonie has further to go on the downside, based on fundamental and technical factors, before it finally bottoms…the level we’re targeting is the low 70’s…

Keep in mind that the plunge in both the loonie and Oil is highly bullish for Canadian Gold producers, which is a theme we have been stressing for the last few months…Gold in Canadian dollar terms has really taken off to the upside and should remain comfortably above many companies’ forecasts, while multi-year lows in Oil will benefit open-pit producers the most…

An important support band for the loonie exists between 78 and 80 cents…that area held during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but everything is relative and the U.S. dollar is in a stronger trend now than it was back then…expect the loonie to breach its 78-80 cent support level during this first half of 2015…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian indices were broadly lower overnight, led by a 1.3% decline in China’s Shanghai Composite…the drop in Oil and some disappointing corporate earnings were the culprits…Japan’s Nikkei average slipped 190 points…

Europe

European markets were mixed today…

North America

The Dow is off 4 points as of 8:00 am Pacific…the Index is likely headed for a negative month overall as it’s currently down 3.5% for January…disappointing earnings growth has been a contributing factor in the weakness…

The TSX has lost 158 points while the Venture is down 3 points at 664…as we highlighted in a chart last weekend, the Venture may have to test support in the low 650’s before reversing higher again – so the current pullback is opening some opportunities…

Cannabix Technologies Inc. (CXB, CSE-V) Update

The overall trading pattern in Cannabix Technologies (BLO, CSE) since November remains highly encouraging as shown in this 4-month daily chart (note that this chart is in U.S. dollars – based on BLO’s OTC listing – as Stockcharts.com does not yet provide charts for CSE listings)…

For the first time since it was launched in June of last year, Cannabix has been forming an exceptionally solid base and has been rising very gradually in step with its 20-day supporting moving average currently at 13 cents U.S. (or just above 15 cents CDN)…not shown on the chart below is the 100-day SMA which has just reversed to the upside, another bullish development…

Volume also remains impressive…over the last 10 trading sessions, a total of 3.6 million Cannabix shares have changed hands in the 2 markets (CSE and OTC) with an average of 200,000 per day in Canada and 160,000 per day stateside…we expect U.S. interest in this story to build significantly as the year progresses, especially after the company’s marijuana breathalyzer prototype is unveiled (likely anytime this quarter)…

BLO is up half a penny at 17 cents on the CSE as of 8:00 am Pacific, and up slightly at 13.5 cents on the OTC…

North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) Update

One of our astute readers made some good points regarding North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) in our comments section earlier this week, and below is some additional information concerning both the technicals and the fundamentals…

North Arrow this month has broken above a downtrend line going back to last summer…in addition, the 50-day moving average (SMA) has now reversed to the upside, accumulation has replaced sell pressure as shown by the CMF, and RSI(14) is climbing an uptrend with plenty of room to still push higher at 58%…

Last week, North Arrow reported that results from a 1,500-tonne bulk sample from its important Q1–4 kimberlite at the Qilalugaq Project in Nunavut are expected in April (the 12.5 hectare Q1–4 kimberlite is the largest diamondiferous kimberlite pipe in the eastern Canadian Arctic and 1 of 8 kimberlite pipes identified within the Qilalugaq Diamond Project…Q1–4 includes inferred resources as well as extremely rare yellow diamonds found in a sampling program)…

North Arrow is also gearing up for a drill program at its Pikoo Project in Saskatchewan which has delivered very promising early results…

With President and CEO Ken Armstrong, and Chairman Gren Thomas, among others, NAR features a highly respected management group and board responsible for the discovery of many kimberlites in Canada and Africa, including of course the Diavik mine in the Northwest Territories…

NAR closed at 55 cents yesterday which should be new support at the top of a horizontal channel…

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in BLO.

Gold has traded between $1,283 and $1,293 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $5 an ounce at $1,287…Silver is up a penny at $18.04…Copper is 2 cents higher at $2.49…Crude Oil has slipped 81 cents to $45.41…inventories of U.S. commercial Crude rose more than expected last week, pushing stockpiles to the highest ever on record…the U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, is up more than one-quarter of a point at 94.29…

Not surprisingly, mergers and acquisitions among mining assets declined to the lowest in a decade last year as companies shied away from large deals and private-equity funds were slow in execution, according to a report from Ernst & Young…the value of mining mergers and acquisitions fell 49% to $44.6 billion, the lowest since 2004…the number of deals declined 23% to 544…

The Dutch central bank denies that it has increased its Gold reserves, correcting earlier information from the International Monetary Fund…several media outlets reported yesterday that based on IMF figures, DNB’s Gold stock increased last month.  “This is incorrect,” the bank said in a news release, adding that its reserves remain unchanged at 612.50 tonnes which makes up 53.9% of the country’s total foreign reserves…according to the figures from the IMF, the Dutch central bank has the 10th highest Gold reserves in the world…

With a Fed statement coming in a few hours (11:00 am Pacific) following its 2-day meeting, the potential exists for some volatility in the markets today but there ‘s just a statement coming from the Fed, no Janet Yellen news conference following this meeting…Fed officials will also not be releasing any new economic projections, but markets will be watching for any “tweaks” in language regarding the central bank’s economic assessment and policy signals…since last month’s meeting, Oil prices have continued their downward trajectory while the greenback has pushed higher – both have the effect of keeping inflation considerably below the Fed’s target rate…

China’s renminbi has clocked up another major milestone on its march toward internationalization by breaking into the top 5 most-used global payment currencies…according to data from Swift, the international currency clearing system, 2.2% of the world’s payments were conducted using the Chinese currency in December, putting it above both the Canadian and Australian dollars for the first time…

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said today it would slow the Singapore dollar’s rise against a basket of currencies, making the city state the latest country to ease monetary policy as inflation slows across much of the world and growth prospects dim…

Greek markets continue to wilt in the wake of Syriza’s election victory, with stocks and bonds being particularly hard hit by fears that the anti-austerity party could derail the terms of its financial support from its European partners…meanwhile, is Greek’s radical newly-elected prime minister trying to cozy up to Vladimir Putin?…it’s worth noting that Greece has distanced itself from calls to broaden sanctions against Russia because of the escalating conflict in Ukraine, indicating that it could be looking east to Russia (its historical ally) for support…not a wise move…

Keystone Update

The U.S. Senate is on track to pass legislation to approve TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL Oil pipeline by the end of the week, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says…because 6 Democrats have signed on as sponsors of the Keystone bill, there are expected to be enough votes for passage though not the two-thirds margin required to override a veto from President Obama…

Tensions Increase On Israel’s Northern Borders

Israel was hit by two artillery attacks along its northern border today, its military said, and Israeli forces retaliated with attacks in Lebanon…Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would respond sharply to today’s rocket and mortar attack, the second in as many days on the country’s northern borders, and news is just out that 2 Israeli soldiers were killed in the attack…the terrorist group Hezbollah, which controls southern Lebanon, claimed responsibility for the artillery fire…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite fell for a second straight day, losing 46 points or 1.4% to finish at a 1-week low after data yesterday showed December industrial profits falling an annual 8%…

Europe

European markets were mixed today…

North America

The Dow is up 8 points at 17395 through the first 2 hours of trading today…

Dow Updated Chart

The Dow continues to show some signs of weakness in this 4-month daily chart, but this market of course has been very resilient with buying rushing in on any significant dips…what the Dow could be gearing up for is a possible test again of the rising 200-day SMA just above 17000…

Apple (AAPL, Nasdaq) is higher today after reporting a blockbuster quarter yesterday, blowing past Wall Street’s most optimistic expectations…the company sold almost 9 million more iPhones than expected, while its cash pile ballooned to the point that it could buy about 480 of the S&P 500 companies outright…

In the coming days, the world’s biggest publicly traded Oil companies will report fourth-quarter earnings, offering the best look yet at the bite lower Crude prices have taken out of Big Oil…

In Toronto, the TSX is down 71 points as of 8:30 am Pacific while the Venture is off 4 points at 673…

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Update

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) has been quiet to start 2015, but that’s likely just the lull before the storm as we’re anticipating important exploration breakthroughs for GGI on no less than 4 fronts led by the expanding Rodadero high-grade discovery in Sonora State…geologically, it appears there are linkages among at least some of the dozen or so targets at the 50 sq. km Rodadero North Project which transitions from high-grade Silver near-surface in the west, confirmed through drilling at Silver Eagle, to high-grade Gold moving east…this has obvious scale to it, along with impressive grades, so it’s not surprising that at least 1 major has already had boots on the ground there…more results from Silver Eagle are expected shortly…based on the reported visuals, we expect they’ll confirm a growing system…

Also in Mexico, GGI is expected to follow up soon on some outstanding near-surface drill results from the La Patilla Gold Property in Sinaloa State including the last hole, LP-14, which cut 10.4 g/t Au over 8.5 m within a broader 30-m interval grading 3.1 g/t Au…La Patilla was acquired for its near-term exploitation potential, and the company has already negotiated a long-term agreement with the local community to allow for any future metal extraction on the property…

Meanwhile, GGI completed a strategic $1.1 million financing in December to immediately advance its suite of promising properties in B.C., highlighted by the 262-sq. km Grizzly Project in the heart of the Sheslay district…so we see a 1-2 punch with Mexico and B.C. combining to make GGI 1 of the most exciting exploration plays on the Venture in 2015…

Technically, John’s updated 3-year weekly chart shows a triple bottom on a consolidation marked by declining volume (bullish)…RSI(14) has found support and is now beginning to trend higher with plenty of room going north as it’s only at 40%…

GGI is unchanged at 17.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…

Gainey Capital Corp. (GNC, TSX-V)

Mexico is 1 of our favorite jurisdictions, and there’s another company with good things happening there that we suggest our readers check out and perform their due diligence on – Gainey Capital Corp. (GNC, TSX-V)…

GNC is an intriguing and emerging force among juniors in the prolific Sierra Madre region where the company is generating cash flow from its 300-tpd mill and processing center in Huajicori, Nayarit State…Gainey operates the only gravimetric/flotation processing center in the area…

What also has us particularly excited about Gainey is the company’s El Colomo Gold-Silver Project that covers 19,000 hectares with multiple high-grade targets…a drill program is being lined up for El Colomo which should definitely generate some excitement in the market…

Financially, Gainey is in solid shape (cash flow positive) and reported approximately $2.5 million in working capital as per its latest financials (Sept. 30)…

Technically, a confirmed breakout was confirmed in GNC yesterday above a horizontal channel that was in place since last fall between 17 and 25 cents…importantly, the breakout came on increased volume, and the ADX indicator confirms the new bullish trend…

GNC is up a penny-and-a-half at 31.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…

Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM, TSX-V) Update

Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) is steady on more results from its Coffee Project this morning, including a new area of mineralization discovered through drilling 900 m south of the Kona Gold deposit (1 of several deposits at Coffee)…

Kaminak is targeting the completion of its Coffee feasibility study by late 2015/early 2016…drilling this year will comprise continuing resource delineation infill, condemnation drilling of areas containing proposed mine infrastructure, and geotechnical and hydrological drilling…environmental and heritage baseline studies, and engineering studies into the optimal route and design of the access road, are also advancing as planned…all metallurgical sampling was completed in 2014, and composites are now at a lab undergoing leaching and other test work…

Technically, after many failed attempts since the spring of 2013, Kaminak has finally broken out above the “neckline” resistance as shown in this 2.5-year weekly chart…this is an important development and suggests more near-term gains are likely after a strong move already this month…

KAM is off 3 pennies at $1.11 as of 8:30 am Pacific…

Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB, TSX-V) Update 

Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB, TSX-V) continues to look strong…the company has found exploration success on its own and with partners in the prolific northeastern part of Nicaragua…

Overbought technical conditions last September/early October unwound in November and December, and the now-rising 50-day moving average (SMA) at 14 cents is providing new support…

Last week, Calibre announced final assay results from Phase 1 drilling at the Eastern Borosi Gold-Silver Project being financed by IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG, TSX) under an option agreement…5 Gold-Silver vein systems were tested over a combined strike length of 3 km through 40 drill holes (5,500 m), and drilling encountered high-grade zones on each of the structures…results included 5.07 m grading 13.44 g/t Au (GP14–028) and 2.76 m @ 26.48 g/t Au (GP14–030), testing the down dip portion of the Guapinol and Vancouver structures…

IAMGOLD was encouraged enough by the results to decide to launch a 5,500-m Phase 2 program to commence this quarter…

CXB has responded well to last week’s news and closed up a penny yesterday on its second-best volume day of the year so far, 774,000 shares (all exchanges)…it’s unchanged at 16.5 cents in early trading today, with the trend remaining solidly bullish…

  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI. 

Gold has traded between $1,277 and $1,298 so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $13 an ounce at $1,294…Silver is 19 cents higher at $18.09…Copper is off 6 cents at $2.49…Crude Oil is up 44 cents at $45.59 while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled more than a point to 93.89…

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the top Gold ETF, continue to trend higher…they rose 0.24% yesterday to 743.44 tonnes…

The Netherlands raised its Gold holdings for the first time in 16 years in December, data from the International Money Fund show, but emerging markets still dominated Gold-market activity among central banks in December…

Russia, which has one of the world’s largest holdings of the metal, added around 666,500 troy ounces to its 38.8-million ounce stockpile last month, according to the IMF data…Kazakhstan, meanwhile, lifted its reserves 2.2% to 6.2 million ounces, and Belarus 3.3% to 1.4 million…

Meanwhile, Russia’s fractured economy suffered another potential blow yesterday after credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s credit rating to junk, sending it below investment grade for the first time in more than a decade…the move came as a surge in fighting in Ukraine prompted the West to threaten new sanctions against the Putin regime…

Oil Update

Crude Oil has tanked almost 60% since June as the OPEC resisted calls to cut output and the U.S. pumped at the fastest pace in more than 3 decades…when markets are oversupplied, traders/investors find a price that destroys the oversupply…the question is, what will that price be in the case of Oil?…

Energy tycoon Boone Pickens predicted late last week that Crude will be back at $70 or $80 by the fourth quarter of this year…

“The reason the Oil price has dropped is because of production here in the United States,” Pickens stated in an interview with CNBC.  “No question, we were the ones that caused it, and we’ll be the ones that will fix it. And the way we fix it is our rig count will go down.  Oil producers in West Texas and North Dakota can’t drill for $45 Oil,” he added.  “In the last 30 days they’ve dropped 300 rigs.  You’re gonna reach an all-time high on the inventory of Oil, and it will be reached within the next 6 weeks, and then it will start to decline.”

According to Reuters, Oil rig counts saw their second-sharpest weekly drop in 24 years last week, but Pickens’ estimate of 300 rigs dropping in the last 30 days is too high according to data released by Baker Hughes several days ago…

The Geopolitical Factor

The 1 factor Pickens is not taking into account is geopolitics:  The Oil drop is not just about U.S. oversupply, or even a Saudi effort to maintain market share and reverse growing U.S. production…the Saudis are very concerned about regional rival Iran and how it has been extending its influence in the Middle East, from Syria to Yemen (Iranian-backed Houthi rebels seized control of the Yemeni government, heretofore pro-American, just last week)…Saudi Arabia, many officials believe, is pushing back against Iran and attempting to weaken that regime through lower Oil prices…it certainly wouldn’t be the first time in recent history that Oil has been used as a “weapon”, so to speak…

Crude Oil 19-Year Weekly Chart

The extent of technically oversold conditions in WTIC at the moment is unprecedented going back 2 decades, though this doesn’t mean that Oil has found a bottom yet…this is a deeply troubled market that appears to be in the midst of a seismic shift of historic proportions, fundamentally and technically…

Long-term support at $50 was rather weak and has been broken…at a minimum, we expect Crude to test the next long-term support level which is $35, consistent with an A-B-C corrective phase…even $20 Oil can’t be ruled out as a potential final low…

Specifically, don’t expect Oil to hit bottom until there is at least an RSI(14) divergence with price…in other words, at some point we can expect the RSI(14) to begin to push higher to “unwind” the extreme oversold conditions…this would be accompanied by a rally in the Oil price – merely a bounce, however…the “C” phase would bring a new low in the price but not in the RSI(14) – that’s the pattern to watch for to identify a possible bottom in Oil…it’s the pattern that also played out in late 2008/early 2009 when Oil crashed into the low $30’s…

Oil Price Drop Eats Canada’s Surplus

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates the annual impact of the Oil price decline on federal government finances will be about $5 billion annually, assuming current prices hold…that’s certainly an unfortunate development but quite manageable…the Ottawa-based agency said that if the price of WTIC remains just under $50 a barrel, the feds face the possibility of running a deficit of about $400 million in the fiscal year that begins in April, from a previously projected surplus of $4.9 billion…savings will have to found somewhere to offset the revenue loss and balance the books…

U.S. Dollar Index Updated Chart

Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index broke out above important resistance at 93 and immediately took off to the next Fib. level which was 96…the greenback is now catching its breath as that move was simply too fast…the pullback should certainly find support at 93 while exceptionally strong secondary support exists at the rising 50-day moving average, currently at 90…the Dollar Index is certainly overdue to retrace to its 50-day…

As strong as the dollar has been since mid-December, in particular, Gold has been outperforming it…it’ll therefore be very interesting to see how bullion behaves in the event the Dollar Index experiences its most significant correction since its bull run started last summer…

Overall, it’s important to keep in mind that the primary trend in the U.S. Dollar right now remains up, and at the very least we expect to see the Dollar Index test resistance at its long-term downtrend line in the high 90‘s…

This 6-month daily chart shows 2 uptrend lines that should underpin the Dollar Index over the coming months…meanwhile, the effects of a stronger dollar are now beginning to be felt by U.S. businesses which is why the Dow is suffering this morning…a number of Wall Street’s biggest firms missed earnings expectations as a result of the consistently strong greenback…

U.S. Dollar-Venture Comparative Chart

A strong greenback is typically a major headwind for the Venture, so a period of consolidation in the Dollar Index would relieve some pressure on the CDNX…

Below is a monthly chart going back 15 years…the Dollar Index was relatively weak during the first half of last year, which gave the Venture room to trend higher, but a major change occurred in the late summer when the greenback suddenly gained strength…the relationship between the Dollar Index and the Venture cannot be underestimated…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite fell 29 points or nearly 1% overnight following government data that showed an 8% slump in industrial profits from a year earlier…Japan’s Nikkei average, meanwhile, was buoyed by a soften yen and jumped 300 points or 1.7% to a 4-week high…

Europe

European markets closed significantly lower today, dragged down by weakness on Wall Street…

Greece and its creditors have moved toward confrontation as the country’s new leftist government has pledged to make good on promises to reverse years of public spending cuts despite warnings from Berlin and other European capitals that doing so could plunge Greece, and the euro zone, into a deeper crisis.

“There are rules, there are agreements,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said of the framework for Greece’s financial rescue. “Whoever understands these things knows the numbers, knows the situation.”

North America

The Dow is down 356 points through the first 90 minutes of trading…some earnings misses are a factor in today’s drop, but the Commerce Department also reported this morning that demand for big-ticket manufactured goods tumbled last month – a sign that U.S. businesses remain cautious about spending despite the economy’s recent momentum…orders for durable goods – products like kitchen appliances and cars designed to last at least 3 years – declined a seasonally adjusted 3.4% in December from a month earlier…that marked the second consecutive monthly drop…excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders dropped 0.8%…economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected overall orders to rise 0.3% last month…

In Toronto, the TSX is off 119 points while the Venture has lost 2 points to 672 as of 8:00 am Pacific…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) announced this morning that it has commenced a 5,000 meter drill program at new target areas within its Tireo project concessions in the Dominican Republic…the program will cover the Imperial, La Bestia, La Bestita and Guama targets, all of which are covered by concessions granted to the company…GQC struck out on the drilling front last year – they’re overdue for a very good hole…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

The TSX Gold Index actually closed higher yesterday despite the drop in Gold, a sign that the mild correction in bullion would likely be short-lived…

Up momentum in the Gold Index is strong with the next resistance level at 203 as shown in John’s 6-month daily chart…yesterday’s action was certainly bullish as the Index fell to 179 intra-day but closed at 188…as of 8:00 am today, it’s up another 5 points at 193…

AuRico Gold Inc. (AUQ, TSX) Update

AuRico Gold (AUQ, TSX) has completed a confirmed breakout above a long-term downtrend line, a significant technical development that helps underscore the major trend change in Gold producers…

AUQ will be releasing its Q4 and year-end financial results for the period ended December 31 after the market close on February 19…just over a week ago, AUQ released an initial NI-43–101 compliant indicated resource of 2.1 million AuEq ounces and an inferred resource of 3.4 million AuEq ounces at the Kemess East deposit, located 1 km east of the previously delineated Kemess underground deposit and 6.5 km north of the Kemess mill facility…

AUQ is 12 cents higher at $5.01 as of 8:00 am Pacific…

Note:  John, John and Terry do not hold share positions in GQC or AUQ.

 

Gold has traded between $1,276 and $1,296 so far today to begin the new week which is highlighted by a scheduled meeting of the FOMC…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $15 an ounce at $1,279…Silver has retreated 32 cents to $17.97…Copper has jumped 6 cents to $2.55…Crude Oil is flat at $45.67 while the U.S. Dollar Index has declined nearly half a point to 94.82…

We have updated Gold and Silver charts in today’s Morning Musings, along with a fact chart on a 5-cent play that could begin to roar again in a hurry in this much improved environment for producers and near-producers…

Despite stronger Gold prices this month, Chinese demand is still climbing as represented by withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)…Mineweb’s Lawrence Williams reported this morning that the latest figures show SGE withdrawals of 70 tonnes for the week ending January 16 – the 3rd highest weekly figure ever…

Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, noted in his weekly Investor Alert:  “The institution of the Swiss National Bank’s peg of CHF 1.20 per euro, back on September 6, 2011, was the day that Gold peaked at $1,920 per ounce. With the undoing of the peg and Gold taking off, speculation abounds as to whether the Swiss National Bank’s actions will have once again marked a turning point for Gold. In addition, Silver appears to be breaking out, too.”

Gold’s strong performance since the start of the year has convinced Goldman Sachs to make a U-turn…the bank has revised its short-term forecast, saying bullion will average $1,290 an ounce during the first 3 months of the year…they say prices will be supported by the recent massive quantitative easing program in Europe and shifting expectations that the Federal Reserve will end up hiking interest rates later in the year…the bank still remains bearish on the yellow metal over the long-term, however…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite began the week on a positive note, climbing 32 points or nearly 1% overnight to close at 3384…Japan’s Nikkei average fell slightly despite news that exports in that country posted a larger than expected increase in December from a year earlier…

Europe

European markets, still in a state of euphoria over the ECB’s QE program unveiled last Thursday, closed higher today as they generally shrugged off last night’s Greece election results…

North America

The Dow is relatively unchanged at as of 8:00 am Pacific…

The S&P 500‘s price-to-earnings ratio, which compares the price of the S&P to analyst projections of what S&P companies will earn over the next 12 months, has risen to 16.6, according to FactSet…not only is that above historical norms, but it is the highest that metric has been since March 2005…

In Toronto, the TSX is flat while the Venture is off 5 points at 673 as of 8:00 am Pacific…as we showed in our Saturday chart, the 680 area is proving to be strong resistance for the Venture and a test of Fib. support at modestly lower levels may represent a strategic buying opportunity – especially in the Gold-Silver space…

Greece Elects Radical Leftists

There’s increased uncertainty in the euro zone this morning as Greece’s anti-austerity party, Syriza, recorded a wider than expected victory in yesterday’s national elections…the market certainly saw this coming – over the past 3 months, Greece’s main stock index has shed roughly a fifth of its value, while nervous depositors have withdrawn several billion euros from the country’s banking system…

Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s radical leader who was a member of the Young Communist Society in the late 1980’s, swayed naive Greece voters in Obama fashion with his telegenic looks and promises of “social deliverance”, whatever that means …he’s now set to become prime minister of the first euro zone government openly opposed to bailout conditions imposed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund during the economic crisis…he believes in withdrawing from NATO, imposing huge taxes tax on the rich and nationalizing public services (including the banking system, which he argues should be operated for the public good and not for profits)…

So if things were already bad for Greece, we’re about to witness a Greek Tragedy…

“Today the Greek people have written history,” Tsipras stated in his victory speech last night (indeed they have).  “The Greek people have given a clear, indisputable mandate for Greece to leave behind austerity” (and, we assume, go back to their free-spending ways and unsustainable welfare state model that got them into this problem in the first place)…

There’s no doubt that for the next while at least, Syriza’s challenge to financial orthodoxy and the political establishment will inspire like-minded European movements in places such as Italy, France, Spain and Portugal…what a mess the euro zone is in, hence their embrace of the QE drug…

What The Euro Zone Really Needs

While Greece is now saddled with a delusional new leader, and expectations are high following the ECB’s decision to implement a full-scale QE program, at least someone in Europe (within the ECB, actually) is giving people the straight goods:  “There is nothing we can do as the ECB to lift growth in a lasting way,” admitted ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure over the weekend.  “We can’t do everything for Europe, we did our part on Thursday, others have to do their part.”

What European governments must do across the board is enact pro-growth policies – urgent structural reforms are required to boost investment, raise competition, cut bureaucracy, and improve labor market flexibility…but where is the political leadership and skill to do that?…ultimately, it may take a fresh economic vision from America – a popular new president with a bold free enterprise-focused plan that catches on in other parts of the world…

Is Gold In A New Bull Phase On Its Way To $3,000?

Is Gold’s move this month merely a counter-trend bounce within the context of an ongoing bear market, or is this the actual start of a powerful new bull phase underpinned by a growing frustrating with fiat currencies and global economic and political destabilization?…those are 2 schools of thought, but the strength of Gold in the face of a rising greenback and falling Oil prices over the last 2-and-a-half months goes against historical norms and suggests that the “tide may have turned” in the bullion market…

The minor pullback we’re seeing today is merely healthy profit-taking and consolidation after 3 very strong weeks to begin 2015…Gold should find strong support in the low $1,260’s, a Fib. area and previous resistance which is also just above the 200-day moving average (SMA)…

Gold 34-Year Weekly Chart

What the bears should be concerned about regarding this 34-year chart is that it’s quite possible Gold has started a “Wave 5” move that could carry it to much higher levels over the next couple of years…

Gold’s “Wave 1” move took it from the $260’s at the beginning of the decade to a high of just above $1,000 in 2008, a gain of nearly 300%…

“Wave 3” started during the 2008 financial crisis just below $700 an ounce and took Gold to an all-time high of $1,924 in the late summer of 2011, a gain of 183%…

Wave “2” was the pullback in late 2008…”Wave 4” was the correction from 2011 to a potential low of $1,130 early last November…”Wave 5“, according to Elliott theory, could produce a dramatic rise to nearly $3,000 an ounce, though we might not like the world we live in at that point…

A few critical things to keep an eye on in this chart…first, RSI(14) is showing strong up momentum and is at an appropriate level for a breakout, in the coming weeks or months, above the important 50% level…second, the gap is narrowing between +DI and -DI, so a bullish crossover in the ADX indicator could be in the works…third, sell pressure remains dominant right now on this long-term chart but an abrupt decline in this sell pressure would be another sign of rapidly changing dynamics in the Gold market…

Clearly, more time is needed to assess what might be going on here but it might be wise to “expect the unexpected”…a year ago, no one thought Oil would be trading at $45 in early 2015…a year from now, what will we be saying about Gold?…

Gold Surges In Non-U.S. Dollars

Gold held in non-U.S. dollars has been a very good place to be over the past year or so…Gold prices in euros are up approximately 18% already in 2015, compared to a 9.2% gain in dollar terms…last year, Gold prices climbed 12% in euros (and Japanese yen), compared to a 1% drop in dollar terms…

Below is a 13-month Gold performance comparative chart in euros, Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars…also, note the recent change in this shorter-term chart in the ADX indicator and buy pressure in Gold vs. the greenback…

Follow The Money

One of the major themes we’ve been emphasizing over the last couple of months is how Gold stocks – in particular producers and near-term producers – tend to perform exceptionally well in a low Oil price environment…Canadian companies also benefit from a very weak loonie (as shown above, the Gold price is rising even more dramatically in Canadian dollars)…

So last week’s financing and takeover events should serve as an early clue that 2015 could turn out to be a spectacular year for Gold stocks – producers, near-producers, and the best exploration plays…

Over just a couple of days last week, no less than 6 companies announced bought deal offerings: Romarco Minerals (R, TSX), Detour Gold (DGC, TSX), Osisko Gold Royalties (OR, TSX), Primero Mining (P, TSX), Asanko Gold (AKG, TSX), and Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX)…combined, these companies are raising a whopping $789.8 million…the previous week, Yamana Gold (YRI, TSX) unveiled a $260.2 million equity deal of its own, while Lydian International (LYD, TSX) tapped the market for $16.5 million…

Meanwhile, of course, Goldcorp (G, TSX) announced a takeover bid for junior developer Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V), offering a solid premium at the $5 per share offer price.  As Frank Holmes noted, “We view this deal as a turning point in the risks mining companies have been willing to take relative to recent transactions.”

We’ve gone through a period when Gold stocks have been absolutely hated, but that’s when the greatest opportunities almost always arise…

Gold Bullion Development Corp. (GBB, TSX-V) Update

One beaten-down junior with a very valuable asset, and a chart that tell us it’s in a new uptrend, is Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)…

The facts speak for themselves…after making an important discovery in early 2010, which we followed closely, GBB is now just 1 permit away from approval to put the Granada Gold Property into production…earlier this month, IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG, TSX) received its authorization to process Granada ore at its nearby Westwood mill, so GBB appears to be closer than ever to receiving its final nod of approval from Quebec authorities…

The LONG Bars Zone at Granada still has huge upside potential for resource growth – 80% of it is still untested (open to the east, west, north and at depth), while a property resource of 1.5 million ounces at an average grade better than 2 g/t Au has already been outlined as per the chart in the picture below…

Following a 3-year high-grade “rolling start”, which features very robust economics – especially if the loonie and Oil remain depressed – Gold Bullion is targeting production of 100,000 ounces per year over a minimum of 10 years…

Granada is in a safe jurisdiction surrounded by excellent infrastructure in a community with a strong mining tradition, Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec…

With numbers like these, based on quite conservative assumptions including $1,400 CDN Gold and a much higher Oil price, GBB’s high-grade rolling start at Granada represents a near-term game-changing moment for the company – as significant as hole #17 in the spring of 2010…

Fairmont Resources Inc. (FMR, TSX-V) Update

Another near-term producer in Quebec we like is Fairmont Resources (FMR, TSX-V) which continues to build an impressive inventory of industrial mineral properties…

In December, the company received its Certificate of Authorization allowing for up to 300,000 tonnes of titano-magnetite aggregate production annually from its flagship Buttercup Property near Chicoutimi, Quebec…most quarries in Canada are privately owned and many are exceptionally profitable…Fairmont’s management team is highly experienced in this area and believes that Buttercup offers excellent potential to drive organic growth in the company…

To learn more about the opportunity we see in FMR, click on the link below…

Technically, FMR completed a normal retrace to its rising 300-day moving average after a surge from just above a nickel to a high of 30 cents in 2014…the stock significantly out-performed the Venture last year and appears ready to do the same in 2015…

FMR is unchanged at 20 cents through the first 90 minutes of trading today…

Noront Resources Ltd. (NOT, TSX-V) Update

Noront Resources (NOT, TSX-V) is valuable to look at in the sense that it can be viewed as a Venture “bellwether” and historically has often been a good leading indicator of where this market is headed…

At the moment, NOT’s bullish signals are actually gaining strength as shown by the RSI(14) as well as the CMF and ADX indicators…we’ll watch for a reversal to the upside in the EMA(20) which would definitely be a sign of a new uptrend gaining hold…

NOT is up 1.5 cents at 31.5 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific…

Silver Short-Term Chart

Silver in December finally staged a definitive breakout above a downtrend line that was in place since the summer on this 9-month daily chart (note how the downtrend line became new support in early December)…

The December 1 dramatic move from an intra-day low of $14.15 to a close above $16 was technically highly significant…as expected, superb support was demonstrated around $15…

Last week, the metal climbed as high as $18.50 – within just a few pennies of the the Fib. 50% level resistance level…while doing so, RSI(14) edged into overbought territory which helps explain today’s pullback…

We expect Silver to find support around the December high of $17.35…

Silver Long-Term Chart

This 34-year monthly chart continues to give hope that Silver could be preparing for a powerful “Wave 5” move to the upside, though we caution that this could take some time to play out (if indeed this theory is correct)…the reasons for such a move are also not clear…for now, Silver is going along for the ride with Gold…

RSI(14) has bounced off previous long-term support which will need to hold along with key price support in the immediate vicinity of $15…

One note of concern on this chart is the sell pressure that has prevailed since the beginning of 2013, after a decade-long period of buy pressure…based on historical patterns, sell pressure could persist for a considerable time yet…

Note:  John, Terry and Jon hold share positions in GBB.  Jon also holds a share position in FMR.

TSX Venture Exchange and Gold

The Venture moved modestly higher last week, enough to push above a downtrend line in place since September, but it’s too early to predict an immediate fresh uptrend until the Index is able to overcome critical resistance at 680.  In fact, buy pressure was actually declining last week as demonstrated by the ADX indicator and that’s generally not a positive sign.

This remains a highly selective market.  The Oil and gas component of the Venture, which makes up a significant part of the Index, remains vulnerable to additional weakness given Crude’s continuing poor fundamentals and weak technicals.  Overall, the Venture always performs best in a market environment that produces a rising Canadian dollar and a declining U.S. dollar.  At the moment, the opposite dynamics are at work.  So those are key headwinds.

This 2-month Venture chart shows the strength of the resistance at 680, a Fib. level which is also the current 20-day moving average (SMA).  Failure to immediately and decisively push through this resistance will give encouragement to the bears and may result in another test of the Venture’s Fib. support at 654 – in other words, about a 4% decline from Friday’s 678 close.

Venture 2-Month Daily Chart

Venture 6-Month Daily Chart

The good news with this 6-month chart is that it’s reasonable to expect the Index to find its footing in the low 650’s on any pullback.  That’s not only a Fib. area, but the downtrend line – which was resistance previously – now represents potential new support.  In TA, a throwback to the downtrend line following a breakout is a common occurrence.  It’s also a healthy one as it can help solidify support.

Bollinger band width is currently near its previous low, so this suggests an increased likelihood of volatility perhaps in the week ahead.  Volatility will take the form of either a sudden move to the upside, or a test of support in the low 650’s.

The Seeds Have Been Planted (And Continue To Be Planted) For The Next Big Run In Gold Stocks

There’s no better cure for low prices than low prices. The great benefit of the collapse in Gold prices in 2013 is that it forced producers (at least most of them) to start to become much more lean in terms of their cost structures. Producers, big and small, have started to make hard decisions in terms of costs, projects, and rationalizing their their overall operations. Exploration budgets among both producers and juniors have also been cut sharply. In addition, government policies across much of the globe are making it more difficult (sometimes impossible) for mining companies to carry out exploration or put Gold (or other) deposits into production, thanks to the ignorance of many politicians and the impact of radical and vocal environmentalists (technology has made it easier for groups opposing mining projects to organize and disseminate information, even in remote areas around the globe). Ultimately, all of these factors are going to eventually create a supply problem and therefore great opportunities in Gold and quality Gold stocks.  Think about it, where are the next major Gold deposits going to come from?  On top of that, grades have fallen significantly just over the past decade.

Gold

Gold enjoyed another solid week, climbing $14 an ounce to close at $1,294.  For a brief period, bullion was above $1,300 for the first time since last August.  Impressively, this came despite a huge run-up in the U.S. Dollar Index as the ECB finally caved in and succumbed to the temptation of the QE drug, the highly potent street variety.  They’ll be addicted to that for quite some time.  The euro zone is fighting obvious deflationary pressures, but different rounds of aggressive QE by the Fed did not spark any inflationary fires in the U.S. as expected.

Gold is attracting a “safe haven” bid during this time of turmoil and a “race to the bottom” in the global currency markets.  The euro probably has a lot further to fall, not to mention other currencies like the loonie and the yen.  The Bank of Canada has lowed its interest rate for the first time in nearly 6 years.

Technically, Gold is up against some challenges around $1,300.  RSI(14) on today’s 6-month daily chart is in overbought territory, though one cannot rule out the possibility of an extended period of overbought conditions like we’ve seen in the U.S. Dollar Index.  In fact, there are some striking similarities between Gold’s move over the last month and the beginning of the greenback’s ascent last summer.  The Dollar Index has been extremely resilient as dips have been minor and brief in duration.  It’ll be fascinating to see how Gold behaves over the coming weeks after a 10% run this month.  It’s up 14.5% since its early November low of $1,130, while the Dollar Index has advanced 8% since that time.  They are moving mostly in tandem, unusual in an historical context.

Gold 6-Month Daily Chart

The nearest support levels for Gold are $1,290 and the low $1,260’s.  Major chart resistance is at $1,340.

After a 7.6% advance the previous week, Silver added another 51 cents or 2.9% last week to finish at $18.29 (updated Silver charts Monday morning).  Copper fell again, losing 7 cents to close at $2.49.  Crude Oil dropped by more than $3 a barrel to finish at $45.59 while the U.S. Dollar Index soared more than 2 points, ending a wild week week at 94.99.

The “Big Picture” View Of Gold