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February 12, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,219 and $1,234 so far today…as of 9:20 am Pacific, bullion is up $5 an ounce at $1,223…Silver is 6 cents higher at $16.84…Copper has added 7 cents to $2.61…Crude Oil has climbed nearly $2 a barrel to $50.54 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen three-quarters of a point to 94.08…

The World Gold Council (WGC) issued its quarterly demands trend report today…on a positive note, demand ended the year on a strong note as it grew to 987.5 tonnes in Q4, an increase of 6% compared to the same quarter in 2013…however total demand for the year came in at 3,923.7 tonnes, down 4% on the year (its lowest level since 2009)…at the same time, total supply was little changed at 4,278.2 tonnes…

Although demand was down in India and China in 2014, the WGC said that demand in those two countries has grown 71% in the last 10 years…looking at last year, India and China accounted for 54% of consumer Gold demand, an increase from 33% in 2005…

More Central Bank Gymnastics

Sweden’s central bank today cut its main interest rate into negative territory for the first time and announced a bond-buying program, as it joined a widening group of central banks trying out unconventional measures to battle low inflation…

Meanwhile, the Bank of England today signaled it remains on course to raise interest rates in the U.K. next year, despite a sharp slowdown in inflation in Britain and renewed concern in the global economy over the risk that debt-laden Greece stumbles out of the neighboring euro zone…

However, in a sign that officials are mindful of the risks that threaten to undermine a recovery, Canadian and BOE Governor Mark Carney said he and his colleagues on the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee are willing to cut the BOE’s main interest rate further below its record-low level of 0.5% or embark on a fresh round of asset purchases if the prospects for growth and inflation in the U.K. deteriorate…

Emboldening Putin

Appeasing dangerous dictators (in this case, Vladimir Putin) is never a wise strategy, but that’s exactly what some key European nations have done today as the leaders of Germany and France have brokered a renewed deal to “end” Ukraine’s 10-month conflict with Russia-backed separatists, reviving and amending a failed September truce agreement in marathon talks that lasted through the night…

As Germany and France see it, the deal offers fresh hope for peace in Ukraine, but how they think Putin can even be remotely trusted is incredibly naive given his track record…the texts of the documents approved in the Belarusian capital of Minsk showed concessions on both sides, although Russia’s tough negotiating appeared to have won significant gains for the rebels…

One can almost be certain that Putin’s strategy is to claim at some point down the road that Ukraine has violated this agreement, thereby justifying whatever actions he decides to take – either through the rebels he has control over or influences, or by Russia officially…Putin is cunning and he’s playing Germany and France like puppets on a string, and this is merely another example why the world is a more dangerous place than ever (bullish ultimately for Gold)…the United States has turned very inward-looking under President Obama, who can’t even think in continental terms (the U.S., Canada and Mexico), while Western political leadership on the international  is abysmal…

U.S. Dollar Index Updated Chart

The U.S. Dollar Index is an excellent example of how a market can remain technically overbought on an extended basis…below is John’s updated 2.5-year weekly chart for the Dollar Index with a new Fib. measured resistance level of 102…

Keep in mind, Gold and the greenback have generally been moving in tandem in recent months (not the historical norm), so a significantly higher Dollar Index does not necessarily mean that bullion is about to collapse…in fact, the opposite could be true…both Gold and the Dollar Index are consolidating at the moment, and at some point in the near future (after testing support) both could off in unison to the upside…

The Dollar Index has exceptional support at its 50-day moving average (SMA) which continues to rise sharply and is currently at 92.52…

USD1(3)

Canadian Dollar Updated Chart

The loonie continues to churn in the 78-80 cent support band, though the possibility of a near-term rally out of that zone is very real given the current extent of oversold conditions…divergent monetary policies between the U.S. and Canada are obviously bearish for the loonie, giving ample reason for a collapse below 78 cents at some point this year – exact timing obviously is impossible to predict…this would coincide with an expected further drop in Oil prices (renewed weakness in both should be bullish for Canadian Gold producers and near-producers)…

CAD1(2)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite adding 16 points while Japan’s Nikkei average surged to a 2-month high as the yen fell to a near 6-week low against the dollar…

Europe

Investors in Europe cheered the “peace deal” between Ukraine and Russia and substantially drove up stock prices across the board today…meanwhile, the Financial Times reported this morning that euro zone finance ministers’ first attempt to grapple with the bailout demands made by the new Greek government broke down in recriminations after the 2 sides failed even to agree on a way to take negotiations forward after 6 hours of talks in Brussels…trying to carve out a deal on money with a group of communists is not likely to work…

North America

The Dow is up 70 points as of 9:20 am Pacific despite (or perhaps because of) some disappointing economic news that has also knocked down the U.S. dollar…

U.S. retail sales slumped in January for a second straight month, a worrisome signal of weak consumer spending over the holidays and entering 2015…sales at retailers and restaurants decreased 0.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted $439.77 billion, the Commerce Department said today…retail sales dropped 0.9% in December after rising 0.4% in November…gasoline prices have plunged since last summer…but even excluding purchases at gas stations, retail sales were flat in January after ticking down 0.2% in December…

First-time weekly jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 25,000, more than expected, to a seasonally adjusted 304,000 during the week to Saturday, the Labor Department reported this morning…

The TSX is off slightly as of 9:20 am Pacific while the Venture is up 2 points at 693…

Walker River Resources (WRR, TSX-V) Update

When fundamentals and technicals both come together in a stock at the same time, the result can be explosive – especially in the speculative space…

Walker River Resources (WRR, TSX-V) has some very compelling high-grade Gold targets at its Lapon Canyon Property on a proven trend in Nevada…we did our due diligence on this about a year ago, but timing is everything…now with drill permits in hand, and a source of financing to move forward, Walker should be able to generate some near-term excitement as the geological team appears to have an excellent early understanding of the steeply dipping cross-fault structures that cut across this property…Lapon is on the important Walker trend, and what WRR sees here is a system that is analagous to other cross-fault structures responsible for many Gold and base metal deposits in the world…these faults are heavily sheared and altered with abundant silica…they vary in width from 60 to 300 m…aiming some drill holes here should be a lot of fun…

It is one of those properties that has simply been under-explored…some small-scale mining took place at Lapon in the early 1900’s…underground sampling in the early 1900’s returned numerous assay values in the range of 1 ounce per ton, with a sample at the end of an adit returning 20.6 ounces per ton (Gruenwald, 1994, National Instrument 43-101 report dated Feb. 15, 2004, by Dr. J.H. Montgomery, P.Eng., and N. Barr, BSc) as reported by WRR March 27, 2014…

We’re even more comfortable with this property knowing that geologist Tom Shuster has visited it and also joined the company’s board of directors…Tom, who has done some excellent work as a trusted consultant for Jordan Capital in Vancouver, is a first-class guy and knows his stuff…he’s genuinely fired up about this property…

The claims are easily accessible by secondary state roads from the main highway, and a power transmission line passes within 3 km of the property…

By the way, in December, Walker River picked up a land package in the James Bay area of northwest Quebec where Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) has been enjoying some exploration (and market) success (drilling continues there)…Quebec could also deliver some joy for this company, but the treasure in our view is at Lapon Canyon and that’s where the company’s focus is going to be…

There are never any discovery guarantees in this business, but we believe Walker has an unusual chance of success on its initial round of drilling…

WRR Chart Update

There are so many aspects of this chart that fascinate us, including of course the recent breakout above the downtrend line on big volume…the CMF shows increasing accumulation, RSI(14) is accelerating and following an uptrend line, while the ADX indicator also confirms the primary bullish trend (not shown on this chart are the 100 and 200-day moving averages which are beginning to reverse to the upside, putting WRR at current levels in the “sweet spot”)…as always, perform your own due diligence…

WRR is unchanged at 4.5 cents as of 9:20 am Pacific…

WRR2

Pikoo Camp & Athabasca Nuclear Corp. (ASC, TSX-V) Update

We’re excited about the possibilities of the emerging Pikoo diamond camp in central-eastern Saskatchewan which, like the Sheslay district in northwest B.C., has huge exploration upside as a district-scale opportunity…

A reminder to our readers that North Arrow Minerals‘ (NAR, TSX-V) drill program is now under way at its Pikoo Project under a joint venture with Stornoway Diamond Corp. (SWY, TSX)…this was announced yesterday…approximately 3,000 m of drilling is planned to follow up on diamond-bearing kimberlite discoveries made in 2013 and to test new targets defined by the 2014 till sampling program..initial ground geophysical surveys of selected target areas are complete and the drill is on the property…the program is expected to run through to the end of March…

Diamonds were first discovered at NAR’s Pikoo Project in 2013 when kimberlite was identified in 9 of 10 drill holes, including the PK150 kimberlite discovery…

Athabasa Nuclear, in a healthy financial position, has assembled a quality land package in the Pikoo camp and is therefore extremely well positioned to benefit from a pick-up in interest in this area…another hit by NAR will give the Pikoo camp a major boost…

ASC has been hovering between 3 cents and a nickel since the start of the year, and its 50-day SMA (currently at 4 cents) has recently reversed to the upside…importantly, a confirmed breakout above the downtrend line appears to be in the works…

ASC1(1)

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in WRR.

February 11, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold, which was struggling to recapture the $1,240+ level, has fallen below its 50-day moving average (SMA) this morning but Gold stocks are holding up well nonetheless…bullion has traded between $1,220 and resistance at $1,240 so far today…as of 9:20 am Pacific, it’s down $10 an ounce at $1,224…Silver is off a nickel at $16.85…Copper is unchanged at $2.54…Crude Oil is back below $50 a barrel at $49.59 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-third of a point at 95.08…keep in mind that declining Oil prices and a rising greenback are bullish for Canadian Gold producers in particular…the loonie has fallen to 79 cents this morning, so Gold is actually flat today in Canadian dollars…

Gold producers with cash on hand are on the hunt for mining assets while they’re still cheap – not as cheap as they were a few months ago, mind you, but still very attractive by historical standards and perhaps a lot cheaper than they’ll be a year from now…those companies who minimized borrowing during Gold’s bull run (more than $30 billion in debt was racked up over the last decade or so) are in the best position now to scoop up mines and deposits from rivals with weaker balance sheets, according to executives at the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference in South Africa, the biggest such gathering on the continent…

Bloomberg reports that already, $2.7 billion in deals have been announced or completed this year within the industry, including Monday’s $1.1 billion offer for Rio Alto Mining Ltd. (RIO, TSX) by Tahoe Resources (THO, TSX)…it’s an early leg up on the $10.5 billion in deals last year…watch some high quality juniors with valuable assets get swallowed up with increasingly frequency this year as well…we’ve seen evidence of this as well – juniors with strong balance sheets are even targeting other juniors…

Shift In Thinking At The Fed?

Federal Reserve officials are debating a historic shift in 1 of its core economic gauges that could lead the central bank to move even slower than now thought once it lifts its rates from rock bottom levels…according to a report from Reuters this morning, interviews with half a dozen current and former Fed policymakers and staff reveal a growing belief that the  economy can produce far lower levels of unemployment without stoking inflation…this concept is being built into Fed models and becoming increasingly entrenched in the central bank’s views…

That shift may not delay the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase, still expected in mid-year…but it does offer Chair Janet Yellen a good reason to move at a snail’s pace from then on to bring as many people as possible back to work and attempt to drive inflation back up to the Fed’s 2% target…

Updated Gold Chart (USD)

Below is a 1-year daily chart that tracks 3 important moving averages (50, 100 and 200) as well as a few other technical indicators for Gold including RSI(14)…

What’s apparent is that buy pressure is in decline as the retreat in bullion continues after it recently hit the top of a downsloping flag (see chart posted last Saturday in our Week In Review)…the 100-day SMA has flattened out at $1,217…below that, there is of course strong support at the $1,200 level which ultimately could be tested in the near future…

What will be critical to watch in the coming days is if the RSI(14) can hold previous support at 45%…it recently vaulted into overbought territory when Gold pushed slightly above $1,300, so the retracement up to this point can certainly be considered normal…

GOLD20(1)

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

The TSX Gold Index surged by just over 50% between early November and the beginning of this month, so a minor pullback at the very least was not surprising…buy pressure remains steady in the producers, unlike in Gold itself which is experiencing a drop-off in buy pressure at the moment…technical support on any further pullback in the TSX Gold Index should be particularly robust in the mid-160’s where the rising 50-day SMA coincides with the Fib. 50% level (166)…

SPTGD2(2)

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) Update

For a multitude of reasons stated over the last number of months, Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) remains our favorite producer (Gold Bullion Development Corp., GBB, TSX-V, another company with roots in Rouyn-Noranda), is our favorite near-term producer)…

With a loonie on a downward spiral and not expected to bottom out until it reaches the low 70‘s, Canadian producers and near-producers are at a distinct advantage as the Gold price has clearly broken out above $1,450 CDN as shown in John’s chart yesterday…

Richmont has smartly taken advantage of the recent resurgence in Gold stocks by completing a $38.5 million financing at $4 per share on a bought deal basis…this was smart money buying into a bright future for RIC…the company is in a tremendous financial position as it advances its producing Island Gold Mine in northern Ontario to access impressive high-grade impressive high-grade material at deeper levels…

Richmont has been following an uptrend line on this long-term weekly chart since the early summer of last year, so there’s every reason to believe this bullish primary trend will continue…any pullbacks along the way have presented investors with excellent opportunities…

RIC is off a nickel at $3.95 as of 9:30 am Pacific…

RIC1(4)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite gained another 16 points overnight to close at 3158 while Japan’s Nikkei was down slightly, finishing at 17653…

Europe

European equities ended slightly lower today ahead of the meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels to discuss a solution to Greece’s soon-to-end bailout program…

North America

The Dow is down 34 points as of 9:30 am Pacific…

There are indications the Dow has considerably higher to go after the recent and healthy 1,000 point pullback…overall, it has been tremendously resilient and the 200-day SMA has provided rock-solid support…importantly, RSI(14) has brokem above its short-term downtrend line – this has to be construed as bullish…equities should continue to perform well…

DOW7(1)

The TSX is up 44 points as of 9:30 am Pacific, despite weakness in Gold and Oil, while the Venture is flat at 691…

The Noront Indicator

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Noront Resources (NOR, TSX-V) has been a reliable leading indicator for the Venture in recent years…in other words, when NOT is in an uptrend, this is usually a sign that all’s well with the Index…when NOT gets tied up in knots and starts a downtrend, that’s usually an early warning that the Venture is about to head south…

What does the “Noront Indicator” tell us now?…

Noront is in an obvious uptrend, perhaps the early stages of one given the recent reversal to the upside in the EMA(20) and the potential confirmed breakout above Fib. resistance at 40 cents…in addition, RSI(14) at 60% is showing strong up momentum after forming a bullish “W”…

This meshes well with the Venture’s continuing bullish indicators…

NOT1(1)

Note:  John, Terry and Jon do not hold positions in RIC or NOT.

February 10, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,231 (its rising 50-day moving average) and $1,247 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $2 an ounce at $1,237…Silver is up a nickel at $17.02…Copper is down 2 pennies at $2.54…Crude Oil is $1.76 a barrel lower at $51.10 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added one-tenth of a point to 94.67…

Gold broke below its 200-day moving average (SMA) and $1,240 support Friday, closing at a 3-week low, and has had trouble early this week getting back above that key $1,240 level…last week’s $50 drop has so far not attracted strong buying, so bullion may ultimately have to test $1,200 again before it starts to claw its way back…Gold is still up more than $100 an ounce from its early November low, and is also trading above $1,500 CDN (see updated Gold chart this morning in CDN dollar terms)…

More consolidation in the Gold sector…Tahoe Resources (THO, TSX) and Rio Alto Mining (RIO, TSX) intend to combine in a CDN $1.4 billion deal that will bring together 2 precious metals miners with operations in Central and South America…it will be the “meshing of our two businesses,” said Tahoe President and CEO Kevin McArthur in a conference call yesterday morning…upon completion of the transaction, existing Tahoe and Rio Alto shareholders will own approximately 65% and 35% of the combined company, respectively, which will keep the name Tahoe…

Greece Takes Firm Stance Against Gold Mine

Greece’s new far-left government will legally oppose a Canadian-run Gold mine in the northern part of the country, its energy minister confirmed, promising to “support” workers at the mine which Eldorado Resources (ELD, TSX) was planning to bring into production next year (the communists now running Greece have a strange notion of supporting workers – they certainly aren’t protecting their jobs.  “We are against the Gold investment in Skouries and we will use all possible legal means to back our position,” Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis declared in parliament today.  “In any case we will support all workers at the mines.”  Greece is destined for disaster as the new government, not surprisingly, has already branded itself as hostile to foreign investment, and more importantly has also shown in general terms that it simply doesn’t respect money…one has to wonder how long they can (or should) remain in the euro zone?…

Gold Update In CDN Dollars

Below is another look at Gold in Canadian dollar terms…bullion is experiencing a normal pullback after getting a little overheated in January…what’s encouraging here are the rising 50 and 200-day moving averages (SMA’s), with the 50-day crossing above the 200-day during the last half of January…

Gold has performed exceptionally well in CDN dollar terms since hitting a low of $1,282 in early November…the $1,450 area, where it broke out from early this year, should provide strong support during this current consolidation…

GOLD19

WTIC Chart Update

Oil is trying to re-establish support at the $50 level, but we still view the current rally as a dead-cat bounce…this 2+ year weekly chart shows how RSI(2) conditions were at extreme levels for most of the period from last July to January, so it’s not surprising a rally has occurred…

The 50-day SMA is currently at $52 and still trending lower…at the very least, it’s reasonable to expect another test of the mid-$40’s…

Oil stocks held by countries in the OECD may come close to the all-time high of 2.83 billion barrels in the middle of 2015, the International Energy Agency stated today in its monthly report (the IEA advises the West on energy policy).  “Despite expectations of tightening balances by end-2015, downward market pressures may not have run their course just yet,” they concluded. 

WTIC1(1)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite roared ahead overnight, gaining 46 points to close at 3141…China’s CPI rose 0.8% in January from a year ago period, below a Reuters consensus for a 1% gain…wholesale prices, meanwhile, continued their declines…the PPI fell an annual 4.3%, worse than the 3.8% expected decline…

Europe

European markets were mostly higher today…investors are waiting to see if a deal between Greece and the euro zone will be struck when the euro group of finance ministers meets in Brussels tomorrow…Greece’s Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is expected to detail new reform proposals at the meeting…

North America

The Dow is up 61 points as of 8:30 am Pacific…the TSX is down 59 points while the Venture has shed 5 points to 691…

Cannabix Technologies Inc. (BLO, CSE) Update

Cannabix Technologies (BLO, CSE, BLOZF, OTC) has been our favorite non-resource stock in the speculative sector since last summer, and its huge run so far this month should come as no surprise as BLO edges closer to unveiling its marijuana breathalyzer prototype as reported February 2…

This is a company that from Day 1 has shown the ability to execute on all fronts which puts it into an elite category as far as CSE or Venture-listed companies are concerned…

From a technical standpoint, overbought conditions are clearly evident at the moment as you can see on this morning’s 4-month daily chart, so at some point near-term there will be a corrective pullback as profit-taking sets in…from exactly what price, it’s hard to say…the stock has advanced for 7 straight sessions (entering today) because demand at current prices is outstripping supply – as simple as that…this is a powerful story, the company has the cash it needs for now, and management knows what it’s doing…they’re very capable and focused, following the game plan they had from the beginning…this all translates into success in the market and in overall business development…

BLO is up another 7.5 cents at 46.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific (the chart below is in U.S. dollars from the OTC listing as Stockcharts does not yet provide charts for CSE listed companies)…

BLO1(2)

Walker River Resources (WRR, TSX-V)

Walker River Resources (WRR, TSX-V), currently trading under a nickel, has caught our attention with a highly favorable chart and a significant uptick in volume recently…the company’s main project is in Nevada where it has received drill permits from the BLM for its Lapon Canyon Gold Property…the initial planned program, which could be just around the corner given the recently announced financing, will target potential high-grade mineralization…

What we like about the Lapon Canyon Property, and we performed some due diligence on this a year ago, is that it features a series of steeply dipping cross-fault structures cutting across the important Walker trend, analagous to other cross-fault structures responsible for many Gold and base metal deposits in the world…these faults are heavily sheared and altered with abundant silica…they vary in width from 60 to 300 m…plenty of opportunity here for some early drill success…high-grade, small-scale mining took place at Lapon Canyon beginning in the early 1900’s…the claims are easily accessible by secondary state roads from the main highway, and a power transmission line passes within 3 km of the property…

In December, Walker River picked up a land package in the James Bay area of northwest Quebec where Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) has been enjoying some exploration success…but WRR’s immediate focus is Lapon Canyon and the opportunity to drill into some high-grade Gold…

WRR 2-Year Weekly Chart

What jumps out about this 2-year weekly chart is that WRR has broken above a long-term downtrend line, while RSI(14) continues to climb a trendline…John has seen this pattern in many other situations and it’s a classic signal…a lot of speculative energy could come into this…as always, perform your own due diligence…

WRR is unchanged at 3 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…

WRR1

Gold Bullion Development Corp. (GBB, TSX-V) Update

A notable change in a technical indicator on this 6-month Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) chart…sell pressure, dominant since the beginning of the year, has transitioned into buy pressure…this is because almost all of the supply from last fall’s flow-through financing has been absorbed by the market in recent weeks…this sets the stage for a near-term resumption of the uptrend with GBB supported by its rising 50-day SMA…note also how GBB broke above a downtrend line in early January…

GBB5

Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V) Update

We’ll have more on Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) as the week progresses, as last week’s results from H-23 are clearly a game-changer for the company in our view, but in the meantime we have an updated chart to give our readers some insight into fresh technical developments…

DBV is showing increasing signs of a confirmed breakout thru Fib. resistance at 16 cents (the next Fib. level is 23 cents), and the “W” pattern and strong up momentum in RSI(14) back that up…in addition, the 50-day SMA (not shown on this chart) is just now beginning to reverse to the upside…

The fundamentals with this play are looking better than ever after DBV reported its best drill hole numbers yet from the Hat Project last week…more assays are pending, specifically from a pyrite-chalcopyrite zone in H-23 that continues for at least 120 m…it’s the thickest zone encountered in this hole…

DBV1(2)

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in BLO, GBB and DBV.  Jon also holds a share position in WRR.

February 9, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,235 and $1,245 so far today to begin the new week…as of 8:15 am Pacific, bullion is up $8 an ounce at $1,241 following a $50 slide last week…Silver is 39 cents higher at $17.07…Copper is up 2 pennies at $2.57…Crude Oil, after its biggest weekly jump in 3 years, is up another $1.50 a barrel to $53.19…OPEC has increased its demand growth forecast for 2015 by 110,000 barrels a day while also reducing its non-OPEC supply growth estimate by 420,000 barrels a day…the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-quarter of a point to 94.42…

Today’s action in Gold is important to see if there’s confirmation of Friday’s breakdown below $1,240 support…a close below $1,240 today would increase the likelihood of a test of the $1,200 area…RSI(14) has broken below an uptrend in place since November on the 6-month daily chart that we posted Saturday…we have another chart this morning that provides additional perspective…

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, predicts that Greece will be forced to exit the euro, as its new prime minister outlined plans last night to keep the debt-stricken country financially afloat…in a bleak assessment of Europe’s future, Greenspan, one of the most influential policymakers of modern times, said it was “just a matter of time” before Greece dropped out, triggering the eventual collapse of the single currency…he made his comments just hours before Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras told parliament he would ask fellow euro zone members in Brussels later this week for an emergency short-term bridging loan, to allow Athens more time to negotiate a new debt deal…the communists are now running Greece – Greenspan will be proven correct…

China’s Big Appetite For Gold In January

Mineweb’s Lawrence Williams (www.mineweb.com), one of the best in the business at analyzing demand/supply trends, noted this morning that China’s SGE Gold withdrawals in the month of January amounted to a staggering 255 tonnes, with last week’s total coming in at 54 tonnes:

“What we do know from the latest SGE figures, which showed that withdrawals from the exchange came to almost 54 tonnes last week, is that supplies to the Chinese market from the exchange in January amounted to a new record for the month – around 4% above last year’s previous January record.  With the Chinese New Year, which is the principal stimulus for the high Gold demand, still two weeks away, SGE withdrawals for the first half of this month are also likely to remain very high, but may fall away thereafter as we saw last year,” Williams wrote. 

“What we have to assume from the above is that Chinese Gold consumption is far, far higher than the estimates supplied by mainstream analysts on which much of the institutionally Gold dominated futures market would appear to depend.  Whether there is a hidden agenda here is the subject of much discussion within the pro-Gold sector, but we suspect that it largely the result of perhaps reliance on independently gathered data and a reluctance to take official statistics at face value.”

Russia-Ukraine Crisis

We’ll see if Gold reacts this week to the continuing escalating crisis in Ukraine, as the Putin regime digs its claws deeper into that country…how will Merkel and Obama respond?…the West could desperately use a Ronald Reagan or a Margaret Thatcher right now…the U.S. and Germany are struggling to maintain a united front against an unflinching Russia ahead of a crucial week of high-stakes, top-level diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis…

Chancellor Angela Merkel has given President Vladimir Putin until Wednesday to agree to a road map to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine (as if he’d adhere to any “agreement”), according to Western officials in news reports this morning…if in her assessment Russian intransigence has blocked a deal, Germany will apparently move to step up European sanctions against Russian companies, possibly including broader asset freezes…separately, the U.S. is considering supplying Ukraine with lethal aid to defend itself (force is all that a thug like Putin understands)…President Obama has held off on a decision until he meets with the German leader this morning at the White House…Chancelor Merkel has publicly opposed weapons deliveries to Ukraine, drawing the ire of U.S. Senator John McCain who has a much more realistic view of the Russian threat…

Gold’s Downsloping Flag 

Below is a 2.5-year weekly chart for Gold that shows a very distinct pattern since early 2013 – consolidation within a downsloping flag…it was in November last year, with Gold trading in the $1,150’s, when John pointed out that bullion would likely find support around $1,130 and then react back up toward the top of the downsloping flag…indeed, that is what has occurred…to gain some powerful momentum, Gold really needs to break above this flag formation and overcome RSI(14) resistance at 60% on this particular chart…

Note how Gold’s drop has found support at the rising 50-day SMA, currently at $1,231 – if this doesn’t hold, then $1,200 will have to…

GOLD18

CRB Index 10-Year Monthly Chart

The bleeding has stopped for now on the CRB Index with Oil pushing back above $50 a barrel…the Index tumbled more than 30% since the end of last June to the recent low, which roughly matches the extent of the Venture’s drop during that same time period…

It’s safe to assume that for now the CRB Index may continue to rally out of extreme oversold conditions, but a test of the 200 level (the 2009 low) certainly can’t be ruled out later this quarter or in Q2…

CRB12(1)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite edged higher overnight, climbing 19 points to close at 3095, despite disappointing trade data announced yesterday…exports fell 3.3% from a year ago, while imports tumbled 19.9%, missing analysts’ expectations…

Europe

European markets are down significantly in late trading overseas due to concerns over Greece and Russia…

North America

The Dow is off 63 points as of 8:15 am Pacific…the TSX is up 68 points while the Venture has added 5 points at 698…

Venture 10-Year Monthly Chart

The Venture confirmed a technical breakout last week above 680 resistance, and now the next near-term resistance to overcome is 707…

Below is a longer-term monthly chart that gives hope that the Venture’s 637 low in mid-December won’t be revisited anytime soon…chart support at 680 has been re-established, and note that the -DI indicator hit a peak only previously seen at the 2008 low, and again at the 2013 low that was followed by a recovery into the summer of last year…

A healing process has started…Oil’s direction will be key in determining what kind of momentum the Venture may be able to build in the coming weeks…

CDNX32

TSX 6-Year Monthly Chart

The TSX does have momentum with all indicators showing it’s on track to reach Fib. resistance around 15800 which would be a new all-time high…

TSX2(1)

NioCorp Developments Inc. (NB, TSX-V) Update

Spotting crucial technical “turning points” on a chart can make the difference between making just a little bit of money and a lot of money…and when both the technicals and the fundamentals line up, as they have with Cannabix Technologies Inc. (BLO, CSE), the results can be quite remarkable…

Below is another chart that has us excited…NioCorp Developments (NB, TSX-V), which continues to make progress with its high-grade, large tonnage Niobium Project in Elk Creek, Nebraska, has broken out above key resistance as we showed last week…in the fourth quarter of last year, NB unwound an overbought condition that emerged in May…since then, the stock consolidated in a horizontal channel between the low 50’s and the high 70’s until last week’s confirmed breakout…

NioCorp released the final results of its 3-phase 2014 drilling January 19…the infill drilling that was carried out should allow the company to elevate the resource to the measured and indicated category (Niobium has physical and chemical properties similar to those of Tantalum, it’s a rare and a soft transition metal primarily used in the production of high-grade steel such as that used in gas pipelines)…

NB is up a penny at 85 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific…as always, perform your own due diligence…

NB2(2)

Silver Short-Term Chart

Like Gold, Silver experienced an unconfirmed breakdown Friday when it closed below $17…it’s trying to claw its way back today…

Silver in December finally staged a definitive breakout above a downtrend line that was in place since the summer on this 9-month daily chart (note how the downtrend line became new support in early December)…

The December 1 dramatic move from an intra-day low of $14.15 to a close above $16 was technically highly significant…as expected, superb support was demonstrated around $15…

The metal climbed as high as $18.50 in January, just a few pennies of the the Fib. 50% resistance level…while doing so, RSI(14) edged into overbought territory but has since unwound to 44% with RSI(14) approaching support…

If Silver can quickly reassert itself above $17, then Friday’s tumble may have simply been a head fake…

SILVER16

Silver Long-Term Chart

This 34-year monthly chart continues to give hope that Silver could be in the very early stages of a powerful “Wave 5” move to the upside, though we caution that this could take some time to play out (if indeed this theory is correct)…the reasons for such a move are also not clear…over the past couple of months, Silver jumped by as much as 30% – it led Gold to the upside…

RSI(14) has bounced off previous long-term support which will need to hold along with key price support in the immediate vicinity of $15…

One note of concern on this chart is the sell pressure that has prevailed since the beginning of 2013, after a decade-long period of buy pressure…based on historical patterns, sell pressure could persist for a considerable time yet – though that doesn’t necessarily mean that the price can’t still trend higher…nonetheless, it would be encouraging to see this sell pressure begin to abate…

SILVER17

Note:  Both John and Jon hold share positions in BLO.

February 7, 2015

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead

TSX Venture Exchange and Gold

The Venture shrugged off a bad week for Gold and overcame 680 resistance, a fact that demonstrates how the Oil and gas sector has a greater influence than ever before on the Index.  WTIC rallied more than 7% last week, posting its biggest weekly gain since February 2011.

The Venture added 16 points or 2.4% to close at 693 which compares to a 2.8% push by the TSX and a 3.8% advance by the Dow.  Equities overall were strong last week, one reason why Gold backed off $50 an ounce or 3.9%.

This 2-month daily Venture chart shows the gradual climb beginning in mid-December out of extreme oversold conditions, with RSI(14) now above 50%.  After a confirmed breakout through 680, which should now act as new support, next resistance for the Venture rests at 707 (the January high and Fib. resistance).

CDNX31

Venture 6-Month Daily Chart

For the first time since September, the Venture is now trading above its 50-day moving average (SMA).  What would be particularly significant is if this SMA were to reverse to the upside.  It’s possible such an event could occur later this month.  Meanwhile, something to keep an eye on immediately is the Bollinger Band Width which has been at low levels the last few weeks.  If it starts to gain traction to the upside, this would mean a period of increased Venture volatility (either up or down).

The breakdown during the last half of January above the downtrend line in place since September was an important development, but the Index since then has been moving higher only in a very gradual, hesitating manner.  It’ll be interesting to see if the pace of that advance starts to pick up.  Historically, February is the Venture’s 4th best month of the year and usually ends on a strong note.

CDNX33

The Seeds Have Been Planted (And Continue To Be Planted) For The Next Big Run In Gold Stocks

There’s no better cure for low prices than low prices. The great benefit of the collapse in Gold prices in 2013 is that it forced producers (at least most of them) to start to become much more lean in terms of their cost structures. Producers, big and small, have started to make hard decisions in terms of costs, projects, and rationalizing their their overall operations. Exploration budgets among both producers and juniors have also been cut sharply. In addition, government policies across much of the globe are making it more difficult (sometimes impossible) for mining companies to carry out exploration or put Gold (or other) deposits into production, thanks to the ignorance of many politicians and the impact of radical and vocal environmentalists (technology has made it easier for groups opposing mining projects to organize and disseminate information, even in remote areas around the globe). Ultimately, all of these factors are going to eventually create a supply problem and therefore great opportunities in Gold and quality Gold stocks.  Think about it, where are the next major Gold deposits going to come from?  On top of that, grades have fallen significantly just over the past decade.

Gold

After a powerful finish to the previous week, Gold disappointed to the downside as it tumbled $50 an ounce to close at $1,233.  Typically, bullion has been moving in tandem with the Dollar Index since November but that trend wasn’t evident Friday as Gold fell sharply while the Dollar Index surged by more than a full point on a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, increasing the market’s expectations of a Fed interest rate hike by as early as June (we believe the Fed will be forced to hold off until 2016).

The fresh 6-month daily chart for Gold gives us some concerns.  Monday’s trading will be important as bullion on Friday closed below what should have been an exceptionally strong support band between $1,240 and $1,260.  This is an “unconfirmed” breakdown that requires confirmation Monday.  In addition, RSI(14) has broken below an uptrend line (and the 50% support level) and that’s almost always a red flag, while a bearish -DI/+DI crossover has also occurred.  At the very least, these indicators suggest an increasing likelihood of a near-term test of the $1,200 area – particularly if there isn’t a sharp recovery on Monday that would make Friday’s move a fake out.  We’ll examine a couple of other Gold charts in Monday’s Morning Musings for a broader perspective on this market.

GOLD17

Silver closed below support at $17 an ounce Friday, losing 54 cents for the week to finish at $16.68 (updated Silver charts Monday).   Copper added 5 cents to close at $2.55.  Crude Oil rallied strongly for the second straight week, gaining $3.45 a barrel to finish at $51.69.  The U.S. Dollar Index, despite Friday’s surge, was down one-fifth of a point for the week, closing at 94.65. 

The “Big Picture” View Of Gold

As Frank Holmes so effectively illustrates at www.usfunds.com, the long-term bull market in Gold has been driven by both the Fear Trade and the Love Trade.  The transfer of wealth from west to east, and the accumulation of wealth particularly in China and India, has had a huge impact on bullion and will continue to support prices.   Despite Gold’s largest annual drop in three decades in 2013, the fundamental long-term case for the metal remains solidly intact based on the following factors:

  • Growing geopolitical tensions, fueled in part by the ISIS and al Qaeda, and a highly dangerous and expansionist Russia under Vladimir Putin, have put world security in the most precarious state since World War II;
  • Weak leadership in the United States and Europe is emboldening enemies of the West;
  • Currency instability and an overall lack of confidence in fiat currencies;
  • Historically low interest rates;
  • Continued strong accumulation of Gold by China which intends to back up its currency with bullion;
  • Massive government debt from the United States to Europe – a “day of reckoning” will come;
  • Continued net buying of Gold by central banks around the world;
  • Mine closings, a sharp reduction in exploration and a lack of major new discoveries – this these factors should contribute to a noticeable tightening of supply over the next couple of years.

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Independent Research and Analysis of Gold & Commodities, the TSX Venture Exchange and Emerging Junior Resource Companies: Speculative Opportunities in Today’s Markets

Welcome to our site, or at least the initial version of it!  BMR has been online for more than five years and strictly through word-of-mouth we have built a loyal following.  We encourage reader feedback and the exchange of helpful opinions and ideas among investors in our forum.

We’re continuing with our plans to ultimately construct a very unique investment and money-management resource site that goes considerably beyond what we have now.  We focus a great deal on the Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil markets as well as trends in the global economy, in addition of course to the technical health of the TSX Venture Exchange (CDNX).  An important component of this site, as well, will always be original research on high quality junior exploration companies or small producers that offer very real and significant upside potential. We are extremely selective in the companies we feature and put forward to investors – we prefer quality over quantity, and we are being more selective than ever in the current market environment.  We look for companies with the ability to execute both on the ground and in the market, who are determined to build shareholder value, which actually excludes most Venture stocks.  However, investors must understand that the companies we do put forward for our readers’ due diligence are still highly speculative situations and entail considerable risk, volatility and unpredictability.

Our intent is to provide you with information that you can use as part of your own due diligence.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. Always perform your own due diligence and please read our disclaimer at the bottom.

We use a combination of fundamental and technical factors in determining the value and potential of a stock.  In terms of fundamentals we look for a company with a superb project supported by strong management.  Management must possess integrity, solid ethics and a determination to succeed and build shareholder value.

At BullMarketRun (BMR) we approach the handling of money from a biblical perspective and this is an important topic we will be sharing with our readers (and listeners) as the site continues to develop. The Bible teaches so much about money and how to handle it and invest it –  there are literally thousands of verses on how we should handle the money and possessions that God entrusts us with.  By examining the life of Jesus and reading the Word of God, we can all become fully equipped to be successful investors and handle money wisely.  We have a God who thinks big – He created the universe – and He wants us to think big  in every area of our lives.  When we handle money from a Biblical perspective (His money that we have been given stewardship of), He will bless you.  This all begins, of course, with a personal relationship with Jesus Christ by accepting Him as your Lord and Savior and putting Him at the throne of your life.  It is the most important decision you’ll ever make.

God Bless,

Terry Dyer

Owner/Publisher, www.BullMarketRun.com

Disclaimer:

BullMarketRun.com (BMR) is completely independent from any companies it covers.  BMR accepts no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations for coverage of any company mentioned on this site.  We accept no advertising either.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. No investment opinion or other advice is being rendered on any stock or company. We strongly recommend that you consult with a qualified investment adviser, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research before making any investment decisions. The stocks we cover, by definition, are highly speculative and potentially very volatile. Investors are cautioned that they may lose all or a portion of their investment if they make a purchase or short sale in these speculative stocks.  We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. It should be assumed that BMR personnel, writers and their associates may hold or dispose of or trade in positions in any securities mentioned herein at any time.  Owner/Publisher of BullMarketRun.com is Terry Dyer of Langley, British Columbia.

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All statements in BMR’s reports, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “targeting”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements.

February 6, 2015

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,227 and $1,269 so far today…as of 8:30 am, bullion is down $32 an ounce at $1,232 after a modestly better than expected U.S. jobs report this morning…Silver has retreated 64 cents at $16.58…Copper is down 4 cents at $2.56…Crude Oil has added $1.08 a barrel to $51.58 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up nearly a full point to 94.54…

Gold has been moving mostly in tandem with the greenback since November, though that trend is not evident today…it may reassert itself in the days ahead…after a very strong January, a retrace to the $1,240 area (the bottom end of a support band) is not surprising but it will be important for bullion to hold that level, otherwise a test of $1,200 support becomes increasingly likely…

China’s Gold output climbed 5.5% last year to nearly 452 tonnes, making the country the world’s biggest producer for the 8th straight year, the China Gold Association reported today…total consumption reached around 886 tonnes over the year, down 24.7% on a year earlier, the association said in a separate notice.  “Although 2014 Gold consumption fell by a large margin, the (longer-term) trend of increasing demand has not changed,” the association noted, saying that last year’s fall came after a very rapid increase in Gold purchases in the second half of 2013 as a result of declining prices…

U.S. Jobs Report

U.S. employers hired steadily last month and workers’ wages picked up, suggesting the labor market is moving closer to full health more than 5 years after the recession…non-farm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 257,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department reported this morning….and job creation was far stronger in prior months than previously estimated, with the government raising its estimates of new jobs in November and December by a combined 147,000…November’s reading of 423,000 jobs added marked the strongest month of private-sector hiring since 1997…strangely, it doesn’t feel like jobs growth and the economy are that robust…

The unemployment rate, calculated from a separate survey of households, climbed to 5.7% in January, up from December’s 5.6%…the rate rose because the labor force grew as more Americans searched for jobs, a positive sign…

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser told CNBC this morning that he’d argue for raising interest rates sooner rather than later, especially after the release of this morning’s jobs report…the hawkish Plosser called the numbers “very good,” adding they’re another sign of a “fairly normal economy”…he said people need to stop thinking about the economy in “perpetual crisis”…perhaps the same applies for Canada…the Great White North added an impressive 35,400 jobs in January, far surpassing the slight gain that economists had been expecting…Stats Canada said this morning that most of the jobs were part time…but the strong figure was enough to tick the jobless rate down by one-tenth of a percentage point to 6.6%…

Household Debt Burden A Growing Problem In Canada

As Canada’s economy tries to find its footing after an unexpected slip, the country’s growing household debt burden is raising new concerns as it outpaces that of most developed countries…in fact, Canada had the second-biggest jump in household debt-to-income ratios of any country other than Greece between 2007 and the second quarter of 2014, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute…

Canada and Australia along with a number of countries in northern Europe “now have larger household debt burdens than existed in the U.S. or the U.K. at the peak of the credit bubble,” according to the analysis…

The McKinsey Global Institute looked at 47 countries and identified seven with “potential vulnerabilities” in household debt that could lead to financial instability and a consumer spending slowdown: the Netherlands, South Korea, Sweden, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Canada…

Canadian Dollar Chart Update

Ultimately what will likely give the Canadian economy a boost, especially the manufacturing sector, is an even weaker loonie…and Canada is certainly not the only country in the world right now attempting to drive down its currency…

As you can see in this long-term monthly chart, RSI(14) recently hit its most oversold level in 20 years…back in 1998, when extreme RSI(14) conditions also materialized, the Dollar went into a recovery for 2 years before sliding again to a new low by late 2001/early 2002 (this, however, was not confirmed by the RSI(14), giving a classic buy signal on the new low)…

So we probably haven’t seen the low yet for the loonie in this cycle, though it’s possible the 78-80 cent support band may hold for now with the loonie then staging a rally (similar to the pattern in Oil)…

CAD6(2)

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite lost 2% overnight on worries over a raft of new IPO’s due next week…sentiment also fell after after state media firm Xinhua reported yesterday that the central bank’s recent RRR cut won’t mark the start of an aggressive easing stance, quoting a central bank official…

Europe

European markets were down slightly today after Greece’s talks with Germany over the future of its bailout program reportedly met with mixed success…

North America

The Dow is up 39 points as of 8:30 am Pacific…the TSX has added 23 points while the Venture has lost 2 points to 692…

TSX Chart Update

A “W” formation in the RSI(14) is typically a very accurate bullish signal, and that’s partly why we saw the distinct possibility of a breakout to higher levels in the Index this month…next measured Fib. resistance for the TSX is 15800, so a challenge of last year’s high appears to be in the works…

TSX2(1)

Cannabix Technologies Inc. (BLO, CSE, BLOZF, OTC) Update

What a steal this was late last year when the nervous nellies were foolishly dumping at a nickel…patience often does get rewarded in the market…

The uptrend in Cannabix Technologies (BLO, CSE), which took hold in November, started to accelerate last week after the company announced that its marijuana breathalyzer prototype is expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks…development has been proceeding as planned with the mechanical design, circuit board layouts, firmware and printed circuit board designs all nearing completion…

Cannabix is the front-runner in developing a much-needed marijuana breathalyzer for law enforcement and the workplace…

Technically, it appears a breakout will be confirmed today above resistance at 25 cents CDN (20 cents U.S.)…if that occurs, that level is expected to become strong new support on any potential pullback (BLO has advanced for 5 consecutive sessions entering today)…

BLO is up 3.5 cents at 28.5 cents on the CSE through the first 2 hours of trading today…below is an updated chart based on yesterday’s close on the OTC (U.S. dollars) as Stockcharts does not yet provide charts for CSE listings…

BLO11(1)

North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) Update

Gold’s weakness today certainly demonstrates the importance of having a diversified portfolio of speculative opportunities, which is why we’re highlighting Cannabix and North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) again this morning…on Monday, we’ll get back to Fairmont Resources (FMR, TSX-V) which is building an impressive aggregate business in Quebec…

With President and CEO Ken Armstrong, and Chairman Gren Thomas, among others, NAR features a highly respected management group and board responsible for the discovery of many kimberlites in Canada and Africa, including of course the Diavik mine in the Northwest Territories…

Significantly, North Arrow this month has broken above a downtrend line going back to last summer…in addition, the 50-day moving average (SMA) has now reversed to the upside, accumulation has replaced sell pressure as shown by the CMF, and RSI(14) is climbing an uptrend with plenty of room to still push higher at 63%…

On January 21, North Arrow reported that results from a 1,500-tonne bulk sample from its important Q1–4 kimberlite at the Qilalugaq Project in Nunavut are expected in April (the 12.5 hectare Q1–4 kimberlite is the largest diamondiferous kimberlite pipe in the eastern Canadian Arctic and 1 of 8 kimberlite pipes identified within the Qilalugaq Diamond Project…Q1–4 includes inferred resources as well as extremely rare yellow diamonds found in a sampling program)…

North Arrow is also gearing up for a drill program at its Pikoo Project in Saskatchewan which has delivered very promising early results…

NAR closed at 60 cents yesterday and it’s off 4 cents at 56 cents on light volume in early trading today…55 cents is new support as it was resistance (the top of a horizontal channel) from late October to late January…

NAR3(3)

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in BLO.  Jon also holds a share position in FMR.

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