TSX Venture Exchange and Gold

For the first time in several months the Venture finally has some momentum behind it, giving Canadian junior resource investors one extra reason to be grateful this Thanksgiving weekend after a long-awaited confirmed breakout above short-term moving averages that were restraining the Index since the beginning of May.

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Venture 4-Month Daily “Awareness Chart”

Finally, a Venture breakout above the EMA(8) and EMA(20) moving averages which have also both reversed to the upside.  RSI(14) has broken above the 50% level while a bullish +DI cross has also occurred.

Next important resistance is 560.  The Venture could stall around that area and consolidate for a brief period, or blast right through it and head toward the next Fib. resistance which is just under 590.  Bottom line is that this is a changed market from the summer.  The finish to the end of the year should be much different than what we saw over the final months of 2014.  It’s time to make some money, though selectivity remains key.  An important new discovery, preferably in Canada somewhere, would pour gasoline on the fire that’s now beginning to burn.  Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V) and Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) are in unique positions to positively influence sentiment across the entire junior resource market.  If even one of them delivers, watch out.

Commodity Sector Improvement

If the broad commodity sector hasn’t finally hit bottom, it’s certainly in the throes of a rally that could have some “legs” to it, especially considering the U.S. Dollar Index is finally rolling over with greenback bulls losing hope that the Fed is going to hike interest rates anytime soon.  Indeed, the Fed appears to have missed its window of opportunity which was really last year.  Weakening global growth in recent months, the latest poor U.S. jobs report, deflationary concerns and even the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown before year-end thanks to a looming budget battle simply aren’t ideal conditions for a Fed rate hike.  They will err on the side of caution until at least the spring of next year, in our view.

Dollar Index 9-Month Chart

Technically, as we’ve been stating for several months since the March high of 100.71 and the spring double top in the Dollar Index, the greenback is in trouble.  Two uptrend support lines have been broken, resistance between 96 and 97 has been relentless since August, and RSI(14) is moving lower and will likely test support at 30% on this 9-month daily chart.

The Dollar bulls, who were stampeding on a false promise by the Fed to hike rates, have had the floor taken out from underneath them, and to add insult the injury the U.S. is losing prestige on the international stage.  It’s growing increasingly likely that the Dollar Index will test base support around 88 over the next several months, and such an event will give both commodities and the Venture a boost.

Global Hotspots

A major terrorist attack in Turkey this weekend is yet another example of increasing global chaos.  Russian imperialism has returned in earnest with Vladimir Putin flexing his muscles in a major way on the international stage because he knows he’s up against the weakest American President since Jimmy Carter (Justin Trudeau would make North America a complete pushover).  Putin has outsmarted Barack Obama every step of the way, from the Ukraine to the Middle East where Obama’s missteps and withdrawal created a vacuum of power which the dangerous Putin, in addition to terrorist groups, have been more than eager to fill.  Obama’s Syria strategy failed miserably and he completely misread and underestimated ISIS, greatly endangering American security which is his #1 mandate to protect under the Constitution.  All of this has significant implications for both Crude Oil and Gold in our view, and will dominate U.S. political debate leading up to the 2016 elections.

Gold

Gold enjoyed its second straight powerful Friday, jumping $17 an ounce to close at $1,156.  It has momentum in its favor with a reversal to the upside in the 50-day SMA along with other bullish technical signals.  Support around $1,100 was repeatedly tested since mid-August and held.  Resistance is strong at $1,160 (bullion has traded in a horizontal channel between $1,100 and $1,160 for 2 months) but we expect this area to be conquered relatively soon given the overall posture of John’s 6-month daily chart.

For the week, Gold was up $18.

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Gold has touched a 6-week high today, thanks to yesterday’s dovish Fed minutes…the yellow metal has traded between $1,144 and $1,161 so far today (near-term resistance at $1,160)…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $20 an ounce at $1,159…Silver has jumped 20 cents to $15.86…Copper has surged 7 cents to $2.40…Crude Oil, set for its biggest weekly rise since 2009, has added another 39 cents a barrel to $49.82 while the U.S. Dollar Index is under pressure again, down nearly half a point at 94.86…technical conditions continue to deteriorate in the greenback, and that’s good news for the Venture and commodities…

Yesterday’s Fed minutes from the September 16-17 meeting showed that officials were concerned that negative international developments might have increased the risks to the U.S. growth and inflation outlook, as the committee agreed last month to wait for further economic evidence before raising interest rates…last Friday’s much weaker than expected U.S. jobs report, and other data this week, have no doubt confirmed those concerns…the Fed is not likely going to be able to raise interest rates until the spring of next year at the earliest…

UBS looks for Gold prices to rebound into next year as real interest rates remain subdued compared to past cycles, maintaining its call for the metal to average $1,250 an ounce in 2016.  “We think that Gold has already done a lot to adjust to the current macro environment…we anticipate any downside from here to be ultimately contained,” UBS stated in a fresh outlook released this morning…

Zinc Enjoys Biggest Single-Day Advance In More Than 4 Years

Cuts to the supply of Zinc by Glencore are leading base metals higher today, including Copper which has recently seen a number of positive announcements on supply curtailments…Swiss-based Glencore said today that it will make production cuts to Zinc mining equivalent to 4% of the global market…that has sent Zinc prices to a 1-month high and has taken other base metals with it…

Glencore’s cuts in Australia, South America and Kazakhstan will remove 500,000 tons a year from mined supply, potentially tipping the market into a deficit and giving a boost to prices of the multi-purpose metal…Glencore’s announcement comes almost immediately on the heels of a prediction by Goldman Sachs that refined Zinc supply will outpace demand by 50,000 metric tons this year and 51,000 tons in 2016…Goldman will have go back to the drawing board again…too bad…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Confirmed Venture and Crude Oil breakouts – updated charts…

2.  Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) announces mobilization for drilling – our map shows general target area…

3.  Shift in Sheslay district dynamics – Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) in new position of strength…

4.  Updated charts for Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V), Pure Energy Minerals (PE, TSX-V) and Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V)…

5.  Bottom-fishing opportunity in diamond play…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between 1,136 and $1,147 so far today…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $1 an ounce at $1,145…Silver has retreated 36 cents to $15.69…Copper is off slightly at $2.33…Crude Oil is up more than $1 a barrel to $48.82 while the U.S. Dollar Index has declined one-quarter of a point to 95.30…

Capital Economics, a U.K.-based research firm, is quite bullish on Gold’s prospects going into year-end and throughout 2016.  “Gold should benefit further from a recovery in other commodity prices – notably Copper and Oil, consistent with a revival in demand from emerging markets and a pick-up in inflation expectations,” according to Julian Jessop, head of commodities research for Capital Economics, in a report issued today.  “A major headwind for the yellow metal has been concerns about a sharp slowdown in China, which would undermine Gold demand.  However, we expect the news from China to improve in the coming months, lifting the prices of both Copper and Gold.  Another factor weighing on Gold has been the lack of demand for inflation hedges.  Correspondingly, if we are also right that Oil prices are set for a gradual recovery, Gold should benefit too.  Overall, we remain very comfortable with our relatively upbeat view on the medium-term prospects for the Gold price, reflected in our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts of $1,200 and $1,400.” 

Oil and Gold should both benefit from Vladimir Putin’s new global adventures, this time in the Middle East…Russian warships in the Caspian Sea fired cruise missiles yesterday as Syrian government troops launched a ground offensive in central Syria in the first major combined air-and-ground assault since Moscow began its military campaign in the country last week…NATO’s secretary general said yesterday that Russian ground troops are among Moscow’s “substantial” build-up of forces in Syria…

Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have begun investigating possible intelligence lapses related to Russia’s ongoing military action in Syria, it was reported early today, as NATO defense ministers held a crisis meeting in Brussels…Reuters, citing congressional officials and other official sources, reported that the House and Senate intelligence committees were looking at whether the intelligence community misjudged or overlooked signs of Moscow’s action, which began in earnest September 30 with airstrikes supporting Syrian government forces…the officials told Reuters that intelligence analysts were specifically caught off guard at the speed and aggression of Russia’s use of air power, as well as the Moscow’s targeting of Western-backed rebel groups as opposed to ISIS…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Venture poised for a breakout – updated chart…

2.  What the CRB Index is telling us about commodities right now…

3.  A bullish view on Nickel…

4.  A Gold-Lithium play on the verge of a breakout…

5.  Producer enjoys a stellar Q3, bright outlook for 2016…

6.  Drill result of the day…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,142 and $1,155 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is off $1 an ounce at $1,147…Silver has gained 12 cents to $16.00…Copper has added 2 pennies to $2.35…Crude Oil, looking much healthier (see updated chart in today’s Morning Musings), has climbed another 22 cents to $48.75 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 95.46…

China may have further increased central bank Gold holdings in September, raising them by about 15 metric tons to 1,709 tons, as it seeks to diversify away from the U.S. dollar…the value of Gold assets was $61.2 billion at the end of last month compared to $61.8 billion at the end of August, according to data from the People’s Bank of China website released yesterday…that works out to about 54.94 million troy ounces or 1,709 tons, based on the London Bullion Market Association afternoon price auction on Sept. 30, Bloomberg calculations show…the hoard was 54.45 million troy ounces a month earlier…

China announced increases of about 19 tons for July and 16 tons for August after disclosing July 17 that holdings had jumped 57% since 2009, ending 6 years of mystery (average monthly accumulation has increased substantially since July vs. the period 2009 to June 2015) while China has overtaken Russia to become the country with the 5th-largest stash…however, it still has only about 1.6% of its reserves in Gold, compared with 73% for the U.S. and 67% for Germany, World Gold Council data show…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Crude Oil continues to firm up – a fascinating WTIC chart that’s good news for the Venture…

2.  Venture “awareness” chart shows important breakout is looming…

3.  Ben Bernanke voices concerns about a lack of inflation, weighs in on Fed rate hike debate…

4. Garland camp staking update…

5. Updated chart for Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V)…

6. Claude Resources (CRJ, TSX-V) achieves record Q3 production, increases guidance for 2015…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,135 and $1,146 so far this morning…as of 8:45 am Pacific, bullion is up $12 an ounce at $1,146…Silver has surged 32 cents to $15.98…Copper is flat at $2.34…Crude Oil has climbed more than $2 a barrel to $48.36…Global Oil investments are set to be slashed by a staggering $130 billion this year, crimping supplies and ultimately boosting prices, OPEC’s chief said today, and he added that he was open to discuss the current Oil market turmoil with the United States…the remarks come as many members of OPEC have been running large deficits as they battle against American tight Oil…the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-fifth of a point to 95.50…dollar longs could get clobbered this quarter…

In a research note yesterday, analysts at Barclays said that recent short covering in Gold by hedge funds and money managers (through the week ending last Tuesday as per the latest COT report) has helped push speculative interest further away from extreme bearish positioning…however, there is still significant negative sentiment in the marketplace, they added, and that’s a good thing in our view…

“The managed money net long remains near the historical low even after the pull-back, with COMEX trading volumes also soft, indicating still negative sentiment towards Gold from investors,” the Barclays report stated…

Jonathan Butler, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi, noted in a report yesterday that Gold gross longs are 76% off their record levels and gross shorts are 70% from their all-time highs…those dynamics create plenty of room for higher prices…

The U.S. trade deficit jumped sharply in August as exports fell to the lowest level in nearly 3 years (more bad news for Janet Yellen) while imports increased, led by a surge in shipments of cell phones from China…the Commerce Department reported this morning that the deficit increased 15.6% to $48.3 billion, the worst number since March…exports of goods and services dropped 2% to $185.1 billion, the lowest level since October 2012, while imports rose 1.2% to $233.4 billion…

Exports have been hurt by the rising value of the dollar, fueled of course by the Fed “talking” about hiking rates beginning last year but actually not doing it when they had a chance (they missed their “window” and are now losing credibility)…the higher dollar, the effects of which are really just starting to kick in based on one of the Fed’s own research reports, are making U.S. goods less competitive on overseas markets at a time of weaker economic growth in China and elsewhere…

Commodity Sector On The Rebound?

At BMR, we have our own TA specialist in John, who does amazing analytical work, but it’s interesting also to see what other respected technicians in the business are also saying…Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff had some interesting observations this morning.  “There are ‘green shoots’ showing in a few markets that could be very early clues the raw commodity sector bust’ is coming to an end. Sugar, coffee and Silver prices have seen good price rallies just recently, to suggest those individual markets have bottomed out. The sideways price action in other commodity futures markets, such as sector leader Crude Oil, suggests the bears in those markets have become exhausted and price bottoms could also be in place.,” Jim concluded…

Gold, Oil May Benefit From New Russian Aggression

U.S. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney was 100% correct in 2012 when he stated Russia poses the greatest threat to U.S. national security…of course, at the time, he was mocked by President Obama in a nationally televised debate.  “When you (Romney) were asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not al Qaeda.  In the 1980‘s, they’re now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years,” Obama arrogantly and foolishly declared…oops…just more bad foreign policy judgement by this American President who also referred to ISIS as a “JV” team less than 2 years ago, and has even managed to fumble U.S. relations with its closest allies, Canada and Israel…

“The President’s naivete with regards to Russia and his faulty judgment about Russia’s intentions and objectives has led to a number of foreign policy challenges that we are facing,” Romney told Bob Schieffer on CBS’s Face The Nation…

Meanwhile, in its attempts to bolster the brutal Assad regime, Russia has targeted Syrian rebel groups backed by the CIA in a string of airstrikes running for days, leading the U.S. to conclude that it is an intentional effort by Moscow, according to American officials in a report carried by Fox News…Obama’s withdrawal of America from the world stage has created a power “vacuum” that Vladimir Putin has been more than eager to fill, triggering his bold moves into Ukraine and now the Middle East, especially since he views Obama as a very weak leader and of course a lame duck President with just 15 months left in office…

The world is more dangerous now than it has ever been, and it’ll be fascinating (if not scary) to see how this American President deals with that reality…a risk premium could easily build into both Gold and Oil as a result…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1. Updated chart for Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V) – what’s next after a breakout above the pennant…

2. Updated chart for Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) – something big must be brewing at Grizzly Central…

3. Discovery Ventures (DVN, TSX-V) secures 100% ownership of the Max mine and mill facilities…

4. Integra Gold (ICG, TSX-V) on the move as drilling ramps up at Lamaque South…

5. Update on a health care stock worthy of our readers’ due diligence….

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,130 and $1,143 so far today…as of 9:50 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,134…Silver is up 38 cents at $15.64…Copper has added 2 pennies to $2.34…Crude Oil has jumped by more than $1 a barrel to $46.63 on reports that Russia has indicated it’s “ready” to meet other Crude producers to “discuss the market”…rest assured, Vladimir Putin will likely do everything in his power, whatever he deems necessary, to give Crude a boost…Oil and gas revenues, of course, are critical to Russia’s economy and Putin’s ability to carry out an aggressive strategy on the global stage during the final 15 months of the Obama presidency…the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-quarter of a point to 96.15 after falling as low as 95.50 this morning…

In response to their country’s stock market sell-off, Chinese investors may be returning to precious metals as a safe haven…retail sales of Gold and Silver in China during August rose 17.4% year-over-year, representing about $3.9 billion in sales…

Glencore, which has had a tough 2015 and really got hammered early last week before beginning to recover, surged again today on reports that the miner was (or is) in talks with a few parties including a Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund to sell a stake in its agricultural business with the aim of cutting its debt load…the firm, however, said it’s “not aware of any reasons for these price and volume movements” in a statement issued this morning…meanwhile, Ivan Glasenberg, the billionaire head of Glencore, said at a news conference in London today that Copper prices should rise as more companies cut back mine production (historically, Copper producers have shown to be quite astute at doing this)…Glasenberg said that inventories of the metal will decline and supplies will eventually tighten…Glencore has said it will close Copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia that account for about 2% of global supply…

Canadian Energy Takeover

Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. (SU, TSX), Canada’s biggest energy company, has made an unsolicited offer to buy out Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. (COS, TSX) for about $4.3 billion, taking advantage of plunging Crude prices to add production in Alberta…Suncor is offering a 43% premium to Friday’s closing COS share price and promised higher dividends to Canadian Oil Sands shareholders if the proposal is accepted.  “This is a financially compelling opportunity for COS shareholders,” Steve Williams, Suncor’s President and CEO,  said in a statement this morning.  “We’re offering a significant premium to COS’ current market price and also providing exposure to a meaningful dividend increase.”

COS is up nearly $3 a share to $9.15 through the first 3+ hours of trading today while SU has dipped 83 cents to $34.54…

Crude Oil Update

Saudi Arabia yesterday made deep reductions to the prices it charges for its Oil, hard on the heels of cuts last month by rival producers in the Gulf…with U.S. production still increasing despite low Oil prices, OPEC members are still battling to keep their share of growing markets in Asia…in a list of official prices sent to customers, state-owned Saudi Aramco cut the price of its light Crude deliveries to Asia by $1.70 a barrel…as a result, it switched to a discount of $1.60 a barrel against the rival Dubai benchmark from a premium of 10 cents a barrel previously…the company also cut its prices for heavy Oil by $2 a barrel to the Far East and by 30 cents a barrel to the United States…the move came as Iran, Iraq and other countries in the Middle East made deeper cuts in their official prices than Saudi Arabia last month…

Russian Oil output rose to a post-Soviet record last month as producers continue to take advantage of the weak ruble to push ahead with drilling…

While there are certainly some supply issues regarding Oil at the moment, the demand side is clearly picking up with the global growth rate higher than at any point since 2010…according statistics collected by the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI), Oil demand rose 3.3% in the first half of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014…this data comes from 59 countries that together account for about 80% of the world’s Oil consumption and suggests that in 2015, demand will increase by an average of 1.65 million barrels per day…this figure is in line with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimate that global Oil consumption this year will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day…the major share of the increase belongs to China, which reported a petroleum consumption growth of 1.3 million barrels per day, a more than 13% lift…the Chinese are Oil guzzlers…we love it…

Where Are All The “Environmentalists” & Canada’s Left-Wing Media On This One? 

Wow…if there’s a leak at a tailings pond, “environmentalists”, other “activists” and the left-wing media herd go on a stampede…but if you’re a city that’s dumping 8 billion liters of raw sewage into a river system, that’s perfectly okay…where are all the mining and pipeline haters on this one?????

Montreal officials are moving forward with a controversial plan to dump 8 billion liters of raw sewage into the St. Lawrence River…the sewage dump, which has come under some criticism, was temporarily put on hold so the city could study alternatives…but officials confirmed Friday that emptying a major sewer interceptor into the river is the only viable option that will allow necessary construction on the Bonaventure Expressway to be completed…officials have said the raw sewage will not affect drinking water, but residents are being asked to avoid coming in direct contact with the water on the southeast shores of the Island of Montreal and to avoid recreational activities like fishing during the dump…Environment Canada has said it cannot authorize the sewage dump, but stopped short of saying whether it has the power to stop the city from proceeding…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Japan’s Nikkei reclaimed the 18000 level overnight as it added 280 points or 1.6% to close at 18005…China’s Shanghai remains closed for the extended National Day holiday…an extended national holiday…

Europe

European stocks were up strongly today, extending gains from Friday, after a weak U.S. employment report dampened expectations that the Fed will start raising interest rates soon…

North America

The Dow, coming off its biggest intra-day reversal in 4 years Friday, is up another 239 points as of 9:50 am Pacific…in Toronto, the TSX has climbed 196 points while the Venture is up 4 points at 530…

Biorem Inc. (BRM, TSX-V) Update

Biorem (BRM, TSX-V), one of our favorite non-resource opportunities and a profitable enterprise, announced this morning that it has received 3 new orders totaling $2.4 million…the orders are for air emission abatement projects in North America and China with anticipated delivery in early 2016…

“These recent orders support management’s strategy for market diversification,” said Derek Webb, BRM President and CEO.  “Facing the challenge of high-profile dense urban applications, customers are turning to Biorem to ensure they meet their compliance obligations. On one of the orders, Biorem is providing an advanced solution for an underground waste water treatment facility in China, while on another, we are providing a standard modular unit for a North American customer requiring a simple and cost-effective solution.

“These recent orders demonstrate our ability to compete in both the high-value and commodity segments of the global air emissions abatement market with our innovative product offerings. We continue to be excited at the opportunities being developed by Biorem across diverse geographical areas,” Webb concluded. 

BRM is up 3.5 cents at 50 cents as of 9:50 am Pacific…

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Update

Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V), which is looking very powerful technically and fundamentally at the moment, has pushed above resistance on strong volume morning as accumulation begins ahead of what could be some very exciting near-term developments on the ground at Grizzly Central as reported by the company September 17…

A picture can tell a thousand words, so we urge our readers to look at the Google Earth map below and understand the importance of a fertile pluton, the Kaketsa “heat engine”, which appears to be intimately associated with the fascinating structures at Grizzly Central where a new grassroots drilling discovery in this part of the Sheslay Corridor is a distinct possibility in our view…

Technically, the turning point for GGI came in mid-August when it broke above a downtrend line in place since early in the year…we do exhaustive technical research at BMR, and this is one of the most potentially explosive individual charts we’ve come across on the Venture at the moment…

The breakout above the price and RSI(14) downtrend lines, the reversal to the upside in the 50-day SMA, the near-term reversal of the 100-day (not shown on this chart), the increasing buy pressure (CMF), and the potential for a near-term bullish +DI cross all suggest that indeed there could be “masked deposits” under the extensive overburden at Grizzly Central…the drill rig, the truth machine, will soon start providing some answers…

GGI is up 2 cents at 11 cents on volume of nearly half a million shares as of 9:50 am Pacific…

Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V) Update

Equitas Resources (EQT, TSX-V), which may have locked up some additional ground in the Garland Nickel camp according to government staking records viewed by our research team, is off 2 pennies at 18.5 cents as of 9:50 am Pacific after Friday’s major intra-day reversal when it broke above a pennant formation on a massive surge in volume…the interesting thing is the staking rush at Garland and completely surrounding EQT in advance of any drill results (EQT’s drilling at Garland started less than 2 weeks ago)…we can confirm this morning that there are now no contiguous/adjacent claim parcels available to be staked…all the more reason why investors should be taking a close look at Athabasca Nuclear Corp. (ASC, TSX-V) which has assembled a large land package around Equitas as the drill turns…

Drilling at EQT’s target “D”

Athabasca Nuclear Corp. (ASC, TSX-V) Update

We noted recently how Athabasca Nuclear (ASC, TSX-V) has broken out above a long-term downtrend line, a very bullish development in the current junior resource climate…the 200-day SMA, currently 3 cents, is also now just beginning to turn to the upside, so a major reversal appears to be in its early stages here…it’s important to emphasize that ASC is not just a Garland “area play”, though its large land position there could nonetheless give the stock a substantial lift over the near-term depending on developments with Equitas…Athabasca is active on several Uranium and diamond projects, has a clean balance sheet and just under 52 million shares outstanding…President and CEO Ryan Kalt owns 25% of the stock, and the rest is believed to be mostly in retail hands (no major funds involved which is good)…

RSI(14) has pushed above the 50% level, so momentum is building…the lack of liquidity in this play at current levels can be viewed positively in the sense that existing shareholders see value here and very few of them are interested in selling at 3 or 4 cents…liquidity will improve as ASC attains a more reasonable valuation – that’s certainly what the chart is telling us…as always, perform your own due diligence…

ASC is off half a penny at 3.5 cents as of 9:50 am Pacific…

TSX 6-Year Weekly Chart

Below is an updated 6-year monthly chart for the TSX after Friday’s significant intra-day reversal…exceptional support around the 50% Fib. retracement level (12800) has held on the TSX through the turbulent last couple of months…this chart refutes the doomsayers’ prediction of a Q4 crash in the markets…

TSX Gold Index-Venture-Gold Comparative

An unusually large gap has opened between the price of Gold and the TSX Gold Index and the Venture…we see some “catching up” by both the Gold Index and the Venture before the year is out…

HGU (Horizons S&P/TSX Global Gold Bull Plus ETF)

The TSX Gold Index has a bullish tone to it at the moment, and the double-leveraged HGU appears to be in the process of a move that could take it to the top of the downsloping channel you see in this 2+ year weekly chart…the HGU is also now breaking out above its RSI(14) downtrend line, in place for most of the year, while the SS indicator is giving positive signals as well…Gold stocks are set for a run…

As of 9:50 am Pacific, the HGU is up 19 cents at $3.59…

Short-Term Silver Update

Silver continues to be volatile within a range between about $14 and $16…the band of Fib. resistance between $15.29 and $15.78 has proven to be very stubborn since early July, certainly due to the reality of a slowing global economy with Silver having a lot of industrial uses…

Silver’s immediate challenges are to overcome Fib. resistance at $15.29 and $15.79…RSI(14) continues to trend higher which is encouraging…

Silver Long-Term Chart

An explosive push higher (eventually) – is this actually a scenario that could unfold in Silver over the next couple of years?…quite possibly, given the look of this 34-year monthly chart, though at the moment it’s hard to understand all the factors that could come into play to generate the kind of “Wave 5” move that could develop…

Have we seen the  bottom of “Wave 4”?…that’s quite possible, but still too early to tell…encouragingly, RSI(14) has so far managed to hold support which goes back to 2001…

Sell pressure continues to remain very intense, however, as shown by the CMF – amazingly, at levels not seen in nearly 25 years since the low of $3.51…this intense sell pressure at the moment, which started modestly in early 2013, could continue for a while yet…this should be viewed in a larger context as a bullish contrarian indicator given historical patterns…it doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that Silver has found a bottom just yet…

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI and EQT.  Jon also holds a share position in ASC.