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Gold has traded between $1,247 and $1,266 so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $5 an ounce at $1,253…Silver is off a nickel at $15.84..Copper is flat at $2.30…Crude Oil, finally above $40 a barrel, has added another 46 cents to $40.66 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded slightly to 94.84…

Equity markets are up this week, Oil is up, Gold is up, Silver is up, Copper is up, hens are up, hogs are up…significantly, however, the greenback is down…investors can look forward to cheap cash the rest of this year after the Fed’s dovish policy statement Wednesday, and even 2 rate hikes might be questionable given that this is a U.S. election year (and a highly unusual one at that)…central banks around the world continue to experiment in real time…there is no lab for them to practice in…

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 1.5% to 807.09 tonnes yesterday from 795.20 tonnes on Wednesday…

Oil Update

WTIC is headed for a 5th straight week of gains, and John’s HOU chart this morning suggests this move will continue…Oil prices have climbed by more than 50% from 12-year lows reached in December, bolstered as OPEC floated the idea of a production freeze…cartel kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC producers led by Russia will meet on April 17 in Qatar capital Doha in an effort to hammer out the first global supply deal in 15 years…

The EIA reported Wednesday that Crude inventories in the U.S. increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week to March 11 to a record high of 523.2 million barrels, though that was a much smaller build than the 3.4 million barrels expected by analysts…

Many analysts are still cautious, however, about how much “staying power” Crude will have above $40 a barrel.  “Global fundamentals are little changed and Oil has instead been lifted by higher risk-appetite,” BNP Paribas said in a note. “A dialogue among key producing countries to address Oil output will at best yield a decision to freeze output, but not the much-needed reduction required to rebalance the market.”

Analysts estimate world-wide surpluses continue to mount at a rate of 1 million to 2 million barrels a day…Saudi Arabia produced and exported more Oil in February than it did the month before, data showed yesterday…however, even if U.S. producers seek to reverse recent output cutbacks and bring more wells back online in the event prices stabilize above $40 a barrel, several obstacles remain…Oil-field services workers who drove the production boom have been laid off or redeployed, and it will take time to staff up…and getting wells up and running again will require capital at a time when banks have been worried about producers’ ability to make good on outstanding loans…access to capital just isn’t what it used to be in this sector…

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Silver continues to flirt with a major potential breakout…

2.  The new trading range for the TSX after the recent key breakout above 13000…

3.  A 5-cent stock that should be accumulated…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,255 and $1,272 so far today after yesterday’s powerful post-Fed $30 advance…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $3 an ounce at $1,265…Silver has shot up 38 cents to $15.98 (a key breakout would be through the $16 level)…Copper has gained 4 pennies to $2.28…Crude Oil has climbed $1.31 a barrel to $39.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled another full point to 94.72, the first time since October it has traded below 95…bears are tightening their grip on the greenback, and that’s positive for commodities and the Venture…

The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady as expected yesterday, but the tone of the post-meeting statement and Janet Yellen’s news conference was decidedly dovish which sent the dollar reeling and Gold higher…fresh projections showed policymakers expect just 2 quarter-point increases by year-end, half the number forecast in December…

The Fed’s cautious stance yesterday, and its concerns regarding global growth, puts the U.S. central bank more into line with the world’s other most important central banks…in January, the Bank of Japan cut rates into negative territory…last month, the People’s Bank of China reduced reserve requirements, freeing banks to lend more…last week, the ECB cut rates further into negative territory and expanded its bond-buying program…weaker global growth, said Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, is a key reason officials now expect the U.S. to grow just 2.2% this year, down from 2.4% forecast just 3 months ago…

Global risks still abound, from heavily indebted emerging markets to a British vote on whether to leave the European Union and likely the most fractious presidential election in U.S. history – all at a time when the world faces unprecedented terrorism threats, an unstable Middle East and an aggressive Russia…

Investors increased holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by Gold for a second straight day yesterday, after a rare outflow on Monday, with the total jumping 0.2% to 1,738.3 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…

“Gold has already rallied more than $200 an ounce since hitting cycle lows in December, and arguably the ceiling for Gold may be approaching,” HSBC said in a note.  “The Fed projections may only be conforming to what many in the market already assumed. This could limit further Gold gains. That said, the dovish tilt in the Fed’s policy statement should be enough to reaffirm and galvanise the Gold rally.”

What is the “ceiling” for Gold?…we’ll explore that in an updated chart this morning…

Oil Update

Oil’s bullish trend remains firmly intact, and dollar weakness is helping as well…we remain long on the HOU (Crude double bull ETF) until at least the $4.60 target level is reached which would represent a 55% gain since this position was taken during the last week of February…John’s ETF calls since September remain 100% accurate and have delivered some spectacular short-term profits…

OPEC and non-OPEC producers including the top two exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will hold talks on April 17 in Qatar over a plan to freeze output, increasing the likelihood of the first global supply deal in 15 years…there will likely be an opportunity over the next month to go short on the Oil market, in anticipation of a retrace, but now is certainly not the time…

The Trump Factor

Like him or not, Donald Trump is turning U.S. politics on its head…he has rewritten the election playbook, and for that reason he’s Hillary Clinton’s worst nightmare…his ability to read the electorate and energize voters – he’s the politically incorrect blue collar billionaire who doesn’t ever need a script or a teleprompter like Obama – has been vastly underestimated by the political and media establishments everywhere…investors would be wise to consider taking the possibility of a Trump presidency very seriously, and how his campaign over the coming months may impact an array of markets including Gold and the U.S. dollar…

Below is yet another example of Trump’s creativity as he goes after the Democrats’ and Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy weaknesses in a short video ad released yesterday…

https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/

In today’s Morning Musings…

1.  The Venture continues its march toward the 600 level (momentum remains very strong)…

2.  Graphite One (GPH, TSX-V) gets another boost on fresh news…

3.  If Silver surges, so too may Silver plays including Canasil Resources (CLZ, TSX-V)…

4.  Updates on MTO, AGE, PRG, SSO and CRJ…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,226 and $1,236 so far today, ahead of this morning’s Fed policy decision…as of 8:00 am Pacific, bullion is off $1 an ounce at $1,231…Silver and Copper are also both flat at $15.25 and $2.25, respectively…Crude Oil has surged $1.31 a barrel to $37.65 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped more than a third of a point to 97.00…if Janet Yellen and the Fed really wanted to, they could do some serious technical damage to the greenback today (surely they consider these things?) in order to create more leeway in terms of raising interest rates later this year…

The world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, said its holdings rose 2.1 tonnes yesterday after the fund reported its biggest 1-day outflow since early December on Monday…

Gold declined for a 3rd straight session yesterday as longs took some money off the table ahead of today’s Fed decision…this had more to do with profit taking and paring of exposure than a trend reversal, in our view…Gold’s support band between $1,200 and $1,220 is exceptionally strong and could certainly be tested today with some knee-jerk selling if the Fed’s message leans heavily on the hawkish side…policymakers are widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged while also signaling that another rate hike is not too far off as long as the job market and the inflation outlook continue to improve…February CPI numbers, released this morning, increased more than expected…

Oil Update

Oil prices firmed today on an announcement that producers will meet next month in Qatar to discuss a proposal to freeze output and on growing signs of a decline in U.S. Crude production…producers both from and outside OPEC will hold talks in the capital Doha on April 17, Qatari Oil minister Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada said…around 15 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 73% of global Oil output, support the initiative, the minister said in a statement…

Standard Chartered said supply concerns due to non-OPEC production cuts could drive prices above $60 a barrel by the end of the year.  “We think that in coming months supply-side concerns will dominate, particularly when global inventories start to fall, which we think will happen in the 3rd quarter,” the bank said in a note…

Investors are digested data just released from the U.S. Energy Information Administration which showed an inventory build of 1.3 million barrels in the U.S. last week, below the expected 3.4 million build…

WTIC 6-Month Daily Chart

The current bullish trend in WTIC continues despite the pullback in prices the last couple of trading sessions…technically, a classic pattern has emerged as Crude gained momentum after pushing above a downtrend line…it then retraced back to that downtrend line yesterday, just like it did in late February after it broke out above a shorter-term downtrend line…providing additional support now is the rising 50-day moving average (SMA), currently $32.52…we’re still expecting WTIC to a take a run in the coming weeks at its 200-day SMA, currently just above $43…

China Watch

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said it would be “impossible” for China to fall short in meeting its relatively high economic growth targets even as it pushes ahead with structural reforms (of course it would be “impossible” as the communist country’s numbers are likely rigged)…speaking to reporters at the conclusion of China’s annual legislative session, Li said China won’t suffer a hard landing or sharp downturn, and can achieve growth and reform simultaneously (they can’t implement a proper circuit breaker system for their stock markets, but they can magically balance growth and reform)…

“Reform and development aren’t contradictory,” Li said. “We should be able to stimulate market vitality and support economic development via structural reforms.”

At the opening of the National People’s Congress earlier this month, China set growth targets of 6.5% to 7% for this year and an average benchmark of at least 6.5% from now until 2020…economists say this relatively high growth target at a time when the economy is losing momentum suggests China is favoring growth over structural reform, which could prevent massive job losses and social instability but set back the shift of China’s economy from investment and manufacturing to consumption and services…

Canada Suddenly $30 Billion In The Hole

No surprise – the Financial Post, citing government sources, reported this morning that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will post a deficit of about $30 billion in his first budget next Tuesday…this of course would be triple what the Liberal leader promised during last fall’s election campaign, but of course deficits and debt meant nothing to Trudeau’s father when he was Prime Minister in the 1970’s…they mean nothing to the current PM either, obviously…Pierre Trudeau’s energy policies also inflicted severe pain on Western Canada, and we’re seeing a repeat of that too with Justin Trudeau’s fanaticism over climate change and what amounts to a second disastrous National Energy Program…few Canadians noticed that in the large entourage the new PM brought with him to the “show” with Obama in Washington last week, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources was strangely absent…he was told to stay home…that spoke volumes about Trudeau’s economic vision of this country which has the unwavering support of the lefties at the CBC…

In today’s Morning vMusings…

1.  Where is Copper headed?…

2.  TSX Gold Index update ahead of today’s Fed meeting…

3.  The importance of the Venture’s relative performance vs. the broader equity markets…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,226 and $1,237 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,231 on more chart consolidation and profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement…Silver is off a nickel at $15.27…Copper has shed a penny to $2.24…Crude Oil has dropped $1.11 a barrel to $36.07 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained one-tenth of a point to 96.70…

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 1.08% to 790.14 tonnes yesterday from 798.77 tonnes on Friday, one of the rare outflow days in recent weeks…

UBS on Gold:  “The market has had a good run so far this year and some more consolidation would be healthy at this juncture, especially given the rebound in equities and recent positive surprises in U.S. employment and inflation data.  The pullbacks in Gold this year have generally been relatively shallow and short-lived, not really providing investors with many chances to get in at better levels. But FOMC risks up ahead suggest that this week’s pullback could offer market participants who have so far opted to stay on the sidelines the opportunity to build Gold exposure at more attractive levels.”

As John’s charts have shown (updated version this morning), Gold has a very strong support band between $1,200 and $1,220…

Antofagasta, the publicly-traded Copper miner controlled by Chile’s richest family, fell as much as 10% in the London market today (rebounded to close 4.5% lower) after the company reported that its annual annual profit slumped 99% because of the 2015 metals rout, forcing the producer to abandon its dividend…sales dropped 34% to $3.4 billion.  “We know that Copper is a cyclical industry and as a result of the actions that we have taken over the past year we will be positioned to benefit from the recovery when it comes,” CEO Diego Hernandez stated…

The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged today but downgraded its view of the economy, opening the door to further action in months ahead…the BOJ’s decision followed the ECB’s moves last week to cut negative rates further and expand its asset-buying program, underscoring the difficulty major central banks are encountering in terms of trying to prop up slowing growth…economic conditions in Japan have improved little – some have worsened – since the BOJ decided in late January to impose negative rates, an unorthodox step seen as a desperate attempt to ignite growth…

Fed Watch

The Fed began its 2-day meeting today but the overwhelming consensus is that the central bank will keep rates unchanged when it unveils a fresh policy statement tomorrow…however, nearly all the economists, fund managers and strategists in the latest CNBC Fed Survey predict that the next rate hike will come in June…in fact, 83% say the Fed’s next rate increase could come in June or even earlier, with a small minority saying April or May…

The sharp revision to U.S. January retail sales was this morning’s major data surprise…January’s sales were adjusted to show a 0.4% decline instead of the previously reported 0.2% increase…meanwhile, the Commerce Department also reported that February retail sales dipped 0.1% as automobile purchases slowed and cheaper gasoline undercut receipts at service stations…

U.S. producer prices fell in February on lower energy and food costs, but prices were unchanged from a year ago, suggesting the downward trend was near an end…the Labor Department said today that its producer price index (PPI) dropped 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% percent in January…in the 12 months through February, the PPI was unchanged after falling 0.2% in January – the first time since the beginning of 2015 that the year-on-year PPI did not decline…

In today’s Morning vMusings…

1.  Gold’s current technical strengths…

2.  Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX-V) releases updated resource estimate for Pinion deposit in Nevada…

3.  Updated charts for PGM and BFF…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold has traded between $1,241 and $1,262 so far today…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $7 an ounce at $1,243…Silver is off a nickel at $15.42…Copper is a penny lower at $2.25…Crude Oil has corrected $1.63 a barrel to $36.87 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied more than one-third of a point to 96.54…

Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish position in COMEX Gold to the highest in 13 months in the week to March 8, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday, as safe-haven buying lifted prices to the highest since February 2015…this was the 8th increase in net long positions in the last 9 weeks, though some may interpret this as a sign of a looming correction…since the beginning of the year, the equivalent of 481 tons of Gold have been purchased via the futures market, according to Commerzbank…the aggregate open interest in Gold futures and options on the Comex is at its highest since July 2013…

Meanwhile, assets in global Gold exchange-traded products reached 1,735.9 metric tons as of Thursday, the latest data compiled by Bloomberg show…that’s the biggest hoard since July 2014…

Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie reiterated in a report last week that they expect the metal to fall as the U.S. economy strengthens…signs of consumer growth would help to “dissolve market fears”, the analysts said in a March 7 note, citing a near-term target of $1,100…Currie’s bearish position in early 2013 proved correct…he may not be so lucky this time around, however…Gold’s technical posture has changed dramatically over the last 2 months, suggesting the current move is different than any of the previous (failed) rallies in Gold since 2012…bullion is on track for a strong 2016 with powerful new support at $1,200, limiting the metal’s current downside potential…investors have shown they will buy into any significant dips…

One Canadian financial executive quoted by Bloomberg this morning said it well regarding Gold’s current behavior:  “(It) has some legs, because I don’t think there’s any easy solution to this conundrum of slow growth,” said John Stephenson, the CEO of Stephenson & Co. Capital Management in Toronto, which oversees $55 million CDN.  “What’s driving it is really just this uncertainty surrounding central bank policy, negative interest rates, because they’re really at the heart of the whole issue right now that markets are struggling with. In that kind of environment, Gold looks pretty attractive.”

Fed Meeting Begins Tomorrow

The Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting starts tomorrow…investors will be watching closely for clues on the future pace of U.S. rate increases after the central bank hiked rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December…the meeting will be followed by a summary of economic projections from individual Fed members (all eyes will be on the ‘dot plots’ for guidance on the Fed’s future policy outlook) as well as a news conference by Chair Janet Yellen…recent weakness in the U.S. dollar gives Yellen a little more wiggle room…keep in mind that if the Fed displays a hawkish tone, Gold isn’t necessarily going to fall through the floor..instead, a hawkish Fed could help shift traders’ attention toward inflation which historically has often occurred around the time when central bankers start to remove liquidity…

Crude Oil Update

The U.S. rig count continues to fall, dropping for a 12th week in a row on Friday to its lowest level in at least 67 years…weekly data by Baker Hughes showed the combined count of Oil and gas rigs in the U.S. dropped to a multi-decade record 480 rigs…a drop in rig counts doesn’t necessarily translate into a fall in production…U.S. producers have also become more efficient, which has helped keep output levels in the country above 9 million barrels a day…if prices continue to edge close to $40, the trend of U.S. shale producers taking rigs out of action may end as they look to an environment when prices rise again…this could harm the chances of a price recovery further down the line as supply levels are maintained…

Iran’s Oil exports are due to reach 2 million bpd in the Iranian month that ends on March 19, up from 1.75 million in the previous month, Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said over the weekend…in addition, Iran says it will only join the output freeze group once it has reached production of 4 million barrels a day…however, it also appears that Iran is struggling to find a market for all of its Oil….the International Energy Institute reported last week that around 72 million barrels of Iranian oil are being stored on water…

OPEC expects slightly lower Oil demand in 2016 than previously forecast…the cartel’s Crude demand forecast, released this morning, was revised down by 100,000 barrels per day for the full year to 31.5 million bpd…

In today’s Morning vMusings…

1.  ETF update…

2.  Reviewing a 200% gainer since the beginning of February…

3.  Bold Venture junior announces stock split…

4.  Silver update…

Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…

Gold producers and near-producers both picked up the pace last week in the BMR Top 50 Opportunities List that was unveiled in early December, though money continues to flow steadily into junior exploration stocks.

Combined, the 5 categories have posted a stellar average gain of 38.8% since December 4 vs. an 11.7% advance for the Venture.  The TSX is up 1.2% during that time, the Dow has fallen 3.5% while the NASDAQ is off 7.9%.  Gold has climbed 15.1% since December 4.

The BMR Explorers’ Category has had the strongest momentum the last few weeks with the 17 picks now sporting an average return of 43.8%.  Cordoba Minerals (CDB, TSX-V) and Lithium X Energy (LIX, TSX-V) have led the way with massive gains of 208% and 174%, respectively.

Gold Producers have jumped 45.2% with Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI, TSX), Claude Resources (CRJ, TSX), Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) and OceanaGold (OGC, TSX) setting the pace with gains of 80%, 79.2%, 67.2% and 50%, respectively.  Seven of the 8 selections in that category have gained in value.

Near-Term Producers/Advanced Resources category is now up 43.6%.  True Gold Mining (TGM, TSX-V), about to be merged with Endeavour Mining (EDV, TSX), has surged 90% since December 4.  Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX-V) has powered 83.6% higher, Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) is on the move, up 80%, while Nemaska Lithium (NMX, TSX-V) and GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) have also been hot.

The best performing category is Sleepers Under A Nickel – 3 very speculative plays that are doing extremely well.  Walker River Resources (WRR, TSX-V) is up a whopping 140%.

The Non-Resource category is gaining traction and is now up 13.4%, led by a 41.7% jump in Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V).  Greencastle, which is still trading below its working capital position, holds a couple of Gold properties in Nevada.  More importantly, however, they own 8 million shares of Deveron Resources (DVR, TSX-V) which will soon to be trading on the CSE as a drone and technology deal with an incredibly exciting business model and some powerful players behind it.

We’ve also added 4 new companies to our list – Canasil Resources (CZL, TSX-V), Calibre Mining (CXB, TSX-V), Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) and Nevada Energy Metals (BFF, TSX-V) are already up a combined 14.9% over just 3 weeks.

In today’s report is a performance review of each category.  In total, 38 of the 50 picks have increased in value since the 4th of December, 10 are down and 2 are unchanged.  The average return so far, as mentioned, is an impressive 37.3%.  We’ll be issuing an updated Top 50 Opportunities List (#2) in the near future.

1.  Four explorers post 3-month gains of 100% or more…

2.  Interest remains high in Lithium plays as evidenced by two large financings announced Friday…

3.  Certain non-resource plays that could surge during this 1st half of 2016…

In total, 35 of the 50 picks have increased in value since the 4th of December, 13 are down and 2 are unchanged.  The average return so far, as mentioned, is an impressive 38.8%.  We’ll be issuing an updated Top 50 Opportunities List (#2) in the near future.

To view the full report, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…