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June 30, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,312 and $1,323 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is off slightly at $1,317…Silver has jumped 16 cents to $18.43…Copper is flat at $2.18…Crude Oil is off $1.14 a barrel to $48.74 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped two-thirds of a point to 96.28

Holdings of the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, rose by another 2.7 tonnes yesterday to the highest level in 3 years…its holdings have increased by 81.4 tonnes this month and 131 tonnes this quarter, marking a 2nd consecutive quarterly inflow for the 1st time since late 2012

Post-Brexit, one research firm says it was eyeing $1,400 Gold before the referendum and is sticking with its forecast…Julian Jessop, head of commodities research for London-based Capital Economics, told Kitco News he wouldn’t be surprised to see the yellow metal hit $1,400 an ounce over the next few weeks…

Gold is up nearly 9% this month, and is on track for a 2nd straight quarterly gain…however, resistance remains at $1,320…Silver, meanwhile, is heading for its best quarter in nearly 4 years, up about 19% after yesterday’s big jump…the Gold-Silver ratio, which measures the number of Silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of Gold, has fallen to its lowest in nearly 9 months at 71.5

“Silver is clearly profiting from two different sides at once just now: from the higher Gold price on the one hand and from firm base metal prices on the other, as Silver is used for the most part in industry,” Commerzbank said in a note…

Sir, May I Have Some More Stimulus!

Further stimulus measures may soon be needed for the U.K. following the country’s vote to leave the European Union, according to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who is forecasting a “material slowing” in economic growth as a result of last week’s referendum.  “The economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing with likely be required over the summer,” Carney said in a speech at the Bank of England in London…

Gold In Canadian Dollars

Gold closed at $1,709 CDN yesterday and the rising 50-day moving average (SMA) at $1,651 coincides almost exactly with new Fib. support…

There is little doubt, based on this 2.5-year weekly chart that has been extremely reliable, that Gold in loonie terms will hit at least the $1,900 area in the coming months…for an emerging producer such as Gold Bullion (GBB, TSX-V), which we highlighted in an earlier post this morning, the current price for Gold in Canadian dollars is $300 above their Pre-Feasibility assumptions for the high-grade “rolling start” at Granada…many other producers and near-producers as well are going to benefit from higher price ranges than assumed in PEA’s and feasibility studies carried out during the bear market…

Gold Canadian Dollars June 30

The Risks Of Being Soft On Terrorism

This is not how we want Gold to push higher over the next couple of years, but the sad reality is that a failed strategy to combat radical Islamist terrorism may cause so much global turmoil that bullion will simply explode as a “safe haven” investment…

Did you watch the “Three Amigos” news conference yesterday, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s opening speech?…the mainstream (liberal) media of course didn’t pick up on this, but his remarks were a classic example of how he and President Obama are both tone deaf on the issue of radical Islamist terrorism…not surprisingly, Trudeau’s comments were also entirely in line with the Obama administration’s disturbing pattern of “playing down” terrorist attacks, either abroad or at home, and crafting misleading narratives…remember how Benghazi was handled during the middle of the November 2012 elections, not to mention Fort Hood and San Bernardino thereafter?…

In his opening comments, less than 24 hours after the terrorist attack at Turkey’s main airport (believed to have been carried out by ISIS), Trudeau made no mention of terrorism, though he did make an interesting reference to Orlando with a narrative Obama must have signed off on and loved…

“One of the first items we discussed was our common respect for diversity and our firm support for LGBTQ2 rights, especially in the wake of the shootings earlier this month in Orlando.” (English)

“The United States and Mexico both lost citizens in Orlando.  That tragedy has strengthened our determination to protect the rights of LGBTQ2 people.  And on behalf of – and we urge all leaders around the world to do the same.” (French)

Wow, in less than 30 seconds, and in a news conference carried on U.S. networks, Trudeau turned an Islamist terrorist attack against all of America and the continent (or the “infidels” as we’re called by ISIS and other Islamist terror groups), against the West’s values of freedom and democracy, into a simple domestic shooting “tragedy” that targeted the gay community, simply out of political correctness and a desire to not “offend” Muslims (plays well into the Democrats’ gun control message as well)…Trudeau couldn’t even bring himself to say the word, “terrorism” (from a government that prides itself on “scientific evidence”)…

The defining issue of our time is not climate change but the threat of radical Islamist terrorism, and yet we have leaders in North America and elsewhere in the world who refuse to even identify or call out the problem for what it is…we don’t doubt that there are more peace-loving Muslims around the globe than radical extremists targeting the West, and it’s critical to get them to be part of this struggle that has corrupted their religion…how can we possibly engage those Muslims, and convince them that they have to take action against the extremists in their midst, when they hear a narrative from us that pretends the problem in their “community” doesn’t even exist?…

Former New York mayor Rudy Guiliani, who has to be considered an expert on the topic of terrorism and jihadists, made these comments last night on Fox News in an interview with Sean Hannity:

“It’s got to be (Obama’s) ideology that’s overruling common sense, facts and truth…I think it’s an insult to the good Muslim people when you don’t point out that this is a certain group of radical Muslims – they don’t represent the good Muslim people…Muslims should stand up and demand that he (Obama) use the words “radical Islam’, and say he can use those words and we’re not defensive about it because we’re decent, honest, honorable people and we hate those people who are acting that way.” (Guiliani)

In today’s Morning Musings…

1. Venture closes in on key resistance in the high 720’s

2. High-grade Gold from B.C. to Nevada to Fiji…

3. Another new addition to the BMR Top Opportunities List

Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect until June 30 only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings… 

SAVE 25% with a risk-free subscription (as little as $1 per day) as you gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content…

Comments (20)

Gold In Canadian Dollars, And The Other “Gold Bullion” (GBB)

Canadian Gold producers have been on fire this year, led by Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which has been our favorite for quite some time.  The Rouyn-Noranda based company’s share price started the year at $4.50 and closed yesterday at $12.04 as it rapidly closes in on its all-time high of nearly $13.50 in late 2011.

Richmont’s turnaround and amazing run actually began at the beginning of 2014 when the stock could have been bought for just over $1 per share!  Its high-grade Island Gold mine in northern Ontario was the catalyst, and of course Richmont is now being aided by a much higher Gold price in Canadian dollars (see chart below).

Gold Bullion Development Corp. (GBB, TSX-V)

If you’re looking for a turnaround story under 10 cents among the juniors, consider Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) – another Rouyn-Noranda based company that we’ve followed closely over the years (in February we added it to our Top Opportunities List at a nickel, just prior to a 3-fold jump in 3 months).

GBB just came out with news this morning regarding an interesting high-grade Gold exploration opportunity it’s pursuing in the Gowganda Camp 45 miles southwest of Kirkland Lake, but of course GBB’s key asset is the Granada Gold mine in Rouyn-Noranda that has finally been fully permitted by the Quebec government (“Certificate of Authorization” received, at long last!).

Late last month, after the CA was announced, we warned about the possibility of a near-term pullback in GBB out of temporarily overbought conditions after the stock had tripled in value from a low of a nickel at the end of February to 15 cents (resistance).

Guess what that same chart is telling us now! 

RSI(14) has unwound to support at 50% while the previous Fib. resistance band between 7 and 8 cents is now new price support, while shorter-term charts also suggest GBB is gearing up for an immediate reversal.

This is a 2nd chance to get in at a favorable valuation on an emerging new Canadian Gold producer targeting 25,000 ounces per year in its 3-year high-grade “rolling start” followed by a goal of 100,000 ounces annually from the broader resources within the expansive LONG Bars Zone at Granada.

With the “CA” now in hand, and the project fully permitted, GBB is also a more attractive potential takeover target if a bigger player likes the idea of acquiring Gold resources at less than $10 an ounce in a favorable jurisdiction surrounded by excellent infrastructure.

The encouraging 2014 Pre-Feasibility Study on GBB’s “rolling start” also assumed a Gold price of just $1,400 CDN, $300 per ounce below where the yellow metal is now in loonie terms.

“Wave 1” in GBB was on the breakout above the long-term downtrend line.  “Wave 2” has been the healthy pullback from the high last month.  The next wave could be the longest and most powerful, consistent with how we view Gold over the balance of this year and beyond.  As always, perform your own due diligence.

GBB June 30

Gold In Canadian Dollars

Can there be any doubt, based on this chart, that Gold is headed to a new all-time high this year in Canadian dollars?

Below is John’s most recent Gold chart in Canadian dollars (June 23).  We’ll have an updated version in today’s Morning Musings.  Measured Fib. resistance on this 2.5-year weekly is $1,876.  Our longer-term charts, though, are pointing to the possibility of $2,800 U.S. during this cycle, and that would likely mean +$3,000 CDN.  Global threats, from radical Islamist extremists to the level of negative-yielding debt, could ultimately push bullion into the stratosphere.

We stated all along that Gold bottomed in loonie terms during the spring of 2013.  Those who caught on to that early have made a lot of money on Canadian producers in particular, but there’s still plenty of upside potential over the next year or two.  The same tsunami of buying that drove Internet stocks to dizzying heights in 1999/early 2000 may appear in Gold stocks in general anytime over the next 12 to 24 months.

Gold June 24

Note:  Jon holds a share position in GBB.

Comments (9)

June 29, 2016

Father-Son Gold Hunting Team Keeps Winning In Mexico, And They Can Win For You!

When I grow up I want to be a rock star!

Professional athlete, celebrity, and millionaire are all common goals many youths aspire to (or “yoots” as Joe Pesci calls them in My Cousin Vinny).

Almaden -- duane

Duane Poliquin

Based on their biographies, I’d guess all Duane and Morgan Poliquin wanted to do was find Gold, and LOTS of it. This father-son Gold hunting team has a long track record of discovery. Starting with Santa Fe in the 1970′s, Duane the dad (pictured left) and son Morgan have gone on to find Nevada Sheelite, Trinidad Gold mine, Caballo Blanco deposit, and the Ixtaca Gold-Silver deposit.

Anyone wishing to win alongside them can play via Almaden Minerals (AMM, TSX) and Almadex Minerals (AMZ- TSX-V). Insiders, including Duane and Morgan, own approximately 15% of each.

$30 per-ounce for this large advanced stage Gold project?…

…for that price I’m a buyer.

Almaden Minerals owns 100% of the Ixtaca Gold-Silver deposit. Nestled within the 14,000 hectare “Tuligtic” Property, Ixtaca is located in Puebla, Mexico. Paved roads are within 2 km of Ixtaca and there is power on site. The Pachuca mine, one of the largest Gold and Silver deposits in Mexico with historic production of 1.4 billion ounces of Silver and 7 million ounces of Gold, is located 120 km northwest.

In 2010, Almaden drilled its first hole, “TU-1001” in the Ixtaca Zone and intersected 302.4 m of 1.01 g/t Au and 48 g/t Ag. Since then, over 400 holes and 136,000 m have been drilled in the area. The Ixtaca Gold-Silver deposit currently hosts an NI-43101 Measured and Indicated resource of approximately 93 million tonnes grading 0.55 g/t Au and 32 g/t Ag, for a total of 1.65 million ounces of Gold and 96.7 million ounces of Silver.

Speaking in terms of Gold equivalent, Almaden uses a 2 g/t AuEq cut-off grade and has 3.5 million Gold ounces.

Almaden - regional

As the image above indicates, Almaden has numerous regional targets in the Ixtaca area.  In the months to come it will drill 3 zones – one northeast (Ixtaca East), one immediately south (SE Clay), and another 2 km southwest (Tano Zone) along strike of Ixtaca’s resource area.

According to Almaden’s June 13 news release:  “Advanced engineering and environmental baseline studies designed to meet the requirements of a Pre-Feasibility Study (‘PFS’) and the submittal of an environmental permit application and risk assessment to the Mexican regulatory agency responsible for mine permitting are ongoing.”

7,000 tpd Rock Creek mill…

On October 19, 2015, Almaden secured the option to purchase the Rock Creek mill, which only operated for several months before the mining operation was curtailed in 2008. The mill was built to process 7,000 tonnes per day and is in excellent condition. The downward chart below is a thing of beauty. Almaden has reduced capital expenditures at Ixtaca to such an extent it will likely become a mine (defying the 1-in-10,000 odds).

Almaden -- costs down

Almaden -- morgan

Morgan Poliquin

Almaden’s updated PEA, filed with SEDAR on April 13, 2016, estimates pre-production costs of $100 million (U.S.).  Ixtaca shows a solid 30% IRR (after tax) and a $166 million (U.S.) NPV (5% discount rate) using $1,150 Gold and $16 Silver. Over an estimated 13-year mine life, annual production would be 55,660 ounces Gold and 3,754,000 ounces Silver. Assuming a production decision is made, all-in sustaining costs at Ixtaca are expected to be $796 per ounce AuEq.

Assuming the PEA assumptions remain and precious metal prices stay as they are now, Almaden would generate more than $45 million operating cash flow (ie: 100,000 ounces Gold at $796 AISC) annually. Comparing this hypothetical 100,000 ounce Gold producer to recent acquisitions in the sector, it would imply Almaden would eventually be worth around $300 million.

As of the last financial update (post-financing), Almaden had about $8.5 million (CDN) in cash and no debt. Its share structure is solid with only 81.3 million outstanding.  Market cap is now $165 million (CDN) after today’s close of $2.03 with the stock up more than 50 cents over the last 5 trading sessions.

Prefer a levered bet on the Poliquins?…

Almadex Minerals (AMZ, TSX-V) is a spin-out from Almaden that holds exploration projects and royalties. This strong portfolio of assets is the direct result of over 35 years of prospecting, discovery, and deal-making by Duane and Morgan.

Consisting of a seasoned team of Mexican geologists and drillers, 5 company-owned drills, plus $6.5 million in cash, bullion and marketable securities, Almadex is well-positioned to keep the Poliquin’s winning streak going!

Just 4 weeks ago, Almadex confirmed the presence of porphyry mineralization (intersecting 1.5 m of 109 g/t Au and 0.15% Cu) in at least 4 separate zones at its 7,500 hectare El Cobre Project. Observe the strategic location – just south of the Timmins Gold (TMM, TSX) Caballo Blanco Project.

Almadex - el cobre

Duane Poliquin, AMZ Chairman, commented:  “We have an outstanding portfolio of mineral projects and we are pleased to have commenced drilling on the most advanced, El Cobre. We are exploring a very large zone of alteration hosting several porphyry systems and expect that this round of drilling will better define the systems for future drilling. These first results are from only one of the targets identified and clearly demonstrate the potential of the Encinal target while providing important data for the drilling we are planning based on these results. ”

List of Almadex’ assets (all projects 100%-owned)…

1. West of the Elk Gold mine in Southern British Columbia’s Gold Belt, Almadex has 4 projects across a 42,570 hectare area;

2. Property in Nevada including the Willow Project covering an area of intense hydrothermal alteration interpreted to represent a porphyry “lithocap”, the hydrothermal alteration overlying a large porphyry system with significant Copper, Gold and Molybdenum potential;

3. Almadex considers Mexico as being one of the least developed and most prospective areas for geological exploration in the world. Excellent geology coupled with a welcoming political, economic, and social environment make Mexico a premier country in which to explore and invest (12 projects in Mexico). Los Venados is 1 of 12, in the image below, notice the strategic location – directly east of Agnico Eagle’s (AEM, TSX) La India Mine and just northwest of Alamos Gold’s (AGI, TSX) Mulatos mine.

Almadex -- los venados

4. 15 royalties including a 2% NSR on “Tuligtic” (Almaden’s pre-production project) and a 5% NSR on “Caballo Blanco” (a Timmins Gold project located near a producing mine).

With a current share price of 38 cents, Almadex Minerals’ market cap is $17 million.

Considering its strong portfolio of 20 exploration projects and 15 royalties, I consider AMZ a fabulous buy, right here, right now (frankly, I’m disappointed with myself for not recognizing the inherent value in Almadex months ago). However, when throwing in the Poliquins (people factor) and roughly $6.5 million worth of cash, Gold bullion, and investments – Almadex remains an absolute steal, despite being up more than 130% year-to-date.

*I don’t own any at the moment, but I plan to, and my fingers are crossed AMZ will go down between now and then (although, who in their right mind would be selling?).

About the writer:  Daniel T. Cook, the newest member of the BMR team, is from the great state of Texas.  Daniel has a strong passion for the junior resource sector and has followed the Venture and broader markets with great interest since he bought his first stock 18 years ago at the age of 12.  He’s also a licensed investment professional who was a Bright Future’s Scholar at the University of Central Florida, graduating in 2010 with a major in Finance.  We know our readers will enjoy his material and benefit from his wisdom and insight.  We welcome him aboard!

Comments (3)

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,316 and $1,329 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $13 an ounce at $1,325…Silver has surged 54 cents to $18.29…Copper is flat at $2.18…Crude Oil is $1.10 higher at $48.97 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-quarter of a point to 95.80

Global ETF Gold holdings rose another 5.6 tonnes yesterday, their 4th straight daily inflow. “Their holdings have now been topped up by a good 97 tonnes since the beginning of the month,” Commerzbank says. “After February, June will thus be the month with the 2nd-highest inflows so far this year.”

The level of negative-yielding global debt is continuing its climb into the stratosphere…following the turmoil of the British vote to leave the dysfunctional EU and the desire for the safety of government bonds, the amount has jumped to $11.7 trillion…that’s a 12.5% increase since the end of May, according to a Fitch Ratings report today…

It appears last night’s horrific attack at Turkey’s Atuturk airport, recognized as one of the “safest” airports in the world due to heavy security, was once again the work of radical Islamist terrorists…41 people were killed and more than 200 were injured…Turkey’s Prime Minister said the signs pointed to ISIS as the culprit…this will make President’s Obama’s speech (or Hillary’s campaign speech) to the Canadian Parliament this afternoon more significant than usual (especially on top of last week’s vote in the UK to leave the EU)…Obama will no doubt be granted all the courtesy that the President of Canada’s greatest friend and ally deserves, but 3 things should not be lost on Canadians and the world as Obama delivers his speech – this is a President who truly believes that climate change, not terrorism, is the most serious threat facing the world…this is a President whose failed strategy (he has no strategy) on combatting radical Islamist terrorism has made Canada, the United States and the world much less safe, with the attack on the Canadian Parliament in 2014 and the Orlando massacre just over 2 weeks ago serving as grim North American examples…this is also a President who for the last 8 years in office has paid scant attention to American’s best friend and ally to the north, and has in fact done nothing but demonize the Canadian Oil industry and emboldened those who are against it…this is a President Canadians can have confidence in?…Obama is only back in Canada because he has an ideological clone in the new Prime Minister, a “reflection” of Obama, who agrees with everything Obama says (feeds the President’s ego, or they feed other’s)…

Government Spending In Canada On “Unsustainable Path”

Canada’s total government spending (federal and provincial) is now on an unsustainable path – we should all know that, but it was nice to get confirmation of this fact yesterday from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (an independent watchdog formed by the Conservatives a decade ago)…total government sustainability has swung from net even last year to negative 0.6% of GDP or roughly $11 billion in unsustainable spending annually…Prime Minister Trudeau’s push into deficit financing and reversal of a planned cut to seniors’ benefits are eating up room that balanced out the dour sub-national outlook…

Oil Update

Oil is firming up again as traders poured money back into markets hit by the initial shock of Britain’s vote to leave the EU while a potential Oil workers’ strike in Norway and an ongoing crisis in Venezuela also provided support…producers and refiners are struggling to maintain output in Venezuela due to power outages and equipment shortages, according to traders (as Margaret Thatcher famously said, the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money)…

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) yesterday showed that U.S. Crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week to June 24, far more than the 2.4 million barrels expected by analysts…API’s numbers were confirmed this morning by the U.S. Energy Information Administration which said Crude stockpiles fell by 4.1 million barrels for the week to June 24, the 6th consecutive week of drawdowns…

WTIC 2-Year Weekly Chart

Crude “doubters” could be in a for a shock during the 2nd of the year as WTIC is giving every technical indication that it’s headed higher…the previous resistance band between $42 and $47 is now acting as new support, and the still-rising 50-day SMA is currently $47.33…this is good news for the Venture

It’s reasonable to expect a near-term test of Fib. resistance at $54…if WTIC conquers that level, then $60 will be just around the corner…in the chaotic world we’re now in, further supply disruptions would clearly be bullish for Oil prices and are likely to occur during the 2nd half of the year given the increasingly chaotic world we’re in…another potential catalyst for Crude is a significant drop in the U.S. dollar, another event that could surprise many traders in the coming months…

Crude Oil June 29

In today’s Morning Musings…

1. Two stocks under a nickel catching attention with bullish charts…

2. Two new additions to the BMR Top Opportunities List

3Daniel’s Den “NIRP”…and how it could send Gold to levels once thought impossible…

Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect until June 30 only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings… 

SAVE 25% with a risk-free subscription (as little as $1 per day) as you gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content…

Comments (2)

Uber Is To Taxi Services As “This Company” Is To Doctor Visits

Uber is a modern day taxi service. Its technology immediately matches anyone who needs a ride with anyone willing to drive. The only thing more amazing than Uber is its implied valuation –  $70,000,000,000!

I say $70 billion because Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund recently gave Uber $3.5 billion in exchange for roughly 5% ownership. I say “implied” because Uber is privately held, so a cadre of private investors control the price. On paper, Uber is worth more than 80% of all S&P 500 companies.

Pretty rich for an “app” that hails taxis!

Transportation is important, and so is healthcare, so I ask you: how valuable could the “Uber of Doctor Visits” be, now and in the future?

Click here to read the rest of today’s report, and all BMR exclusive content, by taking advantage of our subscription special in effect for a limited time only, or login with your username and password.

Comments (8)

June 28, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,305 and $1,321 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $9 an ounce at $1,315 as it digests the nearly $70 total advance Friday and yesterday, and also grapples with Fib. resistance at $1,320…Silver is up slightly at $17.79…Copper has surged a nickel to $2.18…Crude Oil has jumped $1.02 a barrel to $47.35 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-fifth of a point to 96.23

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust climbed another 13 tonnes yesterday to 947.38 tonnes, the highest in 3 years…

Societe General’s head of metals research, Robin Bhar, told Kitco News yesterday that the firm is now calling for Gold to move much higher from current levels. “We expect prices to rise to $1,400 per ounce, with follow-through strength extending to the rest of the precious metal sector.  The heightened market uncertainty will prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets, benefiting Gold and the rest of the precious metals. While, arguably, some of this uncertainty has already been priced in, there is likely much more to come.”

The UK has been stripped of its last AAA rating as credit agency Standard & Poor’s warned of the economic, fiscal and constitutional risks the country now faces as a result of the EU referendum result…the 2-notch downgrade came with a warning that S&P could slash its rating again…it described the result of the vote as “a seminal event” that would “lead to a less predictable stable and effective policy framework in the UK”…the agency added that the vote to remain in Scotland and Northern Ireland “creates wider constitutional issues for the country as a whole”

According to former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and many others including CNBC’s Cramer who was ranting about this yesterday, the British vote to leave the EU is the “worst political misstep in Europe since World War II

What makes the EU such a wonderful institution?…Margaret Thatcher said this type of arrangement would never ultimately succeed, and she was right…

While there’s certainly going to be period of adjustment for the UK as it works out its “Brexit” from the EU, there will also be incredible opportunities for Great Britain as it enjoys greater policy freedom with full sovereignty as opposed to being suffocated by over zealous unelected bureaucrats in Brussels who have stifled growth and innovation in the euro zone through rampant over-regulation…Great Britain survived the onslaught of German bombings in World War II, and thrived in the decades that followed, so they will overcome any short-term pain that may result from exiting what is really a very flawed EU system…

CRB Index Update

This fresh 2-year weekly chart for the CRB Index points to a commodities market that remains extremely healthy…while Crude Oil experienced a knee-jerk minor sell-off following the UK vote to leave the EU, the fact the Venture has held support around 700 is another clue that the uptrend in commodities will continue into Q3

Despite its 20% advance already this year, the CRB is far from being in any kind of a technically “overbought” state…a rising 50-day moving average (SMA) and Fib. support, both at 187, underpin the index while RSI(14) at 56% has plenty of room to push higher as it continues its uptrend…

The 200 and 230 levels on the CRB are both reasonable targets for the 2nd half of the year, and that should be sweet music to the ears of Venture investors…

CRB June 29

In today’s Morning Musings…

1. The battle begins for Dolly Varden Silver (DV, TSX-V)…

2. Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) has a high-grade Gold trail to follow next to Colorado’s KSP Property in the Heart of Gold Camp…

3. Updated charts for CXO, RIC and BAR

4Deveron UAS gets some media attention in advance of CSE listing and trading…

5. The most important Dow chart you’ve seen this year – what you need to know

Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect until June 30 only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings… 

SAVE 25% with a risk-free subscription (as little as $1 per day) as you gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content…

Comments (19)

June 27, 2016

Kootenay Silver: A Cut Above The Rest

If you’re a big believer in Silver, as we are at BullMarketRun.com, there’s one company you must familiarize with and that’s Kootenay Silver (KTN, TSX-V) which executed flawlessly at the bottom of the market cycle at the beginning of this year to secure a leading position in the Mexican Silver sector.  Its market cap has soared more than 300% since the end of December – probably just the start of what’s ahead for a company with rapidly growing resources that has attracted the keen interest of 3 producers.

KTN is part of the BMR Top 50 Opportunities List which has posted a staggering 221% annualized return. 

In this feature piece, we examine the “4 Factors” that position KTN as a prolific junior “growth” stock – then find out how you can leverage this opportunity in a unique way:

1. Silver – Early Stages Of A Powerful New Bull Market

2. The Proven Blueprint

3. Endorsed By The Architect

4. Harnessing The Power Of High-Quality Properties

[1] Banking On Silver, A Metal Our World Can’t Live Without

According to “Silver Institute.org”, there has been a physical supply deficit in the metal in 4 of the last 5 years. Between 2011 and 2015, mined production averaged 825.4 million ounces per year versus 1.1 million ounces of physical demand. Defying the economic laws of “supply and demand”, Silver declined in price each of those years – an unsustainable trend.

When commodities (corn, wheat, Oil, etc.) sell near or below production costs for too long, eventually some of that production gets curtailed significantly.  Essentially, the cure for low prices is low prices. Demand remains and supply slows or shrinks, leaving only one direction for prices to go – northbound.

Given that Silver production is largely a byproduct of Copper, Gold, Lead and Zinc, BMR sees a perfect storm gathering on the horizon. The growth in overall global Silver mine production has been slowing, thanks to a combination of low Silver prices and less industrial metal production due to weaker global growth, while overall demand keeps increasing thanks in part to physical investment.

One would be wise not to forget that Silver has been used as “money” and a “disinfectant” for thousands of years. Hospitals use Silver-coated filters to purify water. It’s also the best known reflector of visible light. Every solar panel worldwide uses up to 20 grams of Silver!  In addition, thanks to its electrical conductive properties, Silver has widespread usages in fast-growing areas like computer circuit boards and nanotechnology wires – to name just a few demand drivers going forward.

Since its founding in 2006, Kootenay Silver has worked smartly and aggressively to amass over a Silver resource of 144 million ounces.  The company’s strategic land positions in the most prolific regions of Mexico all but ensures its bankable Silver ounces will grow rapidly over the next couple of years and beyond.

[2] Kootenay Silver Is Executing On A Proven Blueprint

Mr. Ross Beaty, a geologist and lawyer, founded Pan American Silver (PAA, TSX) in 1994 with the aim of giving investors leveraged exposure to higher Silver prices. Via acquisition and good old-fashioned exploration, he and his team methodically accumulated quality Silver projects while metal prices were low. As Silver appreciated through the 2000‘s, Pan American’s stock went with it, except more dramatically – gaining over 1000% from low to high.

Jim McDonald

Kootenay President & CEO Jim McDonald.

Led by CEO James McDonald, the Kootenay of today resembles Pan American back then. Via acquisition and good old-fashioned exploration, KTN’s current property portfolio is highlighted by Promontorio, La Negra and La Cigarra, and some very promising earlier stage opportunities.

The “timing” component of this plan cannot be understated.  For it to work, acquirers cannot overpay for assets. Kootenay paid just 21 cents for each ounce of known Silver in the ground when it acquired Northair Silver earlier this year at the bottom of the market cycle.  This compares favorably to Kootenay’s per-ounce “discovery cost”, roughly 4550 cents (a respectable number in its own right).

Kootenay’s timing was impeccable as far as the Northair acquisition was concerned.   Therefore, the price was right.

McDonald has plenty of experience in the industry and has been able to recruit impressive “bench strength” at Kootenay.  He co-founded and successfully developed National Gold, a company that later merged with Alamos Minerals to form Alamos Gold for which he was a director and served on numerous committees until 2012.

[3] Endorsed By The Architect

Kootenay is executing on a proven blueprint endorsed by Beaty (net worth >100 million) and Pan American Silver (market value +$3 billion CDN)!

How’s that for evidence?

Each is a large KTN shareholder, mine development partner, or both. Prospective investors and current shareholders should be emboldened by that fact. Recognize the end of the bear market for what it is – a tremendous opportunity to buy low and accumulate a stock that could skyrocket in the good times ahead.

Look at Kootenay’s share structure: management, directors, friends/family, Agnico Eagle, Couer Mining, Pan American Silver and Ross Beaty collectively own over 35%.

Kootenay -- structure

…you are the company you keep.

[4] Property Power = $

As per the agreement February 16, Pan American will invest $8 million (U.S.) into the Promontorio mineral belt properties. Additionally, it will make cash payments to Kootenay totaling $8 million (U.S.) over a 4-year period.

Here’s what Pan American’s CEO Michael Steinmann had to say about the deal:

Kootenay has done an excellent job exploring their large land package in the Promontorio mineral belt, located just 190 km NW of our Alamo Dorado mine.  La Negra is an exciting, high-grade, potentially open pitable deposit, and Promontorio is a large, lower grade Silver resource, which will likely require higher metal prices or better grades to move forward. Kootenay has already defined mineral resources at Promontorio and both deposits retain excellent exploration potential.   This is an ideal entry point for Pan American into a highly prospective mineral belt located in a preferred jurisdiction, which will allow us to add value by utilizing our proven expertise in exploration and project development.”

As he indicated, La Negra is a robust deposit ideally suited for open-pit mining.  In his statement the Pan American CEO also reminded investors that La Negra, in effect, could become the next Alamo Dorado which is nearing the end of its mine life.

Kootenay -- Promontorio

Pan American is ultimately going to need ore from La Negra to replace Alamo Dorado.  And there are some interesting parallels between the two that Pan American should find helpful.  Alamo Dorado’s dominant Silver minerals are reportedly AgCl (chlorargyrite) and AgS (acanthite) – the same minerals are seen at La Negra, indicating potential for leach extraction.

The depth extent at La Negra could also be tremendous.  Lending credibility to depth potential, drill hole LN-21 intersected 156 g/t Ag over 200 m with the bottom 50 m grading 420 g/t including 6 meters of 1,337 g/t.  Kootenay has found higher grades on the way down, a high-class problem to have.

There could be a Gold system just a few km from the La Negra deposit, as well.  Regional exploration carried out by Kootenay has identified a belt of highly anomalous Gold, Copper and Silver mineralization over a 4+ km area with impressive alteration, coined the Cameron-Vania Trend.  So new discoveries could easily enter the picture – another compelling reason Pan American entered into a deal with KTN.

La Negra

Kootenay Catalysts For 2nd Half Of 2016 

What catalysts could move KTN higher in the months ahead?

Pan American will be drilling at both La Negra and the surrounding Promontorio mineral belt.   As part of its option agreement for Year 1, Pan American is obligated to spend at least $1 million (U.S.) at La Negra and at least $2 million (U.S.) on other exploration and development targets in the Promontorio mineral belt other than La Negra and Promontorio.

In addition, Kootenay has a 3,000 m targeted drill program planned for Q3 at its 100%-owned La Cigarra Project.   La Cigarra is located in the prolific “Parral” district in Chihuahua State, Mexico. Silver has been mined successfully in Parral for more than 400 years.  In another coup for Kootenay, the company acquired Coeur Mining’s (CDE, NYSE) 2.5% NSR on future production at La Cigarra (through subsidiary Coeur Capital) in exchange for $500,000 U.S. cash and 9.6 million KTN shares

Kootenay -- La Cigarra

Kootenay’s McDonald stated to BMR, We are literally just scratching the surface at La Cigarra.” 

Click on the arrow below to hear more from McDonald regarding the potential of La Cigarra:

Between drilling at and around La Negra and at La Cigarra, Kootenay will have no shortage of news to report back to investors. As it moves into 2017 and 2018, the company will also have a clearer line of sight toward cash flow.

Technically, Speaking – What A Chart!

Kootenay has recently backed off from Fib. resistance at 50 cents to support at the top of a long-term downtrend line and previous Fib. resistance (new support) at 38 cents, so now is an ideal time for accumulation.  The trend remains solidly bullish with the rising 50-day moving average (SMA) currently at 42 cents.  There’s every reason to believe KTN will continue to advance toward the measured Fib. resistance indicated on this 3-year weekly chart.

KTN’s bullish technical posture and its powerful fundamentals point to an exciting 2nd half of 2016!

Warrant power – Learn more

KTN June 28 Chart

About the writer:  Daniel T. Cook, the newest member of the BMR team, is from the great state of Texas.  Daniel has a strong passion for the junior resource sector and has followed the Venture and broader markets with great interest since he bought his first stock 18 years ago at the age of 12.  He’s also a licensed investment professional who was a Bright Future’s Scholar at the University of Central Florida, graduating in 2010 with a major in Finance.  We know our readers will enjoy his material and benefit from his wisdom and insight.  We welcome him aboard!

KTN And The Power Of Leverage!

Learn more re: KTN:  Maximizing Your Leverage And A Company’s Growing Resources

Note:  Dan and John do not hold share positions in KTN.  Jon does hold a share position in KTN.

Disclaimer:
BullMarketRun.com (BMR) is reader-funded as a subscriber service and completely independent from any companies it covers.  We accept no advertising either.  No compensation was paid by Kootenay Silver for the above article or its distribution.  Our stock coverage is for informational and entertainment purposes only and must not be viewed or interpreted as “buy”, “sell” or “hold” recommendations. No investment opinion or other advice is being rendered on any stock or company. We strongly recommend that you consult with a qualified investment adviser, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research before making any investment decisions. The stocks we cover, by definition, are highly speculative and potentially very volatile. Investors are cautioned that they may lose all or a portion of their investment if they make a purchase or short sale in these speculative stocks. We are not Registered Securities Advisers. Our opinions can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Adviser operating in accordance with the appropriate regulation in your area of jurisdiction. It should be assumed that BMR personnel, writers and their associates may hold or dispose of or trade in positions in any securities mentioned herein at any time. Owner/Publisher of BullMarketRun.com is Terry Dyer of Langley, British Columbia.        

Forward Looking Statements:
All statements in BMR’s reports, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or future performance. Forward-looking statements are often but not always identified by the use of words such a “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “targeting”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions.

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Top Opportunities Update Plus 33 New Additions

The resource section of the BMR Top 50 Opportunities List unveiled in early December 2015 is up a staggering 154% in just over 6-and-a-half months (276% annualized return) with 56% of the 39 picks posting triple-digit percentage gains. 

This compares to a 38% advance for the Venture and a 21% climb in Gold during the same period.  The TSX is up 4% since then, the Dow is off slightly while the NASDAQ has fallen 8%.

Individual category performances (comprising 50 stocks) are as follows:

PRODUCERS:  Up 113%

NEAR-PRODUCERS:  Up 172%

EXPLORERS:  Up 141%

EXPLORER SLEEPERS UNDER A NICKEL:  Up 273%

NON-RESOURCE:  Up 12%

In today’s report is an updated performance review of each category through June 24, and comments on individual companies for our subscribers.  In total, 39 or 78% of the 50 picks have increased in value over the last 6.5+ months, 8 are down and 3 are unchanged.  The average return so far for all 50 companies is an impressive 123% or 221% on an annualized basis.  Pure Gold Mining (PGM, TSX-V) tops the list with a gain of 576% followed by Kiska Metals (KSK, TSX-V) at 500%, Cordoba Minerals (CDB, TSX-V) at 377% and Lithium X Energy (LIX, TSX-V) at 325%.

Not included in the above statistics are the 33 recent additions (NEW ADDITIONS), companies that have been added at various times since late February – more than half of them since the beginning of May.  Combined, this group is already up more than 40% with Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) setting the pace with a gain of 223%.  Two other stocks in the Golden Triangle’s Heart of Gold Camp have posted returns of 100% or better over a short period – SnipGold (now taken over by Seabridge Gold) at 146% and Aben Resources (ABN, TSX-V) at 100%, while Tudor Gold (TUD, TSX-V), up 87%, has been a stellar performer since it started trading in mid-May. Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V), with a rapidly growing position in the Camp, is under accumulation and showing signs of a potential near-term breakout.

Decade Resources (DEC, TSX-V), also active in the Golden Triangle, and Savary Gold (SCA, TSX-V), drilling in southwestern Burkina Faso, are each up 130%.

Athabasca Nuclear is now Clean Commodities (CLE, TSX-V), building a powerful Canadian clean commodity brand that includes an impressive package of recent Lithium acquisitions.

1 Thirteen (13) quality Lithium plays…

2 Ten (10) companies in the Golden Triangle’s prolific Heart of Gold Camp where history could be made this summer…

3.  Why this technology play in our non-resource category could turn into a huge winner on the CSE as it gets set to begin trading…

click here and take advantage of our special limited time offer to gain immediate full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features, or login with your username and password…

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