Gold has traded between $1,353 and $1,368 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $7 an ounce at $1,356…Silver has retreated 18 cents to $20.38…Copper is off slightly at $2.21…Crude Oil has rallied $1.37 a barrel to $40.88 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added one-quarter of a point to 95.40…
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust rose again yesterday, by 0.6% to 969.97 tonnes…
Gold Sector M&E Spree
Completed and pending Gold sector deals totaled almost $9 billion in the first half of 2016…this includes Newmont’s (NEM, NYSE) $1.3 billion sale of Indonesian Copper and Gold assets to a local consortium June 30 and Centerra Gold’s (CG, TSX) $1.1 billion purchase of Thompson Creek Metals (TCM, TSX) several days later…while the metal is up about 25% this year, the value of mergers and acquisitions has soared…
An important figure for investors – the average paid in 133 transactions in the 3 months to June was $64 an ounce of Gold equivalent in the ground, up from $36 in the first quarter of 2016, as buyers factor in better long-term price expectations, according to Bloomberg Intelligence…
Mixed U.S. Private Jobs Report Ahead of Friday’s Labor Department Report
The headline number for U.S. private job growth was slightly better than expected in July BUT all of the new positions came from the services sector, according to the latest report this morning from ADP and Moody’s Analytics…companies added 179,000 positions for the month, topping Reuters’ estimates of 170,000…that was a slight increase from June which saw an upwardly revised 176,000, 4,000 more than originally reported…the bad news was that job growth was unbalanced…services added 185,000 positions, but the goods-producing sector actually lost 6,000 workers…construction posted a loss that matched that 6,000 number, while manufacturing added 4,000 which actually was a turnaround from June when the sector lost 15,000…
Friday’s closely watched non-farm payrolls report is expected to show the economy added 175,000 jobs, down from June’s initially reported 287,000 (how much of a revision will we see to that number?)…
Gold could very easily move higher Friday no matter what the Labor Department reports as bullion investors appear to have put the Fed on “ignore”…
Venture-Commodities Comparative – January Through July
Silver has doubled Gold’s performance so far this year with a gain of nearly 50% vs. Gold’s rise of 24.3%…but the Venture tops them all with a 56.5% climb, a typical pattern in the early stages of a commodities’ bull market…
Crude Oil posted a respectable 20% gain while Copper edged up nearly 10% (other metals faired even better)…
The Venture is a highly reliable leading indicator – commodities should be significantly higher 6 months and a year from now, for reasons that may not be entirely clear to most investors at the moment…
Crude Oil Update
Very oversold conditions have emerged in WTIC but more downward pressure is certainly possible (within the support band between $39.50 and $36.50) before a sustained turnaround kicks in…rising supplies, particularly from Libya, as well as high Crude and refined product inventories along with an uncertain demand outlook are weighing on prices at the moment…weak short-term technicals have been a factor recently as well…
RSI(14) yesterday fell to its lowest level since early this year when a great buying opportunity emerged in Crude…in the coming days we’ll show how patient investors can profit handsomely from this current weakness in Oil as we see a very different price environment emerging later this year and into 2017…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. Part 2 of an interview with Colorado Resources‘ President & CEO Adam Travis…
2. Nemaska, Critical Elements and Clean Commodites all have something in common – which means CLE is a steal at a dime…
3. Daniel’s Den – the “wearable transition!” investors can make a fortune on…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings, and all BMR exclusive content, or login with your username and password.
Gold has traded between $1,348 and $1,368 so far today…as of 7:45 am Pacific, bullion is up $12 an ounce at $1,365…Silver is 21 cents higher at $20.61…Copper is up 3 cents to $2.23…Crude Oil, which briefly fell below $40 yesterday for the first time since April, has regained 42 cents to $40.48 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down another half point to 95.19…
Gold ETF investors are remaining loyal…yesterday marked the highest daily global inflow in 3 weeks (8.4 tons) and the 4th consecutive daily inflow…holdings of the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, rose 5.9 tonnes yesterday in the biggest 1-day jump since late June…
The amount of Gold ETF buying rose again in July, although not as dramatically as in June and other months this year, according to Commerzbank. “Stock levels increased by a good 55 tonnes overall in July, compared to almost 110 tonnes in June. Since the beginning of the year, (global) inflows have reached 546 tonnes.”
How pathetic – Fed officials are at it again, talking up the possibility of a rate hike…William Dudley, President of the New York Fed, said yesterday that the market shouldn’t be ruling out the possibility that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again this year. “Market expectations, to my eye, derived from federal funds futures prices, which price in no more than one 25 basis-point rate hike through the end of 2017, appear to be too complacent,” he told a conference of central bankers and financial regulators on the Indonesian island of Bali…
Dudley said he expected the U.S. economy to grow around 2% annualized over the next 18 months, boosted by improved consumption. “If the upcoming information validates my view of the outlook, then U.S. monetary policy will need to move at a faster pace than implied by futures prices to a more neutral posture as the labor market tightens further and U.S. inflation rises,” Dudley said…
Fed funds futures rates yesterday suggested a 37% probability that the U.S. central bank will hike rates at its December meeting, down from about 48% a couple of weeks earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch…
One More Reason Gold Will Continue Its Climb
Governments and central banks around the world have gone insane…
As the Wall Street Journal reports, the total amount of global government bonds that bear negative yields – meaning it costs you to have the government hold your money – has now climbed to a massive $13 trillion…
A picture tells a thousand words – look at the trend…
Desperate Japanese Government Hands Out Cash As Government Bonds Fall The Most In 3 Years
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet approved 13.5 trillion yen ($132 billion U.S.) in fiscal measures today as part of efforts to revive the flagging economy, with cash payouts ($150 to 22 million low-income earners) and infrastructure spending…the headline figure for the package totals 28.1 trillion yen, but that includes public-private partnerships and other amounts that are not direct government outlays…the so-called stimulus spending is part of a renewed government effort to coordinate its policy with the Bank of Japan, but growing concerns that the BOJ policy has reached its limit has triggered the worst sell-off in government bonds in 3 years…
The government claims that its measures in this package, which will be implemented over several years, will push up real GDP by around 1.3% in the near-term…however, SMBC Nikko Securities’ analysts expect the impact on growth will be much less – just 0.4 percentage points this fiscal year to March 2017 and less than half a percentage point in 2018…
Japan already has a massive debt (229% of GDP in 2015) – it’s only a matter of time before it hits the fiscal “cliff”…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. Venture trades above 800 for first time in 22 months – astounding long-term chart shows where this market is headed…
2. Heart of Gold Camp update including fresh interview with Colorado’s Adam Travis as CXO hits new high…
3. Silver’s key level to watch…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings, and all BMR exclusive content, by taking advantage of our Subscription Special ending tonight, or login with your username and password.
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Gold Seasonality Chart Plus Gold In Canadian Dollars
There are no 2 months (combined) on the calendar that have proven to be better for Gold than August and September.
Two-thirds of the time over the last 15 years, Gold has jumped in value in both August and September for a combined return of 4.3% – better than even January and February (3.7%) which are also traditionally strong months.
Below is the seasonality chart for Gold going back to 1997.
It’s hard to imagine, therefore, that we won’t see bullion cross the $1,400 (U.S.) barrier in the near future – possibly $1,500 this quarter given the metal’s current momentum and the Venture’s continuing bullish technical posture.
Gold In Loonie Terms
This could get dramatic!
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August 1, 2016
The resource section of the BMR Top 50 Opportunities List unveiled in early December 2015 is up a staggering 183% in just under 8 months (279% annualized return) with 60% of the 39 picks posting triple-digit percentage gains.
This compares to a 54% advance for the Venture and a 24% climb in Gold during the same period. The TSX is up 9.2% since then, the Dow has advanced 3.1% while the NASDAQ is up less than 1%.
Individual category performances (comprising 50 stocks) are as follows:
PRODUCERS: Up 141%
NEAR-PRODUCERS: Up 203%
EXPLORERS: Up 160%
EXPLORER SLEEPERS UNDER A NICKEL: Up 347%
NON-RESOURCE: Up 43%
In today’s report is an updated performance review of each category through July 29, and comments on individual companies for our subscribers.
In total, 41 or 82% of the 50 picks have increased in value while 9 are down over the last 8 months. The average return so far for all 50 companies is an impressive 152% or 232% on an annualized basis.
Kiska Metals (KSK, TSX-V) tops the list with a gain of 633% followed by Pure Gold (PGM, TSX-V) at 576%, Cordoba Minerals (CDB, TSX-V) at 531%, Brazil Resources (BRI, TSX-V) at 452% and Lithium X Energy (LIX, TSX-V) at 406%.
Not included in the above statistics are the 41 recent additions (New Additions), companies that have been added at various times since late February – most of them since the beginning of May. Combined, this group is already up nearly 60% with Heart of Gold Camp leader Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) setting the pace with a gain of 354%.
Three other stocks in the Golden Triangle’s Heart of Gold Camp have posted returns in excess of 100% over a short period. One of them is Aben Resources (ABN, TSX-V) which has surged 214%. It has momentum and less than 20 million shares outstanding for a market cap of just over $3 million. Tudor Gold (TUD, TSX-V) has shot up 125% since it started trading just 2-and-a-half months ago while SnipGold (now part of Seabridge Gold) has also jumped 125%.
BMR recently correctly predicted potential takeovers of both Dolly Varden Silver (DV, TSX-V) and Homestake Resource (HSR, TSX-V), up 264% and 104%, respectively, since we broke the story June 7 (click here) about Hecla Mining (HL, NYSE) purchasing 600 sq. km of claims in the Kitsault district (80 km SE of Heart of Gold Camp) near DV and HSR from a private group. Homestake is being acquired by Auryn Resources (AUG, TSX-V) while Dolly Varden has raised $7 million to fend off a hostile takeover bid (at least for now) by Hecla.
Athabasca Nuclear is now Clean Commodities (CLE, TSX-V), building a powerful Canadian clean commodity brand that includes an impressive package of recent Lithium property acquisitions as well as strategic PGE, Uranium and Diamond properties.
The BMR Non-Resource category is picking up steam, led recently by technology play Deveron UAS (DVR, CSE) and medical marijuana play Aphria (APH, TSX-V). Deveron is up 150% since it resumed trading July 19 and should make further noise in August as Canada’s only publicly traded company with a service-based drone business focused on the agriculture sector.
1. Stocks with momentum entering August – Top 10 Gainers the last 2 weeks…
2. Fresh breakout in this stock with $18 million in cash, a drill program at one project and a pending NI-43–101 resource estimate at another…
3. The high-grade Silver and Cobalt play under 10 cents that has broken out on record volume…
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