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Gold has traded between $1,316 and $1,329 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion has come under some mild pressure and is down $3 an ounce at $1,317 after a strong rebound in shares of troubled Deutsche Bank…Silver is off its highs but still up 9 cents at $19.19…Copper has added a penny to $2.20…Crude Oil is up 27 cents at $48.10 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 95.54…

UBS remains upbeat on Gold even if the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates yet this year, commenting that the key is “real” rates rather than nominal rates…real rates, of course, refer to the percentage return a saver or investor receives after allowing for inflation…

“In our view, what ultimately matters for Gold are real rather than nominal yields,” UBS says. “Inflation, inflation expectations and the market’s perception on whether the Fed is behind or ahead of the curve therefore need to be taken into account. While we expect the Fed to hike rates in December, we continue to think U.S. long-end real yields have room to fall further, supporting our positive Gold view.”

Economic Data Disappoints

U.S. consumer spending in August turned in the weakest performance in 5 months, reflecting a drop in spending on autos…income growth also slowed in August as wages and salary gains were smaller following 4 strong months…the Commerce Department said this morning that consumer spending was unchanged last month after solid gains of 0.4% in July and 0.3% in June…it was the poorest showing since a flat reading in March…meanwhile, personal incomes rose just 0.2% last month, just half the gain in July…that was the weakest income performance since a 0.1% drop in February…wages and salaries, the biggest income category, were up just 0.1% after 2 months of 0.5% increases…ideal conditions for a Fed hike?…not exactly…

Oil Update

It’s hard not to be bullish about Oil when the Saudis decide it’s time to put the brakes on some production in order to support prices, while the chart shows a classic bullish inverted head-and-shoulders pattern…

High quality Oil stocks are one way to play a potential 50% jump in Oil prices over the next 12 months (after a breakout above the neckline on this chart, Crude could easily find its way into the $70’s)…

Over the past year, our ETF recommended trades have been 100% accurate and it will soon be time to get positioned again in the HOU…stay tuned for that…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1. One of the best-financed Oil stocks on the planet that should be in everyone’s portfolio as it nears a breakout…

2. Cannabix Technologies (BLO, CSE) enjoys another powerful Friday and hits a new 5-month high…

3. Daniel’s Den – Orca Gold (ORG, TSX-V) is about to market itself much more aggressively…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

Gold has traded between $1,316 and $1,326 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is unchanged at $1,322…Silver is off a nickel at $19.12…Copper is up slightly at $2.18…Crude Oil has added another $1 a barrel to $48.09 after yesterday’s 5% move on OPEC deal-making, while the U.S. Dollar Index is relatively flat at 95.45…

The third and final read on 2nd quarter U.S. GDP showed the economy grew slightly faster than previously estimated…the Commerce Department this morning said GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2…meanwhile, pending home sales fell 2.4% in August, marking the 3rd straight monthly decline according to the National Association of Realtors…

Division among Federal Reserve policymakers on when to raise U.S. interest rates seems to have sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by officials from the central bank…

Barclays Plc today:  Commodities will probably see a broad-based recovery next year after what’s expected to be an unusually strong performance in the final quarter as demand improves, investors plow funds into raw materials and the dollar shows signs of weakness…

The Bloomberg Commodities Index has dropped in the 4th quarter for 4 straight years…

Oil Update – An OPEC Agreement To Consider An Agreeement

OPEC’s surprise production cut proposal yesterday prompted the largest daily gains in Crude prices since April, and the rally has continued today…major questions remain including whether the cartel’s members would stand by an agreement and whether the cuts would be enough to dent a market still brimming with surplus Crude…the Saudis, however, do appear to be throwing in the towel on a strategy they undertook in late 2014 to drive prices lower, put the squeeze on competitors and increase their own market share in the process…

How much each country will produce is to be decided at the next formal OPEC meeting in November, when an invitation to join cuts could also be extended to non-OPEC countries such as Russia…it is not clear when the agreement would come into effect, how compliance with the agreement will be verified, what new individual quotas for countries would be and how long the deal would remain in force…

The group agreed on a preliminary proposal in Algeria yesterday to cut its collective output to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels a day, down from the levels of 33.2 million barrels a day in August, national Oil ministers said…

It’s notable, however, that Iran, Libya and Nigeria will request exemptions until reaching certain levels of production…the problem of surpluses will not be solved if these 3 countries were to take full advantage of their capacities…

Goldman Sachs said the OPEC deal could add $7 to $10 to Oil prices in the first half of next year…

The Venture says Oil started a new bull market earlier this year…

Gold-Silver Producers’ All-In-Sustaining Costs (AISC) Continue To Decline 

One Canadian bank sees a perfect storm of profits for Gold and Silver miners as precious metals prices increase and costs continue to fall…

In a recent report, analysts at CIBC World Markets described 2016 as a “transformative year” as more than 50% of the bank’s Gold and all of its Silver stocks are expected to see a reduction in AISC compared to 2015…the reduction in costs comes as Gold has seen its price rise this year by more than 25% while Silver has surged almost 40%…

In its report, the bank is forecasts average AISC for Gold producers under its coverage of around $899 an ounce, down from the 2015 average costs of $907…the bank sees an average profit margin of $364 an ounce, up from $243 an ounce seen in 2015…

According to the analysts, the mining companies that will see the best margins in the current environment are: Alamos (AGI, TSX), Acacia (ACA, LSE), Centerra (CG, TSX), Barrick (ABX, TSX), B2Gold (BTO, TSX) and New Gold (NGD, TSX)…

Kirkland Lake Gold (KLG, TSX) And Newmarket Gold (NMI, TSX) Merge

A major merger in the Gold sector announced this morning – Kirkland Lake Gold (KLG, TSX) and Newmarket Gold (NMI, TSX) have struck an agreement to join forces, creating a mid-tier Gold company with a market cap in excess of $2 billion and producing over 500,000 ounces per year…existing Kirkland Lake and Newmarket shareholders will own approximately 57% and 43% of the combined company, respectively, on a fully-diluted in-the-money basis…

The combination of Macassa and Fosterville will form the production backbone of a new mid-tier, high quality Gold producer with low cost production and strong free cash flow generation…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1. Gainey Capital (GNC, TSX-V) – contrarian time!…

2. Two diversified attractive producers added to our “Buy List”…

3. Eric Sprott jumps in on Nova Scotia Gold revival (bullish for OX, TSX-V)…

4. Pure Gold (PGM, TSX-V) extends drill program by 26,000 m at Madsen…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

Gold has traded between $1,317 and $1,328 so far today…as of 8:50 am Pacific, bullion is off $7 an ounce at $1,320…Silver is down 13 cents at $18.98…Copper is up 2 pennies at $2.17…Crude Oil is up slightly at $44.79 while the U.S.Dollar Index has added one-tenth of a point at 95.62…

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold-backed ETF, fell 0.22% to 949.14 tonnes yesterday…holdings are up slightly this month after falling for the first time in several months in August…

Physical Silver volumes have picked up to the highest level for the month as the $19 price point becomes an attractive accumulation level in Asian markets…

Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was the subject of unprecedented criticism by a Presidential candidate (Trump) in Monday night’s Presidential debate, is testifying before the House Financial Services Committee today on supervision and regulation…she will undoubtedly be commenting as well on monetary policy…five other Fed officials (FOMC voting members) are making public appearances today (if they would only just smile and keep their mouths shut, but they won’t)…

OPEC countries won’t reach a deal to curb output during talks this week, but could agree to cut production when they meet at the end of November, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said this morning…more may come later today as the informal meeting wraps up in Algiers…

An explosion at a Coal mine has left at least 18 workers dead, one of China’s larger accidents this year after more than a decade of progress in lowering casualties from mining…

Sugar futures surged today to the highest level in more than 4 years as the market continued to worry about production from Brazil, the world’s largest grower of the commodity…Sugar has drawn strong interest from money managers this year as one of the few commodities with a bullish outlook in terms of the fundamental supply-demand balance…global demand for sugar is expected to outstrip production in back-to-back years, making Sugar the best performing major commodity this year (up more than 50%)…

Nickel On The Rise Amid Government “Shock & Awe” Crackdown On Mining In Philippines

Politics moves markets, so you’d be wise to get to know this man and his team…foreign investors are starting to get a little nervous – over the last month or so, they have been strong net sellers on a daily basis on the Philippine Stock Exchange while the Philippine peso has plunged to a 7-year low…

On June 30, Rodrigo Duterte was elected the new President of the Philippines (he’s “complicated” but refers to himself as a “socialist” and “the first Left President of the Philippines”)…in July, Nickel prices rose 13%, their biggest monthly gain since April 2014…that was no coincidence…after a pullback in August, prices are up significantly again this month, close to July’s 52-week high near $5 a pound…

New Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte.

“We will survive as a nation without you,” Duterte told a media briefing, referring to the country’s miners, shortly after being elected.  “Either you follow strict government standards or you close down.”

Duterte said he can forgo the annual 40 billion Philippine pesos ($852 million U.S.) in government revenue from the mining industry.  “It’s about time to reconfigure the wealth of the nation among its citizens.”

In the weeks before he took office, Duterte warned miners to “shape up” and to “stop spoiling the land“…immediately after winning the Presidency, he appointed radical anti-mining advocate Gina Lopez to lead the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)…on her first day on the job, Lopez ordered an audit of all mining companies in the country and within just a few weeks 6 Nickel mines were suspended, representing 8% of total output…

Yesterday, the government provided an update with regard to its audit of the country’s 41 operating metallic mines, and 20 more of them are now in jeopardy.  “So far, we have suspended 10. Eleven passed the audit and 20 need to get their acts together,” Lopez declared…

Keep in mind, the Philippines is the world’s top supplier of Nickel ore, which is used to make stainless steel…the 30 mines under review (the 10 that have been suspended and the 20 that have been told they “need to get their acts together”) accounted for 55% of the 32 million metric tons of Nickel ore the country produced last year, according to Leo Jasareno, undersecretary of the Philippines’ environmental agency…water pollution and other environmental damage were tied to the mines, he said.  “For as long as there is cause and the reason falls within (legal) grounds, the government has the authority to cancel mining contracts,” he told Reuters (just what investors want to hear!)…

Alarmingly, the growing anti-mining sentiment in the Philippines is playing out in several other countries in the region…these include Malaysia, Indonesia and even China…they’ve all initiated crackdowns in the wake of citizen complaints about air and water pollution they link to mining…

Gina Lopez, the anti-mining crusader leading the Philippines’ Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

Lopez may soon become the “Poster Girl” for anti-mining, far-left environmental fanatics in North America…she is a staunch critic of using fossil fuels as energy sources (sound familiar?) and has campaigned vigorously against Coal mining (sound familiar?), advocating instead that eco-tourism be used to boost local economies…

Lopez has been quoted as saying in the past that she is “absolutely against mining” because, in her view, it destroys the environment and deepens poverty levels.  “Mining contributes to massive siltation of our rivers, poisons our waterways and agricultural fields, causing loss of livelihood.”  She believes open-pit mining is “madness”. 

Yesterday she back-tracked slightly but took a shot against Canada in the process:  “I’m not against mining. I’m vehemently against the adverse effect that may happen and are happening. I want us to be better than Canada and Australia.”

Lopez has called the Philippine Mining Act of 1995 “unfair” because it is “skewed towards the mining sector, and not towards our people.” 

She has also said there is no such thing as “responsible mining”.  “If there is responsible mining,” she asked, “why is it that wherever there is mining, there is poverty?  The poorest sites in the country are mining areas,” she claimed…the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines (COMP) correctly countered that, noting “there are no mining operations in the 10 poorest provinces in the country.” 

Certain facts, of course, don’t matter to those who simply hate mining…Lopez shot back at the COMP, stating:  “Some people may twist the truth to serve their own ends, but the fact remains – mining has not helped raise our people from the pits of poverty.”

There’s not ENOUGH mining in the Philippines!

Mining contributes less than 1% to the Philippine economy, with a large chunk of minerals from Gold to Copper and Nickel remaining untapped, according to the country’s Mines and Geosciences Bureau…the industry has powerful opponents in the Philippines, including the influential Catholic Church, following public anger over past environmental disasters and the displacement of local communities…

“The industry is using less than 20,000 hectares out of the 30 million hectares comprising the total land area in the Philippines,” ⁠⁠⁠Dante Bravo, president of Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc., the Philippines’ second-biggest Nickel ore miner, told Reuters.  “And we are contributing so much to the national economy and local development. So, I think we should be treated fairly.”

The Philippines supplied 95% of China’s Nickel ore imports in the first 6 months of 2016, according to Chinese customs data, and while global stocks are high a suspension or closure of more mines could drive refined Nickel prices up further…

“If the Philippines does shut its mining industry, the fact that you’ve got high stocks simply won’t matter, the market will simply skyrocket,” said Wood Mackenzie analyst Andrew Mitchell…

Beginning tomorrow, we’ll take a look at how investors can profit from lower Nickel production in the Philippines…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1. An intriguing new Zinc play that the masses haven’t picked up on yet…

2. What’s up with Gainey Capital (GNC, TSX-V)?…

3.  BLO, CXO updates…

4.  Daniel’s Den – superb TSX Oil junior with exposure Down Under…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

Gold has traded between $1,325 and $1,339 so far today following last night’s first Presidential debate…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $11 an ounce at $1,327…Silver is off 38 cents at $19.04…Copper has slipped 2 pennies to $2.16…Crude Oil is down $1.59 a barrel to $44.34 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added one-tenth of a point to 95.45…

Markets are saying today that the edge went to Hillary Clinton in last night’s first Clinton-Trump showdown, though it was clear that neither candidate delivered a knockout punch…how much those somewhat disappointing 90 minutes may have “moved the needle” with the electorate remains to be seen…next debate is Sunday, October 9…

CMC Markets’ chief market strategist, Michael McCarthy, said traders/investors last night were “searching for the least worse option between the two U.S. candidates.  One is a known market bad, the other an unknown bad. Any ramping up of populist rhetoric would likely rattle investors. Any perception that the outsider candidate won the debate could bring a market rout,” said McCarthy…

Bank of Japan Governor:  “No Limit To Monetary Policy” 

More rhetoric from the Bank of Japan which, like other central banks, has a growing credibility problem which is fundamentally bullish for Gold…BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told business leaders in Osaka yesterday, during a speech on “QQE with Yield Curve Control“, that “there is no limit to monetary policy” and the central bank is prepared to use every policy tool available to achieve a minimum 2% inflation target, including cutting short-term interest rates further into negative territory…

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Spikes

A key measure of U.S. consumers’ attitudes has increased to its highest level since the recession…the Consumer Confidence Index hit 104.1 for September, the Conference Board reported this morning, which was well above expectations for a reading of 99.0…

Oil Update

Crude is under pressure today as optimism fades for an output-limiting deal during an Oil producer meeting in Algeria that so far has failed to yield any agreement to curb one of the worst supply gluts in history…

Goldman Sachs has lowered its Oil price forecast, saying the supply-demand balance for the 4th quarter of 2016 is weaker than it previously expected…

“We are lowering our (Q4) forecast to $43 (per barrel) from $50 previously,” a commodity research team at the bank said in a note published this morning.  “Given upside surprises to (Q3) production and greater clarity on new project delivery into year-end, this leaves us expecting a global surplus of 400,000 (barrels per day) in Q4 versus a 300,000 (barrels per day) draw previously.”

Global Gold Reserves & Resources In-Situ Values

According to a study carried out by SNL Metals and Mining, Africa still has the world’s highest in-situ value for reported reserves and resources at primary Gold projects, with values totaling $1.5 trillion…despite this, it was Latin America that accounted for the largest amount of planned and completed capital spending, with $5.6 billion to be invested in Gold projects announced from the beginning of 2015 through the end of June this year…

Keep in mind that there are multiple limitations to the amount of Gold that will actually become part of the future supply chain based on a calculation of in-situ global reserves and resources…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Venture stock jumps 400% in morning trading on massive volume…

2.  Pure Gold (PGM, TSX-V) drills 127 g/t Au over 3.7 m at Madsen…

3.  GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) releases PFS for Romero…

4.  Nemaska Lithium (NMX, TSX) continues to gain momentum ahead of more news from Whabouchi…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

Gold has traded between $1,333 and $1,343 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $3 an ounce at $1,340…Silver is off 19 cents at $19.49…Copper is down a penny at $2.18…Crude Oil has surged $1.54 a barrel to $46.02 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-tenth of a point to 95.28…

Citi Research, which made some astute calls earlier this year, now predicts that Gold will ease slightly in the 4th quarter to an average of $1,320 an ounce as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for the first time in a year (we see higher Gold prices and no rate hike)…meanwhile, in a special section of the bank’s quarterly commodity forecast released overnight, Citi said Indian demand for Gold and certain other commodities – such as Crude Oil and power – is likely to be helped by rising incomes during the next 5 years…

There is much that can influence the markets this week including speeches from both Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi…

When Donald Meets Hillary

The importance of tonight’s first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton cannot be underestimated…half of America’s likely voters will rely on the presidential debates to help them make their choice between between the two in the November 8 election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this morning…for Trump, tonight is a huge opportunity as he has 90 minutes against Clinton unfiltered by the mainstream media that has helped give Americans high expectations of Clinton for this first debate…8 in 10 voters say they plan to watch tonight’s “event” which could attract a total audience of 100 million American viewers (Super Bowl territory and comparable to television benchmarks like the finales of “MASH” and “Cheers”)…44% expect Clinton to win vs. 34% who expect Trump to come out ahead…Trump, therefore, has an excellent chance to surprise to the upside and win the critical “expectations” game…given his business experience, he also knows how to “close the deal”…

Trump, who has been consistently underestimated since he launched his bid for the Republican nomination, has significantly narrowed the gap with Clinton in recent weeks, according to an average of all the polls, with Clinton beginning to hemorrhage in some key battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania…any perception after tonight that Trump has a strong chance of winning is likely to have an impact on the markets including Gold (up) and the U.S. dollar (down)…

The Rise Of The Renminbi

On October 1, the International Monetary Fund will add China’s renminbi to its elite basket of reserve currencies in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR)…this is “a momentous event” for the international finance community, according to some economists, as it allows the yuan to join the euro, yen, pound and dollar in the A-list basket – an international stamp of approval for the renminbi and a major new step in its growing global credibility…

Oil Update

Oil has firmed up today as the world’s largest producers gathered in Algeria for 3 days of meetings to discuss ways to support the market, with nervous trade driving volatility to its highest since exporters met in April…skepticism about any deal being reached prompted money managers to cut their bullish bets to a 1-month low last week when it appeared Saudi Arabia and Iran were making little progress in achieving a preliminary agreement to freeze production…however, reports over the weekend suggested that the Algerian energy minister said the Saudis had offered an output cut…

Goldman – Coking Coal Rally To Continue

Goldman Sachs has responded to the dramatic coking coal rally by saying higher prices for this year’s best performing commodity may be here to stay…spot hard coking coal has more than doubled this year to trade above $205 a metric ton as a new Chinese government policy reduced the number of annual working days at its mines…Goldman, in a note dated Thursday, raised its 2017 price forecast by 64% to $135 a ton and its 2018 estimate by 47 percent to $125…that compares to the current third-quarter contract price of $92.50…BHP Billiton is the world’s biggest shipper of coking coal, which is combined with iron ore to make steel…China’s output has fallen more than 10% so far this year as President Xi Jinping’s government ordered miners to lower output to the equivalent of 276 days of production, down from 330 days…China’s imports of coking coal jumped 45% in August to the highest in 13 months…Corsa Coal (CSO, TSX-V) has been one of the hot Venture coking coal stocks this month, more than doubling in price…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1.  Two plays under a dime that are headed higher in Q4…

2.  Cannabix Technologies (BLO, CSE) hits a new 2016 high…

3.  Otis Gold (OOO, TSX-V) shows more resource expansion potential at Kilgore…

4.  Silver update – important short-term indicator turns bullish…

5. Daniel’s Den – 5 key trading tips…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

TSX Venture Exchange And Overall Markets

The Venture led most markets to the upside last week, gaining 11 points or 1.5% to finish at 811.  On Friday, even with Gold flat, Oil down sharply and the broader indices under pressure with triple digit losses, the Venture posted a slight gain which is a classic signature of a Venture bull market.

With just 5 trading days left in September, the Venture is up 3.2% for the month for the best performance among North American exchanges.  Gold, headed for its 3rd straight quarterly advance, has climbed 2.1% this month while Silver has jumped 5.7%.

Investors saw continued accommodation from central banks after Wednesday’s decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Keep in mind, in each and every bull market year going back to 2003, the Venture has climbed powerfully from its August close to year-end.  The average gain is nearly 30% which means it’s not unreasonable to expect the Venture to find its way to 1000 within the next 3 months.  That’s almost 25% higher than where it is now, and in that kind of environment there are countless stocks that will perform exceedingly well.  The question is, what will the catalysts be?  A big run in Gold and Silver, and/or a major discovery somewhere?

With the Fed out of the way for now, the Presidential election will come into greater focus with the much anticipated debate Monday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  The encounter between the two has the potential to shift perceptions about the outcome of the race, which in turn could impact Gold, the U.S. dollar and the equity markets.

Meanwhile, an informal meeting of OPEC member countries (and Russia) will take place on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria tomorrow through Wednesday.  Oil traders will be watching closely.  The group had its most recent formal meeting in Vienna in June, and many of its members gathered last April for unsuccessful discussions on limiting production.

Today’s Week In Review and A Look Ahead includes last week’s “Top 10 List“, the leader of which was Otis Gold (OOO, TSX-V) with a gain of 28.6%.

Click here to read the rest of today’s Week In Review And A Look Ahead, and learn more about where the Venture is headed in the coming weeks, with a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic subscription featuring a 100% money-back guarantee, or login with your username and password.