Gold has traded in a narrow range between $1,265 and $1,270 so far today…as of 11:30 am Pacific, bullion is off slightly at $1,268 as it prepares to close a strong month of July…Silver is 5 cents higher at $16.79…Copper has edged up 2 cents to $2.87…Nickel has added a penny to $4.61…Crude Oil reversed higher from its morning lows, now within just 25 cents of $50 a barrel, while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled nearly half a point to 92.92…support at 93…
The bullish positioning in Gold futures by large speculative accounts surged 153% in the aftermath of scaled-back expectations for future monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, based on the most recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission…meanwhile, also for the week ending July 25, Silver speculators swung from net short to net long…
The price of Copper hit a new 2-year peak today on upbeat manufacturing data in top consumer China, while Nickel touched a near 4-month high on renewed supply worries and soaring steel prices…growth in China’s manufacturing sector cooled slightly in July, as foreign demand for Chinese goods slackened, but a government-led drive to develop infrastructure boosted growth in the construction sector…the data, combined with an environmental crackdown in China, sent Chinese steel prices to their highest since December 2013…Nickel of course is used to make stainless steel…
Crude Oil Update
July has been the strongest month for Crude Oil this year as news of a producers’ compliance meeting next week added to bullish sentiment driven by the threat of U.S. sanctions against OPEC-member Venezuela…the Trump administration is reportedly considering imposing sanctions on Venezuela’s Oil sector in response to yesterday’s election of a constitutional super-body which Washington has denounced as a “sham” vote…
Drilling for new U.S. production is also slowing, with just 10 rigs added in July, the fewest since May 2016…
Significantly, WTI has broken out of its downsloping channel pattern since the spring, pushing beyond strong resistance at $48 a barrel…next obvious target is $51.50…
Venture Long-Term “Big Picture”
The consolidation in the Venture that started in August of last year ended, in our view, just over a couple of weeks ago when the Index touched a 2017 low of 749 – the rising 500-day exponential moving average (EMA-500) at the time…
Note in the long-term chart below how the EMA(500) has been the key moving average that has defined Venture bear and bull markets for the past 17 years; in other words, the EMA(500) is powerful resistance during bear cycles and powerful support during bull cycles…
No bull market has ever NOT retreated to its 500-day EMA, just like this one did earlier this month around 750…sudden big moves to the upside have consistently occurred almost immediately after the EMA(500) has been tested!…
RSI(14) appears to be finding new support at 50% and should start turning higher…buy pressure has remained steady on this long-term monthly chart during the consolidation phase since August of last year, meaning “smart money” has been accumulating on weakness…
Next major price target is near 1,000…
John has divided Venture history into 6 distinct trading periods…we’re now in “Period 6“ – a confirmed bull cycle that should last for at least a couple of years…
Period 1 (2001 into early 2003) is best described as “neutral” – mostly range trading as the Venture gauged developments including 9/11 and the war and recession that followed…
Period 2 (early 2003 to early 2007, a bull cycle) delivered a stellar return of 280%…
Period 3 (early 2007 to the end of 2008) was nasty – an 80% wipe-out thanks to the Great Crash…
The gain during Period 4 (2009 to early 2011, another bull cycle) was staggering, similar to Period 2 but over a shorter time frame, at 264%…
Period 5 (early 2011 to early 2016) was an ugly bear market as we all know, and the Venture declined a whopping 81% (same percentage decline but worse in many ways than Period 3 because it dragged on for 5 years)…
If Period 6 is similar to Periods 2 and 4, we can expect the Venture to make its way to at least 1700 during this cycle…
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