August « 2019 « BullMarketRun.com

The Template For The Next 10% Stake In Garibaldi Resources

Two Big Plays Emerge in B.C., Setting The Stage For A Summer To Remember

The Dramatic New Chase For A Nickel-Copper-Rich Massive Sulphide Deposit In The Heart Of A Famous Gold Camp

Northern Ontario Cobalt Junior Attracts Interest From Metal Trading Companies

The Most Important Venture Development Since The New Bull Market Began

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August 15, 2019

7 @ 7:00

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1. Gold has traded between $1,507 and $1,523 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is off just $1 an ounce at $1,515…Silver is flat at $17.17…key nearest Fib. resistance for Silver is in the $17.20’s…Gold backed off and stock futures recovered ahead of the open following some better than expected U.S. economic data plus what the market interpreted as encouraging words out of China with respect to trade issues…a spokesperson at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said China “hopes the U.S. will meet (it) halfway and implement the consensus reached by the 2 leaders during their meeting in Osaka”…trade negotiators from both sides have agreed to hold discussions again in 2 weeks…however, there are still many “structural issues” the U.S. needs to settle with China before they can reach a deal, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said yesterday…these issues include cyber intrusion into U.S. business networks, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation…Nickel, continuing to look strong, is unchanged at $7.23…Copper is off a penny at $2.57 while Zinc is up a penny at $1.02…Cobalt is steady at $13.83…Crude Oil has slipped 76 cents to $54.47 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained one-tenth of a point to 98.08…

2. American shoppers boosted spending in July, providing a source of fuel for the economy at a time of heightened global uncertainty…retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in July from a month earlier, well above economists’ expectations, the Commerce Department reported this morning…excluding autos, retail sales were up a robust 1.0% in July…the broader trend this year shows steady growth in retail sales…consumer spending increased 1.8% in the May-through-July period compared with the previous 3 months…Americans increased their outlays in July at electronics stores, clothing stores and restaurants…online sales were particularly strong, a possible result of Amazon.com’s Prime Day, a day of deals on the e-commerce site…consumer spending is the main driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of economic output…higher retail sales last month suggest spending was on solid footing, even against a backdrop of slowing global growth and fading tax-cut stimulus…spending gains will feed into the broader pace of economic growth for the quarter…earlier this week, forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projected GDP grew at a 1.7% seasonally adjusted annual pace in the 3rd quarter, down from a 2.1% annual rate in the 2nd quarter and a 3.1% pace in Q1…Q3 projections are likely underestimating the strength of the American consumer…

3. It’s not just the U.S. consumer that is doing better than expected in the face of growing recession fears…regional data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and the New York Federal Reserve shows resilient strength in the manufacturing sector…today the Philly Fed said that its manufacturing business outlook survey dropped less than expected to a reading of 16.8, down from July’s reading of 21.8…however, economists were expecting to see a much sharper drop to 10.0…at the same time the New York Fed said that its Empire State survey rose to 4.8, up modestly from July’s reading of 4.3…economists had expecting to see a reading of 2.1…meanwhile, U.S. productivity increased at an encouraging pace in the 2nd quarter, a trend that could lead to higher wages if it continues…the Labor Department said today that productivity, or output per hour worked, rose 2.3% in the April-June quarter, down from 3.5% in the first 3 months of the year…the 1st quarter gain was the best in 4 years…greater productivity is a key ingredient in raising living standards…it also enables companies to lift worker pay without raising prices on costumers…the recovery, now in its 11th year, was held back during the Obama era by historically weak productivity growth…

4. Chinese paramilitary forces conducted exercises across the border from Hong Kong today, raising fears that Beijing may be preparing to act against mass demonstrations in the Asian financial hub it has described as “near terrorism”…hundreds of members of the People’s Armed Police could be seen at a Shenzhen sports stadium where parking lots were filled by more than 100 dark-painted paramilitary vehicles, prompting U.S. concerns they could be used to break up protests across the border in Hong Kong…China reiterated yesterday that Hong Kong’s protests were “near terrorism” as more street clashes followed ugly and chaotic scenes at the airport two days ago, when protesters set upon two men they suspected of being government sympathizers…17 people were arrested yesterday, bringing the total number detained since June to 748, police told a news conference, adding that police stations have been surrounded and attacked 76 times during the crisis…

5. The Canadian Marijuana Index has slumped to levels not seen since late 2017 after Canopy Growth (WEED, TSX; CGC, NYSE) missed the lowest revenue estimate for its fiscal 1st quarter ended June 30…revenue was $90.5 million, versus the consensus estimate of $111.1 million…the company also saw a significant decrease in quarter-over-quarter gross margins, or the spread between sales price and costs…gross margin before fair value impacts in cost of sales in the quarter was $13.2 million, or 15% of net revenue…in the same quarter of 2019, that metric amounted to $11.1 million, or 43% of net revenue…the company expects to bolster its margins in the coming quarters as processing and cultivation of its products reaches planned capacity, stated CEO Mark Zekulin… “Our recent harvests are proof that our focus on operational excellence is working, and we look forward to showing both our Canadian and U.S. customers what we’ve been working on behind the scenes to prepare for the next wave of products coming later this year”…nonetheless, Q1 results didn’t meet market expectations and the stock is off $3.54 a share to $39.03 as of 7:00 am Pacific…

6. The Dow has rebounded 94 points through the first 30 minutes of trading after one of its biggest point drops (800) in history yesterday…the sell-off was triggered by media hysteria over a bond market phenomenon where the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly broke the 2-year rate…the inversion of this key part of the yield curve has been a reliable indicator, historically, of looming economic recessions…in Toronto, the TSX is up slightly while the Venture – pressured by weakness in the cannabis sector – has dipped another 5 points to 573…Silvercrest (SIL, TSX), one of the top Silver plays in the market, has closed a $23.3 million bought deal financing….GT Gold (GTT, TSX-V) has mobilized a 3rd drill to its Tatogga Project in Northwest British Columbia…“The 2019 season is off to an excellent start,” stated Charles Greig, Vice President of Exploration…“The 3rd drill gives us flexibility to test additional targets on the large Tatogga Property while maintaining our focus on what’s most important, Saddle North“…GT Gold’s Phase 1 exploration program is now complete and the company expects to release its next set of assay results in early September…Phase 2 drilling at Saddle North will focus on resource definition…

7. Cool reception for New Gold offering: New Gold’s $150 million stock issue at $1.55 was not as well received as underwriters expected and they remain stuck with about a third of the shares…Jon Case, precious metals portfolio manager with Sentry Investments, said he was offered a piece of the New Gold issue but turned it down…the less than enthusiastic reception for the New Gold issue points to a lack of interest from generalist investors, in sharp contrast to a couple of years ago…in 2016, the last time Gold bullion had a similar move upward in a short period of time, the appetite from investors for Gold equity issues was much stronger…“There was a New Gold-style deal every week,” Case recalled…“They were all oversubscribed, they all traded up because there was this absolute tsunami of money pouring into Gold equities. The fact that the New Gold deal hasn’t gone well tells you that despite the pretty spectacular performance in the equities, you still haven’t really got that generalist capital”…over the past decade, interest from both specialist mining funds and generalist investors has fallen, in large part because of disappointing performance at many of the big Gold companies…unnamed sources cited the relatively slim deal discount given New Gold’s risk profile, uneven interest in the sector and questions over the miner’s long-term prospects as factors…New Gold is carrying about $780 million (U.S.) in long-term debt, largely incurred by big cost overruns at its low grade Rainy River mine in Ontario…New Gold said it intends to use proceeds from the bought deal in part to pay down that debt…

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August 14, 2019

Daniel’s Den

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7 @ 7:00

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1. Gold has traded between $1,496 and $1,519 so far today as it rebounds from yesterday’s profit taking…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $13 an ounce at $1,514…Silver has pushed back above $17 an ounce, climbing 18 cents to $17.10…key nearest Fib. resistance is in the $17.20’s…Gold is hot but there’s another metal which is hotter – Nickel…up 30% over the past 2 months, Nickel has delivered more than double the performance of Gold and the gap could get wider as the supply of Nickel stagnates and demand accelerates…Nickel bulls also seem to have declared war on shorts who may soon have to capitulate…Nickel jumped as high as $7.29 overnight but is currently off 8 cents at $7.13…Copper has slid 3 pennies to $2.59 while Zinc is down 2 cents to $1.02…Cobalt continues to rebound, up 91 cents at $13.83…Crude Oil is under pressure, $2 lower at $55.10…Global Oil markets were impacted overnight by soft economic data out of China and Germany while the American Petroleum Institute’s reading of domestic Crude stockpiles rose by a much larger-than-expected 3.7 million barrels last week…the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 97.81…Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, told Kitco News, “Europe is such a basket case of taxation and regulation that they can’t get their economy going to they’ve gone to zero interest rates, in fact, Denmark is paying you to take out a mortgage”…Canada is also becoming a basket case of taxation and regulation and must reverse course quickly at the federal level to avoid the European disease…news just out that Canada’s Ethics Commissioner has found Prime Minister Trudeau contravened the federal Conflict of Interest Act in relation to the SNC-Lavalin (SNC, TSX) scandal…Mario Dion has found that after taking months to review “troubling” evidence relevant legal and constitutional principles, Trudeau contravened section 9 of the Act, which states that public office holders are prohibited from using their position to seek to influence a decision that furthers the interest of a private 3rd party…

2. Global growth concerns flared up again today after a trio of softer-than-expected economic data releases from China, including the weakest industrial production figures in 17 years, and news that Germany’s economy contracted 0.1% over the 3 months ending in June, thanks in part to a slump in exports linked to U.S.-China trade tensions…the weak readings for China and Germany, alongside the ongoing political turmoil in Italy and Argentina and the simmering protests in Hong Kong, snuffed out yesterday’s rally on Wall Street…China’s move to fix its currency north of the $7 mark again today also suggests yesterday’s trade detente may not signal a near-term breakthrough in negotiations between the world’s 2 biggest economies…

3. Inverted yields and the stock market, separating fact from fiction: The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond plunged to a new record low this morning as a global hunt for safer assets threatened to send the rate below 2% for the first time in history…shortly before 5 am Pacific, the yield on the U.S. 30-year bond traded at 2.015%, well below its prior all-time low of 2.0889% hit in the days following Britain’s June 2016 referendum to leave the European Union…along with the record low in the 30-year yield, plunging long-term rates caused the 10-year yield to fall below the 2-year rate, normally a reliable recession indicator…however, historical analysis shows that stocks typically have another 18 months to rally before equity markets start to see signs of trouble…while an inversion has preceded each recession over the past 50 years, the lead time is extremely inconsistent…historically, an inverted yield curve has been accompanied by a variety of other ominous economic signals including layoffs and credit deterioration…that isn’t happening now…data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows that 1) The last five 2–10 inversions have eventually led to recessions; 2) A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2–10 inversion; 3) The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% 1 year after a 2–10 inversion; 4) It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns…

4. Gravity and CSAMT key geophysical ground surveys conducted at American Pacific Mining’s (USGD, CSE) Tuscarora Gold Project, optioned to OceanaGold (OGC, TSX), have unlocked more of the geological mysteries surrounding this promising land package in Nevada that has delivered some impressive high-grade numbers…Tuscarora is a high-level, epithermal Gold/Silver district containing numerous precious metal veins within the project area…mineralization is coeval with that found in the nearby world-class Carlin and Cortez trends but differs in that it is hosted in a 40-million-year-old volcanic rock sequence on the flanks of an ancient caldera…historic drilling along the South Navajo zone has intersected high-grade mineralization from the South Navajo vein, just 1 of many veins that project into the property and are covered by pediment gravels…historic exploration efforts have focused on the interpretation that all veins are parallel to the South Navajo vein…the Navajo vein system has a north-northwest trend and dips to the west, with past drilling directed toward the east to intersect the vein…the newly interpreted geophysical data, in addition to geologic mapping, indicate that there are several structural trends ranging from northeast to north-south to northwest trending, and that dips are both east and west…no past drilling has addressed the east-dipping structures and no holes in the district have ever been drilled to the west to intersect this structural trend…the newly defined target areas, thanks to he gravity and CSAMT data, have very little drill data and open up entirely new project-wide exploration potential…drilling begins during the 2nd half of August…USGD is up half a penny at 17.5 cents through the first 30 minutes of trading…

5. The Dow has given up all of its gains from yesterday, and then some, in early trading today…the Dow has tumbled 457 points as of 7:00 am Pacific on global growth concerns…bank stocks are leading the declines as it gets tougher for the group to make a profit lending money in a lower rate environment…in Toronto, the TSX has slipped 188 points with the Gold Index bucking the trend, up 5 points at 252…Nighthawk Gold (NHK, TSX) has climbed another 3 cents to 66 cents as the stock takes aim at levels not seen since early 2018/late 2017…the Venture is 1 point lower at 586 with cannabis stocks acting as a headwind again…Eric Sprott has jumped into Kootenay Silver (KTN, TSX-V), acquiring 31.25 million units at a price of 16 cents per unit in a $5 million private placement announcement yesterday…James McDonald, KTN President and CEO, commented, “We are very pleased to have the support of Mr. Eric Sprott as a major investor in Kootenay. Having Mr. Sprott make a significant investment in the company is a strong endorsement of our Silver asset base. This financing puts us in a very strong financial position and allows us to move aggressively forward on not just Columba, but our other key assets as well”…Kootneay is up another half penny at 22 cents in early trading…Global Energy Metals (GEMC, TSX-V) announced this morning that it’s carrying out a geophysics program next week at its Lovelock mine in Nevada (Nickel-Copper-Cobalt) to further define targets for a first-ever drill program at the property…the airborne geophysical and topographical surveys are being carried out by MWH, industry leaders in drone technology…

6. The Canadian Marijuana Index is off sharply in early trading and is now just 15 points above a 52-week low…Charlotte’s Web Holdings (CWEB, TSX) has retreated 10% to $26.18 after releasing financial results for the 2nd quarter ended June 30, 2019, showing organic consolidated year-over-year revenue growth of 45% to $25 million (U.S.)…a 75% gross margin produced profit of $18.8 million with net income for the quarter of $2.2 million, 9% of consolidated revenue…elsewhere, Chemesis International (CSI, CSE) has signed LOI’s with 34 private liquor stores in British Columbia for distribution of its hemp-based chew products…Chemesis expects to begin distributing its products throughout the Lower Mainland and other densely populated areas of B.C. by early Q4 2019…Chemesis anticipates strong demand in the Canadian market, as its tobacco-free, smokeless product is a healthier alternative to otherwise similar products that are currently available…an IBIS World’s Cigarette & Tobacco Manufacturing research report published in November 2018 estimates the market for such products at $2 billion (CDN) with an annual growth rate of 8% since 2013…

7. Over 20 million electric vehicle charging points are expected to be deployed globally by 2030, consuming over 250% more Copper than in 2019, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie in a new report…Henry Salisbury, Wood Mackenzie research analyst, stated, “Copper is a cornerstone of the EV revolution. At the heart of the electric vehicle, it is used throughout because of its high electrical conductivity, durability and malleability. The need for Copper is even more significant when it comes to charging stations and supporting electrical grid infrastructure”…by 2040, Wood Mac predicts that passenger EVs will consume more than 3.7 million metric tons (mt) of Copper every year…in comparison, passenger internal combustion engine vehicles will need just over 1 million mt…Jefferies projects a 1 million mt Copper deficit in 2024 without more capital commitments from miners…Wood recently forecast a roughly 4 mt ton supply gap by 2028, based on annual production of about 25 million mt at that time…

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Comments (12)

August 13, 2019

7 @ 7:00

Visit the BMR comments section throughout the day for updates and helpful information!

1. Gold has traded between $1,479 and $1,535 so far today in a volatile session…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $23 an ounce at $1,487 on healthy profit taking and news within the last half hour of a slight “thawing” in U.S.-China trade relations…the U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR) said certain items were being removed from the new China tariff list because of “health, safety, national security and other factors”…in addition, the USTR also announced a delay of tariffs on “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing” until December 15…separately, China’s Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu had a phone call with Trade Representative Lightizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin…China said they agreed to another call in 2 weeks…President Trump continues to drive the agenda which puts the U.S. in the advantage…Gold is sensitive to every development in the U.S.-China trade saga, so this morning’s action in the metal isn’t surprising but comes in the context of a primary uptrend with deep support…Silver has backed off after briefly passing nearest measured Fib. resistance in the $17.20’s…again, normal technical trading – Silver is currently off 30 cents at $16.73…base metals are edging higher…Nickel, Copper and Zinc are all up slightly at $7.16, $2.62 and $1.03, respectively…Crude Oil has added $1.45 a barrel to $56.38 while the U.S. Dollar Index has pushed one-fifth of a point higher to 97.59…U.S. consumer prices rose more quickly than expected in July as gasoline reversed a 2-month decline and rent costs continued to climb…however, the CPI numbers won’t be enough to deter another rate cut that the markets have been clamoring for…

2. A plunge in bond yields has left investors with few alternatives to stocks…the latest flare-up in trade tensions has quickened investors’ flight to haven assets, pushing bond yields down to their lowest levels in years…the pullback in yields, along with a new phase of monetary loosening by central banks around the world, should give investors a new rallying cry for the 2nd half of the year…nearly 60% of stocks in the S&P 500 offer a dividend yield of at least 1.7%, according to FactSet, better than the 1.64% yield where 10-year U.S. Treasurys settled yesterday…

3. Chinese propaganda outlets warned today that protesters in Hong Kong are “asking for self-destruction” as they released a video showing the People’s Armed Police and military vehicles assembling in Shenzhen, a city bordering Hong Kong, about an hour-and-a-half drive away…The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China’s Communist Party, posted on Chinese social media a statement saying the People’s Armed Police are prepared to handle “riots, disturbance, major violence and crime and terrorism-related social security issues” in Hong Kong…in a social media post today from the Global Times‘ Chinese edition, the outlet said “if Hong Kong rioters cannot read the signal of having armed police gathering in Shenzhen, then they are asking for self-destruction,” according to a CNBC translation…the situation in Hong Kong has become very serious and markets are paying close attention…protesters swamped Hong Kong International Airport for a 2nd straight day today, blocking the gates to the security and immigration areas, and snarling the busy transit hub…

4. SunMetals (SUNM, TSX-V) has drilled 142.35 m (hole 428D) grading 1.2% Cu, 1.3 g/t Au, 21.8 g/t Ag and 0.41% Zn (3.8 g/t AuEq), including 32.2 m @ 8.1 g/t AuEq, and another 14.1 m @ 10.8 g/t AuEq, at its Stardust Property in north-central B.C., following up on the discovery in the 421 zone last fall…results from the first 3 holes this summer confirm continuity of mineralization down dip and to the south from hole 421…the other 2 holes released this morning were highlighted by 107 m of 1.6% Cu, 1.8 g/t Au and 28.6 g/t Ag (4.8 g/t AuEq) and 90.05 m @ 3.6 g/t AuEq, 50 m to the south of the mineralized intercept in hole 421 (true widths are unknown at this time)…Steve Robertson, President & CEO stated, “The initial step-out drilling was very important to establish the continuity this recently discovered mineralization in the 421 zone. It is particularly encouraging to see the continued strong precious metals content within this skarn altered zone. The Gold content makes this discovery even more captivating”…diamond drilling at Stardust was initiated in late May with 2 drills…to date, 5,220 m has been completed over 11 drill holes and holes 12 and 13 are in progress…the primary focus of the program is to explore around the mineralization identified in hole 421 which returned a 100-m interval of 2.5% Copper, 3 g/t Gold and 52.5 g/t Silver for a 5% CuEq or an 8 g/t AuEq…SUNM climbed as high as 58 cents in early trading and is up 2 pennies at 53 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…

5. Crystal Lake Mining (CLM, TSX-V) has added a 2nd drill rig to its Newmont Lake Project in the Eskay Camp as an important new grassroots discovery builds at Burgundy Ridge while evidence points to a potential major extension of the Northwest Gold Zone where historic results included 55 g/t Au over an 11-m core length…at Burgundy, the 3rd hole of a maiden diamond drilling program has been completed to a depth of 441 m, demonstrating that the system has deep roots and extends well beyond a Copper-Gold-enriched limestone body…multiple intrusive phases, breccias, alteration and mineralization styles have been intersected in each of the first 3 holes with intensity of mineralization increasing downhole in a hydrothermal breccia in hole 3…the 4th hole has commenced…meanwhile, new geophysical and geochemical data, in addition to a review and resampling of historic core, suggests the Northwest Gold zone is open for significant potential expansion, particularly to the northeast…drilling begins there in the coming days…28.7 g/t Au and 3.7 g/t Ag over 0.9 m (207.6 m to 208.5 m, true width unknown) has been assayed in a drill hole from 2008 (R08-03) that historically showed no high-grade results and had been interpreted as potentially closing off the zone on the northeast end…Crystal Lake’s results demonstrate otherwise…CLM is up half a penny at 34.5 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…

6. The Dow has soared 385 points through the first 30 minutes of trading as investors cheered apparent progress on the U.S.-China trade front…in Toronto, the TSX is up only 44 points, weighed down by a drop in the Gold Index…it opened at 256 and then promptly dipped to the 240 level…a very strong support band stretches from about 240 to the high 220’s…the winning strategy for a year now, proven repeatedly, has been to accumulate Gold stocks on any weakness during this bull run that is still in its early stages…most investors, however, prefer to chase…new revelations keep rolling in at Canntrust Holdings (TRST, TSX)…the Globe & Mail’s Jeffrey Jones wrote this morning that on the surface, the sad saga of CannTrust looks to be about a failed attempt to skirt regulations in an effort to meet promises to investors…what the reporting has shown, though, was a struggle for control at the executive and board levels, which led employees to divide themselves into warring camps…ultimately, the internal battle pushed conflict out in the open, and that was a factor in a crisis that has prompted the ejection of CannTrust’s 2 top executives, set off an investigation by securities regulators, led to an effort to sell the company and brought skepticism about the legal cannabis industry’s ability to operate like any other…the Venture touched 598 at the open but has backed off to 591, down 3 points, as of 7:00 am Pacific as Gold retreated…Kootenay Silver (KTN, TSX-V) was halted pre-market, pending news…

7. Over 20 million electric vehicle charging points are expected to be deployed globally by 2030, consuming over 250% more Copper than in 2019, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie in a new report…Henry Salisbury, Wood Mackenzie research analyst, stated, “Copper is a cornerstone of the EV revolution. At the heart of the electric vehicle, it is used throughout because of its high electrical conductivity, durability and malleability. The need for Copper is even more significant when it comes to charging stations and supporting electrical grid infrastructure”…by 2040, Wood Mac predicts that passenger EVs will consume more than 3.7 million mt of Copper every year…in comparison, passenger internal combustion engine vehicles will need just over 1 million mt…

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