1:30 pm Pacific

(Exclusive to BMR subscribers – Not for Distribution or Posting on any Board.

Venture Short-Term Chart

A series of major economic reports will drive markets this week, starting with Tuesday’s latest U.S. inflation numbers (CPI). Any further encouragement with respect to the inflation problem will be enthusiastically received by Mr. Market, and this will allow Gold to rebound as well. A hotter-than-expected inflation report for January could spook investors and give the U.S. dollar another lift after 2 straight weekly gains.

Broadly speaking, equity markets have strong technical underpinnings at the moment.

• The Venture has fallen 3 weeks in a row, but the decline during that time has only been 11 points or just 1.8%
• Some initial resistance was expected in the 630’s – a modest pullback has taken the Venture toward strong support at its rising 100-day EMA (610) and its rising 50-day EMA (605)
• The EMA-50 is threatening to cross above the EMA-100 – this is a rare event and typically very bullish
• Venture accelerated sharply, as expected, after finally conquering its downtrend line at the beginning of January
• RSI(14) has eased off to 51% where support can be expected
• Slow Stochastics (%K) is now approaching oversold levels
• ADX indicator confirms continuing bullish trend

Venture 5-Year Weekly Chart

The Venture’s 5-year weekly chart shows a market that has undergone fundamental change in recent weeks and months, flipping bullish after a bear phase that started in early 2021 and accelerated late that year, extending well into 2022.

• Major RSI(14) breakout above downtrend line going back to 2021
• RSI(14) at the key 50% level has also formed a bullish “W”
• Index has also broken out above its price downtrend line from mid-2022
• Triple bottom formed during the 2nd half of last year – key Fib. support (559) held as expected
• Buy pressure is still relatively modest but has increased over Q4 2022
• Bullish cross has occurred in the ADX indicator – the first one in 15 months
• Immediate resistance is in the 630’s
• Watch for a challenge of resistance just above 700, between Fib. 703 and the declining 100 and 200-day EMA’s at 721 and 740, respectively