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1. Gold has traded between $1,228 and $1,237 so far today as Americans vote in critical midterm elections…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is off $1 an ounce at $1,230…Silver is down 5 cents at $14.55…Copper is up a penny at $2.82…Nickel has rebounded 7 cents to $5.37 while Zinc is unchanged at $1.17…Crude Oil is relatively flat at $63.18…the Trump administration today granted temporary waivers to China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey, allowing them to continue purchasing Iranian Oil for 180 days…“These countries take on the lion’s share of Iranian Oil exports,” stated Commerzbank…“This is bad news for Oil prices, as it means the supply situation on the Oil market is set to ease further”…the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 96.30…the greenback would likely explode higher tomorrow if Republicans defy the pollsters and maintain control of the House of Representatives while also expanding their majority in the Senate…

2. As Americans cast their ballots today in the crucial midterm congressional elections, 2 final polls conducted by CNN and Rasmussen have predicted wildly different results…the final generic poll from left-leaning, Trump-hating CNN has put Democrats 13 points ahead of Republicans…meanwhile, a separate poll carried out by the more right-leaning Rasmussen agency has suggested that Republicans are leading, but by a much smaller margin of 1 point…for the record, Rasmussen was more accurate back in 2016…history is not on Trump’s side…the party of the sitting President has lost House seats in 35 of the 38 midterm elections held since the end of the Civil War in 1865…midterms usually produce gridlock in Washington, and Wall Street does have a tendency to love gridlock (U.S. equity markets have not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since 1946, and have surged roughly 10% into year-end following midterms since 1950)…the gridlock scenario this time around would be an expanded Republican majority in the Senate while the Democrats win control of the House…the Republicans appear highly likely to slightly expand their majority in the Senate…their House majority is vulnerable, however, but the left’s hope of a Big Blue Wave will be shattered like it was 2 years ago…

3. The latest data from the world’s two largest Gold-buying nations points to soft demand in India but an improving picture in China, according to Commerzbank…analysts cite data from India’s Ministry of Finance showing that Gold imports plunged by 42% year-on-year to 38.8 tonnes in October…“The consumer restraint was chiefly due to the steep rise in Gold prices in Indian rupees beforehand,” Commerzbank stated…“Bullion dealers and jewelers are running numerous special offers in a bid to revive Gold demand in India during the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals that are taking place this week”…meanwhile, analysts cite data from the China Gold Association showing that that country’s Gold demand grew by 5.1% year-on-year to 850 tonnes in the first 3 quarters, with the organization attributing this to falling Gold prices, weak stock markets, exchange-rate moves and China-U.S. trade tensions…the organization’s data for Gold demand is significantly higher than that compiled by the World Gold Council, Commerzbank points out…meanwhile, China’s Gold production decreased by 7.5% to 290 tonnes from January to September… “China is filling the gap with imports – for example, from Hong Kong and Switzerland – and will also remain a major Gold importer in the future,” Commerzbank added…

4. Gold holdings in global exchange-traded funds and similar products rose in October by 16.5 tonnes for the first monthly inflow in 4 months, the World Gold Council reported today…holdings now stand at 2,345.6 tonnes…still, they are down 25.8 tonnes for the year to date…“Global stock markets experienced their worst October since the 2008 financial crisis, with the MSCI All-World Index down more than 7.4% on the month,” the WGC said…“As a result, Gold benefited from flight-to-safety investment flows.  Further, U.S. dollar-hedged Gold benefited in the stronger dollar risk-off environment, rallying 4.3% on the month.  Flows into North America-based ETFs grew by 12.4 tonnes during the month.  Holdings in European ETFs climbed by 10.5 tonnes, while those in Asia decreased by 6.5 tonnes.  There was a 0.2-tonne increase for ‘other’ regions”…SPDR Gold Shares led global inflows, gaining 11.8 tonnes during the month, while iShares Gold Trust added 5 tonnes…

5. More problems with Cobalt in the Congo…Katanga (KAT, TSX) is under renewed pressure after announcing that it’s temporarily suspending the export and sale of Cobalt at its Kamoto Project until further notice…the presence of Uranium was recently detected in the Cobalt hydroxide produced at Kamoto in levels that exceed the acceptable limit allowed for export of the product through main African ports to customers (one has to wonder if this could be a more widespread issue)…to date, the total Cobalt production impacted by the sale suspension amounts to 1,472 tons…the low levels of radioactivity detected in the Uranium to date do not present a health and safety risk, according to the company…Katanga adds that production of Cobalt at Kamoto is expected to continue “without reduction in the quantity”, once problems are sorted out…the company says it’s currently conducting additional surveys to identify the source of the Uranium and exploring various options to mitigate the impact of the sales suspension…KAT resumed trading at 7:00 am Pacific after a halt at the open…initial trades have the stock down 12 cents at 52 cents…North American Cobalt plays should benefit from the news – First Cobalt (FCC, TSX-V), as an example, is up 3.5 cents at 27.5 cents as of 7:00 am Pacific…

6. A report in this morning’s The Wall Street Journal outlines how a prolonged period of underinvestment by commodity producers is setting the stage for large price increases in raw-materials markets…prices of Copper, Nickel and Aluminum could soar past prior records in the coming years, according to certain portfolio managers…such a development would likely transform markets hampered in recent years by soft prices and tepid investor interest…global miners are only spending a third of what they did 5 years ago on new projects…they’re on track to invest roughly $40 billion for the 3rd straight year, down from more than $120 billion 5 years ago and $80 billion almost a decade ago, according to commodities consultancy Wood Mackenzie…worries that U.S.-China tariffs will slow growth and hurt demand for commodities have weighed on prices the last few months with strong price corrections across the board…“It’s incredibly bullish and inflationary for metals on a long enough horizon,” stated Stephen Gill, managing partner of Pala Investments…“You have a window of opportunity at these low prices”…the lack of investment in metals echoes what happened in the Oil market…a 25% drop in spending on new projects in 2015 and 2016 set the stage for a rally that sent Crude prices to near 4-year highs this year…ramping up metal supply is much more challenging than ramping up Oil supply…meanwhile, mining deals are on track to total about $40 billion for the 4th consecutive year, a fraction of the record $131 billion spent in 2011, according to Dealogic…stock buybacks from the world’s largest miners are also set to more than double for the 2nd straight year, FactSet data show..

7. The Dow has added 78 points through the first 30 minutes of trading…the Canadian market is at one of the cheapest levels vs. its U.S. counterpart in the last 30 years…that’s what over-regulation and high taxes do, plus a disastrous energy policy that continues to drive investment out of Canada…the big internationals, and now Canadian-based firms like Encana, are moving their operations and/or capital budgets out of Canada and relocating their money to the U.S. (Trump is loving it) and elsewhere…the S&P/TSX is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of only 13 times the 2019 consensus estimate…as of 7:00 am Pacific, the TSX is up 75 points while the Venture, aiming for its 5th straight daily gain, is up 2 points at 663…

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