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December 17, 2018

7 @ 7:00

Visit the BMR comments section throughout the day for updates and helpful information!

1. Gold has traded between $1,236 and $1,243 so far todayas of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $4 an ounce at $1,242 after last week’s healthy retreat…Silver is 6 cents higher at $14.60…Copper has shed 2 pennies to $2.77…Nickel and Zinc are flat at $4.98 and $1.18, respectively, while Cobalt is unchanged at $25.06…Crude Oil is off 5 cents at $51.15 while the U.S. Dollar Index is steady at 97.43…markets have priced in a quarter point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting…the focus will be on how many hikes will follow in 2019…dovish rhetoric by the Fed would go over well with Wall Street and commodity sector investors…Bitcoin rose sharply today, climbing above $3,400 in a move traders ascribed to heavy buying on Japan and Hong Kong-based exchanges…the original cryptocurrency, which has lost half its value in the last 3 months, jumped as much as 11% on the Bitstamp platform and was headed for its biggest daily rise since November 28…in economic news, U.S. homebuilder sentiment declined in December to its lowest point since May 2015…the index has plummeted nearly 20 points over the past year while potential buyers hesitate to purchase new homes even as mortgage rates have pulled back in recent weeks…the housing slowdown is an early indicator of economic softening, a fact that will likely not be lost on Fed officials the next couple of days…

2. Corruption in the Congo:  Katanga Mining (KAT, TSX), a subsidiary of Anglo-Swiss commodities and mining conglomerate Glencore – as well as a key long-serving executive of the parent company – are expected to settle serious allegations levelled by Canada’s largest capital markets regulator at a hearing later this week in Toronto, according to a report in this morning’s Financial Post…the combined financial penalties in the proposed settlement are understood to exceed $20 million, sources say…the Ontario Securities Commission has been investigating whether Katanga made materially misleading statements and is also said to have been looking into whether the firm failed to adequately disclose risks pertaining to international bribery, government payment and anti-corruption laws…meanwhile, Katanga’s activities in the Congo have also drawn scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice…sources say the investigation has involved multiple jurisdictions including Switzerland, the U.S., the United Kingdom and the Congo…Katanga has also faced scrutiny over its relationship with Israeli billionaire Dan Gertler, who was sanctioned by the U.S. government in December 2017 in a sweep targeting corruption and human rights abuses…“Gertler has used his close friendship with DRC President Joseph Kabila to act as a middleman for mining asset sales in the DRC, requiring some multinational companies to go through Gertler to do business with the Congolese state,” the U.S Department of the Treasury said at that time…

3. Ethically-sourced Cobalt can be found in the Northern Ontario Cobalt Camp where district leader Canada Cobalt (CCW, TSX-V), still in talks with European and Asian clients, is the only junior explorer/miner in North America during this “battery arms race” to actually produce a Cobalt product from its own mineralized material, thanks to its Castle mine and a proprietary process (Re-2OX)…the company continues to hit massive Cobalt in underground drilling at Castle, as disclosed in news Friday, but what’s also intriguing and significant is that CCW has made a new discovery about 1.5 km east-southeast of the mine where potential high-grade Gold is concentrated in the Archean rocks with more Cobalt-Silver-rich vein networks below the Archean sulphides…the company reported that 2 widely-spaced drill holes have intersected an apparent syenite Gold system with nearby Cobalt potential in a previously undrilled area of the Castle Property, approximately 75 km from Kirkland Lake…drilling continues…the latest holes have cut multiple zones of quartz veining, extensive disseminated pyrite (often associated with Gold in the district), some chalcopyrite and very favorable alteration similar to what exists in the Kirkland Lake area…CCW, the world’s top performing Cobalt stock in 2018, has a history of major upside moves from the last half of December into January and February…it’s off slightly in early trading this morning after a 10-cent run Friday to 55 cents…

4. The Gowganda area is a logical location for Canada’s next grassroots Gold discovery…this morning, iMetal Resources (IMR, TSX-V) – preparing for imminent/near-term drilling – announced that it has increased its Gowganda West land package near CCW’s Castle Property to 140 sq. km by adding, through staking, an additional 35 sq. km along the eastern boundary…as a new understanding of Gowganda West emerges through extensive sampling and state-of-the-art airborne geophysics, areas previously neglected due to overburden cover are considered much more highly prospective for Gold, Copper, Silver, Cobalt and other metals…significantly, IMR has found multiple outcrops highly mineralized with Gold and Copper over a broad area with rock units, alteration and mineralization similar to that seen in the Kirkland Lake Camp…Gowganda West is contiguous to the 4-million ounce Juby Gold Project, soon to be owned by Pan American Silver (PAAS, TSX) following its friendly takeover of Tahoe Resources (THO, TSX), and has never been systematically explored due in part to heavy forestation and overburden cover…a massive clear-cutting and logging operation has opened up critical access while exposing outcrops that were previously hidden…the area was also off-limits for exploration throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s due to a land caution issue that was resolved by the Supreme Court…

5. High on our list of favorite Gold producers, given world class grades and increasing production at the Brucejack mine in the Eskay Camp, is Pretium Resources (PVG, TSX)…late Friday, after markets closed, Pretium announced that it has received the amended permits to increase the Brucejack mine production rate by approximately 40% to 3,800 tonnes per day…minor mill upgrades (estimated to cost less than $25 million) to support the production rate increase are required and will be completed during regularly scheduled mill shutdowns…a specific timeline for ramp-up to the 3,800-tonne-per-day production rate, along with an updated mine plan, is expected during the 1st quarter of next year…

Q3 Summary

  • 92,641 ounces of Gold produced
  • 12.4 g/t Gold mill feed grade
  • 97.4% Gold recovery rate
  • 240,122 tonnes of ore milled
  • 2,610 tonnes per day ore milled
  • Over $190 million cash position as of Sept. 30

Q4 production is expected to increase by as much as 37% over Q3, meaning PVG could close the year with total 2018 production as high as 407,000 ounces….all-in sustaining costs for the 2nd half of 2018 are expected to range from $710 to $770 (U.S.) per ounce Gold sold…those are very favorable numbers….with production having reached a steady state at Brucejack, an increased focus is being placed on operational efficiency to bring costs down even further…the company’s combined Q2/Q3 net income was $41 million (U.S.) after a small loss in Q1

6. The Dow is down another 211 points as of 7:00 am Pacific after a sharp drop on Friday…all 3 major U.S. indexes closed Friday in correction territory for the first time since March 2016…investors hoping to avoid the first annual decline for major U.S. stock indexes since 2015 are dreaming of a Santa Claus rally…CIBC has cancelled the energy portion of an investors’ conference in Whistler next month…Oil and gas companies justifiably pulled out after ridiculous anti-Oil sector comments by Whistler Mayor Jack Crompton…he later issued a soft apology but frustration is building in Canada at these attacks on our hugely important Oil and gas industry by climate change extremists on their globalist agenda to “save the planet” – enough is enough…the TSX, which closed at a 2-year low Friday at 14,595, has retreated another 82 points as of 7:00 am Pacific…strong support exists at 14,500Kirkland Lake Gold’s (KL, TSX) 12-session winning streak was snapped on Friday but the stock has rebounded 94 cents to $32.68 in early trading today…the Venture is flat at 55519 years of Venture history, current sentiment levels and multiple charts indicate a sharp reversal in the Index is imminent…over the past 2 decades, December lows have occurred as early as the 1st of the month and as late as the 21st…

7.  PyroGenesis (PYR, TSX-V) announced this morning that is has received a purchase order to provide specialty metal powder from a government entity –  the name, origin, amount, and type of powder are not permitted to be disclosed, however…this order will require PyroGenesis to produce specialty reactive metal powder using its plasma atomization expertise…first delivery is expected to occur Q1 2019…it is expected that, upon successful qualification, follow-on orders would occur…“Although small, under 1 ton, this commercial order reinforces the fact that we are, once again, the go-to company for an entity that has, at its fingertips, many options.  Not only does this opportunity allows us to expand our powder offerings but it also creates a potentially high value niche market, which, once again, highlights our competitive advantages,” stated Peter Pascali, President and CEO of PyroGenesis.  “This order is clearly a recognition of PyroGenesis’ strengths as an innovative plasma company, and further underscores our position, and value, to the additive manufacturing industry”…

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18 Comments

  1. Hi Jon
    Is it likely that these larger number of shares in IMR are being sold lately because there is a financing coming?

    Comment by Paul — December 17, 2018 @ 11:28 am

  2. That’s not the case at all, Paul – entirely related to normal December Venture tax loss trading season which makes the opportunity around current levels even more compelling..IMR also just completed a financing, they’re in good shape…future PP’s will be at higher prices – pros wouldn’t sell at 10 or 11 cents to get in on a PP at significantly higher prices, obviously…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 17, 2018 @ 11:41 am

  3. How much of the recent IMR 8c financing did you/BMR draw down, Jon? What’s your overall interest in the stock?

    Comment by Eagle789 — December 17, 2018 @ 12:08 pm

  4. Whats anyones opinion on AIS????

    Comment by Jeremy — December 17, 2018 @ 3:23 pm

  5. Hi Jeremy, I have asked that question a few times and got no response. I take that as a good sign as maybe everyone has given up on it. Perhaps a great tax loss buy??

    Comment by Danny — December 17, 2018 @ 4:19 pm

  6. People in our group grabbed at least one-third of that 8-cent PP, Eagle789, and my personal share position in IMR is now 1.2 million and growing. I’m happy to add more at these and even higher levels as events progress on the ground.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 17, 2018 @ 4:21 pm

  7. Danny – no idea:) drill results better be better than average or I fear it is a dead duck…

    Comment by Jeremy — December 17, 2018 @ 4:28 pm

  8. Hi Jon, do you have any the slightest concern we might see some real ugliness out there especially if the Fed actually continues to raise rates more next year and takes a hawkish tone?

    Comment by flyinthruu — December 18, 2018 @ 3:52 am

  9. I believe the Fed will do the right thing, flyinthru…keep in mind, two reasons they’ve been aggressive with rate hikes the past 2 years – Trump filled the fiscal vacuum with tax cuts and regulatory reform, giving the Fed more leeway, and the Fed wanted to get into a position where they had an opportunity to ease once they had to.

    Rather than the 3 or 4 rate hikes the Fed was planning in 2019, it’s quite possible they could scale back to no more than 1, late in the year. This is what happened in 2016 after the first rate hike at the end of 2015, and commodities of course responded very well through most of 2016 as the U.S. dollar came under pressure.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 18, 2018 @ 5:04 am

  10. I’m truly hoping that’s what they do…going dovish is definitely the right thing.

    Comment by flyinthruu — December 18, 2018 @ 5:08 am

  11. Keep in mind, too, flyinthru that it won’t be as easy for Trump to get things done during the final 2 years of his term – that’s the way it is with every President…the big fiscal push occurred during his first 2 years, so now the Fed has to provide some backup like it did throughout the entire Obama era…

    I believe we’ll see another hike tomorrow, as expected, but also a real change in tone from the Fed which will be a catalyst to get things back on track in the markets…

    The dollar has likely topped out…good news for commodities and the Venture…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 18, 2018 @ 5:11 am

  12. Hoping US and China finally make a trade deal too…thinking Trump needs that and better market if he has a shot at reelection.

    Comment by flyinthruu — December 18, 2018 @ 5:24 am

  13. Never easy dealing with China, but they’ll get to a deal sooner or later…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 18, 2018 @ 6:25 am

  14. The Fed is not on Trump’s side, they will do whatever it takes to derail him getting re elected regardless of the economy imo, watch for Trump to try and re structure the Fed in some way, there has been rumours of going back to the gold standard too. Next 2 yrs of Trump is going to be very interesting to watch.

    Comment by GREGH — December 18, 2018 @ 10:36 am

  15. GREGH… I disagree with you on this one. Not everyone is out to get Trump. The FED marches to it’s own drum. They don’t always get it right. Greenspan took a lot of flak for not raising rates to cool things off. Not an easy job to manage the interest rate environment to avoid hard landings and craziness to the upside.

    Comment by Danny — December 18, 2018 @ 4:17 pm

  16. The Fed got the break that it needed to raise rates when Trump got elected because finally the fiscal vacuum was filled with broad tax cuts and regulatory reform. Under Obama, the Fed had to fill that fiscal vacuum by keeping rates at rock bottom during an era of low growth due to fiscal/regulatory drag. The Fed moved aggressively the last 2 years, while the political dynamics were just right, to position themselves to ease in the event of a slowdown – globally, there are now definitely signs of a slowdown that could or will impact the U.S. The political dynamics also aren’t as favorable over the next 2 years as the last half of any Presidency doesn’t normally accomplish much, and now you have Pelosi and the Democrats controlling the House. The Fed will be lucky to carry out 1 rate hike in 2019, well below the 4 they forecast in October. This should put pressure on the dollar and a lower dollar is definitely what commodities, the Venture and the broader equity markets need. The high dollar is also pinching U.S. corporate earnings for companies with overseas exposure, and it’s also deflationary.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 18, 2018 @ 5:43 pm

  17. Agree with your points Jon, the FED now has some flexibility to drop rates should the economy cool. Looking forward to the end of tax loss selling.

    Comment by Danny — December 18, 2018 @ 5:59 pm

  18. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/fed-hikes-interest-rates-fourth-time-year-despite-trump-s-n949896

    Comment by GREGH — December 19, 2018 @ 12:09 pm

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