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August 1, 2019

7 @ 7:00

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1. Gold has traded between $1,400 and $1,411 so far today following “Fed Day” yesterday and the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in more than a decade…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion has slipped a further $8 an ounce to $1,405…it was always going to be a tough job for the Fed to be as dovish as markets hoped, so yesterday’s weakness in Gold and equities was no major surprise…Silver is down 26 cents to $15.97 where it’s now trading in an area of strong technical support…Nickel, Copper and Zinc are all off modestly at $6.45, $2.66 and $1.08, respectively…Crude Oil has retreated $1.69 a barrel to $56.89 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added another one-quarter of a point to 98.80…after 1 more interest rate cut the Federal Reserve will be finished cutting rates, according to Goldman Sachs…we doubt it…the firm estimates an 80% probability of another rate cut this year to wrap up the Fed’s easing cycle…“[Powell’s] language we see as consistent with our expectation that easing will end with a second 25bp cut,” said Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients following yesterday’s FOMC meeting…a miss this morning (just out) in the headline manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management…the reading came in at 51.2% for July, down from the consensus estimate of 52% and lower than June’s 51.7%…this should give Gold a lift…

2. Central banks’ insatiable appetite for Gold dominated the marketplace between April and June, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC)…in its 2nd-quarter Gold Demand Trends report, the WGC said that central banks bought a whopping 224 tonnes of Gold between April and June…official Gold reserves increased by 374.1 tonnes in the 1st half of the year – “the largest net H1 increase in global Gold reserves in our 19-year quarterly data series,” the analysts said in the report…“Buying was again spread across a diverse range of largely emerging market countries”9 central banks bought Gold in the 1st half of the year…“Central banks, like other investors, sought safety in Gold as they looked to protect themselves in the face of many looming risks”…meanwhile, global Gold demand totalled 1,123 tonnes in the 2nd quarter, up 8% from the 2nd quarter of 2018…for the 1st half of the year, physical Gold demand rose 2,181.7 tonnes, its highest level in 3 years…

3. Growth in Oil supply is forecast to accelerate next year in a global wave of production, preventing Crude prices from breaking out and possibly lowering fuel prices for consumers…this will help keep a lid on U.S. and global inflation and should also encourage further interest rate cuts by central banks…the U.S. is expected to continue driving much of the surge in Crude output, and increases by smaller producers such as Brazil and Norway will contribute to excess supply…Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase analysts currently project supply will grow roughly 1 million barrels a day more than demand in 2020, resulting in a surplus each quarter of next year…many investors have long expected a surge in U.S. shale production to continue as new pipelines from the prolific Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico ease bottlenecks in the region…but analysts said the addition of barrels from ancillary producers threatens to make the expected surpluses bigger, particularly as concern about a slowing world economy triggers fears about crumbling demand…

4. Canada’s Oilpatch took its battle to the people today ahead of this fall’s federal election…an open letter penned by executives from 3 major Oil companies asked Canadians to urge their politicians to “help our country thrive by supporting an innovative energy industry”…better yet, they should have asked what common sense country in the world would shoot itself in the foot like Canada has when it comes to its Oil sector – the biggest contributor to our GDP?…the letter, appearing in Canadian newspapers today, says the Oil sands have reduced emissions by 30% over the past 20 years, countering the lies and distortions from the Oil-hating loony left greenies, and limiting the domestic industry would only result in Canada using more highly polluting fuels from other countries…the Oil sector is grappling with a serious pipeline shortage because of stalled projects and has been vocal in its opposition to new regulations and laws brought in by the Trudeau Liberals that are opposite to what the United States is doing…meanwhile, after a brief slowdown this year, trains are once again carrying skyrocketing amounts of Oil across Canada – this is a situation that climate change extremists have created which, ironically, is worse for the environment and threatens lives (not to mention the fact it’s more costly to move Oil by rail)…according to data from the National Energy Board, more than 8.8 million barrels of Crude were moved by rail in May, up more than 2 million barrels from last year…the fossil-fuel hating, “save the planet” left has truly gone insane…

5.  Kinross Gold (K, TSX) has struck a $283 million (U.S.) deal to buy a Russian Gold development project…Kinross has reached a friendly arrangement with privately held N-Mining to buy the Chulbatkan Project for a combination of cash and stock…Kinross hopes to eventually develop the property, located in the Khabarovsk region of Russia’s far east, into a low-cost, open-pit mine…Cyprus-based N-Mining was founded by a number of former executives of Polyus Gold International, Russia’s largest Gold producer…Kinross said its own drilling, conducted over the past 16 months, indicates the Chulbatkan Property contains a resource of 3.9 million ounces of Gold (Indicated resource of 87 million tonnes @ 1.4 g/t) over the next 3 years…Kinross plans to do more drilling to try to prove the project’s economic viability…the company’s early study points to a 6-year mine life, with an all-in sustaining cost of $550 (U.S.) an ounce and an initial capital cost commitment of half a billion dollars…Kinross boss Paul Rollinson is “really excited about the potential”Kinross expects the deal to close by early next year…the Chulbatkan purchase broadens Kinross’s footprint in Russia…

6. The Dow is up 82 points through the first 30 minutes of trading…the Dow had its worst day since May yesterday in a “sell on news” event following the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell news conference…at times Powell didn’t make himself very clear which contributed to some market confusion…investors’ focus now shifts from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on further interest rate cuts to corporate earnings, which have been robust…almost 3 weeks through earnings, reports so far have been strong…of the 296 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported 2nd-quarter earnings, 74.7% have beaten Street estimates for profit, according to Refinitiv data…in Toronto, the TSX is up slightly while the Venture is relatively unchanged at 590…Canada is entering a long holiday weekend and that will trim trading volumes and news flow tomorrow…however, traditionally, we’re rapidly approaching a seasonal period of strength for the Venture which typically begins soon after the August holiday…

7. New Gold (NGD, TSX) has reported a 2nd quarter net loss of $36 million, but production and cash costs are well on track to meet or exceed annual guidance…total production for the quarter (excluding production from the Cerro San Pedro mine) was 132,556 Gold equivalent ounces (85,216 ounces of Gold, 151,305 ounces of Silver and 21.6 million pounds of Copper), lifting 6-month production to 255,820 Gold equivalent ounces…production is on track to meet annual guidance of 465,000 to 520,000 Gold equivalent ounces…revenues for the quarter were $155 million and $323 million for the 6-month period…total cash costs were $740 per AuEq ounce for the quarter and $717 per AuEq ounce over 6 months…total cash costs are on track to meet annual guidance of $740 to $820 per AuEq ounce…“We are excited with the significant progress to date at Rainy River as we reach the mid-point of this pivotal and transformational year for the operation, as well as another quarter of solid performance from New Afton,” stated CEO Renaud Adams…The Rainy River and New Afton teams have made significant progress and we look forward to building on that success over the coming quarters.  During the 2nd half of the year, capital requirements are expected to increase as we plan to substantially complete all remaining construction projects at Rainy River in order to reposition the asset for efficient and sustainable mining, as well as advance C-zone development at New Afton, all of which is underpinned by our current liquidity position of $395 millionNGD is off 14 cents at $1.62 (strong support) as of 7:00 am Pacific

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