Gold has rebounded off a 4.5-month low of $1,546 this morning…as of 5:55 am Pacific, bullion is up $4 an ounce at $1,561…Silver is 14 cents higher at $28.32 after briefly dipping below $28 an ounce…Copper is flat at $3.59…Crude Oil is up 25 cents at $95.00 while the U.S. Dollar Index is relatively unchanged at 80.66…
Gold is trading at its lowest levels since December, but Morgan Stanley analysts say Gold’s bull market “is not over” and that they are buyers of the metal at current prices…the recent sell-off in prices is “consistent with distressed selling and long liquidation”, but they think prices will recover in the coming weeks…they say the factors that have supported Gold remain in place: the European sovereign debt crisis and low interest rates…they also note that the low level of speculative net-length in the CFTC reports is a positive sign…
Technically, the last time Gold’s 9-day RSI was at the 19% level was in mid December – just prior to the spike low to $1,528 on December 29…at that time a bullish divergence formed on the momentum indicator and prices rallied higher…Gold could certainly re-test the $1,528 level in the coming days and perhaps even dip below that briefly on a “capitulation” sell-off, but the $1,500 level really has to hold…
Today’s Markets
European equities inched up from 2012 lows this morning, cheered by better-than-expected economic data, but gains were capped by concerns about the future of the euro zone and the possibility of Greece’s exit from the bloc…Asian markets were mixed today with the Shanghai Composite closing down 6 points at 2375…stock index futures in New York as of 5:55 am Pacific are pointing toward a positive open on Wall Street…
The Venture Exchange hit a new 52-week low yesterday of 1301.74 and closed at 1304 but on relatively tame volume, well down from levels seen a week ago when the CDNX plunged 59 points in one day…the TSX Gold Index also hit a new 52-week low yesterday of 277…it is down exactly 30% in just under three months after the February 23 intra-day yearly high of 393…since last summer’s peak, the Gold Index has caved a whopping 39%…
The Canadian Dollar Indicator
The Canadian Dollar, interestingly, is often a reliable indicator of the direction of the commodity sensitive Canadian stock markets, and right now the Dollar is telling us that stocks are ready for a turnaround…the Dollar is sitting right at support based on several indicators…since there is a clear correlation between the Dollar and the TSX and the Venture Exchange, we can have some hope that the week will end on a more positive note than it has started…
John has three individual company chart updates this morning, beginning with Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX) which shows all the elements of a stock at or near a bottom which is positive again for the market as a whole…
Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V)
Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V)
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GPR, ABI or FMS.
We are under 1300 on TSX Venture
Tiiiiiimberrrr
Comment by Mr Chart — May 15, 2012 @ 5:48 am
Jon – One of the big problems in the industry right now is what I would call “lifestyle” companies – companies that are run by CEO’s and Presidents whose focus is really not on creating shareholder wealth, but raising a bunch of money (quite often flow-through), collecting their pay checks every month (usually from more than one company), maintaining their leisurely and comfortable lifestyles, and going through the motions on the ground. These prove to be bad investments.
Bert – With all due respect my friend, the above narrative poses me to question, why in the name
of the world, did you bring forward such stocks as VGD, VGN, etc. if you knew they were/are
characters, as described above. Sorry my Buddy, but your every word is digested & picked apart,
to determine whether or not, this may be a site, worthy of subscribing to in the future.
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 5:49 am
Anyone offer any thoughts on the future of Canaco at this point? Down 57 percent this morning…
Comment by erik — May 15, 2012 @ 5:55 am
I’m waiting for BMR to turn bearish. That is my sign we have hit a bottom. No offence 🙂
Comment by Mr Chart — May 15, 2012 @ 5:57 am
Bert, in the case of VGD, it was in a fabulous situation last year with a lot of money in the treasury and a couple of outstanding plays at Wasamac and Joutel…..and the stock had a good summer…….Martin Dallaire swore up and down his wasn’t a “lifestyle company” but when the market really got negative last September, he ran away from the market and did some bizarre things…..that’s often the real test….how does a company perform in a down market…….Bert, the markets are a constant learning process…..we learn from our mistakes, or at least we should……
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 15, 2012 @ 5:58 am
No wonder it’s down….after all that drilling, and those kind of numbers? That’s crazy……
Comment by Jon - BMR — May 15, 2012 @ 6:02 am
Mr. Chart – Tiiiiiimberrrr
Bert – It appears you are a person of many talents. Not only are you a chart reader but
a timber cutter.. Watch out below, Mr Chart may be dangerous with that powersaw. R !
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 6:03 am
Anyone have a long term chart on TSXV?
Where did we bottom 2008?
It’s some way to go I guess……
Rick Rule is right, companies on TSXV are wordering what they will do for a living in 6 months…
Comment by Mr Chart — May 15, 2012 @ 6:15 am
Take a look at LC….great news regarding Graphite property with some drill holes by Noranda. Jon, can you take a look at it? Thanks!
Comment by STEVEN — May 15, 2012 @ 6:36 am
TSX-V 1280 and going doooooooown
The support at 1300 was broken like a tooth pick
Comment by Don — May 15, 2012 @ 7:38 am
VGN – roodenburg is a scumbag stealing from shareholders nothing more nothing less – sold this dog.
Comment by Hugh — May 15, 2012 @ 7:41 am
tsx.v hit around 720 in 08. The problem now is that we broke very strong support, it will be hard to tell how much more we fall or where the end is and at what price. Some very respected analysts were calling for this last fall. In regards to LC (and this is my 2 cents worth), they have announced 3 graphite properties in the last 2 weeks. They have only gained a penny through all that. I would be carefull, again, my opinion only but cash is king till we see the tsx.v pick its head up out of the sand.
Comment by dave — May 15, 2012 @ 7:51 am
Dave – Some very respected analysts were calling for this last fall.
Bert – I don’t believe they could have made such a call last fall, if they did,
it would have been just a passing thought. How about the so called respected
analysts’, who called it differently.. I really don’t know why analysts’ fall
into that category, Respected. One usually faces off with the other, with opposite
opinions & the winner is— we will have to wait until next fall to find the answer.
Sorry my buddy, but thats how i feel about the so called experts. By the way, J. P.
Morgan, is so called Respected & what happened there. If the shareholders do it
right, they will boot the CEO in the arse, because he is the person responsible… R !
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 8:22 am
ATAC Resources Ltd. Announces the Commencement of its 2012 Exploration and Drilling Program at its Rackla Gold Project, Yukon
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 8:32 am
TSX-V 700 on the Horizon?
This is looking worse and worse.
BMR still bullish?
Comment by Don — May 15, 2012 @ 9:14 am
Good post Bert, I agree with your thoughts.
Comment by dave — May 15, 2012 @ 9:19 am
TSXV hit about 684 on Dec 5/08. A long way to go but I don’t see how share prices can drop much further but I suppose they will find a way.
Comment by D — May 15, 2012 @ 9:36 am
I see stocks on the venture fall 10% without a single reason. We are nearing cash on hand = mcap, crazy. The venture is a joke.
Comment by Don — May 15, 2012 @ 9:42 am
All in fun my friends
BMR, brought forward 1300, Dave 720, Don 700, D. 684, Bert 001 & the loser today is BMR.
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 9:55 am
“Fear and Panic” has obviously reared it’s ugly head. I am seeing a lot of low volume cross trades on the bid slowly working down share price. Don’t forget, for every share sold, another share is bought by someone who is not in panic mode but is seeing opportunity somewhere down the road. IMO some of these shares are at give-a-way prices.The Venture will recover but for now the question is far down do we go first.
Comment by D — May 15, 2012 @ 10:05 am
Maybe the title of this website should be changed to bearmarketrun… I often wonder if Jon John and Terry already realize this or why they choose not to invest in anything they report on? Gold junior markets are brutal and keep getting worse, that said juniors are doing themselves no favour not meeting expectations either(GBB, CAN, OSK etc).
I wonder what the bottom will be. There are lots of stocks that have already been beat down big time. There will definitely be investment opportunities out there shortly, too bad I wasn’t bright enough to jump ship earlier…
Comment by Tyler — May 15, 2012 @ 10:15 am
BMR – let’s face it guys. You have been 101% wrong for months pounding the table about the bullish prospects for the venture and the juniors. I think it’s time you just stop making predictions about these stocks. Don’t you agree?
Comment by Don — May 15, 2012 @ 10:23 am
Venture in free fall now, over 3% down and Dow in the blue.
Talk about a joke for exchange tsx-v
Comment by Don — May 15, 2012 @ 10:48 am
Way too much doom and gloom here boys. Everyone is Peed off because they have lost money. My portfolio sucks right now and I have lost also, but the blame game has too long of a list so I only blame myself because I am the only one that has control over my decisions. Lets face it , if you cannot afford the loss than you shouldn’t be playing the game. Altough I don’t always agree with BMR, I see what they have to offer and then do my own DD. They are making an educated prediction on stocks not a guarantee slam dunk. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they don’t, but remember ths is a free service. I’m sure there are a lot of other analysts out there charging big bucks for their advice but not doing any better. Just my opinion for what its worth. There will be a silver lining in time. (I think !!!).
Comment by D — May 15, 2012 @ 10:52 am
D – that’s the right attitude! It’ll go lower but that’s part of the game. RBW, so far, is holding up very well, also GR, ASW and BSM:CNX, so all is not lost. 🙂
Comment by Andrew — May 15, 2012 @ 10:58 am
This is not about BMR, no doubt, they will admit to not being perfect, but who is. This all
started with the Banks in the U.S., & since, almost on a daily basis, the talking heads were/are
at their best. Now it’s about Greece & would you believe, i looked at a dozen Greece headlines
& not 2 were alike, writers were talking up a storm. It’s almost like we all live in the same city,
if a person in China blows wind, we can smell it in Newfoundland. Folks are scared & in most
cases have been spending cash they don’t have. Those of us, who have made a decision to stay in,
must have made it for a reason, that is, we believe the Vulture, i mean Venture will reverse & over
time, will move up again. Remember the egg salesman story, when he was told that his constant stream
of telegrams would not make the hens lay. I am down, so be it, but i am alive & able to converse
with you folks & for now, that comforts me. R !
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 11:18 am
Todays smile .When Barbra walters visited vietnam before the war she notice the woman walked ten feet behind their husbands.After the war they walked ten feet in front of their husbands she asked what brought about such a great change.The women answered LAND MINES
Comment by gil — May 15, 2012 @ 11:18 am
The Million Dollar Question: Is this Capitulation?
In answering this question I look to this post and may answer by saying I think so.
Comment by Andrew M — May 15, 2012 @ 11:22 am
One stock Iam doing ok on so far is bsm up over 40 percent in a few days .I beleive Andrew brought this stock to my attention also bmr mentioned it .thanks to ANDREW AND BMR ON THIS ONE
Comment by gil — May 15, 2012 @ 11:34 am
Finally, my prediction has come…. the large lot 8.5 cents being dumped. The big player is waiting for a big lot to dump and this will minimize their loss. Do not touch this stock guys? I may adjust my buy price to 6 cents now…… or even forget about GBB!
Comment by Theodore — May 15, 2012 @ 11:43 am
you guys should take a look at mgd on the cnx , this stock has big names in fiananced at 30c . 8 mill $ or so ..
look at the chart , it is strong and thight . Btw i remember comparing gbb.v to can. v .. I now think gbb. v is way better in all perspectives . can.v is a hot patato . guy.t too watch out
Comment by dude — May 15, 2012 @ 11:52 am
BSM is a great play. If they hit what they r expecting in Manitoba and get venture approval, 5c will be a steal
Comment by db — May 15, 2012 @ 4:21 pm
What goes down, must come up. We are at the bottom ladies and gentlemen.
mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=151465&sn=Detail&pid=102055
Comment by Dan — May 15, 2012 @ 4:22 pm
Well Theo, somebody bought today.
Company Name : Gold Bullion Development Corp. Last Updated: May 15, 2012
Date Symbol Insider
Buys
Volume Insider
Sells
Volume Insider
Buys
Value $ Insider
Sells
Value $ Insider
Buys
Transaction Insider
Sells
Transaction Currency
05/15/2012 GBB 100,000 0 8,500.00 0.00 2 0 CAD
Comment by Dan — May 15, 2012 @ 4:24 pm
Dan
Thank you for bringing forward post # 33, a good read & i agree with him 100%, in particular
the following :-
Quote
The fact that some of the biggest names in the business are telling investors to bail out.
What you hear on the radio, read in the newspapers & most of what you see on the web is not
news, it’s propaganda.
Comment by Bert — May 15, 2012 @ 4:45 pm
dan, that is not how gravity works. 🙂
Comment by Joey — May 15, 2012 @ 5:47 pm
Ladies and Gentlemen…. I regret to inform you that the world has ended … Dick Clark is not here to ring in the new year, Goldman Sachs is bust, and JPM is non-existent. we have riots in the streets, no food on the shelves, and newsletter writers telling us that there is a bottom.. somewhere…
but the public says not… only when it hits 000000…..
is this what we truly believe???? and truly understand???? and what is truly important…. life its self…. I forgave a 2400 loan this day because I believed in my heart that it was the right thing to do.. for his 2 kids.. 4 and 7 … who wouldnt…
money is the root of all stuff.. good and evil… manage it well… or it will destroy you … I learned that today…. I am still destroyed… but not killed.. if that makes ANY sense….
perspective my friends perspective… keep it fore front.. our kids will need it!
Comment by Jeremy — May 15, 2012 @ 7:42 pm
This guy is right alot of the time…
Traders: Prepare for More Money Printing
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
It’s going to happen…
When the Federal Reserve took its first steps down the road of debt monetization with the first quantitative easing program (QE1), we knew there were going to be more. QE2 followed QE1. QE lite – where the Fed promised to keep interest rates low until the end of 2014 – followed QE2. And now, QE3 is on the way…
It’s going to happen – as surely as we’ll see QE4, QE5, and on and on and on.
That’s the problem with reckless money printing. It’s like jumping into a swimming pool. You can’t ever “un-jump.”
So now it’s just a question of timing the announcement for maximum impact.
Think of it like President Obama’s announcement last week in support of gay marriage. We suspect he’s held this position all along. But announcing formal support just before a $40,000-per-plate Hollywood fundraiser stuffed an extra $15 million into his campaign coffers.
The Fed will design the announcement of QE3 the same way.
We’re going to keep printing money to buy up U.S. Treasury debt. Whether we call it quantitative easing, QE lite, or “stealing” from our grandchildren… it doesn’t matter. It’s going to happen anyway – no matter what happens in the stock market or in the economy.
But the Fed has to time the announcement to create the maximum financial impact.
There’s no benefit to announcing QE3 when stocks are rallying, economic statistics are improving, and the average person on the street is feeling like things are getting just a bit better. Why spoil the party by pointing out the shell game that caused the improvements? Besides, nobody wants to hear about bank bailouts, debt monetization, and currency devaluation when times are good.
It makes more sense to wait until stocks start to fall, economic statistics turn lower, and folks get that uneasy feeling in their guts again. Then we can tell them how quantitative easing made everything better.
It’s not hard for the drug dealer to convince the recovering heroin addict that the pain will go away after just one more hit. And it won’t be hard for the Fed to gain support of another quantitative easing program once the stock market gives up most of this year’s gains.
Stay ready to take advantage of a quick drop in the stock market. The Fed will announce the third round of quantitative easing at some point this year. My guess is it’ll take a move down to around 1,300 or so in the S&P 500 to bring it out.
I’m willing to start buying around 1,310.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Comment by Greg — May 15, 2012 @ 9:25 pm
look and learn
telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9268048/Regus-hit-by-shareholder-spring.html
Comment by Hugh — May 15, 2012 @ 11:29 pm