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The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

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July 30, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,616 and $1,624 an ounce so far today…as of 5:15 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $6 an ounce at $1,618 after last week’s $40 advance that took it through some important resistance including a down trendline that has been in place since March..Silver is off 13 cents at $27.66…Copper is 2 pennies lower at $3.41…Crude Oil is down 36 cents at $89.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up more than one-tenth of a point at 82.89…

Silver Chart Update Fasten Your Seat Belts!

For the past couple of weeks we’ve been stressing the historical opportunity in Silver with sentiment conditions opposite to what they were in the spring of 2011 when it completed a powerful “Wave 3” move to $50 an ounce…RSI(2), which we’ve been monitoring closely on a chart going back to 1998, has now reversed from the extreme 10 level (it has dropped to that level on only one other occasion over the last decade and that was during the 2008 Crash)…with such strong support at $26, we believe Silver could be in the beginning stages of a very bullish “Wave 5” move after a possibly just-completed “Wave 4″ corrective phase…”Wave 5” won’t be confirmed, however, until Silver closes above $32 an ounce….the key immediate challenge for Silver is to break above its EMA-50 which is basically where it closed at Friday…

We’ll be reviewing 10 Silver stock situations beginning tomorrow that we believe could perform exceptionally well in a bullish Silver environment through the balance of this quarter and beyond…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will deliver new measures to underpin their fragile economies…China’s Shanghai Index, however, slipped 18 points to finish at 2110, its lowest close since March 3, 2009…European shares are higher this morning to begin the new week while stock index futures in New York are pointing toward a slightly lower open on Wall Street…the Dow jumped 459 points or 3.6% over the last three trading sessions last week and finished Friday above 13,000 for the first time since May 3…

More Talk of Action To Prop Up The Euro Zone

The euro zone is at a decisive point and leaders will work with the European Central Bank (ECB) to demonstrate their commitment to the stability of the single currency, Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said in interviews with European newspapers yesterday…Juncker told Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung and France’s Le Figaro that leaders would decide in the next few days what measures to take to tackle Spanish bond yields which last week touched euro-era highs…they had “no time to lose”,  he said…asked whether it was true that France wanted the bailout fund to buy government bonds, under an agreement made by euro zone leaders at their summit in June, but that Germany was resisting, Juncker answered: “I have no doubt that we will implement the agreements of the last summit…we still need to decide what we will do when…that depends on the developments of the next days”…the European bailout fund (the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) will work together with the ECB without affecting its independence, he said…”We will work in close agreement with the ECB, and we will, as (ECB President) Mario Draghi said, see results…I don’t want to drive expectations, but I must say, we have reached a decisive phase”…

Fed, ECB Prepare For Action

Most Fed watchers do not expect the Fed to announce a new quantitative easing, or asset purchase program, Wednesday, but it could take smaller steps and lay the groundwork for something more bold a month later…a front page story in the Wall Street Journal early last week, written by ace reporter Jon Hilsenrath, was widely believed to be leaked from the Fed to prep the market for potential Fed policy actions by the beginning of September at the latest…the ECB, reported to be considering a range of actions, may take some steps at its meeting Thursday toward resolving the euro zone’s problems, but certainly not all the steps that will be necessary or that the market would like to see right away – these things take time…there were news reports Friday that ECB President Mario Draghi was discussing a rate cut, a new liquidity program, and a plan to give a banking license to its bailout fund (European Stabilization Mechanism)…

Also This Week…

About a fifth of the S&P 500 500 and General Motors, AIG, Procter and Gamble, Kraft, Time Warner, Berkshire Hathaway and MasterCard are among the companies reporting second quarter earnings…auto makers report monthly sales Wednesday, chain stores report their July Sales Thursday, and this month’s all-important U.S. jobs number comes out Friday…

Venture Exchange – Close To A Breakout

It’s an important week for the CDNX which is on the verge of finally breaking through its daily EMA-20 which has provided stiff resistance since March…it’s critical for the Venture to clear this area in order for a real uptrend to finally begin and gain traction…as shown in John’s chart, the EMA-20 currently sits at 1193, just two points above where the Index closed Friday…RSI(14) is rapidly closing in on resistance and a convincing move through 50 would be very bullish…there has been a significant change in CDNX buying pressure in recent sessions, a sign that this time the Index will leave the EMA-20 behind in the dust…

Bullish Canadian Dollar Bodes Well For Venture Breakout

The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar continues to gain momentum which supports the argument that the Venture Exchange is gearing up for a significant upside move…of particular note is the fact that the Dollar’s 200-day moving average (SMA) has recently reversed to the upside – the last two times such a reversal occurred came in early 2007 and mid-2009…this is problematic for commodity bears as this kind of strength in the Dollar would not be occurring in an environment in which commodity prices were ready to tank…


One Of The Greatest PM Stock Buying Opportunities Of All Times

Technical analyst Clive Maund (www.CliveMaund.com) is calling it, “One of the greatest PM stock buying opportunities of all time“…Maund’s article, posted yesterday, is a powerful piece utilizing half a dozen charts…his site is worth subscribing to, so with that plug we don’t think he’ll mind if quote two sentences from his article pertaining to a 4-year chart he posted for the Gold Miners Bullish % Index…the chart “reveals that sentiment towards Gold stocks is still at abysmally low levels, at its lowest – and close to –  the 2008 market crash trough…and a crash is looking less likely now that we can hear the money pumps gurgling as they are primed for ‘the big one’…this chart shows that the sheep have now flocked together down at the other end of the field, the bearish end, and if they don’t get away from there fast they are going to be dragged into the fleecing shed and giving a right going over once again”…

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V)

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) was halted at 5:07 am Pacific, pending news…so this could be a very interesting day…

Everton Resources (EVR, TSX-V)

As our readers are well aware, the Dominican Republic is a geological hot-spot and GoldQuest Mining’s (GQC, TSX-V) Romero discovery has only reinforced that…Unigold Inc. (UGD, TSX-V) is making excellent progress as well at its Candelones Project to the north of Romero…on Saturday, we spoke with Everton Resources‘ President and CEO Andre Audet whose company holds a large land position immediately adjacent to the massive Pueblo-Viejo deposit (Barrick/Goldcorp) which is scheduled to go into production next month…there’s no question Everton is going to benefit from the success of GoldQuest and Unigold, and what we see unfolding for EVR is a joint-venture deal(s) – possibly with a major – that will allow for exploration and drilling to resume on its promising land package…just a dozen holes have been drilled at EVR’s APV Property next to Pueblo-Viejo – only anomalous results were returned (albeit some of them encouraging), but 90% of that property is still wide open…accumulation has been occurring in the stock which was up a penny Friday on one of the highest volume days of the year (nearly 700,000 shares, all exchanges)…as John shows below, the chart is starting to show some strength after a long decline that appears to have ended at a nickel…

Our interview with Everton’s Audet will be posted in the coming days…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Seafield reported a strong infill hole result this morning from its Miraflores deposit in Colombia – 161.15 metres grading 3.23 g/t Au including 60 metres of 5.48 g/t Au (the longer intersection, from 183 to 345.15 metres’ depth, featured several high-grade 2-metre samples including 23.35 g/ Au, 31.85 g/t Au, 21.8 g.t Au, and 56.73 g/t Au)…the hole continues to confirm the continuity and geometry of high-grade mineralization in the veins and matrix inside the breccia…the deposit currently hosts a NI 43-101 compliant measured and indicated resource of 77.8 million tonnes averaging 0.8 g/t Au for contained Gold of 1.9 million ounces and an inferred resource of 5.5 million tonnes averaging 0.6 g/t Au for 103,043 ounces of contained Gold, using a 0.3 g/t Au cut-off grade…

Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI, TSX)

Producer Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI, TSX) appears to have formed a double bottom on the charts and has significant upside potential should Gold continue to move higher this quarter…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John…


Note: Jon and John do not hold positions in EVR, SFF or KGI.  Terry holds a position in SFF.


12 Comments

  1. John, thanks for the Everton chart. Am looking forward to the interview.

    Comment by George Wohanka — July 30, 2012 @ 5:00 am

  2. Terry, thank you for your response. But I did a long post Friday night and again Sunday on who I was and what I did for a living. I stated how I invest and see things and anticipate the between the lines type scenerios and talked about AIX. Those have not shown up yet?

    Comment by dave — July 30, 2012 @ 7:12 am

  3. Sorry, Dave, will re-check. Some posts simply didn’t get uploaded Friday due to some technical and other issues as I explained, though Saturday and Sunday should have been OK. Will look into it and fix.

    Comment by Terry - BMR — July 30, 2012 @ 7:19 am

  4. Had a look, Dave – those posts you’re referring to haven’t come through to us, perhaps there was a glitch on your end, perhaps, I’m not sure. Try sending them again if you can and we’ll be happy to upload them.

    Comment by Terry - BMR — July 30, 2012 @ 7:25 am

  5. Thanks Terry.

    Comment by dave — July 30, 2012 @ 7:43 am

  6. Just thinking about the GQC halt……after my talk with Audet Saturday, he made it clear that majors are expressing a serious interest in the DR….so if majors have been in contact with EVR recently, the same obviously must hold true with GQC…..I’m just speculating but it’s possible GQC may have some sort of a deal, that this halt may not be about assay results at all….we’ll have to wait and see…..I doubt we’ll see anything until after the market closes.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — July 30, 2012 @ 7:55 am

  7. Jon

    Although i sold GQC too early, i bought in again & now have an interest in the halt.
    I think you are correct in assuming the NR may not be about results, otherwise the
    results would be out by now. Whatever, good or bad, we can’t trade until it opens up. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 30, 2012 @ 8:08 am

  8. Thx Jon…. is there a possibility of u making a call to them since you have talked with them b4..??? if the stock is halted then they shouldnt have any issue in releasing a bud of info yes????

    Comment by Jeremy — July 30, 2012 @ 8:39 am

  9. A interesting stock to watch is bgm they came out with a a number of ounces of gold in the ground that was to good for the market to believe it is extremely cheap if the numbers hold. they will restate the numbers by the 15 of aug This stock could soar if the numbers hold.It is valued now with a resource of about 2 million ounces of gold in the ground not 10 million.I hold a postion in this stock

    Comment by gil — July 30, 2012 @ 8:58 am

  10. They’re being EXTREMELY tight-lipped today from what I’ve heard, and this is a classy group that wouldn’t let information slip to anyone….in my speculation regarding a potential deal, I’m putting 2 and 2 together, especially after my conversation with Audet Saturday…that’s my instinct….I could be wrong but whatever it is, my gut is telling me it’s big….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — July 30, 2012 @ 9:40 am

  11. news out boys and girls … monster holes…..

    Comment by Jeremy — July 30, 2012 @ 10:26 am

  12. Last minute call…. Buy RBW or watch the show! Your choice ! Of course, if you are holding a portfolio, you will watch the show. You may not want to sell now or even on the Seller list! At least not on 19 cents….

    Comment by Theodore — July 30, 2012 @ 12:05 pm

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