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October 4, 2013

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a tight range so far today after a volatile week…as of 7:15 am Pacific, bullion is down $7 an ounce at $1,310…Silver is off 11 cents at $21.59..Copper is up 3 cents at $3.28…Crude Oil is 45 cents higher at $103.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index has recovered one-fifth of a point to 79.97…

House Republicans started a meeting at 7:00 am Pacific in Washington on this 4th day of the partial U.S. government shutdown (which means no jobs report today)…Speaker John Boehner is reportedly trying to unite Republicans around a plan to end the “slimdown”, raise the debt ceiling and achieve as many of the party’s top priorities as possible but most of his 232 caucus members can’t seem to agree on how to do that…Boehner has been telling Republicans that he won’t allow the U.S. to default on its debt, even if that requires Democratic votes, according to 2 Republican congressional aides…last month, Boehner outlined a debt-limit increase strategy that also included lighter regulations, cuts in entitlement programs and approval of the Keystone XL pipeline…

As unpopular as Congress might be at this time (or at anytime), there are many Republicans who believe the public is on their side in taking a hard stand on the debt ceiling – and they appear to be right…6 out of 10 Americans say “it is right to require spending cuts when the debt ceiling is raised, even if it risks default,” according to a September 26 Bloomberg poll…only 28% say “the debt ceiling should be raised when necessary, with no conditions.”

The U.S. will run out of borrowing authority October 17 and will have $30 billion in cash after that…the country would be unable to pay all of its bills, including benefits, salaries and interest, sometime between Oct. 22 and Oct. 31, according to the Congressional Budget Office…

Today’s Markets

Japan’s Nikkei average slipped 133 points overnight to close at 14024, a 5% loss for the week…Chinese markets resume Monday following the National Day holidays…European shares are up modestly in late trading overseas…

The Dow, after losing ground in 9 out of the last 11 sessions, has added 44 points through the first 45 minutes of trading…4 Federal Reserve officials are giving speeches today, so the market will be paying attention to what they have to say especially given the current situation in Washington…the TSX has gained 41 points while the Venture is up 3 points at 947…

TSX Chart Update

The biggest challenge for the TSX over the past couple of years has been to push above stiff resistance around 12900…several failed attempts have occurred, but perhaps this quarter the Index can overcome that hurdle..for over a year now, the TSX has traded in a 1200 point range between 11759 and last month’s high of 12965…yesterday, it closed 12 points above its rising 50-day SMA…RSI(14), currently at 55% on this 2-year weekly chart, needs to push through resistance at 60%…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) Update

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) has commenced production at its Monique Mine, an open-pit operation 25 km east of Val-d’Or…Monique is expected to produce 4,500 ounces of commercial Gold production for RIC during this 4th quarter…the addition of 22,500 tonnes per month from this asset will translate into efficiency improvements and lower unit cost levels at the company’s Camflo Mill, which is currently operating at full capacity with material from Beaufor, the W Zone and Monique operations…the key to Richmont’s turnaround, however, will be its producing Island Gold Mine in Ontario where the company is outlining additional resources (high-grade) at depth…as John pointed out in a recent chart, RIC appears to have formed a double bottom and could be headed for a much better 2014…

North American Nickel Inc. (NAN, TSX-V)

We continue to keep a close eye on North American Nickel (NAN, TSX-V) which has made a discovery at its 100% owned Maniitsoq Project in Greenland (Nickel, Copper, Cobalt, PGM) with assays pending…a couple of days ago, the company announced that the Sentient Group has exercised 18,276,199 common share purchase warrants at a price of 21 cents per unit which adds almost another $4 million to NAN’s treasury…Sentinent now owns about 55 million NAN shares, representing approximately 39% of the 140,456,085 total NAN shares currently outstanding…

Technically, NAN has been following a very predictable pattern and found important support last week just above 30 cents…it closed yesterday up 4 cents at 42 cents…below is an updated 2.5-year weekly chart from John…as of 7:15 am Pacific, NAN is off half a penny at 41.5 cents…

Zenyatta Ventures Ltd. (ZEN, TSX-V) Chart Update

Some of the shine has come off Zenyatta Ventures (ZEN, TSX-V) recently with the stock plunging 21% so far in October after a 19% decline in September…yesterday, ZEN closed at its still-rising 200-day moving average (SMA) at $2.50 where there should be strong technical support…this is also in the immediate vicinity of an important Fibonacci retracement level ($2.45) as shown in John’s 6-month daily chart…RSI(14) has fallen to 25%, the lowest we’ve seen it since ZEN began its big run in the summer of last year…warning signs were flashing in July when very technically overbought conditions had emerged in ZEN, along with an RSI(14) negative divergence with price…critical support for ZEN is between $2.00 and $2.50…near-term resistance is around the $3 level…through the first 45 minutes of trading today, ZEN is up a penny at $2.51…

Macro Enterprises Ltd. (MCR, TSX-V) Updated Chart

Macro Enterprises Ltd. (MCR, TSX-V) has advanced for 5 consecutive trading sessions, and has doubled in value since we introduced the company to our readers just over 4 months ago…MCR is a construction and maintenance service provider to the energy and resource industries, and has reported net earnings per share of 61 cents through the first 2 quarters (ending June 30) of this fiscal year…it’s rare to find a Venture company that’s actually making money – and significant amounts of it – which is what initially drew our attention to MCR

John’s 1-year weekly chart shows the stock has remained in high RSI(14) territory for most of the 12 months – a situation that sooner or later will have to correct itself…taking some profits off the table, therefore, would appear to be a wise move from our perspective…MCR is off a penny at $5.99 as of 7:15 am Pacific…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in RIC, NAN, ZEN or MCR.

9 Comments

  1. JOHN: do you think CCB’s correction is completed itself today? low 19 today….

    Comment by STEVEN — October 4, 2013 @ 6:28 am

  2. John can correct me if I’m wrong but I believe his most recent CCB chart showed strong support between 20 and 25 cents…perhaps a “hammer reversal” in the works today?…we’ll see what happens…this has been a volatile play, not for the timid or the faint of heart, but buying on these sharp pullbacks has proven to be a successful trading strategy…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 4, 2013 @ 6:36 am

  3. Cannadian Mining Journal write up on Richmont Mines; canadianminingjournal.com/news/richmont-mines-producing-gold-from-mines-in-two-provinces/1002634441/

    Comment by Alexandre — October 4, 2013 @ 6:57 am

  4. Jon – when will you be releasing the interview with GGI CEO?

    Thanks

    Comment by Dan — October 4, 2013 @ 7:31 am

  5. It was a fascinating interview, Dan, which we’ve been going thru since late yesterday. Steve’s comments will be extremely helpful to everyone in terms of their DD and sizing up this opportunity. We’ll be sending out an eAlert regarding this over the weekend with the first interview excerpts Monday.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 4, 2013 @ 7:53 am

  6. Jon

    I see back on the 27th you owned NAN stock and as of this morning you do not, what caused you to sell, is there something about NAN that you do not like, why would you sell before they release the last drilling results?

    thanks

    Comment by Greg — October 4, 2013 @ 8:29 am

  7. Jon. Thoughts on Ugd please. Thanks. odin

    Comment by odin1 — October 4, 2013 @ 8:49 am

  8. Just a trading thing, Greg, with regard to NAN. Locked in some profits, reloading. I’m getting back in.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 4, 2013 @ 9:01 am

  9. Thanks Jon

    Comment by Greg — October 4, 2013 @ 9:28 am

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