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Gold has traded between $1,194 and $1,210 so far today…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,197…Silver has slipped a nickel to $16.25…Copper is up 3 pennies to $2.73…Crude Oil has retreated 77 cents to $55.62 after hitting a high today of $56.54, while the U.S. Dollar Index has slid half a point to 97.85…data yesterday that showed U.S. industrial output in March posted its biggest drop in more than two-and-a-half years was certainly dollar negative, and yet another sign that the Fed may have to wait until at least September before raising interest rates…

Gold bulls can draw encouragement from an ETF Securities report on precious metals for Q1 issued Tuesday…Mike McGlone, head of U.S. research at ETF Securities, wrote that Gold could surprise to the upside this year if indeed the greenback topped out in mid-March on interest rate expectations…he noted in the report that the correlation between Gold and fed funds futures is near historical highs…

“The Fed appears to have relatively little actual inflation ammunition to pull the trigger on rate hikes,” he said in an interview with Kitco News.   “If things keep going the way they are, it will be clear that the Fed won’t be able to hike rates…investors should be prepared for the potential volatility a Fed misfire might have on financial markets…the ECB misfired in 2011 and is now focused on quantitative easing…the risk of a Fed rate hike misfire is quite high,” he stated.

While McGlone is bullish on Gold in the current environment, he is even more positive on Silver…in the report he noted that Silver gained 6% in U.S. dollar terms in the 1st quarter…but even despite these gains, McGlone said Silver still looks relatively undervalued, and that current prices should continue to entice increasing demand for one of the best conductors of electricity…

Fed’s Fischer:  Economic Rebound Underway

Although the first quarter of the year was “poor”, an economic rebound is already underway in the U.S., according to Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer…the central banker acknowledged in an interview with CNBC today that most expect the Fed to raise interest rates sometime this year, but he attempted to assure markets that such a move would be incremental and steady…

“We expect that the markets look ahead somewhat, so I think – I hope – that they are taking into account that the Fed, at some point, is likely to raise the interest rate,” he said, adding that markets “can’t depend on the current situation continuing forever – or even probably – beyond the end of this year.”

The Federal Reserve says the U.S. economy was growing at a moderate pace from mid-February through the end of March, although the harsh winter, a strengthening greenback and weak Oil prices were having adverse effects on some industries…in its latest survey of business conditions around the country, the Fed says that 8 of its 12 banking regions described the economy as growing at either a moderate or modest pace with 2 others –  Atlanta and Kansas City – describing conditions as steady…the report said that demand for manufactured goods was mixed with the strong dollar affecting exports…the information included in the report will be used by Fed policymakers when they next meet on April 28–29…

Oil Update

The odds of a final nuclear agreement between Iran, the U.S. and other world powers continue to diminish every time Iranian President Hasan Rouhani speaks about the issue…yesterday, he accused the U.S. Congress of meddling in sensitive negotiations…

“What the U.S. Senate says, or what the U.S. House of Representatives want, or what the extremists in the U.S. are looking for, or what the U.S. mercenaries in the region say, it doesn’t have anything to do with our government or our people,” he said in a speech aired on state television yesterday…

Oh, really, Mr. Rouhani?…the U.S. Congress imposed sanctions on Iran and has an obligation, which it will carry out, to intensely review any nuclear agreement…

Iranian leaders keep insisting that international sanctions must be removed immediately upon completion of an agreement that would place limits on the country’s nuclear activities…

OPEC Sees U.S. Oil Production Declining During Second Half Of 2015

The booming growth in U.S. Oil supplies will end in 2015, OPEC said today, citing a significant cutback in the number of drilling rigs…in its closely watched monthly market report, OPEC said U.S. Oil supplies would grow to about 13.65 million barrels a day in this current quarter before leveling off and then beginning a slow decline during the 2nd half of the year…meanwhile, OPEC said demand for its own Crude would rise slightly to about 29.3 million barrels a day, while demand for non-OPEC supplies would fall by about 165,000 barrels a day…

TSX Gold Index Update

Like the Venture, the TSX Gold Index is at a critical point…it’s pushing up against resistance, and the next several trading sessions should prove critical…

The Gold Index is now battling the 50% Fib. level on the 6-month daily chart below (based on trading as of 7:42 am Pacific today)…just 3 points above Fib. resistance, at 169, is the declining 50-day moving average (SMA)…buy pressure (CMF) is slowly increasing, the SS indicator shows momentum, while RSI(14) has formed a bullish “W” and could accelerate after crossing the 50% level…

For the Gold Index to pick up steam, bullion will have to get back above $1,200 and start pushing higher – that’s certainly a distinct possibility if the Dollar Index retreats further after possibly forming at least a temporary double top…tomorrow’s weekly close for Gold will be important…

The Gold Index was as high as 168 in early trading today but is now off 2 points at 165 as of 9:00 am Pacific…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite roared nearly 3% higher overnight, climbing 110 points to close at another 7-year high of 4195…

Europe

European markets were down significantly today after mixed Q1 earnings reports and as Greece’s economic outlook deteriorated further…

North America

The Dow has rebounded modestly after falling as low as 18064 this morning…as of 9:00 am Pacific, it’s off just 18 points at 18095…

In Toronto, the TSX is off 89 points as of 9:00 am Pacific, while the Venture touched resistance at 707 and is now down 1 point at 704…patience is key…a breakout above 707 certainly appears to be in the works…

TSX Updated Chart

The current pattern in the TSX remains highly promising given the inverted head and shoulders with a bullish ascending triangle…a confirmed breakout above the neckline, which the Index is grappling with now, could ultimately send the TSX to significantly higher levels – at least 16750…it’s hard to imagine that happening without some strength in certain commodities…

Sheslay Fireworks On The Way?

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Update

As Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) continues to advance an important high-grade discovery in central Sonora State, with a follow-up round of drilling also commencing at La Patilla, the company has been carefully positioning itself for the highest possibility of a 1st hole “strike” at the Grizzly Project in the Sheslay district…rest assured, a discovery on Garibaldi’s ground – combined with the increasing success Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) is enjoying at the advanced Hat Project – could generate a wave of fresh interest in this emerging district that could dwarf that witnessed during the early part of 2014…more on this in the coming days…

In the meantime, John’s updated GGI chart shows an interesting “hammer” this week with the stock finding support at the bottom of a bullish downsloping wedge…readers should keep in mind, GGI tripled in value in just 2 months from December 2013 to February 2014 on the first big wave of interest in the Sheslay district…

The second wave, we believe, is just around the corner…

Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V) Update

Doubleview Capital’s (DBV, TSX-V) hole #23 has an excellent chance of producing breakthrough results for the Hat and the Sheslay district as a whole, and assays from the remainder of H-23 are expected in the near future…the hole hit at least 3 zones of higher-grade Cu and Au porphyry mineralization…in addition, a much broader geological understanding of the Hat has developed over the past several months, especially since the addition of Pat McAndless as a technical adviser and Dr. Abdul Razique as the company’s senior geoscientist who was previously with Antofagasta….

If the Lisle zone is indeed just the southeastern tip of the Hat deposit, then this fundamentally changes the dynamics for the Hat – and the entire district for that matter…

Technically, DBV has been consolidating within a downsloping flag since last year…based on the improving fundamentals at the Hat, we see a growing likelihood of a near-term breakout above this flag…key resistance is 15 cents – a Fib. level and the 200-day moving average (SMA) on this 3-year weekly chart…

Foran Mining Corp. (FOM, TSX-V)

Readers may wish to perform their due diligence on Foran Mining Corp. (FOM, TSX-V) which has come to life since early March…the company’s flagship asset is the McIlvenna Bay deposit (a large Zinc-Copper-Gold-Silver VMS system) located in east central Saskatchewan, 65 km west of Flin Flon…the legendary Peter Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada (FNV, TSX), holds more than 10% of FOM after increasing his personal holdings last year…

McIlvenna Bay is one of the largest undeveloped VMS deposits in Canada, with indicated resources of 13.9 Mt grading 1.96% CuEq and inferred resources of 11.3 Mt grading 2.01% CuEq…late last year, Foran announced a positive PEA for McIlvenna Bay, with a pre-tax NPV of $382 million and an IRR of 22% (post-tax $263 million and 19%)…

Meanwhile, 2 weeks ago, the company reported high-grade results from the first of 6 winter holes drilled at its Bigstone deposit approximately 25 km southwest of McIlvenna Bay…BS-15–240 included 18.4% Zinc over 11.78 m (339 m to 350.78 m) from the Zinc zone, followed further downhole by separate intervals of 1.4% Copper over 10.59 m and 1.3% Cu over 8.47 m from the underlying Copper zone…

Technically, FOM has excellent possibilities as 2015 progresses, though a better entry point than yesterday’s 38-cent close is quite possible in the event of a pullback to cleanse temporarily overbought conditions…keep in mind, as well, that 6.4 million flow-through shares from a December financing (the company is in a strong cash position) are now free-trading…

FOM is off a penny-and-a-half at 36.5 cents as of 9:00 am Pacific…

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI and DBV.