Gold has traded between $1,099 and $1,110 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $9 an ounce at $1,107…key resistance is $1,109…if it busts through that level, shorts will start scrambling again…Silver is up 24 cents at $14.24…Copper has added a penny to $2.01…Crude Oil has retreated more than $1.50 a barrel to $30.61 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-tenth of a point at 99.43…
Markets this week will be focusing on corporate earnings, a slew of U.S. economic data and of course the FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow and concludes Wednesday with an updated policy statement (no Janet Yellen news conference after this meeting)…in an overnight research note, Commerzbank pointed out that the Federal funds futures were factoring in only a 27% chance of a rate hike in March…Barclays says “investors will be looking for a more dovish forward bias as the renewed decline in Oil prices lowers inflation expectations globally”…BNP Paribas looks for a “balanced” policy statement…
Hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in COMEX Gold in the week ending January 19, and boosted their positive bets in Silver to the highest in more than 2 months according to Friday’s release of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data…
Iraq’s Oil ministry told Reuters today that Oil output had reached a record high in December…its fields in the central and southern region produced as much as 4.13 million barrels a day, the government said, adding to oversupply concerns…
Oil-Stock Market Correlation
Brent Crude and the S&P 500 have exhibited the tightest correlation over the last month than in any comparable period over the last 26 years, according to data from both benchmarks examined by The Wall Street Journal…how Oil and stock markets are moving in lockstep highlights intensifying fears about global economic growth…
The Stunning Oil-Gold Ratio
What should one discern from the record ratio recently between Crude Oil and Gold?…last week, the number of barrels of Oil that a single ounce of Gold could buy was never higher – more than 37, vs. the long-time average of 17…historically, an elevated ratio of how many barrels of Oil an ounce of Gold can procure has often preceded rocky times in global financial markets, brought on by “Black Swan” events…
We know what the problems are in Oil, and they’re likely not going to go away anytime soon – supply and demand need to come into balance and right now there’s a glut on the world market…the Saudis and their Gulf allies are more than content to ride out the storm and, for various strategic reasons, have been a contributing factor in driving the price down…
Other commodities have taken a major beating as well with the CRB Index dropping in half in less than 18 months…
Gold, however, is holding up and is the best-performing asset so far in 2016…another way to look at the Oil-Gold ratio is that bullion has just experienced a stunning and historic 70-year breakout that may have quite a bit further to go…the market is embracing Gold for a reason at this particular time…
Some may argue that the ratio will resolve itself largely via a rally in Oil from here (Gold typically rallies with Oil, although it could do so at a slower pace), but the current demand-supply dynamics for Oil may not improve significantly until the 2nd half of 2016…an all-out war in the Middle East would certainly be a game-changer for Crude prices…it’s a possibility but one the market isn’t betting on at the moment (perhaps it should be)…
Below is a 36-year chart comparing Gold with Oil…significantly, bullion’s relative performance vs. Oil (look at the bottom of this chart) picked up dramatically during the 2008 financial crisis and has since accelerated…that’s a very different pattern from the previous 20 years…
In today’s Morning Musings…
1. Canasil Resources (CLZ, TSX) and Orex Minerals (REX, TSX-V) drill into high-grade Silver at Sandra Escobar Project in Durango, Mexico…
2. Updated charts for Silver…
3. Another look “under the hood” of the Dow reveals a series of problems…
Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…
Ggi – doesn’t look that any volume (interest) from the Cambridge show. Can anyone confirm whether they were at the show in one form or another?
Comment by weatheritout — January 25, 2016 @ 10:33 am
DBV – To those interested, here are some of the things discussed in the conference call with Farshad on January 14th 2016 :
• They have about 200,000$ worth of drilling material right on the property.
• They found a 75m trench 350m south of H-24. A soil sample at the bottom of the trench showed that it is mineralized right on the surface, which should have a huge effect on the evaluation of the project.
• About 50m of the bottom of H-25 couldn’t be cut and sent to the lab because of the cold weather which caused the machines to break.
• H-24 and H-25 passed the visual test, meaning they saw mineralization of chalcopyrite in both of them. Their significance regarding grades are still unknown, but they are significant in the sense that they are part of a system which is 1km away from the Lisle Zone. Everyone at DBV currently believe they are part of the same system as the Lisle Zone, which would make it’s length at least 1.5km.
• Other future targets : North of H-23, between H-6 and H-24 (infill), between H-6 and H-12 (infill). Infill drillings intend to prove the systems are connected.
• Farshad says they don’t need money for drilling, though he can’t disclose how they’re gonna do it at the moment. Say they’re gonna go drilling without financing and no debt.
• Currently working on arrangements that can be game changers. Substantial cost savers for the drilling project at the Hat. Says it could bring the drilling costs down by 80%. Says 99% is done already. He’s hoping to disclose in in the next 2 weeks through NR.
• Planning to accelerate drilling by adding a new rig on-site. Says he’s in a position to do it, without needing to do a financing.
• Planning to do 30 to 40 holes in the next 4-5 months, with the intention of putting together datas about volume with the ultimate goal of doing a ressource calculation.
• Short-plan for drilling is dependant on the weather. Hoping to get moving at the beginning of February.
• Expecting to do a 43-101 at the end of the year.
• Metal content in the deposit : Gold is first, Copper is huge, Silver is there, no Molybdenum, a little Cobalt, no Nickel.
• Are not planning on issuing new shares at the moment.
• Farshad has 14.5M shares.
• Dr. Razique is back in DBV. Moved to GGI for just a few days because they needed someone and he needed money.
• Expecting a few news releases even before the drilling starts, which are going to be material. Once they get drilling, expecting NR every 2 to 3 weeks.
• Results turnaround is 3 weeks unrushed, and 2 weeks rushed.
Comment by NickB — January 25, 2016 @ 11:28 am
GGI – I hope the news release and assays were well worth this wait and the extra lab testing that they had to do.
Comment by 02charoc — January 25, 2016 @ 12:24 pm
I hope so too 02charoc. Fall has come and gone…Christmas…New Years…and now the Cambridge show. I would have never guessed that it would take this long. I’m going to start checking in once a week. Hopefully we have them by spring.
Comment by weatheritout — January 25, 2016 @ 1:16 pm
3 weeks unrushed and 2 weeks rushed. Kind of makes you wonder what happened to the GGI results. It has been 3 weeks since we heard a rumor that hole 3 had to undergo further assay analysis. Time for GGI to light a fire under the labs ass.
Comment by Dan1 — January 25, 2016 @ 1:19 pm
Re: Post #2
Thanks Nick
That’s one fantastic update
Very exciting that they appear to have found their starter pit.
News every three weeks should keep the pedal to the medal on the stock price once the news flow resumes.
80% reduction in drilling costs & a extra drill rig you say? Outstanding!!!
Comment by Blue beryl — January 25, 2016 @ 1:49 pm
March 5th will be a year since GGI released any assay results, I think we can all agree it’s time to let the grizzly out of its cage.and of course Mexico…..
Comment by Tombc — January 25, 2016 @ 2:04 pm
BLO info
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3831176-cannabix-marijuana-breathalyzer-accuracy-game-changer?auth_param=18nos0:1baca3a:91ce0fd9daab9f356d6000975b9bed8e&uprof=46&dr=1#alt1
wondering if this is scam material
Comment by Jeremy — January 25, 2016 @ 2:12 pm
DBV – hmm – the only way I know of to drill w/o paying for it is to take on a partner with cash for a percentage of the project and keep control rights over the program.
Comment by david — January 25, 2016 @ 2:19 pm
Thanks for the info NickB!
Comment by jasi — January 25, 2016 @ 2:20 pm
Thanks Nick for the DBV call summary
Comment by Foz1971 — January 25, 2016 @ 2:22 pm
Canasil started drilling Dec 10th. Reports results of first hole January 25th. 45 days after drilling started. GGI had hole # 3 drilled on November 10th as they reported the description of it. The black unit was above ground then. Fast forward 75 days later and still no results. If they re-assayed 3 times the results should have been back by now.
Comment by Dan1 — January 25, 2016 @ 2:45 pm
GGI is known to let investors wait for results. It was the same last year with the Rodadero results.
Comment by Silversem — January 25, 2016 @ 2:51 pm
Re: Post #2
Farshad is a genius if he can pull all this off without diluting
Jmo
Thanks nick
Comment by Blue beryl — January 25, 2016 @ 3:36 pm
Some CEO’s are content to plug a few holes…collect their $120000/year….not ruffle to many feathers. Keep people believing the dream but just enough to keep the story going. I hope GGI doesn’t end up in this group but really…even myself I’m staying to lose interest. I was pumped in the fall time…news release , after news release…and then they just dropped off the radar. Even if results are good I’m debating whether I feel like sticking it out with them. Sooo slow. Looking in past years of news releases it is the same. Anyways, it is what it is, just have to decide whether I want to stick it out with GGI.
Comment by weatheritout — January 25, 2016 @ 4:17 pm
Thanks Nickb, great update. Is the conference call archived somewhere? I’d like to listen to it if possible.
Comment by Tom UK — January 25, 2016 @ 4:20 pm
Great post NickB , a job well done . This brings everyone up to speed on what DBV has in the works . Interestingly Dr. Razique ( the Antofagasta connection ) giving GGI some guidance or advice . The CD incident has definitely set DBV back months but Farshad has put the project back on track and he needs a pat on the back .
Comment by Les — January 25, 2016 @ 4:20 pm
Thanks NickB…30-40 holes in the next 4-5 months wow!!
Comment by Sameer — January 25, 2016 @ 4:27 pm
Jon, aren’t you a little frustrated that GGI hasn’t released not even one drill result from Grizzly since drilling started late October? You got to admit it is longer than it should take. I guess your dream of results just prior to the Cambridge show is out the window. I knew when they updated the fact sheet we wouldn’t see results during the show. That’s their way of saying a little while yet. I base that on previous updates via the presentation. To me it would have been worth paying for rush results. At least they would be drilling again already. Time is money.
Comment by Dan1 — January 25, 2016 @ 5:09 pm
BLO – heard from Raj .. he is disappointed with the markets and will have an update as soon as they can… at least he responded…
Comment by Jeremy — January 25, 2016 @ 5:25 pm
Dan1, to answer your question, no, I am not (Cambridge is over today, but Roundup in Vancouver just started and continues through Thursday by the way).
It takes a lot to get me frustrated, and that’s an emotion I’ve learned that I’m better off without – especially as an investor. That’s why I hung in with WRR, and I’m glad I did. The most important thing for GGI is to get all the info they need from the lab, and then come out powerfully with the news – when they’re ready and they have everything right. All indications are they’ve made a significant discovery. That’s mission #1 accomplished. Part 2, and this is equally critical and it’s where a lot of companies fail on a discovery, once a company receives all its data, it needs to pull everything together and present to shareholders and investors in the most effective/powerful way possible. What might actually frustrate me with GGI is if they dropped the ball on Part 2, but knowing Regoci I doubt he would allow that. Yes, in some ways it would have been nice for GGI to report just before Cambridge but it’s not an issue with me one way or the other. Besides, I did see Regoci there today (didn’t speak with him, just saw him), so he was obviously making the rounds to get as many eyes on the stock as possible ahead of the news. That’s a smart ex-broker laying the groundwork and planting seeds for the harvest.
When it comes to paying the lab more money for “rush” results, be very careful. Because that’s sometimes what you get – a “rushed” job that isn’t done properly. It’s bad enough right now with the labs because many investors forget that they’re hurting, too, because of the industry downturn, and a lot of very qualified people have been laid off or have left the business. I’ve heard some horror stories form CEO’s with regard to labs recently.
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2016 @ 6:09 pm
Thanks-Nick. Awesome info!!
Comment by GregJ. — January 25, 2016 @ 6:19 pm
Please Jon…seriously…you saw him off in the distance increasing shareholder value? I’ve got to call you on that one because of he was just wandering around within the crowds I hardly call that increasing shareholder value. Having the results set to go, renting a room to present to investors and having a presentation…that’s increasing shareholder value.
Comment by weatheritout — January 25, 2016 @ 6:42 pm
I just stated a fact, weatheritout – I saw him at the show. I also didn’t say he was “wandering around within the crowds.” Those are your words and your assumption. He wasn’t, actually. If they don’t have a booth at Cambridge, most CEO’s worth their salt will line up a series of meetings with some key individuals or small groups. There are a lot of important people in town right now.
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2016 @ 6:57 pm
I don’t know…just doesn’t seem to add up with GGI. On the cusp of a significant discovery yet it trades hardly any volume. Assays that seem to take forever are very seldom stellar results. Good news travels fast which doesn’t seem to be happening with GGI. It’s not adding up to a major discovery. I haven’t sold a share and I will be the first one to eat crow if these results are fantastic and the market sees them as such. Just feels lackluster.
Comment by weatheritout — January 25, 2016 @ 7:43 pm
Heard from Raj – BLO again.. this is unprecedented!!!! they are communicating … he knows about the Alpha link, and he said they plan on being louder!:)
we will see but thats a wrap folks…
DAVE>>>>>>> whats your take on PHM:)?????
Comment by Jeremy — January 25, 2016 @ 7:58 pm
Jon was Farshad Shiravni at the Cambridge conference ?
.
Comment by Les — January 25, 2016 @ 8:04 pm
Jon
At one time you mentioned something about the person or persons who took part in the last financing that GGI did before Christmas , did you ever find out who the people were?
Thanks
Comment by Greg — January 25, 2016 @ 8:25 pm
He may very well have been, Les, I just didn’t see him during the time I was there. Greg, I’ll respond to that in a separate piece for subscribers.
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2016 @ 8:36 pm
Jon, any comment regarding NickB’s info on DBV? I realize DBV has been quiet as of late and attentions have been mostly on GGI, but you dont seem to say much about Farshad and Co. anymore.
Comment by Steve A. — January 25, 2016 @ 8:40 pm
Jmo,but if I had my druthers,I’d rather have Shirvani as my CEO than Regoci.Regoci never had any plan to continue drilling or even start on the Sheslay before spring or summer.He is that slow.
He admitted they had an XRF which are considered extremely accurate,but can’t be the final say,officially.He knows what they have,and could have continues to drill based on those findings.He didn’t.Why?
The plan obviously was to go back to Mexico.
Now,is the Sheslay considered the #1 play for these guys,or did they just fulfill their Flow Through obligations,and now it’s on to Mexico,which is #1?
Will they only be back here this summer some time?
Will they sell the Mexico property to help pay for the Sheslay play full bore?
Is the Sheslay more important on BMR than it is in Regoci’s stable?
Why is there never any volume in the stock,even with a PR coming?He must be telling SOMEBODY what they have found!
These are just questions that keep popping up in my head with this play.
Comment by robinandthe7hoods — January 25, 2016 @ 8:44 pm
Interesting, Steve, waiting for news and looking fwd to the recommencement of drilling. The key is the drilling because that’s what gets everything rolling.
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2016 @ 8:45 pm
My pleasure guys.
Unfortunately, the call isn’t recorded. I’ll keep you up with new info though, as it becomes available, but from the way I see it, news releases should do a better job than me keeping you informed once they start rolling ;).
2016 is gonna be a great year for Doubleview!
Comment by NickB — January 25, 2016 @ 8:52 pm
Farshad’s intention to drill 30 – 40 holes with no dilution and no debt is interesting. The cost of drilling will also be reduced by 80%. My guess is that DBV are cutting a deal with Tahltan, whereby Tahltan drill the holes, DBV contributes cash to cover some costs and Tahltan will get some sort of NSR. The drills and drillers are probably laying idle in the current market, so it makes sense to Tahltan to take the chance of getting a piece of the pie by drilling at a reduced rate for DBV. Just a guess.
DBV’s next PP could be at a much higher level than the current SP.
Comment by Tom UK — January 25, 2016 @ 9:04 pm
How much investment money goes toward bribes in Mexico?
cbc.ca/news/business/mexican-cartel-earns-more-from-mining-and-logging-than-drugs-1.2575826
businessinsider.com/mexican-drug-cartels-mining-2013-11
globalpost.com/article/6520998/2015/04/19/mexico-cartels-vs-mining-energy-multinationals
latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2015/04/12/mining-firms-cut-deals-with-mexican-drug-cartels-group-says/
Read more at stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/bullboard/v.ggi/garibaldi-resources-corp#V5doMOu8REhEsT46.99
Comment by robinandthe7hoods — January 25, 2016 @ 10:02 pm
DBV may not need another PP .
Comment by dwudrick — January 25, 2016 @ 10:46 pm
robinandthe7hoods: “Bribes” and “extortion” in parts of Mexico (or other countries); “social license” in Canada – much difference?
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2016 @ 10:47 pm
Les- Farshad had plans to attend so he should have been at Cambridge.
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 4:32 am
NickB thanks for posting the DBV conference call summary. I think we were in different groups as there are one or 2 items I didn’t get in my conference call and there are a few items that you missed in your post….I will check my notes and will add any additional info you may not have received on your call.
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 4:53 am
DDD4 – unless you saw him or know someone who saw him don’t say he should have. This is just based on your own rules.
Comment by George — January 26, 2016 @ 5:00 am
GGI – this is going to be very interesting to see what they end up telling us.
Comment by George — January 26, 2016 @ 5:02 am
George- I know he was planning on attending so therefore I can use the word “should” have attended!
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 5:51 am
Tom UK- good guess on DBV reduced drill rate but I don’t think this will happen or is the plan. Farshad said that he will only be paying for labour so my guess is that he is going to get his own rig! This would reduce costs drastically….like GGI in Mexico!
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 6:19 am
DDD4 – But you are just basing this upon what he said. You told me that you dont listen to what CEOs say. That is why I am saying he could have just been lying.
Comment by George — January 26, 2016 @ 6:48 am
DDD4, where is the money going to come from for the rig without financing or debt?
Comment by Sameer — January 26, 2016 @ 6:59 am
Ddd4, also look forward to your additional notes to NickB post, thanks in advance
Comment by Sameer — January 26, 2016 @ 7:01 am
This is the reason I stopped sharing info good or bad about dbv and ggi…..thanks
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 7:01 am
My guess too DDD4. Something in the likes of openning his own drilling branch in the company. I do not think this will be an association with a third party, for 2 reasons: 1-He was very clear about not needing to do any financing or not needing any money and not planning on issuing new shares (at the moment that is), and 2-He fears dilution like pest, really, that’s exactly the context in which he stated his current position (14,5M shares). Dilution would hit him more badly than anyone of us, and I highly doubt an association would be for a mere 1% or so.
My bet, he’s getting his own stuff.
Unless, of course, he was lying. But I have no idea what would be the point of lying. He really do not seem to be depending on the market right now, nor do he tries to pump the stock, so what would be the point of lying about he new “plan”?
Comment by NickB — January 26, 2016 @ 7:04 am
A cdn company exploring in northern Ontario had to ‘entertain’ a Chief and his wife/group in Toronto at hockey games, hotels, etc for a few years when they were exploring on their land. Also contributions to the local hockey team etc helped. All of this was accomplished w a bd member tasked to keeping relations onside. You want something, you have to pay for it somehow, doesn’t seem to matter which country your in, just smells different.
Comment by david — January 26, 2016 @ 7:06 am
Gentlemen, let’s cut the sniping, not necessary and detracts from the board…
Comment by Jon - BMR — January 26, 2016 @ 7:08 am
NickB , Farshad has never been one to stretch the truth or resort to lying in the past and I don’t believe he has changed . A lot has happened over the months and I would suspect drill rigs and funds are something new , like a JV , we will find out soon enough. The important thing is they will resume drilling aggressively ( 30 to 40 holes ) this year which will give DBV enough information to issue a resource estimate . The next few holes will also indicate a starter pit that Dr. Razique has surly had his expertise put to use. Let’s not forget a few million dollars would be chump change to someone like Antofagasta .
Comment by Les — January 26, 2016 @ 8:53 am
Jon , what ever happened to that video series of interviews with Dr. Razique that were abruptly halted with the CD incident ? It’s time for a refresher and a continuation of those videos as to why Dr.Razique was so excited about the Sheslay area.
Comment by Les — January 26, 2016 @ 9:01 am
Not trying to snip DDD4, BMR. I am trying to absorb as much information about peoples trading strategies, theories etc to help better my own. I am trying to learn from people. So I am just trying to clarify peoples positions when they same one thing and then contradict themselves. For example, DDD4 has said many times without prejudice that he doesnt talk or listen to what CEOs have to say and goes upon his own DD(geos, research etc. ). Then he said he didn’t speak to CEO but just listened to the conference call of what the CEO had to share. Then he said that based on what the CEO said that that information was worthy to share with the group. I appreciate this board and everyone comments, as I have learned a lot, as well as who seems to be credible and who isn’t. At the end we are all trying to make money I assume and sometime when things are said they make sound more harsh then they really are meant to be.
Comment by George — January 26, 2016 @ 9:12 am
George- you’re misquoting me…..I don’t talk to CEOS and most importantly one on one! If I didn’t listen to what they said that would mean I don’t read PRs or read what is on their website! There is a big difference between listening to a CEO in a one sided conversation (PR/interview) and speaking to them in private one on one! People seem to finds ways to criticize me no matter how honest my intentions are…..consequently because of this I don’t share info here good or bad about stocks that interest readers (DBV and GGI)….
Comment by DDD4 — January 26, 2016 @ 9:38 am
DDD4 – Such is life and democracy, debates and criticism. Happens every day in the House of Commons. Happy Capitalism.
Comment by George — January 26, 2016 @ 10:34 am