Gold has traded between $1,247 and $1,268 so far today…as of 9:45 am Pacific, bullion is up $18 an ounce at $1,264…Silver is 27 cents higher at $17.48…Copper is up a penny at $2.24…Crude Oil has edged up 31 cents to $45.64 while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled nearly half a point to 93.90…
Gold is benefiting from a weak U.S. dollar today…the Bank of Japan unexpectedly held monetary policy steady overnight, boosting the yen versus the dollar, while the Federal Reserve signaled yesterday that it was in no rush to tighten…meanwhile, the greenback came under further pressure this morning following news that U.S. economic growth braked sharply to its slowest pace in 2 years during Q1…
U.S. GDP increased at a weaker-than-expected 0.5% annual rate, the slowest since the 1st quarter of 2014, the Labor Department reported this morning in its advance estimate…consumer spending softened (slowest pace since Q1 2015) and a strong dollar continued to undercut exports…businesses doubled down on efforts to reduce unwanted merchandise clogging warehouses, while the economy was also blindsided by cheap Crude which has hurt the profits of Oil companies like Schlumberger and Hallibuton…business spending contracted at its fastest pace since the 2nd quarter of 2009…
It’s hard to imagine that given the current economic climate in the U.S., combined with the upcoming British referendum on the EU in late June and then the U.S. elections in November, that the Fed will be in a position to raise rates again until at least December – Gold and Venture bullish, dollar bearish…
Commerzbank on yesterday’s Fed policy decision: “The made cautious remarks about how it plans to proceed in the future, and gave no indication of any rate hike in June. We believe that the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates further until the second half of the year. The longer interest rates remain low, the longer the opportunity costs of holding Gold also remain low.”
Gold analysts polled by Reuters have hiked their forecasts for the precious metal by nearly $100 an ounce since the start of the year after it posted its biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the 3 months to the end of March…the survey of 30 analysts at banks and trading houses carried out this month returned an average 2016 Gold price forecast of $1,209 an ounce, up from $1,118 in a similar poll in January…last year, prices averaged $1,159 an ounce…they are expected to rise steadily this year, peaking at an average $1,250 an ounce in the 4th quarter, the survey showed, before extending gains to average $1,300 an ounce in 2017…that would be its highest annual average since 2013…
Oil Update
Is it possible that Crude Oil could be back in a bull market?…we’ll take a close look at that possibility tomorrow…
The recent trend of rising Crude prices received another boost after U.S. output was shown to have fallen again last week…U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that Crude production fell to 8.94 million barrels per day last week, down almost half a million bpd from last year…elsewhere, there are immediate supply risks from Venezuela, which is facing a severe electricity crisis, and other countries that could face supply disruptions over the coming months are Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria…
In today’s Morning Musings…
1. Part 5 of our interview with Colorado Resources‘ (CXO, TSX-V) President and CEO Adam Travis…
2. Bullish updated charts for ROG, KTN and PRG…
3. Agnico Eagle Mines’ (AEM, TSX) chart shows underlying strength of producers…
4. Look out below! U.S. Dollar Index has further to fall – great news for the commodity sector…
Plus more…click here to take advantage of our Spring Sizzler Subscription Special in effect for a limited time only, or login with your username and password to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings…
SAVE 25% with a risk-free subscription as you gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features, including our new Top Opportunities List May 1!…
Well the v blew through 660, to finish the week above that would be great!
Comment by Laddy — April 28, 2016 @ 2:41 pm
Jo, I listened closely to the interview with Adam Travis. He made it very clear that majors are salivating over this area, and investors can read between the lines – Seabridge took over SNIP because it got its eye on the big prize, Colorado and KSP.
Comment by Dan1 — April 28, 2016 @ 3:14 pm
Great month end for the Venture despite year end for some, including the Tax season,etc…..not a slow end to the month with a big 7 pt gain today!
Comment by STEVEN1 — April 28, 2016 @ 6:52 pm
Jon: is this the levels that you guys are also watching? http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/12824
Comment by STEVEN1 — April 29, 2016 @ 4:52 am
Yes, Steven1. I think many investors will be shocked at what develops in Gold, Gold stocks and the Venture, in the months ahead.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 4:55 am
Great! Thanks for all the ‘hand holding’ these past 5 years! Alot of people aren’t involved anymore but you guys were there ‘everyday’ BMR!
Comment by STEVEN1 — April 29, 2016 @ 5:03 am
We slogged through the greatest downturn the industry has ever seen, and we’re better for it, Steven1. Those are learning experiences. It brings up a broader point that as individuals, often what we perceive to be horrible circumstances God is able to turn into an incredible blessing and a growing opportunity. That’s why we need to be grateful in all circumstances, the good and the bad.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 5:12 am
Adam’s comment near the end of the interview has me thinking!:)
Comment by Jeremy — April 29, 2016 @ 5:32 am
Jeremy, why this area is going to explode is because there’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines that hasn’t paid too much attention to developments on the exploration side in this sector over the last several years…this core part of the Golden Triangle is truly remarkable, geologically and in other ways, and it’s amazing how many investors just aren’t aware of the resources that exist and the $1 billion or so that has recently been pumped into new infrastructure with the power project, roads, bridges, etc…..I haven’t seen a situation this potentially explosive in many years…the facts speak for themselves…those who have the vision for what’s going to unfold over the next several months stand to make a fortune IMHO, and not just in Colorado…
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 5:39 am
the way things are looking a the moment, we could see 18and 1300 by days end.
Comment by Laddy — April 29, 2016 @ 5:48 am
Jon
Are we seeing a short squeeze in gold? The commercials are record short right now?
Thanks
Comment by Greg — April 29, 2016 @ 6:38 am
Jon
Would you be a buyer here of CXO or do you think it will pull back?
Thanks
Comment by Greg — April 29, 2016 @ 6:52 am
Looks like we’ll see the next Fib. level for Gold pretty soon…updated chart this morning.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 6:53 am
I think there are some shorts who have to be very concerned just about now, Greg…
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 6:54 am
http://business.financialpost.com/midas-letter/podcast-deveron-unmanned-aerial-systems-vp-david-macmillan-on-how-drones-are-transforming-agriculture
Deveron Podcast
Comment by Jeremy — April 29, 2016 @ 6:58 am
Well Jon… with CXO being 35 here, and over 2 bucks at a take out .. we have along way to climb… one wonders how long this might take tho… I am still nervous that the rug is going to get pulled out from under us somehow…
Wonder if that it how the sideline money is feeling as well.. once it is for sure.. if there is anything such as that the money will pour in..
Comment by Jeremy — April 29, 2016 @ 7:00 am
I’m looking at the big picture of where this is likely to be even in just 6 weeks, Greg, and I would hang on for dear life.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 8:18 am
Jon,did you not mention in a previous comment a couple of days ago that CXO could have a cooling off period in May in regards to share price.Thats kind of what I am waiting for,as the stock price has had a pretty good run the last week or so.
Comment by pole — April 29, 2016 @ 9:52 am
Yes, pole, but a cooling off period from what high? John’s most recent chart provides some guidance.
Comment by Jon - BMR — April 29, 2016 @ 10:28 am
Good point Jon.
Comment by pole — April 29, 2016 @ 10:44 am