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June 18, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 2 Of 3

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion’s share price unexpectedly turned south last week, falling 6.5 cents to close Friday at 38.5 cents, its rising 500-day moving average (SMA) which provided support at the March and May lows…in fact, the stock has traded entirely within its 300 and 500-day moving averages since early March…the successful trading strategy has been to buy near the 500-day and sell near the 300-day…the drop in GBB last week didn’t happen for fundamental reasons and was simply a result, we suspect, of some technical weakness that crept into the stock, perhaps caused by the CDNX diving to an eight-month low…in situations like this, the timid bow out – they get frustrated and scared and typically sell into a market bottom as stock moves from weak hands into strong hands…one has to be careful regarding potential technical fake outs and chart painting by the pros – the “cup with handle” formation, for example, was seemingly invalidated last week which brought about some of the selling pressure but that doesn’t mean GBB doesn’t have a terrific summer ahead of it…the initial 43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone, expected during the third quarter, should re-energize this play…the market is a forward-looking machine and those who follow GBB won’t be waiting until after the 43-101 comes out before getting positioned appropriately in the stock…the company’s current market cap of $64 million puts a value of just $21 an ounce on Gold in the ground at Granada if one were to assume the 43-101 will outline approximately 3 million ounces in the measured, indicated and inferred categories…that’s just a hypothetical number on our part at the moment but whatever number GENIVAR comes up with, we believe it should exceed the 2.4 to 2.6 million ounce conceptual figure that Gold Bullion gave in April of last year…based on all the drill results to date, this appears to be shaping up as a half-gram deposit with a higher grade starter pit and massive volume…it’s all about volume at Granada which is why the drills have to keep turning and why we want to see more than just two rigs in the LONG Bars Zone which has such incredible potential…Gold Bullion released fresh drill results from Granada May 12 which were consistent with previous numbers…hole #173 was the star of the batch of 25 holes…it provided additional evidence that the north and northeastern parts of the Eastern Extension are highly intriguing…#173 cut 80 metres grading 1.36 g/t Au within a total intersection of 363 metres of 0.35 g/t Au…a 1-metre section of high-grade (89.83 g/t Au) was hit near the bottom of the hole below 300 metres…#173 was collared approximately 115 metres northeast of #55 and 100 metres east-northeast of #108, two stellar holes released last fall…this is critical – assays are still pending on 9 holes (165, 168, 178, 183, 241, 243, 246, 254, and 257) north of #55 drilled over an east-west distance of about 250 metres and a north-south distance of 200 metres…results from those nine holes will go a long way toward confirming just how prospective these parts of the Eastern Extension are…#241 is the most northerly of those holes…meanwhile, hole #200 in the southeast portion of the Eastern Extension (northeast of discovery hole #86) returned an impressive interval of 48.50 metres grading 1.68 g/t Au within a total intersection of 210.5 metres of 0.44 g/t Au…results from the second most northerly hole drilled north of the Preliminary Block Model suggest more drilling is definitely required in that area…hole #31 hit a modest 18.5 meters grading 0.64 g/t Au close to surface (36 to 54.15 metres) and another 28 metres grading 0.59 g/t Au between a depth of 125 to 153 metres…where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire, and our theory is that there could be a significant trail of mineralization running north of the Preliminary Block Model and connecting with what has been discovered over the northern part of the Eastern Extension…six more holes (213, 214, 215, 217, 221 and 224 and 224) from the southwest portion of the Preliminary Block Model returned mixed results – we were hoping to see a couple of exciting holes from that area but that hasn’t materialized yet…overall, Gold Bullion continues to hit long intersections of lower grade mineralization over a wide area at Granada…this is a massive project with much more drilling required but the multi-million ounce model that Frank Basa has in mind remains intact…drilling is also underway in LONG Bars Zone 2 near the old Aukeko Property (2 kilometres east of Phase 1 discovery hole #17) and if Gold Bullion is able to connect these two zones, look out…GENIVAR’s Nicole Rioux, the head geologist for Granada, is genuinely excited about the Aukeko area and she is normally quite conservative in sizing things up…a couple of excellent results from this area could really ignite this play and based on all the historical information we have reviewed from “LONG Bars Zone 2″, the chances of a “hit” in this area have to be considered very good…the company provided an update on its Castle Silver Mine Project June 8…the 6,000 metre Phase 1 drill program is nearing completion and a strong new vein structure was intersected at the first IP target…a 43-101 technical report on the property has also been released…assay results from the 10 holes drilled so far are still pending…GBB plans to spin-off this asset into a separate publicly traded entity…GBB is up 450% since we introduced it to BMR readers in late December, 2009…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V)

Currie Rose is clearly one of our favorites going into the summer as it launches a major drill program at its properties in the Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt of Tanzania…the stock, which is now at an RSI(14) support level and is oversold based on Stochastics, declined two-and-a-half pennies last week but on relatively low volume…it closed Friday at 16 cents, exactly at its 300-day moving average (SMA) which has provided strong support throughout the year…the overall chart is favorable in our view and suggests a breakout above resistance in the low 20′s is only a question of when, not if…any loose stock is being gobbled up quickly and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has shown consistent accumulation in CUI since late January…the 100-day SMA has flattened out and the sure sign of a major reversal is when this turns decisively to the upside…from a fundamental perspective, the company is busier than ever with its projects in northwest Tanzania as outlined in a news release June 9…we’re particularly excited about the Sekenke Project which has “blue sky” written all over it…Sekenke is why we decided to start following CUI when it was trading around a dime last fall…results from satellite imagery provide additional evidence that Sekenke is a highly intriguing geological target and part of the same northwest trending structure that hosts Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni Project…satellite imagery has also shown that the structures at Sekenke are coincident with a strong alteration envelope…what’s unique about this project is that it surrounds and runs in between two former high grade Gold mines including Tanzania’s original producer…this greatly increases the chances of a discovery as it’s unlikely the former mines were fully exploited or explored as techniques a century ago in this industry obviously weren’t what they are today…CUI has a terrific chance to hit it big at Sekenke and we also wouldn’t be surprised if the company takes a shot at acquiring the former Sekenke Mine…that’s speculation on our part but it makes sense from a strategic point of view…pre-drilling exploration work continues at Sekenke to pinpoint the best targets and in the meantime the company will begin drilling very soon at its Mwamazengo discovery at Mabale Hills…geochemical analysis has outlined a continuous anomaly over a few hundred metres that runs parallel to the west of the discovery where previous drill results included notable high-grade intercepts such as 34 metres grading 3.60 grams per tonne gold, 12 metres grading 9.11 g/t Au, 63 metres grading 2.59 g/t Au and 31 metres grading 5.97 g/t Au…CUI also has two other important targets at Mabale Hills, Sisu River and Dhahabu…while its Tanzanian properties are the market’s major focus, Currie Rose could also benefit over the summer from continued good exploration news out of Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V) which is currently conducting an 8,000 metre drill program at the Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury…Trueclaim, which continues to release encouraging assay results, has earned a 51% interest in Scadding and can acquire a full 100% interest by completing a feasibility study, paying $2 million to Currie Rose, and giving Currie Rose a 3% net smelter royalty…CUI announced a joint-venture deal January 25 with Australian-based Liontown Resources for Currie’s Jubilee Reef Gold Project in Tanzania…CUI’s focus is on the Sekenke and Mabale Hills Projects, so finding a partner for Jubilee Reef made sense…the deal commits Liontown to at least 5,000 metres of drilling at the property this year which will give Currie Rose a minimum of 23,000 metres of drilling at all of its properties in 2011…while Currie Rose has had its market cap shaved by more than half, from a high of nearly $40 million late last year to the current $14.2 million, what hasn’t changed is the quality of this company’s project portfolio which remains as high as ever…Currie Rose has all the cash it needs ($2 million) to complete an initial major round of drilling (10,000 metres) in Tanzania this summer, so there will not be any dilution of the stock at current levels as confirmed by President and CEO Harold Smith…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

Adventure Gold continues to look very, very interesting and the potential of a near-term breakout definitely exists…on Thursday, the company gave the market a pleasant surprise when it reported results from the first two holes of a drill program at its Lapaska Gold Property 20 kilometres east of Val d’Or…AGE is the operator of this project which Mazarro Resources (MZO, TSX-V) can earn a 70% interest in (30% to AGE) under which we consider to be quite favorable terms for Adventure Gold…the Lapaska Property is located along the Cadillac-Larder Lake Gold Break and the first two holes returned solid results at shallow depths…LP-11-16 cut an interval of 1 g/t Au over 103.4 metres (from 45.3 to 148.7 metres), including 10.3 g/t Au over 3.8 metres, while LP-11-17 returned 1.2 g/t Au over a 156.9-metre interval (25.2 to 182.1 metres)…LP-11-16 included a Gold halo of 564.1 metres grading 0.3 g/t while LP-11-17 featured a Gold halo of 245.5 metres grading 0.8 g/t, providing evidence of a potentially strong Gold system…both holes were drilled perpendicular to the strike of the vein system in the Lapaska Central zone and are therefore close to true thickness…this will be interesting to watch and the market will be eagerly awaiting additional results to size up the potential of this play…Mazarro, which we mentioned Thursday morning when it was trading at just 23 cents, closed Friday at 38 cents…AGE closed Friday at 55 cents, a loss of 2 pennies for the week, but AGE could really start to motor once it breaks through resistance around 60 cents…it has been a very decent performer this year, relative to the overall market, and has other outstanding projects that have the potential of driving this stock much higher in the second half of this year…just recently the company reported significant news regarding its Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…AGE has started a 5,000 metre Phase 2 drill program at the property after releasing more highly encouraging drill results including 4.8 g/t Au over 33.1 metres in hole #20 (plus lower grade halos over significant widths)…the intent of this program is to further define the Gold system, leading to a resource calculation which is already being worked on…Pascalis-Colombiere encompasses the past producing L.C. Beliveau mine (Richmont’s Beaufor Mine is just a few kilomeres away)…we found a comment from AGE President and CEO Marco Gagnon in the June 2 news release quite interesting…”Following positive drill results and the permitting process, an open-pit or an underground operation could be producing in the near future“…earlier this year we met with AGE’s Jules Riopel, VP Exploration, regarding the company’s strong portfolio of properties…he was very keen at that time on Pascalis-Colombiere and given the drill results, his bullishness on this property appears to have been justified…the former L.C. Beliveau Mine was a very profitable operation between 1989 and 1993, producing nearly 170,000 ounces of Gold for Cambior…meanwhile, Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) has started a 4,000-metre drill program at AGE’s Dubuisson Property near Val d’or…Dubuisson is contiguous to the Goldex mine property and also straddles a 5-kilometre segment of the prolific Cadillac-Larder Lake Gold break…AGE’s latest financials, released April 1, show the company with $3 million in working capital at the end of January…AGE runs an efficient operation and knows where to direct its energies…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007 and we are impressed by the company’s solid portfolio of properties (19 in six strategic areas in Quebec and Ontario)…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down-plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and is on track to reach the 2,400 metre target level in the near future…if a discovery is made, AGE will instantly explode higher…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

GoldQuest remains in a consolidation phase which provides a great opportunity for patient and long-term investors…for the week the stock was off half a penny, closing at 18.5 cents…some major bids came in at 17 cents…the stock has had a difficult four months, falling from a high of 48.5 cents in early February, but the opportunity at current levels has to be considered highly attractive…Chairman Bill Fisher certainly sees value at these lower prices – he recently picked up 211,000 shares in the open market between 18 and 20.5 cents according to insider trading reports…GQC’s prospects remain solid as the company has an outstanding portfolio of projects in the Dominican Republic and Spain…while GQC is now slightly below its 300 and 500-day moving averages, these long-term term SMA’s continue to rise and are in no danger of rolling over anytime soon…technically and fundamentally, the downside risk from current levels is very limited in our view…the 200-day SMA at 30 cents continues to rise and that’s where major resistance can be expected for now on the upside…that’s also where the declining 100-day SMA sits…the declining 50-day SMA at 22.5 cents is also an area of resistance…a test of those moving averages should be expected over the summer…the substantial drop in the share price from a high of 48.5 cents in early February was due to general market weakness and selling from speculators whose expectations may have been too high regarding initial drill results from the company’s La Escandalosa Project in the Dominican Republic…in addition, the company has stopped all drilling in the DR until probably August in order to conduct extensive IP surveys over Escandalosa and other properties…overall assay results from Escandalosa were decent though far from spectacular…the final set of assays for seven holes came out May 16…the best intersection from Escandalosa Sur, where an initial 43-101 inferred resource of 400,000 ounces was outlined last fall, was 20 meters grading 1.32 g/t Au…results from this area overall (21 holes) were somewhat disappointing though more drilling is required and will take place later this year…however, the company drilled three holes at the Hondo Valle target 1.6 kilometres to the north (outside the resource area) and all three intersected significant mineralization including 29 metres grading 2.18 g/t Au in hole #65…that’s the thickest and highest grade mineralized section drilled to date at Hondo Valle…the theory is that mineralization trends north from Escandalosa Sur to Hondo Valle…GoldQuest is now carrying out a 16-square kilometre IP survey and magnetic ground geophysical survey from 2 kilometres north of Hondo Valle to 2.2 kilometres south of Escandalosa Sur…this will be completed by the end of July and GQC will then use the data to pinpoint key targets for an additional 3,000 metres of drilling…GoldQuest also has other promising projects in the DR (in particular, Loma Oculta – formerly Las Animas – where an exploration program aimed at identifying new drill targets is now underway) in addition to its lead-zinc-silver deposit in Spain…GoldQuest’s potential has not diminished whatsoever yet the share price has dropped by about 60% from its early February high…the company released a 43-101 resource estimate March 2 on its Toral zinc-lead-Silver deposit in Spain…it showed slightly lower grades but much higher overall tonnage than the previous historical non-compliant estimate…as a result, total resources came out 15% higher…resources in the indicated category are 4.04 million tonnes grading 11.8% lead and zinc (5.3% lead, 6.5% zinc) as well as 41 g/t Ag and 0.11% Cu… inferred resources are 4.67 million tonnes grading 9.8% lead and zinc (4.44% lead, 5.4% zinc), 32 g/t Ag and 0.14 Cu…Toral has significant exploration and development upside as a majority of the historical drilling (40,000+ metres) was conducted over one relatively small part of the property…the zone of sulphide mineralization is open along strike to the northwest toward a known lead deposit as well as along strike to the southeast and downdip…the project is also an ideal candidate for a fast-track to production…the deposit is close to a power line, highway and rail line…a large smelter is located just 300 kilometers away by rail…GQC is off a penny from when we introduced it to BMR readers last fall…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Volume has come back into Seafield and the stock has been volatile lately, bouncing back and forth from the low 20’s to the low 30’s…the 100-day moving average (SMA) at 32 cents is providing resistance at the moment while there is plenty of support at 21 cents (the rising 1,000 day SMA is at 18.5 cents)…SFF closed Friday at 24 cents, a decline of 3 pennies for the week…volume on all exchanges for SFF has exceeded 1 million shares each session for the past 7 trading days…the company announced the closing of a $3 million private placement at 30 cents May 24 with a “strategic” long-term investor and also released an updated 43-101 resource estimate for its Miraflores Property…that project has gone from an inferred resource of 776,000 ounces (at a cut-off grade of 0.5 g/t Au) to a measured and indicated resource of 1.2 million ounces and an inferred resource of 354,000 ounces (at a cut-off grade of 0.3 g/t Au)…another round of drilling will begin shortly at Miraflores…there was big news out of Seafield May 9 with a change in management which has to be considered a bullish development…Cesar Lopez, who has a strong background in South American exploration management and development, is the company’s new Chief Executive Officer…he replaces Tony Roodenburg who will remain as a director…Tom Henricksen, meanwhile, takes over as Vice-President, Exploration, from James Pirie who also remains as a director…Henricksen has over 35 years of mineral exploration experience and has spent the last 15 years on projects in South America…Seafield exploded from the low 20′s to an all-time high of 77 cents in just one day last December but then proceeded to give up all of those gains…the company’s Quinchia land package in Colombia has a great deal of untapped potential and Seafield is also sitting on approximately $18 million in cash…the company announced April 5 that drilling has commenced at Santa Sofia, about 1 kilometre north of Dos Quebradas where drilling continues…Seafield geologists have identified a promising porphyry target measuring 1,050 metres in length and 850 metres in width at Santa Sofia with soil values up to 2.3 g/t Au…on March 7, assays were reported from the first three holes completed at Dos Quebradas with hole #2 intersecting a whopping 511 metres grading 0.58 g/t Au…the hole ended in mineralization…hole #1 delivered 269 metres grading 0.37 g/t Au while hole #3 was drilled to define the eastern limit of mineralization and returned no significant results…significant intercepts well outside areas of historical drilling would start to get the market excited…the geological case for Seafield’s Quinchia land package is compelling and we’re looking forward to more results from Dos Quebradas as well as initial assays from Santa Sofia…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…we have confidence the new management group will unlock value by bringing fresh insight and new energy to this play along with a more aggressive exploration approach…Seafield has gained 300% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio in the summer of 2009…its current market cap of approximately $37 million is modest given its cash position and resource potential…

3 Comments

  1. BMR – In situations like this, the timid bow out – they get frustrated and scared and typically sell into a market bottom as stock moves from weak hands into strong hands…

    Bert – I prefer to question a company credentials, when it falls with a falling market. Good solid companies
    usually hold. The opposite to TIMID is BOLD & the BOLD today or STRONG HANDS , who pick up stocks at a discount,
    to what the TIMID paid, will be classed as TIMID tomorrow, if they find themselves in the same position.

    BMR – One has to be careful regarding potential technical fake outs and chart painting by the pros –

    Bert – Confirms my thoughts that the so called PROs are crooked, when they are willing to use trickery on the
    so called TIMID, in order to grab their cash & run. Shame !!!

    Comment by bert — June 19, 2011 @ 4:14 am

  2. Hi Jon

    I hear the Castle drill will be coming down to Granada shortly and it can drill a PQ size hole which may help with determining grade. At least that will be 3 drills on the property !

    Comment by Ron — June 19, 2011 @ 11:51 am

  3. Thanks, Ron……some RC or PQ drilling is essential to get a better handle on the grade, and for the 43-101…..in terms of Jan’s comment, I’ve been cautious all along about the timing of the 43-101 because these things typically take longer than expected….if GBB can produce a 43-101 by the end of September, that would be great IMHO…..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — June 19, 2011 @ 1:12 pm

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