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June 21, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,539 and $1,549 so far today…as of 8:35 am Pacific, the yellow metal is $6 higher at $1,547…Silver has gained 48 cents to $36.54…crude oil has climbed 57 cents to $93.83 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off marginally at 74.65…all eyes are on what’s unfolding in Greece…the new Greek government faces a confidence vote this evening with the outcome critical to the survival of the government and to the disbursal of loans from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank…there appears to be a growing disconnect, however, between the electorate and the Greek government/political system and that has to be watched closely…there has been a dramatic fall recently in an interesting indicator, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which is actually bullish for stocks…the CESI dropped to its lowest level this month since the first quarter of 2009…at that time, and also recently in August of last year, when the CESI was below -50, this was followed by a strong rally in equities…this seems to jive with the CDNX which yesterday fell below its 300-day moving average (SMA) for the first time since July of last year…a drop below the rising 300-day SMA has marked important market bottoms in the CDNX over the past decade with that drop typically being in the neighborhood of about 5%…we are expecting a much better second half of 2011 for the CDNX which is strong this morning along with the broader markets…the CDNX is up 17 points at 1899…Levon Resources (LVN, TSX-V), which John featured in a chart over the weekend, is 10 cents higher at $1.79 on strong volume after releasing its first NI-43-101 resource estimate for its wholly owned Cordero Project in Mexico…the indicated resource stands at 310.9 million ounces of Silver, 908,000 ounces of Gold, 5.3 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead…the inferred resource includes 139.9 million ounces of Silver, 229,000 ounces of Gold, 2.2 billion pounds of zinc, and 1.2 billion pounds of lead…the mineral resource estimate is within an entire open-pit geometry with a preliminary waste to strip ratio of 1.7:1 using a base case $6/tonne (U.S.) net smelter return (NSR) cut-off…Levon gapped up to $1.78 on the news and climbed as high as $1.92 this morning, its 50-day declining moving average (SMA) where there is obviously some technical resistance…the company is well-financed, having recently completed a $40 million financing, and has a world class resource on its hands…one of our favorites for this summer is Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V) which holds a 25% interest in the northern portion of the Blackwater deposit, now controlled by New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX-V),  in addition to active projects in the Yukon which should be a sizzling exploration area this summer…SQI got as high as $1.04 this morning (it’s currently unchanged at 99 cents) and appears determined to challenge its recent all-time high of $1.07…John updates the chart for SQI below…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) continues to look very strong and we believe it’s only a matter of time before AGE breaks through resistance in the upper 50’s…AGE has five quality active projects on the go – all are proceeding well and we like the odds of at least one of them emerging as a catalyst this summer to drive this stock to new all-time highs…AGE has significantly outperformed the CDNX this year and there’s every reason to believe that trend will continue…AGE is currently up 2 pennies at 56 cents…smart money has been a buyer of Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) at its 500-day rising moving average (SMA) where it’s trading at now and has found support since March…GBB is unchanged at 38.5 cents…Wildcat Silver (WS, TSX-V) is looking better on the charts and seems to have found strong support at $1.50…it’s emerging out of techncially oversold conditions and is up 6 pennies at $1.63…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V), which we haven’t mentioned for a while, is up a penny to 20 cents this morning…it appears GQC finally bottomed out this month at 16.5 cents after falling gradually from a two-and-a-half year high of 48.5 cents in early February…the short-term moving averages (SMA) seem poised to reverse to the upside…this is a company with an attractive pipeline of advanced and grassroots projects in the Dominican Republic and a significant lead-zinc-silver deposit in Spain…Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX), which found support around $6.30, is charging higher this morning with the Gold group…we expect Richmont will report stellar earnings again for Q2…we’re also very impressed with the company’s exploration progress at its Wasamac Project which has the potential of more than doubling the RIC’s annual Gold production…Richmont is a keeper for the long haul in this ongoing Gold bull market…it’s up 35 cents at the moment to $6.73…Chinese companies listed in Canada have suffered billions of dollars in losses after allegations of fraud were levelled recently by a short seller against Sino-Forest…the Globe and Mail’s Martin Mittelstaedt wrote this morning that the most recent audited financial statements for CDNX-listed United China International Enterprises Group (UCG.U, TSX-V) for instance, express “substantial doubt” about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern…United China suspended construction on a cement plant it was building in 1999 because of lack of funds and has no business operations…a review by The Globe of the 60-odd Chinese companies listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the more speculative Venture Exchange found the “China” sector abounds in extreme levels of risk for investors with frequent, lengthy trading halts, numerous auditor changes, illiquid stocks, and even the odd zombie company…some shareholder advocacy groups, such as the Canadian Foundation for Advancement of Investors Rights, have been critical of the TMX for the apparent conflict between its role in protecting investors and the additional revenue it receives in fees from listing new companies…as always, buyer beware, and always do your own due diligence which should include contacting a company or the CEO directly…

1 Comment

  1. Hello BMR, when might you think that Mr.Rotten burg is going make his move with VGN? Have you had any contact with him since he was REMOVED at SFF? By the time Mr. Rottenburg ever gets around to creating any share holder value, TRE, Sino Forest will be back over $ 20.00. Does BMR still stand behind their own claim that VGN will at higher ALL TIME highs, ” sometime in the 1st half of the year”?? I have noticed lately that you do not respond to my posts/questions, are you concerned that VGN is a COMPLETE FAILURE, and you are afraid to admit it?

    Comment by john — June 21, 2011 @ 8:36 am

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