Gold’s immediate inability to push through resistance around $1,685 has put downward pressure on the yellow metal this morning…as of 8:05 am Pacific, Gold is off $32 an ounce at $1,639…Silver has lost 64 cents to $31.16…Copper is down 4 cents to $3.33…Crude Oil is flat at $86.72 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed one-quarter of a point to 77.40…
A slew of economic data and corporate earnings came out this morning and markets have been somewhat volatile as a result but the Dow is now in positive territory…China’s annual GDP growth eased to 9.1% in the third quarter, slightly below expectations, after a 9.5% increase in the previous quarter as tight monetary policy and softening foreign demand crimped activity…another important point regarding China is that implied oil demand in that country, as calculated by Reuters, rose just 1% in September from a year earlier to about 8.9 million barrels per day, its slowest rate of growth so far this year…clearly, statistics show that growth is easing in China (the overall economy has now slowed for three consecutive quarters after hitting 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year)…growth is still robust and most economists are expecting a “soft landing” but an unexpected GDP drop from current levels to, say, 6% or 7% would have a major negative impact on the global economy and stock markets…the biggest risks to the Chinese economy are a steep fall in global demand for exports or a collapse in the overheated Chinese real estate market…the action in the CDNX since the spring suggests to us that the risks with regard to China (as well as the euro zone, the United States and the global economy in general) are greater than most investors perceive…
A Nanos Research poll released this morning shows that Canadians’ confidence level in the economy has hit its lowest level in two years…in 2009, Canadians were climbing out of the market crash and were still quite pessimistic – but not as pessimistic as in this most recent economic-mood index…it shows that only 16% of those surveyed felt the economy will become stronger in the next six months compared to 29.2% who felt the same way in the second quarter of this year…38.9% of respondents said they felt the economy would be weaker compared to 23.6% in the second quarter…the problem, of course, is that this can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as individuals begin to cut back on spending…
The CDNX is off 15 points at 1527 after touching a low of 1517 in early trading…whether the Index rallies another 100 or 200 points from here, which is possible, is largely irrelevant at this point as we believe the bull market is over for now…there is a high degree of risk in the Venture Exchange at the moment given the overall negative technical outlook…an anticipated reversal to the downside in the 300-day moving average (SMA) sometime during this fourth quarter will add to the technical woes…this paints a bleak picture of what our world could look like six months from now…
Producers are faring better, of course, and there is safety in them, but they’re still not keeping up with the rate of change in Gold as everyone knows…below is an interesting 8-year monthly chart from John on the TSX Gold Index which as of 8:05 am Pacific is down 10 points at 384…the Gold Index, as you can see, has been under-performing with respect to Gold since late 2006 – sooner or later that should change…
BMR – this paints a bleak picture of what our world could look like six months from now…
Bert – Oh boy !!!!!
Comment by Bert — October 18, 2011 @ 7:12 am
This is one of the hardest decisions i have made in my lifetime,
but here goes..
BMR
Please remove my name, email record from your records. Thank you !
Comment by Bert — October 18, 2011 @ 7:15 am
Correction in previous post “””email address””. Thanks !
Comment by Bert — October 18, 2011 @ 7:15 am
Equities and commodities have a 0.7 correlation at the moment. It’s not gonna be pretty here for a while, but there will be good deals to grab if you have the stomach for it.
Comment by Justice — October 18, 2011 @ 9:21 am
Bert, I get the feeling if all is not milk and honey for you then you just don’t want to hear it. Harry S. Truman said, “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.” So you don’t get to read totally positive reporting so you leave the BMR kitchen. If you keep to the obsessive unending optimism, you’ll probably have your ‘investment’ lunch handed to you. You’ll be back…you did this once before and came back. Personally, I think you need the audience. I’ll probably get censured for these comments but that’s life.
Comment by Wayne — October 18, 2011 @ 11:14 am
Bert with all due respect if deciding to no longer get weekly updates from a free penny stock website is one of the hardest decisions you have ever made in your life…. I can’t even think of a response, COME ON MAN. Join a drama club.
Comment by mike — October 18, 2011 @ 11:41 am
Jon , do you think AGE are financially sound enough to survive this bear market? They seem to be in the red with long term debt. There has been some insider buying this month but it’s a minimal/nominal quantity. Thanks.
Comment by Andrew — October 18, 2011 @ 11:48 am
Yes, i am back. I actually thought, if i requested my email address be
removed from BMR records, it would close my connection with their site,
but it appears, i have to use the delete function…
I apologize for my choice of words, i may have been a bit too dramatic.
I actually meant, it was a difficult decision (omit, in my lifetime) for me
to leave again, after gathering up enough nerve to return, but once again,
i will try to stick with it. I feel i am not the only one amongst us,
who in a lifetime, have used a poor choice of words & no doubt will i be the
last & much smarter folks than me, will do just that.
I also feel sorry, that it caused some to turn on me so quickly, although
i don’t blame them & hold no grudges. Life is just too short.
With all due respect to BMR., i feel they have turned too negative &
may be causing others to make decisions, that they may regret later.
Some may say, why be concerned about others, but that’s the way i am. I am
what i am, what i am. I also try to remain positive at all times & will take
things one day at a time & not 6 months down the road.
Sorry again for just being a nuisance & i can now state,, John, meet
another GRUMPY man.
To those of you, whom i feel are cyber friends, best of luck & may you do
well with your trading.
R !
Bert
Comment by Bert — October 18, 2011 @ 1:29 pm
Great comment Mike – hit the nail on the head.
BMR is simply another free penny website that publishes their own opinion as they see the markets, based on their own analysis, which may be sound or way off mark. This is what makes the marketplace the very volatile and unpredictable playground for traders, and BMR has not tried hiding this by any means – in fact, they always mention i.e “in our view,” or “we believe.” The analysis they provide should merely be used as a supplement to your own research. Have they been wrong? Absolutely they have! But make no mistake you only have yourself to blame on acting on other people’s opinions! Asking to be removed from BMR’s email list publicly is a lame attempt to scapegoat them, which is not fair.
Good luck everyone – it’s your money, your decision.
Comment by Alex — October 18, 2011 @ 2:31 pm
I am not sure I agree with BMR’s report above. The CDNX from the low 1300’s to 1700’s would give a good return. Also, where was BMR warning everybody about the crash from 2465 high in March. BMR was saying the CDNX will goto 2700+. So, when it’s going good, we go higher; when it’s bad BMR says we’re going Lower?
Comment by STEVEN — October 18, 2011 @ 3:45 pm
Heck, I’ll post something positive, even though it is still a band aid solution. I predict Europe debt deal will pass. Feds anounce QE3……..stocks soar, short term anyways……gold goes ballistic. Anyone holding good gold stocks may see their portfolio rise substantially. That leads me to this stock…….GDX. Volume has been fairly heavy lately, rumours that permits have been granted for drilling El Arco…….best undrilled property in the Americas, according to Larry Kornze. At only 6 cents this one looks quite attractive IMO……..thoughts anyone?
Comment by Dan — October 18, 2011 @ 4:22 pm
BMR, GDX may be a stock to look at adding to your portfolio……..get rid of SD? Just a suggestion.
Comment by Dan — October 18, 2011 @ 4:25 pm
Hi Andrew, sorry for not responding earlier today as I’ve been attending to my ailing mom in hospital. Yes, AGE is in solid shape and will survive no matter how bad conditions may get over the next year. They watch their pennies closely and reported $3.3 million in working capital as of April 30. This includes 15,000 shares of Agnico-Eagle. I suspect their Pascalis Property will be looked at closely as a potential acquisition by a producer – my thinking is Richmont – in the coming months after release of a 43-101 which is expected by year-end.
Comment by Jon - BMR — October 18, 2011 @ 9:58 pm
Well stated, Alex. Yes, we’ve been wrong before and we’ve been right. We’ll be wrong again and we’ll be right again. Investors need to always perform their own DD and also weigh opinions from others.
Comment by Jon - BMR — October 18, 2011 @ 10:01 pm
Sorry to here about your mother Jon. Praying for a healing touch from God for her.
Comment by Ed — October 19, 2011 @ 4:34 am
Thanks Jon and I wish a speedy recovery for your mum.
Comment by Andrew — October 19, 2011 @ 4:49 am
Thanks, Andrew. Unfortunately I learned yesterday she likely has lung cancer, so the outlook is not good but people are there for her.
Comment by Jon - BMR — October 19, 2011 @ 8:19 am