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October 19, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,643 and $1,665 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $8 an ounce at $1,647…Silver is off 61 cents at $31.43…Copper has declined 8 cents to $3.29…Crude Oil is up 11 cents at $88.45 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-quarter of a point at 76.88…

Markets remain focused on the euro zone debt crisis ahead of this weekend’s EU summit in Brussels…as we’ve seen in the United States, it’s hard enough for just one government to get its act together…in the case of the euro zone, there are 17 individual governments at the table which is why there has been a history of disappointments regarding the handling of this problem…the bar has likely been set too high for a “solution” this weekend and markets could easily react to the downside Monday morning…

Demonstrators today threw stones and gasoline bombs at police outside parliament in Athens, Greece, during a two-day general strike that unions have described as the largest in years…the protest, which has grounded flights, disrupted public transport and shut down shops to schools in Greece, comes ahead of a parliamentary vote on a fresh package of tax increases and spending cuts required by international creditors in return for crucial bailout cash…deputies are due to vote tonight after a first reading of the austerity package, which has to be legislated before Greece can draw down the next tranche of its current EU-IMF bailout loan…a second vote is set for tomorrow, after a clause-by-clause discussion…the governing socialists are still expected to secure a narrow majority to push the legislation through…

U.S. consumer prices outside food and energy rose at their slowest pace in six months in September as the cost of apparel and used vehicles fell, suggesting inflation pressures remained contained…another report today showed groundbreaking on new homes rose at the fastest rate in 1-1/2 years, though most of the gains came from the often volatile multi-family construction…

In some surprising news that has put considerable pressure on the TSX Gold Index today, Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM, TSX) is suspending mining operations and Gold production at its Goldex mine near Val-d’Or effective immediately…this decision follows the receipt of an opinion from a second rock mechanics consulting firm which recommended that underground mining operations be halted until the situation is investigated further…it appears that a weak volcanic rock unit in the hangingwall of the Goldex deposit has failed…this rock failure is thought to extend between the top of the deposit and surface…as a result, this structure has allowed groundwater to flow into the mine…this water flow has likely contributed to further weakening and movement of the rock mass…the company will assess the potential for restarting the mining operations next year on the western side of the deposit where the ore zone is narrower and still considered to be relatively stable; however, there is no guarantee that this will occur…as a result, Agnico-Eagle is writing off its investment in Goldex which has been one of the lowest cost producers in the industry…it’s expected that this will total approximately $260-million (or approximately $170-million after tax, or $1 per share) and will occur in the third-quarter 2011 financial results, scheduled for release October 26…AEM is getting hammered today, down nearly 20% to around $47 a share…meanwhile, Osisko Mining (OSK, TSX) has been halted pending news…

The CDNX is off 6 points at 1546…John’s 10-year chart below shows how the Index sits today – at support and the support is holding so far…hammers are prominent on this monthly chart, and the case for additional strength/ bullishness this quarter following the October 4 low is strong…however, our “big picture” interpretation is that the CDNX has shifted from a bull market to a bear market phase though the Index hasn’t yet received a final knockout punch…throughout this year the CDNX has significantly under-performed both the broader markets and Gold, a worrisome sign going into 2012 (the situation was reversed last year)…traders/investors need to use their own judgement in terms of how to handle any potential additional gains or an uptrend in the coming weeks with the CDNX, but our stance remains very cautious…this is not an easy market to trade at the moment and liquidity just isn’t what it was earlier this year and throughout 2010…bear markets are notoriously deceptive, so be careful…cash is probably King and political dynamics around the world are not supportive of a bull market environment for equities at the moment and going into 2012…

12 Comments

  1. wish your mother well jon. As for trading, be focused on short term and take what the market gives you. Long term much harder in these market conditions. $500 or a grand here and there is good.

    Comment by dave — October 19, 2011 @ 8:38 am

  2. On the five or ten year chart of the Venture Exchange, is there any chance we are forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top? Just wondering.

    Comment by Dan — October 19, 2011 @ 9:23 am

  3. Someone mentioned yesterday that i would be back, but this
    is not about stocks, it’s a more serious matter & that is,
    Jon & his Mom. I may not know how to really express myself
    in such matters, except to state that my thoughts are with
    & your Mom & may her final diagnosis be less serious.

    I lost my Mom recently & it hasn’t been easy.

    Respectfully,

    Bet

    Comment by Bert — October 19, 2011 @ 10:51 am

  4. Hi Dan. One of the requirements of a H&S pattern is that the vol. at the top of the LS be greater than the vol. at the head which in turn must be greater than the vol. at the top of the RS. In this case the Head vol. is greater than the LS. so this cannot be a H&S pattern.

    Another point I would like to make is that it is dangerous to “assume” patterns before they are fully developed. Be aware of possibilities but take no action until patterns are complete.

    Good question. Hope this helps.

    Comment by John - BMR — October 19, 2011 @ 11:01 am

  5. Jon, hope you and your mom stay strong.

    Comment by Bruce — October 19, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

  6. It helped a lot. Thanks.

    Comment by Dan — October 19, 2011 @ 8:13 pm

  7. Bert .. thx for your guidance re d v v… appreciated… sorry to hear about yr mom… I fear I am close to that point in the next few years.. at 84 she is doing very welll, but showing signs.. JOn – wishing you strength..
    to all…. this is the real priority .. life and people.. and of course family.. nothing else matters.

    Comment by Jeremy — October 19, 2011 @ 8:59 pm

  8. GBB will go down to 21 cents and may further adjust to below 20 cents…. BER will be hitting 8 cents mark. NAR will be around 15 cents and TYP back to 65 cents. SFF also may hit low at 17 cents on Thursday.

    Comment by Theodore — October 20, 2011 @ 4:31 am

  9. Good comment, Jeremy. We tend to be consumed by things that are not truly important. As the saying goes: a day without friends/family is like a day without sunshine.

    Comment by Andrew — October 20, 2011 @ 5:48 am

  10. Hi Jon

    Have you any idea why Currie Rose not inform about the actual drilling program?
    (Last News from August 24, 2011)

    Also no information about the Sekenke projects.

    I will be honest; not a smart information policy.

    best regads
    Michael

    Comment by Michael — October 20, 2011 @ 7:15 am

  11. Harold is as solid as they come in the business, Michael, so the reason there hasn’t been any news would simply be due to the fact they haven’t received results yet…he has been very frustrated with the delays and backlogs as far as assays are concerned…I would suspect there should be something in the near future…drilling at Sekenke started in very late August, so we shouldn’t expect results from there until later this quarter…when you don’t have results, what can you say, Michael?

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 20, 2011 @ 7:30 am

  12. Thank you Jon for your answer. Of course, when you not have a result, you nothing can say.

    It looks that CUI has no “luck” with the lab to compare with the JV Partner Liontwon.

    have a nice evening
    Michael

    16/08/2011 -> LIONTOWN COMMENCES 4,000M DRILLING PROGRAM AT THE JUBILEE REEF GOLD JOINT VENTURE IN TANZANIA

    10/10/2011 -> OUTSTANDING RESULTS HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL OF JUBILEE REEF GOLD JOINT VENTURE IN TANZANIA

    Comment by Michael — October 20, 2011 @ 8:56 am

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