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Gold has traded between $1,293 and $1,316 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $10 an ounce at $1,298…Silver is off 18 cents at $19.37…Copper is down 3 pennies at $3.04…Crude Oil is up $1.17 a barrel to $100.66 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 79.16…

Besides continuing tensions in Ukraine, bullion could be impacted by Janet Yellen’s testimony today before a Joint Committee of Congress, while the European Central Bank monthly monetary policy meeting will take place tomorrow with growing pressure on the ECB to implement further stimulus measures amid concerns about deflationary pressures in the EU…the euro is also at a multi-week high against the U.S. dollar…

Yellen stated this morning that the U.S. economy is on track for solid growth this quarter…however, she cautioned that housing activity has remained disappointing and that the labor market is still “far from satisfactory.” With many people out of work – the April non-farm payroll report showed that more than 800,000 Americans disappeared from the workforce, sending the labor market participation rate to its lowest level since 1978 – Yellen signaled that the central bank plans to keep short-term interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future…

Another day, another bearish prediction on the outlook for Gold prices…from a contrarian standpoint, this is bullish and it’s the mirror image of the situation we saw even after Gold had put in an all-time high in September, 2011, when an overwhelming number of analysts were still in the bullish camp and were calling for new highs or continued buoyant prices…Metals Focus – a new analytical rival for Thomson Reuters GFMS primarily set up by former GFMS employees – put out a new 60-page report on the Gold and Silver markets today…Gold prices have probably peaked this year, they stated, and could sink to their lowest since 2010 at $1,100 an ounce as the U.S. economic recovery gathers pace…weakness is likely to set in after an impressive start to the year, it said, when Gold rallied to six-month highs…but a replay of last year’s 28% plunge, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s tapering of extraordinary stimulus measures, is not on the cards, they say…the consultancy also forecast that an eventual easing of tensions in Ukraine (that’s an interesting assumption) would add to a bearish trajectory for the market…

The idea that Gold has not yet put in a low during this cycle in our view is simply not consistent with a number of indicators including the behavior of the Venture Exchange which is such a reliable leading indicator of the future direction of Gold prices…by every technical measure, the Venture has commenced a bullish new cycle – the reverse of the situation in early 2011 when a Venture bear market commenced a full six months before Gold peaked at just over $1,900 an ounce…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian markets were weak overnight with investors concerned about escalating tensions in Ukraine…Japan’s Nikkei and ended at its lowest level since April 15, posting its biggest daily loss (424 points) since mid-March…a stronger currency weighed on manufacturers…

Europe

European markets were mostly modestly higher today…

North America

The Dow is up 36 points as of 8:30 am Pacific…U.S. non-farm productivity fell at its fastest pace in a year in the first quarter as severe weather took its toll, leading to the largest gain in unit labor costs in more than a year…productivity declined at a 1.7% annual rate after advancing at a 2.3% pace in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department reported today…it was the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2013…unit labor costs, the price of labor per single unit of output, surged at higher than expected 4.2% rate (the largest jump since the fourth quarter of 2012) after falling 0.4% in the fourth quarter…

The TSX is up 14 points as of 8:30 am Pacific while the Venture has slipped 3 points to 1002…

A sign of the times – in a research report just issued by SNL Metals and Mining, drilling activity in the first quarter of 2014 showed exploration is only at 56% of the year-ago level, and Q1 2013 drilling was just 62% of the first quarter of 2012…that’s the kind of drop-off one would normally expect at the bottom of a cycle…

Vancouver’s first “Greenrush Conference” takes place all day today at the Vancouver Convention Centre…the conference will feature speakers, government officials, health and industry specialists, public and private companies, fund managers, bankers, brokers, analysts, and media who all share a common interest in the medical marijuana, industrial hemp and alternative medicine industries…

Updates/New Situations

John has an updated chart on Balmoral Resources Ltd. (BAR, TSX-V), which has hit a Fib. resistance level, and a few other situations this morning including a couple of new companies we haven’t previously mentioned – Source Exploration Corp. (SOP, TSX-V) and Heatherdale Resources Ltd. (HTR, TSX-V)…

Balmoral Resources Ltd. (BAR, TSX)

Our last update on Balmoral Resources (BAR, TSX) was April 10 after a confirmed technical breakout above 67 cents…this morning, BAR hit the Fib. 91-cent resistance level John pointed out on that April 10 chart…BAR has a large portfolio of properties that includes an early-stage discovery at its Grasset Ni-Cu-PGE target on the Detour Trend in Quebec…below is an updated 1-year weekly chart…BAR is up a penny at 89 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…

GoldQuest Mining Corp. (GQC., TSX-V)

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) announced yesterday that it has commenced a 10,000 m drill program at new targets within its Tireo project concessions in the DR…the program will expand out but initially it’s designed to increase resources at Romero…GQC has put considerable time and expertise into nailing down drill targets, so we wouldn’t be surprised if they make another discovery…

GQC has a history of sudden, explosive moves to the upside as you can see in this 10-year monthly chart…the technical set-up here at the moment is quite bullish…major support is at 25 cents, resistance is at 40 cents…note that just prior to the last two major advances in the stock, there was a low %K/%D crossover in the SS (Slow Stochastics)…this crossover has occurred again…no guarantee of another potential surge but it’s a positive sign nonetheless…since about the middle of last year, GQC has been trading in a symmetrical triangle on this long-term monthly chart and a “time of decision” is fast approaching…we favor the possibility of an important breakout, but exact timing is uncertain…GQC is off a penny at 30 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…

Source Exploration Corp. (SOP, TSX-V)

Source Exploration (SOP, TSX-V) has some major strength behind it with Chairman David Baker (he managed and grew Goldbrook Ventures until it was ultimately sold in 2012 to its Chinese joint venture partners for approximately $100 million) and a solid geological team…Source recently reported some stellar drill results from its Santa Cruz target at its Las Minas Project 270 km east of Mexico City, and the company is in the process of completing a financing of up to $1.2 million at 12 cents per unit as it prepares for more drilling shortly…we’ll expand on Source in the near future…this company is very worthy of our readers’ immediate due diligence…

Below is a 3-year weekly SOP chart showing strong support around current levels…the stock has settled back slightly after recently touching its highest level (15 cents) since late 2012, and the overall bullish trend remains intact given its rising moving averages and according to the ADX indicator…SOP closed up a penny at 12.5 cents yesterday…

Heatherdale Resources Ltd. (HTR, TSX-V)

Readers may wish to check out Heatherdale Resources (HTR, TSX-V) – the Alaska State Legislature has unanimously passed Senate Bill 99, which includes a provision authorizing the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority to provide up to $125-million in financing for infrastructure and construction costs at Heatherdale’s Niblack project, a potential Copper-Gold-Zinc-Silver underground mine on Prince of Wales Island in southeast Alaska…

HTR is off a penny at 7 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…technically, however, the short and long-term charts are very compelling…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John…note the breakout above the cup-with-handle pattern…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Canadian Dollar Update

The Canadian dollar is on the rebound – this could be technically driven, or perhaps it’s a sign of future commodity strength…with a bullish crossover in the ADX indicator, expect the loonie to test resistance around the 94-cent level…

The Financial Post reported today that Gluskin, Sheff + Assoc. economist David Rosenberg believes the negative sentiment toward the loonie may be excessive…the most recent COT report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that for the loonie, the net non-commercial short position on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been reduced by more than half in the past six weeks, yet it remains very high at 31,917 contracts…Rosenberg stated, “In contrast, the speculative crowd is long the other commodity currencies up the wazoo.” He notes the Australian dollar has seen net long positions for four weeks straight for the first time since April, 2013, and net longs for the New Zealand dollar is at the high end of the historical range. “Only the Canadian dollar among the major commodity currencies is facing the ignominy of a net speculative short position – even the resources themselves are experiencing net long positions on the various exchanges,” stated Rosenberg, highlighting COMEX Gold, Silver, NYMEX Oil and Henry Hub natural gas on the CME…

Note:  John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in BAR, GQC, SOP or HTR.