Gold has traded between $1,251 and $1,258 so far today…as of 7:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $2 an ounce at $1,254…Silver is 11 cents higher at $19.12…Copper, after falling 15 cents the last two weeks, is down another penny at $3.04 as concerns persist over suspected fraud involving metals stored at a Chinese port…Chinese authorities are investigating whether companies used the same Copper, aluminum and iron-ore stocks held in the port of Qingdao as collateral for obtaining multiple loans…Crude Oil is up $1.26 a barrel to $103.92…a mid-week OPEC policy meeting and a slew of energy agency reports are scheduled this week…the U.S. Dollar Index has gained one-quarter of a point to 80.66…
Good sign – hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in Gold futures and options in the week to June 3 to their lowest level since mid-January, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday…meanwhile, commercial traders, who are seldom on the wrong side, have reduced their net short positions to levels not seen since early February…the COT structure is even more bullish in Silver with commercial shorts scaled back dramatically from mid-March to levels that existed just ahead of the big rally in August of last year…clearly, a significant upside move is brewing in Silver (it’s never wise to bet against the commercials), though slightly lower levels are still possible first, especially considering that June is typically a weak month…John has updated Silver charts at the bottom of today’s Morning Musings…
Technically, as John’s latest Gold chart showed over the weekend, bullion faces immediate resistance at $1,260 while a strong support band is in place between $1,220 and $1,240…
Today’s Equity Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite closed unchanged overnight at 2030…China’s central bank guided the renminbi higher by the most in 20 months today, prompting speculation Beijing has decided to reverse the biggest depreciation in the currency’s recent history…today’s appreciation signal came after China recorded its biggest monthly trade surplus in five-and-a-half years, according to official data released over the weekend…Chinese exports rose 7% in May from a year earlier while imports fell by 1.6%, suggesting weakness in the domestic economy…
Strong economic data lifted Japan’s Nikkei to a fresh three-month high, putting its gains over the past six trading sessions above 3%…revised Q1 GDP came in at an annualized rate of 6.7%, surpassing initial estimates of 5.9%…
Europe
Trading was thin in Europe today with public sector holidays in both France and Germany…European markets are aiming for their 10th straight week of gains…
North America
The Dow is up 19 points as of 7:30 am Pacific…the TSX has added 36 points while the Venture is 4 points higher at 991…
Canada’s largest annual oil and gas trade show gets under way tomorrow in Calgary in conjunction with an industry conference dedicated to heavy oil, which the country has in greater abundance than anywhere else on the planet…organizers estimate that more than 60,000 attendees will flock to Calgary from around the world to visit nearly 2,000 corporate exhibitors’ booths at the Global Petroleum Show…separately, some 1,100 participants are expected to register for the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Heavy Oil Conference, a symposium for peer-reviewed technical papers…
Venture 3-Year Weekly Chart Update
The Venture continues to look very healthy from a technical standpoint with many factors in its favor at the moment, suggesting a strong Q3 is on the way despite the doom and gloom from various pundits…buy pressure remains strong, RSI(14) continues to follow an uptrend line and has found support around the 50% level, and the Index is out-performing Gold which is another bullish sign…the Venture’s rising 200-day moving average (SMA) has joined other strong support at 970, and an important reversal to the upside in the 300-day SMA appears likely over the next several weeks…this is not to the time to forget about this market and head to the Caribbean for the next six months, as Brent Cook is telling investors…there are some great opportunities entering Q3…selectivity, as always, is key…
True Gold Mining Inc. (TGM, TSX-V) Update
True Gold Mining’s (TGM, TSX-V) step-out drilling at the Karma Gold Project’s Nami deposit has intersected 29.5 g/t Au over 6 m and has extended the deposit 250 m north, along a corridor 150 m wide…this previously untested extension has the potential, TGM stated this morning, to add an additional 50% to the strike length of the current Nami deposit outlined in the Feasibility Study…the deposit remains open for further expansion…Gold mineralization at Nami exhibits the same intrusive-hosted, shallow-dipping structural style found within Kao and North Kao, Karma’s two largest Gold deposits, where continuity has been demonstrated over strike a length of 1.6 km…TGM is up 2.5 cents at 41 cents through the first hour of trading…
Ceiba Energy Services Inc. (CEB, TSX-V) Update
Our last update on Ceiba Energy Services (CEB, TSX-V) was a month ago (May 9), after a confirmed breakout above 60 cents, and since then CEB has performed according to script with a gain of nearly 30%…it closed Friday at 80 cents…a confirmed breakout has also occurred above the Fib. 61.8% level at 70 cents…some near-term consolidation is possible but watch for strong support around 70 cents and the 10 and 20-day moving averages (SMA’s)…Ceiba provides specialized environmental services for companies in the energy sector and achieved record revenues for the quarter ended March 31…CEB is unchanged at 80 cents as of 7:30 am Pacific…
Grand Prairie Energy Services Inc. (GPE, TSX-V)
Another hot energy play has been Grand Prairie Energy Services (GPE, TSX-V), worthy of our readers’ consideration…GPE has more than doubled so far this year, and the company reported net income of $1.4 million on total revenue of $5.3 million for its first quarter ended March 31…
GPE gained 6 cents last week to close at 48 cents…it’s unchanged at 48 cents as of 7:30 am Pacific and faces Fib. measured resistance at 52 cents…there is also Fib. support at 40 cents, just above the rising 50-day SMA…as always, perform your own due diligence…
Silver Short-Term Chart Update
Importantly, Silver continues to find support just below $19 at or just above the top of a downtrend line…this is similar to the Venture pattern during the fourth quarter of last year when it, too, found support at the top of a downtrend line…RSI(2) on this 3-year weekly chart hit extreme oversold levels recently and is currently at 40%…watch for a bottoming pattern in the SS…overall sell pressure has been in decline since early 2013…these are encouraging signs…the support band between $17.50 and $19.50 should therefore hold while the next major chart resistance is $22…
Silver Long-Term Chart Update
This 11-year monthly chart confirms that the metal has exceptional support immediately below $20…note that Silver has two downtrend lines it needs to break above…if and when Silver clears stiff resistance at $26, watch out – you’ll want to back up the truck and load up…the COT structure, as mentioned at the top of today’s Morning Musings, has become very favorable, suggesting Silver is gearing up for a strong move over the summer…
Note: John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in TGM, CEB or GPE.
Haven’t posted a comment in a while and as always enjoy your website. Can you say frustration with this market..my portfolio is taking a nice hit because I believe that gold is money and small cap companies that have oz in the ground will be great in the long run will do great. It’s just so fustrating when you is the overall market to continue to go up….via share buybacks but when you look at the numbers like IBM. ….earnings go up not because the are doing well but doing share purchases hand over fist to make insiders rich….yes I call it the way it is…..This market is like 2008….I just returned from Europe and let me tell you the magority of people are not happy with what is going on. I would like reader’s feed back. Am I crazy or just the market.
Comment by alex s — June 9, 2014 @ 8:56 am
NO Alex you’re not crazy. The market doesn’t make any sense. In the long run your portfolio will bounce back, but who knows when that will happen. In 2012 I noticed that precious metal stocks where falling out of favor, so I diversified. I kept my good precious metals companies that were oversold and dumped the rest. I’ve added a few since but I sold most of them when the company came out with news. You know the saying, buy on rumor sell on news. Personally I don’t like playing like that, but since gold is out of favor, my hand was forced. Always take your profit in these circumstances. I’ve been playing the pot stocks lately which have given me some good returns. That is where most of the money is going. If you don’t have any issues regarding pot, you should check some of those companies out. But don’t buy just yet since most of them are in overbought territory.
Comment by Chris — June 9, 2014 @ 9:30 am
Thanks Chris. …..The fun you thing is that I worked in the financial sector and left to be a chef
…lol..yes a chef. But the bottom line is I put. My money where I the kids long there money is to be made and when you see.all.these large caps buying shares hand.over fist to increase there periodically when there earning and sales are.going down…yes orhave to say hmm . ……look at the IBM and.micros9ft or.exxon……I mean really look at there balance.sheets and you will see.one thing…..share buy backs at billions of dollars does.not me your growing your business. This is my view and call me.wrong but growing a business is about actually.growing your.business. I my.opnion and that is.all it.is …is that gold.is money…it is finite. …can’t.be printed…..so I’m long.gold.and.gold.small.cap and if I’m down 50.percent.i will accept it but at the end of the day I think I will.be right.
Comment by alex s — June 9, 2014 @ 10:15 am
@Alex: All that Fed money has to go somewhere. I don’t know how many times this year I’ve sat in disbelief watching a company’s share price mysteriously rise after reporting bad earnings or sales. 10 years ago, reporting bad earnings or missed sales got you a clobbering you would never forget. At the end of the day, gold will have its moment. You can’t print trillions of dollars and not have some sort of crisis. Regarding your “growing your business” comment, it’s one of the main reasons I got interested in the pot sector. It’s just good old fashion business. A good product that will always have customers. As of now I am trading most of them, but once the initials hiccups get out of the way, I think it’s a sector that will generate tons of money. That is when I will go on the long side. BTW: Being a chef is nothing to be ashamed of. My father is a chef, and the main reason he entered the profession was because it puts a smile on peoples faces. Who the hell doesn’t like eating good food?
Comment by Chris — June 9, 2014 @ 12:15 pm
Chris- any opinion on potential pot grower,Caven Ventures, CVN. V. Ive been sitting on this one at a nickle for over a year.
Comment by Greg J. — June 9, 2014 @ 1:57 pm
@Greg J: Personally I wouldn’t buy Caven. They are still early in the game. That can all change. For those interested in pot, you have to look at companies that have an MMPR license. Health Canada has granted 13 of them.
Here they are: Bedrocan Canada Inc., Canna Farms Ltd., CanniMed Ltd., Delta 9 Bio-Tech Inc., In The Zone Produce Ltd, Mettrum Ltd, MedReleaf Corp, OrganiGram Inc, The Peace Naturals Project Inc, ThunderBird Biomedical Inc., Tilray, Tweed Inc, Whistler Medical Marijuana Corp.
Out of all these companies, only Tweed is trading on the market. Another company that is trading and will we receive their license soon in Supreme Pharmaceuticals. They expect to get their license once they finish upgrading one of their warehouses. They should get it August/September.
Many more will be added to the above list. So go to Health Canada’s website to keep track. I hope this helps.
Comment by Chris — June 10, 2014 @ 9:33 am