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May 15, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,291 and $1,307 so far today…as of 7:45 am Pacific, bullion is down $5 an ounce at $1,301…Silver is off 20 cents at $19.54…Copper is down 2 cents at $3.14…Crude Oil has retreated 55 cents to $101.82 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off its highs of the day and is now almost flat at 80.06…

Total Global physical Silver demand rose by 13% in 2013 to an all-time high, according to “World Silver Survey 2014″, released yesterday by the Silver Institute…this was primarily driven by the 76% increase in retail investment in bars and coins coupled with a sturdy recovery in jewelry and silverware fabrication…on the supply side, Silver scrap fell by 24%, experiencing the largest drop on record to reach its lowest level since 2001…the Silver price averaged $23.79 in 2013, the third highest nominal average price on record, in a particularly volatile year for the entire precious metals complex…

Total physical demand for Silver stood at a record 1,081 million ounces last year…the largest component of that demand – industrial applications – dipped by less than 1% to 586.6 million ounces, to account for 54% of total physical Silver demand…Asia, however, experienced a 3% increase in Silver industrial demand, led by China, where a continued recovery in the electrical and electronics sector, along with gains in the Chinese ethylene oxide industry, took total Asian industrial off-take to a new high…Japan also experienced gains in Silver industrial demand…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite fell 23 points overnight to 2025 while Japan’s Nikkei was off 108 points to 14298…Japan’s first quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.9%, its fastest pace since Q3 2011…

Europe

European markets are down moderately in late trading overseas after some lackluster growth data from France, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal and the euro zone as a whole…investor concerns are centering around deflation in Europe, hefty valuations and of course ongoing tensions in Ukraine…in an ECB survey released today, professional forecasters cut their outlook for inflation in 2016, leading to fears that the region could be heading for stagnation…

North America

The Dow is down 137 points as of 7:45 am Pacific…U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly tumbled to a pre-recession low, but countering that positive news this morning was U.S. industrial output which fell at its fastest rate in more than 18 months in April…production at the nation’s mines, factories and utilities slipped 0.6% last month, the largest decline since August 2012, after an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in March, the Federal Reserve stated this morning…consumer prices ticked up 0.3% as expected, recording their largest increase in 10 months in April – a little inflationary kick is actually good news…

The TSX has slipped 111 points through the first 75 minutes of trading while the Venture is off 9 points at 983…

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Update

The grades reported yesterday by Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) in first-ever drilling at its Rodadero North Project in central Sonora State, Mexico, were almost astonishing…as high as 245 oz/ton Ag within a 7-metre zone that averaged 65 oz/t Ag or 2,010 g/tGGI produced a very pleasant surprise for the market and was rewarded as the stock pushed through resistance at 24 cents to a new 52-week high of 27 cents…if you look at the map of Rodadero below, you can see how this developing situation could have some serious “legs” to it with so many targets…the second hole is being drilled 50 m to the south of Silver Eagle SE-14-01…we heard an interesting comment from one investor yesterday – Garibaldi should have called the Silver Eagle target the “Silver Beast” given the whopping grades in this first hole that are also so close to surface…

There are not only high-grade Silver targets in this area, identified through extensive mapping, sampling and the use of hyperspectral remote sensing technology, but high-grade Gold possibilities as well…with GGI also finding success at La Patilla, and also the Grizzly in the Sheslay Valley where the company controls more than half of the mineralized corridor outlined to date, the outlook for Garibaldi has never been better in our view…

Below is the map showing GGI’s Rodadero North and South Projects as taken from the GGI web site…

GGI Rodadero Project Map

GGI 4-Month Daily Chart

Below is an updated GGI chart from John that shows a confirmed breakout appears to be unfolding, driven by yesterday’s strong news and high volume…the next measured Fib. resistance level is not a price target, just a theoretical level based on Fib. analysis, but John’s Fib. numbers have proven to be quite accurate…GGI is up 1.5 cents at 26.5 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific

GGI40

Doubleview Capital Corp.’s (DBV, TSX-V) “Discovery” That Investors May Have Overlooked Yesterday

Doubleview Capital’s (DBV, TSX-V) news release yesterday seemed about as long as the Golden Bear access road, and investors were given little time to digest it, which partly explains why some important parts in our view were overlooked by many investors – hence the unfortunate sell-off yesterday…all it takes in today’s market is just one trigger-happy investor to hit the sell button, perhaps for no reason related to whether results are good or bad – as Prosper Gold Corp. (PGX, TSX-V) discovered last October – and selling begets selling…we didn’t have time to fully digest DBV’s news until last evening and we’re still conducting research on it…we hope to shed much more light on this Hat Property news by early next week…

Interestingly, buried almost at the very bottom of DBV’s lengthy news release yesterday, were the words, “The company is working closely with local contractors and stakeholders with a view to resuming property work in June (the highlighted part is our emphasis)…DBV still has money in the bank and every reason to get back to the Hat as soon as possible for more drilling – “the complete drilling outfit remains on the property” as reported yesterday – for reasons stated below…

DBV had a couple of “misses” in their most recent drilling but they also made what could prove to be an important new discovery – drill hole HAT-12 (from a depth of 146 m to 436 m) passed throughthe top section of a syeno-gabbro intrusion (Sheslay red stock) that has not previously been recognized in the district.”  That’s an important development and it could be hugely significant as it may represent an important change in the Hat model…and the question is, what’s the potential size and shape of this red stock intrusive that could host higher grades?…you’ll notice that in HAT-12, which returned a 110-m interval grading 0.31% Cu, 0.38 g/t Au and 0.54% CuEq, within a wider section that returned 283 m of 0.31% CuEq, the Gold grades were better than the Copper grades…this hole is different in some important respects than any other drilled so far at the Hat, and it was collared 152 m west and 50 m south of discovery hole HAT-11, and inclined at -60 degrees to the south…very interesting, and more needs to be learned…in every round of drilling so far, Doubleview has moved this property forward…President and CEO Farshad Shirvani is a bulldog and we suspect he’s more fired up than ever after these latest results and the model that could be emerging here…

Besides the intrigue of HAT-12, an important part of the “Big Picture” remains the fact that the Hat is showing strong volume potential with the length of the “Lisle Zone” (Anomaly B) 1 km, and it remains open in all directions…

Investors who were hoping for a “glory” hole or a significant discovery at Anomaly C, more than 2 km from the original discovery at Anomaly B, were no doubt disappointed  yesterday…porphyry deposits have a complex nature, and it’s critical (albeit difficult sometimes) for investors to look beyond just the basic numbers to see how the model might be taking shape…DBV really does have a tiger by the tail at the Hat…they face some significant challenges but they’ve so far shown the ability to overcome any obstacles that have come before them…

With respect to Anomaly C, perhaps DBV has made a “technical” discovery with HAT-14…it’s a hole that reminds us a little of HAT-06 from the very first round of drilling that hit the edge of the mineralized porphyry at Anomaly B…HAT-14 was drilled southerly at -45 degrees with total length of 336.8 metres…it encountered low Copper-Gold mineralization throughout including a 26-m section, from 242 to 268 m, that averaged 0.21% Cu and 0.08 g/t Au…much more work needs to be completed at Anomaly C where very high chargeability readings have been recorded…as DBV stated yesterday, Interpretation of drill hole analytical and other data from holes HAT-14 and HAT-15 appears to indicate that Anomaly C geology and mineralization is similar to that found at Anomaly B, and may be a continuation of the Lisle zone.”

DBV is down 1.5 cents at 23.5 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific but there’s no heavy volume sell-off this morning…technically, Fib. support is strong at 23 cents while the 20-cent area is another support level as witnessed last month…

Prosper Gold Corp. (PGX, TSX-V)

The Sheslay district is just beginning to heat up in our view, and stepping up to the plate for the beginning of what could be a long 2014 drill program is Prosper Gold…with the most advanced property in the district – the Star Project – PGX commences drilling any day now as indicated in their latest news release, and what’s critical is that right off the bat they’re going to begin stepping out from the Star deposit…as we’ve repeatedly stated, this is a barn burner of a property and it’s in the same hands that discovered the multi-million ounce Blackwater Gold-Silver deposit…we’ll have a lot more on Prosper and the Star Project next week…PGX is up a penny at 48 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific

Midlands Minerals Corp. (MEX, TSX-V)

We mentioned Midlands Minerals (MEX, TSX-V) last week when it trading at 2.5 cents, and yesterday it was the second most active stock on the Venture with 4.5 million shares changing hands…the company announced encouraging results from underground sampling from one of its prospects at the Parlozi Project in Serbia which MEX has optioned from Reservior Minerals (RMC, TSX-V)…chip sampling provided a true width of 6 m grading 670.6 g/t Ag, 20.8% Pb, 0.13% Zn and 0.44 g/t Au…MEX will be commencing a drill program later this month to test the downdip extension of this mineralized zone…

The 91 sq. km Parlozi Project covers an extensive area of ancient mining that has received limited modern exploration…the Phase 1 program will test two out of six targets at Parlozi, searching for high-grade, Silver-rich, Zinc-lead veins and larger replacement zones in carbonate rocks – including an area with historic resources…MEX is well-funded with nearly $3 million in its treasury…it also has nearly 200 million shares outstanding, but at 3 cents there is certainly significant upside potential here for patient investors – especially leading up the drill program and anticipation of results…

Below is a 4-year weekly MEX chart…buy pressure has recently replaced sell pressure (dominant through most of 2013) as indicated by the CMF…fundamentally and technically, MEX is showing good potential entering the summer…MEX is unchanged at 3 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific

MEX4

Madalena Energy Inc. (MVN, TSX-V) Chart Update

We continue to keep a close eye on some of the top plays in the energy sector on the Venture, and certainly Madalena Energy (MVN, TSX-V) is one of those…below is an updated 2.5-year weekly chart from John that shows how strong support has been holding around the 60-cent level…

MVN4

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI and PGX.  Jon also holds a share position in DBV.

 

 

 

 

21 Comments

  1. So are we looking at perhaps July for another round of news, assuming the drills start up again in June?

    Comment by Steve — May 15, 2014 @ 7:04 am

  2. Steve, I suspect there will be news sooner than that from DBV…it would be a mistake to underestimate Farshad is any way, based on how things have developed over the last number of months, and given his grit, determination and faith in this property…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 15, 2014 @ 7:15 am

  3. I find it interesting that John no longer holds any DBV stock, given the nature of the coverage BMR has given it. Care to enlighten us?

    Comment by Paul — May 15, 2014 @ 7:26 am

  4. Venture getting hammered today (along with everything else).

    Comment by Tony T — May 15, 2014 @ 8:02 am

  5. Its hammered because gold and silver got hammered, so tired of it!!

    Comment by Yvonne Kindström — May 15, 2014 @ 11:54 am

  6. Although John may have personal reasons for selling DBV, I’m a little curious too…as Jon stated above, “it would be a mistake to underestimate Farshad…”

    Comment by Steve — May 15, 2014 @ 12:30 pm

  7. Exactly – there seems to be a discrepancy between words and actions…credibility comes into play for me when I see this kind of thing happen.

    Comment by Paul — May 15, 2014 @ 1:44 pm

  8. Paul, if I may set a couple things straight here, John spends his days doing charts. He looks at the market from a technical perspective, and he’s very good at what he does. In selling some DBV, he was following his own chart that we posted at BMR because if you’ll recall, his (short-term) Fib. level was 37 cents. So if you want to talk about “credibility”, I’d love to have that conversation because John has enormous credibility in my opinion in terms of the accuracy of his charts. If you’ve been looking at his DBV charts, they also show strong support around the 20-cent level. So he made a trade based purely on short-term technical considerations, nothing to do with the fundamentals of the play which, I might add, are extremely strong. In fact, personally, I’m even more bullish on the Hat Property today than I was previously given the new information yesterday regarding the Red stock in hole 12. Overall, BMR is as much behind what’s emerging at the Hat and the Sheslay Valley as we ever have, because we all know it’s going to emerge as a world class district. We’re entering a very exciting period here, and whether John decides to buy or sell some stock based purely on technical considerations, that’s his personal business. Don’t read anything into it, other than the fact he understands technical analysis extremely well. On the note regarding Farshad that I wrote, yes, it would be a very serious mistake IMHO to underestimate him. So it’s time I think to back up the truck and load up – just a personal opinion (and technically, the support band runs a few cents on either side of .20).

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 15, 2014 @ 2:05 pm

  9. Jon any comment on ABR effect from DBV Drilling to date, red the news but i was so busy with client this week, didn’t have the time to go in deep in the new, maybe i have to much share of ABR, loll

    Have a nice evening,

    Martin

    Comment by Martin — May 15, 2014 @ 2:18 pm

  10. Again, Martin, as per my previous message, given the information regarding the Red stock yesterday, which completely went over the heads of most market participants, the case for this part of the Sheslay corridor has only gotten stronger IMHO. We’re continuing to do some more research on this, but keep in mind, the Red stock at Red Chris is very deep rooted – they drilled one hole 1 km long (1000 meters) a few years back that ran 1% Cu plus excellent gold values. This system at the Hat is trending to the east-southeast, right toward the Hackett….looking exceptionally good for ABR, and for GGI for that matter which holds Hat East contiguous to the Hackett….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 15, 2014 @ 2:34 pm

  11. Thanks for the comments Jon. My apologies on the credibility comment – I see that he made that call on the 2nd – is he still seeing the next resistance level at .53?

    Comment by Paul — May 15, 2014 @ 2:54 pm

  12. Sorry i was disconnect a bit, girl friends, clients, and so and so, ggi are superstar of exploration, I am in ABR, AIX and PGX all the way, can not stand i had GGI at 10 cent last year now 250% more!! I am lest bullshit on aix thinking they could miss the spot, maybye i will have to becoeme consultant with them :-p

    Comment by Martin — May 15, 2014 @ 3:18 pm

  13. @ Paul et al
    Jon’s comment re my selling DBV beat me to it. I agree with what Jon stated and would like to add a few things.

    The TA I present on the charts I firmly believe in to the extent I let it guide my trading completely. These venture stocks are for trading, they are not suitable to buy and hold…that is a good way to lose your shirt. If I sell my position in a stock it is because it has met my target or is underperforming.

    DBV met my target. I watched it move up but it stalled around 36c. The FIB Target was 37c so I felt that was close enough so I sold the majority of shares at 36 and 36.5c. This does not mean I don’t like the stock anymore, I just expect that when it becomes O/B and at the Target….SELL it. To make a profit is why I am in the market.

    I have been trading stocks for 57 years and during that time I have learned a little…not everything by any means…but I have learned not to fall in love with a stock and to make my own decisions about when to trade.

    I suggest to all our readers…develop your own methodology for stock evaluation and trading. IT DOES NOT MATTER HOW OR WHAT OTHER TRADERS DO.

    Do your own DD, make your own decisions.

    Have a good night all.

    Comment by John BMR — May 15, 2014 @ 3:46 pm

  14. John: when would you enter DBV again? ABR?

    Comment by STEVEN1 — May 15, 2014 @ 4:24 pm

  15. @Steven1: I think it’s going to touch its lower Bollinger Band, which is around the high teens. So if you can get some around there I think you will be in great shape going forward.

    Comment by Chris — May 15, 2014 @ 5:18 pm

  16. Steven
    The general rule of thumb is you buy at or near Support and sell at or near Resistance, OK?

    Comment by John BMR — May 15, 2014 @ 6:16 pm

  17. John… well now you have blown the bag wide open…. 57 years??
    are u really trying to tell us that you arent 20 anymore:)
    the trade vs buy and hold.. I am the poster child for that.
    go from a comfortable retirement to have to work for more years…
    Bert kept me smiling and laughing about it tho!!

    John… the real problem is the speculation and the excitement of the story which GGI has and DBV had.

    there is no chart for that… but as DBV indicated the top ends are more predictable than the bottom ends…

    How do ‘target’ a play like GGI especially when they are just waking up?? I reference Goldquest… as well as age old physics – what goes up……

    thx in advance guys

    Comment by Jeremy — May 16, 2014 @ 4:02 am

  18. well said John…reminds me of the old saying on the $treet…Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.

    Comment by zippy — May 16, 2014 @ 5:09 am

  19. Ive been watching TWTR share price since John sold his “whack” at $55.. $32 today!!

    Comment by Greg J. — May 16, 2014 @ 11:53 am

  20. Good for him… Well done…

    Comment by Tom — May 16, 2014 @ 3:58 pm

  21. Guys as always do your own homework and make your own decisions. John does some excellent work. Investing in mining stocks is always a bit of a gamble. You never know what will come back in the drill hole. These guy have not got much praise for finding DBV below 10 cents.

    Cheers,

    James

    Comment by James — May 16, 2014 @ 4:15 pm

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