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May 23, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,286 and $1,296 so far today, entering a three-day U.S. long weekend…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $1 an ounce at $1,293…Silver is off a nickel at $19.43…Copper is up 3 pennies to $3.17…TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes commented, “With Copper concentrate exports from Indonesia still in limbo, Chinese Copper demand apparently quite healthy, and reports that China’s State Reserve Bureau purchased 200,000 tonnes of Copper in recent months, the much discussed 300,000-tonne 2014 surplus may have just disappeared.”  Crude Oil is up 64 cents to $104.38 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed one-tenth of a point to 80.35…

Barclays has been hit with a $44 million (U.S.) fine after one of its traders manipulated the setting of the price of Gold in order to avoid paying out on a client order…the UK Financial Conduct Authority today said it was imposing the penalty on the British lender after the trader, Daniel James Plunkett, sent out a burst of orders aimed at moving the price of the yellow metal…the actions occurred just a day after the bank became the first institution to be fined in the sweeping Libor and Euribor rate-rigging probes…

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has outlined his plans for a new “Eurasian union”, as he slammed Western powers over sanctions…the Eurasian Economic Union would comprise former Soviet states Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as Russia – and possibly also Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, he told CNBC during a session Friday at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (perhaps Ukraine will be added later?)…the Union would have closer ties between Russia and China at its heart, according to Putin, as Russia turns away from former Western allies after their dispute over Ukraine’s borders…Russia is “going to focus on Eurasian investment” from now on, according to Putin…Gazprom, the state-backed gas giant, just signed a $400 billion, 30-year deal to supply gas to China, which Putin called the country’s “best result” in the last few years…meanwhile, Putin said he will respect “the will of the Ukrainian people” in presidential elections this weekend and would work with whoever is elected – sure, whatever you say, Mr. Putin – we believe you…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian markets were higher overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite gaining 13 points while Japan’s Nikkei added 124 points…

Europe

European shares were mixed today…Germany’s closely watched Ifo business climate survey for May was slightly weaker than expected, but revised GDP figures for Q1 came in as expected at 0.8%…

North America

The Dow is up 53 points as of 8:30 am Pacific

The stock market’s fear gauge has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year, as investors drop their bets on large stock swings..the Volatiity Index (VIX) hit a 14-month low yesterday of 11.68 before closing at 12.03…many traders say they detect little fear in the market lately…they cite a financial outlook that is widely perceived to pose little risk of an economic or market downturn: near-record stock prices, low interest rates, steady if unspectacular U.s. growth and an accommodating Federal Reserve…the VIX’s three-month average this week hit 14.1, a level that before 2013’s stock rally was last consistently seen in 2007…in the past decade, the VIX has averaged 20.08, including a 2008 financial-crisis spike above 80 and a 2011 euro-crisis jump to 48…

Meanwhile, average monthly trading volume at OTC Markets Group, which handles trading in shares that aren’t listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, has risen 40% this year in dollar terms from a year ago to a record $23.5 billion…the renewed interest in a market that used to be known as the pink sheets, because of the colored pieces of paper once used to record prices for unlisted stocks, shows investors are ramping up risk in a bid to boost returns as major U.S. markets are hovering near all-time highs and stock valuations have risen above historical norms…

The TSX is up 5 points through the first two hours of trading while the Venture has gained 4 points to 983…

TSX 5-Year Weekly Chart

The TSX continues to trade within an upsloping channel in place since the summer of last year with the 50-day moving average (SMA) also acting as strong support…however, RSI(14) has a negative divergence with the Index, and the sustainability of the RSI uptrend line is also a matter of concern…

TSX15

GoldQuest Mining Corp. (GQC, TSX-V)

Whenever GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) is drilling in the DR, exciting things can happen…the company commenced a 10,000 m drill program more than two weeks ago, and technically the stock has found strong support in the immediate vicinity of its 200-day moving average (SMA) which has flattened out at 30 cents and potentially could reverse to the upside over the summer…GQC has a history of explosive moves, even in the midst of sluggish overall markets as was witnessed in the spring of 2012…

Below is a 2+ year weekly GQC chart…weak buy pressure has replaced sell pressure which had been dominant for nearly a year-and-a-half since late 2012…GQC is unchanged at 31 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

GQC117

Blackbird Energy Inc. (BBI, TSX-V)

Energy plays have been drawing substantial investor interest on the Venture this year, and one of the strong performers has been Blackbird Energy (BBI, TSX-V)…it has recently backed off from its highest levels since early 2011, but watch for strong support around the 20-day SMA (24 cents) and the 61.8% Fib. retracement level (23 cents)…BBI is off half a penny at 25.5 cents through the first 90 minutes of trading…

BBI 6-Month Daily Chart

BBI1(1)

Highbank Resources Ltd. (HBK, TSX-V) Update

Highbank Resources (HBK, TSX-V) continues to make progress with with its business plan after receiving all the necessary permitting recently to allow for production at its Swamp Point North aggregate project near Prince Rupert…on April 22, Highbank received written notice from Fisheries and Oceans Canada that it has accepted the company’s Dec. 4, 2013, proposal to construct a barge loading facility, comprising barge moorage, barge mooring dolphins and a pile-supported aggregate conveyor, as well as a barge landing ramp, on Portland Canal…site work is commencing prior to production…last month, the company closed the first tranche ($2.7 million) of a planned $4 million debenture financing…HBK has an excellent opportunity for success – how effectively they execute their strategy, of course, will be key, but so far they have shown the ability to make things happen…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Below is an updated 10-year monthly HBK chart from John…patient investors could do well here…note how buy pressure also recently replaced sell pressure which was dominant since the beginning of 2012…the overall technical pattern remains positive…rising 100 and 200-day SMA’s provide solid support at 13.5 cents and 11 cents, respectively, in the event of any sudden pullbacks…HBK closed at 15.5 cents yesterday…

HBK7(1)

Note:  John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in GQC, BBI or HBK.

10 Comments

  1. Nice bounce off support for the venture this week (great close today!!)

    Comment by tony t — May 23, 2014 @ 1:04 pm

  2. Added to my PGX again today, Jon have you seen the porphyry model page 16 – 17 of DBV, any comment on who might be be biggest winner in the area?

    Also AIX as been quiet recently both on the market and in new, would’nt it be nice to have a interview with them on how they are thinking their approach on the ground.

    This week i have completed my shelsay porfolio, if this area is as prolific as we think we will be friend for life
    😉

    Comment by Martin — May 23, 2014 @ 2:43 pm

  3. Me also…” friend for life”.. that is too funny!!

    Comment by Greg J. — May 23, 2014 @ 6:40 pm

  4. Hi Martin, yes I have seen the porphyry model DBV included in their presentation. It fits with how things appear to be emerging there with the Sheslay Red Stock. Who might be the biggest winner in the area? That remains to be seen – each of the three “majors” – PGX, GGI, DBV – has something different going for it, and ABR and AIX are going to make a lot of noise over the summer and should perform very well. Immediately, I expect GGI’s situation in Mexico to be potentially explosive. We’ll be elaborating on this in an eAlert tomorrow.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 24, 2014 @ 12:19 pm

  5. I don’t see DBV, as major player just cause they are drilling, Farshad is really delivering, Jon could we get a interview from Kyler Hardy and Mike England make sure they do the right thing.

    Comment by martin — May 24, 2014 @ 6:58 pm

  6. Martin, we’ll certainly be hearing a lot I’m sure from Kyler, who’s on the ground right now in the Sheslay Valley, and Mike, who’s got a great situation developing with Alix. With regard to DBV, it’s not that they’re just drilling – they have a deposit at the Hat, all the evidence tells us, the question going forward is around tonnage and grade. Still very early.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 24, 2014 @ 7:12 pm

  7. Those that think DBV is not a major player in the region or aren’t following it really don’t understand what is developing and the geology there. One of my friends has been sending the cumulative data (as more data is received) to a few of his geo friends that have extensive experience with porphyrys and I have seen their comments. They all like what they see and 2 of them actually liked it so much that they bought shares in the company! The market’s opinion on the results is one thing but to the trained geo’s eyes they are interpreted differently with the “big picture” in mind. The market has sold DBV down because it’s expectation was that the big hit would occur but unfortunately it just doesn’t happened that easily. Those that sold should soon realize that they were 1-2 holes from that glory hole discovery and that they should have waited.

    I see DBV as THE major player right now and consequently my Sheshlay Valley holding is only DBV. Everything elese is just too much of a gamble and is just noise to me right now. PGX is the only other company I would consider investing in at this stage until other companies get their act together.

    Expect the next drilling phase for DBV to really deliver. Holes 12 & 13 were meant to hit the good stuff (glory hole) but unfortunately didn’t fully deliver but it did find it! Hole 13 drilled through the top portion of the red rock. The next hole is said to be between holes 12 & 13 and is going to be drilled very deep right into the nose of the syeno gabbro intrusion now that it has been found! The geo magnetic data only helps pin point the general area but then its up to experience and luck to find the source of it. Based on holes 12 and especially 13, Farshad now knows where to drill to deliver in the next round of drilling imo.

    Stay tuned as drilling is about to resume soon!

    Comment by d4 — May 25, 2014 @ 4:09 am

  8. Forgot to mention that Farhad and team have been using the Red Chris deposit as a model due to similarities. Red Chris’s holes down the intrusion gave very high grade mineralization over 1km lengths. Now that DBV has found the Red Stock, the very deep holes down the centre of the intrusion will occur during this next phase. Have a look at Red Chris’ results on their holes into their intrusion.

    Drilling to resume in about a week.

    Comment by d4 — May 25, 2014 @ 4:21 am

  9. Pat, I certainly of course agree with your first sentence — and of course we highlighted recently how the market did not pick up on the importance of the Red Stock in DBV’s latest news. So Farshad is on to something quite significant and the next couple of holes are going to very interesting. I suggest readers check out Jessica Norris’s UBC thesis on the Red Chris from 2012 (you can Google it). DBV has outlined the broad parameters of what should be a high tonnage deposit – the major issue now is improving the grade which so far is below the grade of PGX’s Star Project. I do take issue, however, with your statement that DBV is THE major player in the Sheslay Valley right now because that’s simply not true, the facts do not support that. #1, Prosper has the most advanced property in the district and is in the midst of a 10,000 m drill program. A second rig is also coming on the property in mid-June to drill Pyrrhotite Creek which could easily become a major new discovery by itself. If you don’t own Prosper, you’re making a serious mistake IMHO; #2, GGI has the largest scale package with a growing list of drill targets. In a sense, they’re in the best position of the three because of scale and when they start drilling, they will have the huge advantage of signature comparisons – theories tested by the other two, and the same signatures that produced hits at the Star and the Hat can be drilled at the Grizzly. Financially, DBV is the weakest of the three at the moment, though that could change if DBV hits a big hole on this next round. GGI of course also has a very attractive high-grade Silver and Gold discovery situation unfolding at Rodadero in Mexico, plus a deposit developing at La Patilla. That can only help the company with regard to moving things forward rapidly and aggressively at the Grizzly. And then one cannot underestimate ABR and AIX – they will flex their muscles in due course given the quality of their land packages. Martin has the right idea in terms of strategy – you want to own not one, but all of these companies – a Sheslay portfolio, so to speak. That also spreads the risk.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 25, 2014 @ 5:48 am

  10. Jon- when I say DBV is the major to be in the region, this is based on what we know and most importantly how this is setting up, geo’s opinions (people who know porphyrys and one of them played a major role in the discovery of the Grassberg deposit- largest gold mine and 3rd largest copper mine in the world) and of course some gut feeling! This is not based on land size, number of targets, how many metres drilled, size of drill program, comparison of grades with other companies, etc. We all know one hole can quickly change things and even the “weakest” company with the smallest land package and the least experienced crew can take over as the major player in the region.

    Diversifying reduces the risk but at the expense of diluting profits and you loss the leverage associated with being in less stocks but owning more shares of each. With DBV, I feel its the one to be “all in” for me right now in this region as its the one that should deliver first (possibly in the next phase which is about to start). Once it does, it will leave me in a very good position to diversify into PGX and then maybe a select few of the others only when I can see that there is a high potential of success based on the geology, grades, geologist’s interpretation/opinions, etc and not based on size of land, size of drill program, funding available, etc.

    One must play things based on thier risk tolerance, comfort level and most importanlty their experience. After 17 years of only investing in junior explorers I have learned to place a lot of eggs in one basket when certain criteria are met and its has worked well but these tough makets are making it more difficult. At one point I was juggling approx 20 juniors in my porfolio but now its only down to a select few for the leverage and this is what I found works best for me as the payoff its a lot better if one’s due diligence is right! The odds are against juniors striking it rich but when one finds one that does, it is a life changing experience.

    We just need one of the companies in the region to succeed and all the other companies will reap some profits due to the “area play” effect. I believe that no matter which one people invest in (even the least favorite company), they will make some money for having been in it early before the region attracts the market’s attention…..some will just make a lot more profit than others!

    I also beleive that this is the last phase of drilling where DBV will be using one rig because their next holes into the heart of the red stock should provide amply interest/funding to pursue the company’s aggressive goal of getting a 43-101 out by year end. Farshad has already stated that he wants to have 2-3 rigs going but the first step is proving what he has beleived in is right.

    Comment by d4 — May 25, 2014 @ 6:34 am

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