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June 11, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is trading at a two-week high as it tries to penetrate resistance at $1,260…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is up $2 an ounce at $1,262…Silver is a nickel higher at $19.24…Copper is flat at $3.04…Crude Oil has added 30 cents a barrel to $104.65…OPEC delegates have agreed to roll over the group’s production quota, maintaining the current official production output…the decision comes despite concerns over adequate global supply…Libya has struggled to lift its output amid political turmoil in the country…meanwhile, there are signs that Oil demand is picking up…the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated slightly to 80.78…

Palladium prices are closing in on a 13-year high, reflecting investors’ concerns that a mining strike in the No. 2 producer South Africa will choke off supplies…the metal, which is mainly used in car-exhaust filters, continues to gain traction as investors bet that a prolonged interruption in supplies out of South Africa will lead to a shortage for auto makers this year…

Global economic growth in 2014 is likely to be weaker than expected, with the poor weather in the U.S., financial market turbulence and the Ukrainian issue serving as drags, the World Bank said in its latest World Economic Prospects report released late yesterday…the bank lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2014 to 2.8% from the 3.2% it estimated earlier…at the same time, it left its forecast for 2015 and 2016 broadly unchanged at 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite added 2 points overnight to close at 2055…Japan’s Nikkei rebounded from yesterday’s one-week closing low after the head of the country’s public pension fund, the world’s largest, said the fund will announce a boost to stock and foreign bond investments later this year…

Europe

European markets were down modestly today…

North America

The Dow is off 90 points through the first two hours of trading…politically, big news out of the U.S. last night as House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his GOP Virginia primary race in a stunning upset to Tea Party-backed challenger Dave Brat…Brat, an economics professor and political novice, had latched onto the increasingly hot-button issue of immigration and accused Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the GOP-led House, of supporting immigration legislation that would give “amnesty” to millions of people living illegally in the United States…

Politics take center stage in Canada tomorrow as Ontario voters go to the polls in an election that will likely impact the mining industry in that province, one way or the other…hopefully the good people of Ontario will finally decide that it’s time to replace an inept Liberal government that has wasted billions in taxpayers’ money, through economic mismanagement and corruption, and has put the province’s credit rating at risk with the highest debt-to-revenue ratio in the entire country…nowhere in Canada is there a political party more deserving of a long spell in the wilderness…unfortunately, none of the leaders running for Premier has shown exceptional qualities, so the choice comes down to who’s the best of a disappointing bunch…a Forum Research survey conducted Monday found the Liberals at 42%, the Conservatives at 35% and Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats at 19%…the findings are within the poll’s margin of error so the race could be tighter…Tim Hudak will have to resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives if he can’t win the favor of Ontario voters this time around…

The TSX is down 39 points while the Venture is off 5 points at 982 as of 8:30 am Pacific…a weak currency will help buoy Canada’s economy this year and next, though a slower pace in the housing market will temper the recovery according to a forecast released today by the Royal Bank…its study projects that the economy will expand by 2.4% this year and 2.7% in 2015, driven by heightened demand in the U.S. for Canadian exports…RBC is predicting an 85-cent dollar by the end of next year, which would certainly be a boon for Canadian Gold producers…

From Charles Lammam and Milagros Palacios at the Fraser InstituteTax Freedom Day was Monday (June 9) for the average Canadian family (with two or more people)…it is only from that day on that you start working for yourself and family instead of the government…

The Fraser Institute’s annual Tax Freedom Day calculation is a handy measure of the total tax burden imposed on Canadian families by the federal, provincial and local governments…if you had to pay all your taxes up front, you would give government each and every dollar you earned before tax freedom day…the later the Tax Freedom Day, the heavier the tax burden…

In 2014, the Fraser Institute estimates that the average Canadian family will pay $43,435 in total taxes…that works out to 43.5% of annual income, which, on the calendar, translates into Tax Freedom Day falling on June 9…

Updated Copper Chart

Copper encountered resistance as expected around $3.20 and has “unwound” to just above the $3 a pound level where it should bottom out above the important mid-March low…below is an updated 6-month daily chart from John…

COPPER14

Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM, TSX-V) Delivers PEA For Coffee Project

Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) is stronger this morning, buoyed by robust data in an initial Preliminary Economic Assessment for its 100%-owned Coffee Project south of Dawson City…at a Gold price of $1,250 per ounce (U.S.) and using a 95-cent exchange rate, Coffee generates a pre-tax NPV at a 5% discount rate of more than $500 million and an IRR of 33%…further, the mine could become a significant Yukon Gold producer, yielding close to 450,000 ounces in the first two years and producing an average of 167,000 ounces annually over the life of mine at an all-in sustaining cash cost of $688 (U.S.) per ounce of GoldKAM is up 13 cents at 85 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

Abcourt Mines Inc. (ABI, TSX-V) 

Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) continues to make progress with its Elder Mine near Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec…the company expects to reach full production (150,000 tonnes per year) in the second half of this year, as reported Monday…in the lead-up to commercial production, from July last year to March of this year, Abcourt has generated total revenue from Gold and Silver sales of just over $7 million…

Technically, Abcourt continues to threaten to break out of a long-term downsloping channel…with a further ramping of production at Elder, which is showing high Gold recoveries in excess of 96%, it’s reasonable to expect ABI to be a strong performer during the second of this year…

ABI3(1)

Critical Elements Corp. (CRE, TSX-V) Update

Another company with an interesting property in Quebec to keep an eye on is Critical Elements Corp. (CRE, TSX-V), which we’ve mentioned in this space…the company reported last month that it has started shipping samples of lithium concentrate to a number of users for analysis and validation of the product specifications…the concentrate samples have a low iron content, which is specifically required by certain users…validation of the Rose project material by some of the largest consumers of lithium concentrate with low iron content is part of the process of setting up long-term off-take contracts…

Technically, CRE has formed a bullish ascending triangle and appears well-positioned for an encouraging second half of 2014…as always, perform your own due diligence…CRE is off half a penny at 20.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

CRE2

Note:  John, Terry and Jon do not hold share positions in KAM, ABI or CRE.

5 Comments

  1. Nice rally on the venture today Jon, everything else in the red, could be,hopefully building some momentum into the summer.?

    Comment by Tom — June 11, 2014 @ 12:48 pm

  2. Tom, I believe the gold market has turned. I’ve been following GDXJ which has been picking up speed these past few days. If we can break $46, the high posted in March, we are in good shape going forward into the second half of the year. It closed today at $37.46. I believe something is going to break during the summer; even a bank might go under. Japan is done; China is in serious trouble; Middle East is in chaos; Europe, forget about it; Canada’s economy is not going anywhere and has a major housing bubble, Moody’s cut our banks’ debt to negative today. Hell, the whole word is in chaos. Where do you think smart money is going to place some of their cash?

    Comment by Chris — June 11, 2014 @ 1:53 pm

  3. Chris let’s not forget the us, in my opinion have been fudging there numbers for a couple of years now, there in trouble as well, metals and there stocks will pull away shortly, and boy I think they better start building more jails because the crooks are starting to get caught almost daily now.

    Comment by Tom — June 11, 2014 @ 3:20 pm

  4. Pretty much sums it up… a global mess…!!

    Comment by Greg J. — June 11, 2014 @ 3:22 pm

  5. The US is the major offender. But at least they do not try to hide it. They are a Banana Republic and they are proud of it, at least the government is. Five years ago Bernanke and the government said, if you paid close attention to the language they used, they were going to prop up the market and fudge the numbers as much as possible until they got the results they were looking for. I truly believe that they believed that QE was going to work. I don’t think they expected to be in the mess they are in now. Now they are back pedalling and unwinding QE, or so they say, but it’s going to make everything worse since the whole world was addicted to that cheap money coming out of the Federal Reserve. BTW, I don’t believe they are unwinding QE. They are increasing it; and they are using Belgium to mask their actions.

    Comment by Chris — June 11, 2014 @ 3:46 pm

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