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September 16, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,231 and $1,243 so far today…as of 8:15 am Pacific, bullion is flat at $1,233 and hovering near an 8-month low as investors position themselves for tomorrow’s Fed decision and the timing of the first U.S. rate hike in 8 years…Silver is unchanged at $18.65…Copper is 2 pennies higher at $3.12…declines by Copper may be limited as workers are set to strike next week at Escondida in Chile, the largest mine for the metal…Crude Oil is up $1.11 a barrel to $94.03 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 84.23…

The Fed’s meeting begins today and wraps up tomorrow…a growing belief among traders/investors that the Fed could signal it may begin raising rates sooner than mid-2015, the current consensus target, has helped the U.S. Dollar Index climb for 9 straight weeks – so a “sell on news” scenario could easily unfold tomorrow even if the Fed takes on a more hawkish tone by removing the reference to “considerable time” before any rate increase…the Dollar Index has shown resistance as predicted at the 84.50 Fib. level…at some point very soon it will need to unwind temporarily overbought conditions, though that doesn’t rule out one more spike to the upside before a healthy pullback sets in…the strength in the greenback has really put pressure on commodities over the last couple of months…in euro terms, Gold continues to perform quite well…

Signs of a modest pickup in physical buying from China – daily trading volume of 99.99% purity Gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange hit a two-week high yesterday…premiums climbed to about $4-$5 an ounce, compared to $2-$3 last week…demand is also reportedly picking up in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore…

Bloomberg reports that Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been given permission to set up a precious metals vault in Shenzhen, China, becoming the first non-mainland bourse granted onshore commodity warehousing access…

China’s foreign exchange reserves have nearly doubled to $4 trillion since April 2009 when the nation last announced changes to bullion holdings (1,054.1 metric tons), according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data…while China holds the worst largest foreign exchange reserves, bullion accounts for only 1.1% of the total compared with about 70% for the U.S. and Germany…central banks have been net buyers of Gold for 14 straight quarters and the World Gold Council predicts they may increase holdings to 500 tons this year, aided mostly by emerging economies, after adding 409 tons last year…China is likely adding significantly to its Gold reserves as a plan to back up its currency…

China Courting India

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that China’s president is expected to pledge billions of dollars in investments for India this week as Beijing looks to gain influence with a regional heavyweight at a time when Asia’s balance of power is in flux…during a 3-day trip to India, Xi Jinping will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and lay the groundwork for a wave of Chinese money to build industrial parks and bullet trains in a country hungry for development…underlying China’s sharply rising interest in its neighbor is a fear that India could tilt too far toward Beijing’s rivals, namely Japan and the U.S., both of which have been also courting India’s new government…

More Chinese Millionaires Coming To Canada & The U.S.

Nearly half of Chinese millionaires plan to move out of the country in the next 5 years, a flight that could add to worries over the country’s economy, as more money moves offshore rather than being invested or spent in China…according to a study from Barclays and Ledbury Research, which polled more than 2,000 people worth $1.5 million or more from 17 countries, 47% of Chinese millionaires plan to emigrate, while another 20% said they don’t know if they will move…the study supports a finding from Hurun Report earlier this year, which said 64% of Chinese millionaires have either emigrated or plan to emigrate…

When asked why they are leaving China, 78% of respondents in the Barclays and Ledbury study said they were seeking “better educational/employment opportunities” for their kids; 73%  said they were looking for “economic security” and 72% said they wanted a “desirable climate”…their top destinations are Hong Kong, Canada and the U.S…that’s the highest rate of planned millionaire flight in the world, topping Qatar at 36% and Latin America at 34%…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

Asian markets were weak overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite tumbling 43 points or nearly 2% to close at 2296…weaker than expected foreign direct investment figures contributed to the sell-off…Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell for an 8th straight session while Japan’s Nikkei average dropped slightly to close at 15912…

Europe

European shares were down modestly today with investors looking ahead to the Fed meeting this week as well as Thursday’s referendum on Scottish independence…

North America

The Dow is off 5 points as of 8:15 am Pacific…the TSX is 18 points lower while the Venture, trading within a very strong band of support between 970 and 980, is off 5 points at 977…

U.S. producer prices were flat in August, pointing to muted inflation pressures that the Fed will no doubt be taking into consideration today and tomorrow…the Labor Department reported this morning that its PPI for final demand was unchanged as gasoline and food costs fell…producer prices had edged up 0.1% in July…economists had expected a 0.1% increase last month…in the 12 months through August, producer prices increased 1.8%…

The CNBC Fed Survey for September, conducted from Thursday through Saturday, ahead of a potentially contentious Fed meeting this week, finds the Street more optimistic on both economic growth and stocks and moving up its timetable for an interest rate hike…respondents now see the Fed starting a rate-hike policy in June 2015, up a month from the previous survey and the second survey in a row that has seen more rapid rate-hike expectations…

Updated Dow Chart

The Dow continues to look healthy from a technical standpoint, and the key development to watch for is a near-term confirmed breakout above important measured Fib. resistance at 17150…an RSI(7) support band has held since an unwinding of temporarily overbought conditions began late last month…

DOW22

Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V) Update 

A recent important development with regard to Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) may have been overlooked by many investors…however, given DBV’s recent trading activity, some market participants have obviously picked up on the potential significance of this as highly respected and award-winning geologist Patrick McAndless recently joined DBV as a senior adviser to the company’s board of directors…this was the furthest thing from a “promotional” appointment…McAndless, who has been a valuable mentor to many in his field over the years, has been directly responsible for significant discoveries leading to producing mines in British Columbia and elsewhere…

As DBV reported August 15, McAndless has commenced analysis of the data on the Hat Property and will be involved with management’s geological team in developing an extensive and strategic exploration plan for the Hat…we strongly suspect that an individual with such a flawless track record of discoveries would step out of “retirement” (he was previously Vice-President, Exploration for Imperial Metals) and attach his name to the Hat Project only if he had an unusual degree of confidence that he could play a pivotal role in proving up an economic resource…we’ll have more on McAndless in the near future…

The latest DBV chart shows the emergence of a fresh bullish trend after a healthy basing period around strong chart and Fib. support in the mid-teens and the rising 300-day moving average (SMA)…new support is at 20 cents, and DBV could really get interesting with McAndless’s insight and proven ability to find higher grade zones as the company gears up for more drilling…

DBV26

InZinc Mining Ltd. (IZN, TSX-V) Update

InZinc Mining (IZN, TSX-V) has closed a $600,000 private placement at 18 cents, and the chart pattern with this stock is quite remarkable…

InZinc is an emerging mid-tier Zinc producer with its 100%-owned West Desert Project in Utah…a positive PEA was released in May, and excellent opportunities for resource expansion exist…importantly, the project benefits from all-weather road access, on-site grid power, proximity to natural gas pipelines and is just 90 km from multiple transcontinental rail networks servicing western U.S. ports and major North American markets…

Technically, IZN formed a classic “cup with handle pattern” and continues to threaten to break out above the top of the cup…as of 8:15 am Pacific, IZN is unchanged at 20 cents…

IZN6

Falco Resources Ltd. (FPC, TSX-V)

One of our astute readers mentioned this company in our comments section last night, and we’re glad he did…we’ve been keeping an eye on Falco Resources (FPC, TSX-V) for several months now, in part due to our familiarity with the Rouyn-Noranda area where FPC is very active with a lot of promising ground…if you’re looking for a quality play in the junior resource sector, this certainly fits into the top 10% elite category – and we’ll elaborate on that more in the coming days…

As always, perform your own due diligence…obviously Sean Roosen has, and he likes what he sees…last Friday, Falco appointed Roosen as a director and chairman of the board…the appointment followed an announcement by Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR, TSX) on Aug. 29 that it intends to increase its ownership interest in Falco to 14.99%…

We’re glad to see FPC has pulled back in early trading today after jumping as high as 78 cents yesterday…as of 8:15 am Pacific, FPC is off 2 pennies at 69 cents…below is a 2+ year weekly chart from John for some technical guidance…note the uptrend line, the rising and supporting 200-day SMA and the gap support in the mid-60’s…

FPC2

Great Lakes Graphite Inc. (GLK, TSX-V)

We suggest readers perform their due diligence on Great Lake Graphite (GLK, TSX-V) which has caught John’s attention for technical reasons – this includes a significant pick-up in volume this month…it’s on our “radar screen”…GLK is up half a penny at 9.5 cents as of 8:15 am Pacific

GLK1

Endeavor Mining (EDV, TSX) Update

Endeavour Mining (EDV, TSX) is benefiting from lower cost production and the impact of continuing optimization programs…

Technically, EDV is facing resistance at its 50-day SMA (90 cents) with very strong support at the rising 200-day which also coincides with an uptrend line…rapidly increasing buy pressure and a dramatic change in the ADX indicator suggest that a breakout to the upside could be in the works…we’re keeping a close eye on the RSI(14) which is threatening to push above a downtrend line…

EDV is off 2 pennies at 86 cents as of 8:15 am Pacific

EDV2

Note:  Jon holds a share position in DBV.

 

11 Comments

  1. GOLD STARTING TO MOVE TODAY!? 1241

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 16, 2014 @ 8:06 am

  2. Steven, gold and the rest of the markets are reacting to the QE China just announced.

    Comment by Chris — September 16, 2014 @ 8:38 am

  3. And the venture keeps on tumbling. Seems to me everyone has given up on this exchange. Safrer to put your $$ into the tax,Dow,nasdaq etc….

    Comment by Tony t — September 16, 2014 @ 9:32 am

  4. Looking for ‘reversal’ on the Venture today as all markets are in the ‘green’ except TSX-V.

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 16, 2014 @ 10:03 am

  5. can you post another chart on CRS?

    Comment by Randy — September 16, 2014 @ 11:01 am

  6. GLK HALTED.

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 16, 2014 @ 11:18 am

  7. When will GGI drill the Grizzly? You would think the SP would be rising in anticipation. It was higher when we were further away from drilling. Makes no sense, but then the venture makes no sense anyway.

    Comment by Dan — September 16, 2014 @ 11:49 am

  8. Patience, as the saying goes, is a virtue, Dan, but our patience will soon be rewarded I’m sure. Positive day for the three leaders of the pack in the Sheslay district, even on a slightly down day for the Venture. Looking good.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 16, 2014 @ 12:09 pm

  9. TORONTO, Sept. 16, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Electric car producer Tesla Motors is planning to build a $6-billion lithium-ion battery ‘Gigafactory’ in 2017, doubling the 2013 global output of lithium ion batteries and creating a massive shortage of graphite – unless new mines come on line.

    Great Lakes Graphite (TSX-V:GLK) is a strong candidate to fill some of that North American demand. GLK’s 100%-owned Lochaber project in Quebec is a large flake graphite project with a near-surface resource located close to infrastructure and end user markets.

    “We spent the last seven years assessing opportunities in the graphite space,” stated GLK CEO Paul Gorman in an exclusive interview with Financial Post, “We wanted a high grade graphite project that had already been drilled and that had historic reserves which needed to be upgraded to modern geological standards. The Lochaber graphite property in Quebec checked all the right boxes.”

    Gorman stresses that he intends to be one of the first producers of flake graphite in North America. Great Lakes will achieve this by opening a quarry style graphite operation in a smaller footprint, that offers an easier permitting process and much lower initial capital requirements.

    “We are focused on the development of Lochaber” stated Gorman, “but at the same time we are building relationships with North American end users to supply graphite from our Lochaber project. We are not just a junior explorer, we are an industrial minerals company. Graphite demand in North America is surging and there is a race on to see who will fill it. It is our intention to be one of those companies.”

    The former owner of the Lochaber project spent $2 million drilling it and doing particle distribution work, so Great Lakes Graphite inherited a lot of very useful data.

    “We knew the size of the historic reserve,” confirms Gorman, “Our focus is to bring it to 43-101 standards and update the resource calculation based on new modelling and developmental work.”

    On August 27, 2014 – Great Lakes Graphite announced that it has initiated a program to fast track the Lochaber Graphite Property towards production. The first phase of this program includes field-work, laboratory work, a new 43-101-compliant resource estimate and the securing of offtake agreements that will be the key to obtaining production financing. Gorman expects the production decision to be made by Q4, 2015.

    Comment by Chuck — September 16, 2014 @ 2:25 pm

  10. Website updated – Just listened to the Aug 7th Webinar on GGI’s website….worth the listen. Two properties Rodadero & the Grizzly with outstanding potential to transform the company. This statement from Regoci still rings in my ears and if it don’t get investors excited, then I don’t know what would. On the Grizzly “going to change the face of the company” says Regoci “The biggest most exciting project in this companies history. Geologist has been busy getting the Grizzly drill ready with many samples, just didn’t release news yet but when they are ready, will announce that. Jon, if I sound as excited as you about GGI’s future, I am. The clean share structure and low outstanding shares is another bonus moving forward.

    Investors -> Media -> GGI Aug. 7 Webinar

    Comment by Dan — September 16, 2014 @ 3:33 pm

  11. Ran across this article which mentions BLO

    Read at Market Watch website…

    Comment by Greg — September 16, 2014 @ 8:24 pm

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