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October 29, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,220 and $1,232 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,224…Silver is up 12 cents at $17.32…Copper is flat at $3.11…Crude Oil is up $1.11 a barrel to $82.53 while the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped more than one-tenth of a point to 85.25…the greenback and bullion will both be very sensitive today to language from the Fed as it wraps up its 2-day policy meeting…

A surprise, given obvious signs recently of a slowdown in global economic activity, would be a “hawkish” statement today from the Fed though the central bank is expected to conclude its current bond-buying program (QE4 can’t be ruled out in the future, though)…a new CNBC survey revealed that market participants have scaled back their expectation of an interest rate hike – they now expect a hike in July 2015, a month later than when the survey was conducted in September…even an increase in interest rates next July could be an optimistic forecast if global deflationary concerns continue to mount…

Interesting piece on Silver this morning from Kitco ace reporter Alex Létourneau (www.Kitco.com) in an interview with Mike DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute.  “People look at Silver, and they know about it in jewelry and coins, but when they really learn about how 50% of overall demand goes into the industrial side, it kind of boggles their mind,” DiRienzo said.  “People don’t immediately relate the white metal with its uses in everyday technology and health care; Silver in clothing technology has also turned heads.”  At the U.S. Open tennis tournament from Aug. 25 to Sept. 8 in New York City, Ralph Lauren produced a polo shirt with bio-sensing Silver fibers, called the Polo Tech Shirt.  “The ball boys all wore these Ralph Lauren polo shirts that had tiny Silver threads embedded and served a duality and purpose,” he added. “It not only kept the shirts cleaner and fresher, because silver kills bacteria, but it also sent signals monitoring heart rate, blood pressure and distance traveled to either that person’s phone or to another device.”  These shirts are fashionable as well and will be available to the general public beginning next year…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite put in another robust performance overnight, climbing 35 points or 1.2% to close at 2373…transportation stocks were the best performers…China can afford to cut its 2015 economic growth target to 7% and still keep its labor market healthy, the World Bank said yesterday, even as it urged Beijing to stop setting rigid growth objectives…

Japanese shares hit a 3-week high, resuming their gains after ending a 2-day winning streak yesterday…September industrial production data released before the market open also helped to boost sentiment, with factory output rising at its fastest pace since January…

Europe

European markets were up modestly today…

North America

The Dow is up slightly as of 8:30 am Pacific…the S&P 500 ended above its 50-day moving average (SMA) for the first time in almost a month yesterday…underpinning gains was data showing October consumer confidence hitting its highest level since 2007, though U.S. durable goods orders came in weaker than expected..

Updated Nasdaq Chart

Quite a dramatic reversal for the Nasdaq which has had 3 opening gaps in 9 sessions through yesterday…it’s down marginally in early trading today…Fib. support held at 4150 on the recent correction, and RSI(14) at 63% is showing powerful up momentum…it’s quite reasonable to expect a new yearly high in the Nasdaq very soon – 4890 is the next measured Fib. resistance…

Nasdaq Chart

The TSX is down 49 points while the Venture is up 2 points at 790 as of 8:30 am Pacific

25% Graphite Over 24 Meters 

Deveron Resources (DVR, TSX-V), which has a highly attractive share structure (its best advantage), may have a significant though very early-stage Zinc/graphite find on its hands in northern Ontario…25% graphite over a 24 m section, using the graphitic-carbon-by-LECO analytical procedure…our belief, based on some quick research this morning that requires further confirmation, is that this intercept was quite shallow (less than 100 meters) which would be critical…

The material has been sent for mineralogical studies and, currently, preliminary metallurgical work is under way to identify the nature of the graphite and whether it can be processed to form an acceptable concentrate…1% combined Zinc plus Copper was noted within this graphitic argillite unit…this intersection is one of the more encouraging found in this sequence of Archean greenstone rocks over the last decade…potential for much higher Zinc grades (necessary for any economic deposit) may exist in this environment if this trail of mineralization leads somewhere or has a deeper sourceDeveron announced this morning that it has acquired an option on the project from Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) and is planning a winter drill program to test this discovery…DVR has only 12 million shares outstanding, and a public float of only a few million, so this could pop quickly – especially if there’s aggressive near-term follow-up at the Rockstone Property and the company can effectively reach out to investors…DVR is up a penny at 15 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific…worth putting on the radar screen…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB, TSX-V) Update

Calibre Mining (CXB, TSX-V) announced this morning that it has commenced a Phase 1 diamond drilling program (1,500 meters in up to 13 holes) on the Minnesota Gold project within the B2Gold Corp. (BTO, TSX) joint venture on the Borosi concessions, northeast Nicaragua…Calibre controls a 49% interest in the JV while B2Gold has a 51% interest and is project operator…BTO has the right to earn an additional 19% per cent in Borosi by spending $6 million in additional project expenditures over 3 years…

CXB has been consolidating recently, a healthy development after RSI(14) extended well into overbought territory while an important Fib. level (18 cents) was also reached…a very strong band of support exists between 9 and 12 cents as shown in this 2.5-year weekly chart…

CXB is off half a penny at 12.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

CXB19

Highbank Resources Ltd. (HBK, TSX-V) Update

Highbank Resources (HBK, TSX-V) has held up extremely well over the past couple of months, despite the Venture’s plunge, which speaks to the revenue and profit potential from the company’s Swamp Point North Aggregate Project near Stewart…certainty on a final B.C. LNG tax framework (a revised and reduced tax regime) is also a positive development for Highbank which stands to benefit from a possible boom in LNG projects…

Highbank President and CEO Victor Bryant announced recently projected revenues of $27-million for fiscal 2015 while estimating first-year pre-tax profits at $11-million…those estimates are based on pending orders and quotes submitted over the past few months (refer to the company’s Oct. 14 news release)…

Technically, HBK has been forming a strong base around Fib. support at 26 cents…note the long-term uptrend support line…very bullish…

HBK is up a penny at 27.5 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

HBK20

Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) Updated Chart

There has been a profound change in the technical posture of Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) – what this may mean or lead to is anyone’s guess, but it cannot be ignored at this point…

The 3-year weekly chart shows a recent double bottom formation (just a whisker above the rising 500-day moving average (SMA), rapidly increasing buy pressure and RSI(14) up momentum, and a bullish +DI crossover…it’ll be very interesting to see how things unfold over the next week or so – technically and fundamentally, of course, with developments on the ground at Rodadero and elsewhere…

GGI is up half a penny at 23 cents through the first 2 hours of trading…

GGI73

Discovery Ventures Inc. (DVN, TSX-V) Update

The Venture’s recent slide sliced Discovery Venture’s (DVN, TSX-V) share price by more than half, from a high of 41.5 cents at the beginning of September to a recent low of 16 cents…that’s the nature of these speculative, volatile markets…investors have to have a stomach for volatility and not confuse a drop in a company’s share price with diminishing prospects – that’s not always the case…

Technically, what John likes about DVN is how the long-term uptrend line was recently successfully tested…the current low in the SS matches that seen during previous important bottoms in the stock price…RSI(14) has bounced up from previous support…a bullish +DI crossover has not yet occurred which would confirm a reversal…

DVN has made significant progress this year in advancing its high-grade Willa-Max Copper-Gold Project, featuring a NI-43-101 resource and a Preliminary Feasibility Study, in southeastern British Columbia…

DVN is unchanged at 20 cents as of 8:30 am Pacific

DVN32

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.  Jon also holds a share position in DVR.

16 Comments

  1. Thanks for the GGI interview exerts so far. Are there more to come soon? I picked up a few more shares today at 22c. It really feels like something is brewing with this company in Mexico and hopefully the Grizzly will come up trumps at some point too.

    Comment by Tom UK — October 29, 2014 @ 7:39 am

  2. It appears i may have gotten the wrong information on the
    European markets, it appears they were open after all.
    Sorry about that.

    Comment by Bert — October 29, 2014 @ 8:55 am

  3. I would like to pose a question for various answers…. in YOUR opinion, what will turn the venture around and stop the precipitous fall and get peeps interested in the jr market again…. if ever…
    just for dialog .. thats all…
    IMO the price of gold has got to create some excitement. Greed will return at some point after the POG does begin its rise. and When?? maybe 1-2 years

    Comment by Jeremy — October 29, 2014 @ 9:24 am

  4. Jeremy…a major discovery by a junior…a rapid turn to the upside in Gold…some sort of event that causes Oil to reverse higher…a “melt up” in equities…any number of possibilities…a big discovery though would really restore some confidence…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 29, 2014 @ 10:17 am

  5. Thx Jon… based on the FOMC.. one wish will be coming true anytime soon… $$ of gold!! does the end of QE3 and the hawkish tone put the last nail in the coffin for the cdnx for the forseeable future??

    Comment by Jeremy — October 29, 2014 @ 10:41 am

  6. Jeremy

    I agree with Jon, but i also think that it may take more
    time. Because QE has ended, it should tell everyone that
    things in the U.S. are going well, in fact, they can’t find
    enough qualified people to fill the jobs available. Because
    the U.S. & Canada are joined at the hips, anything positive
    in the U.S. will rub off on Canada. The more positive things
    are everywhere, the more people will be working, the more
    money they will have to spend, the more houses they will buy,
    in fact, the more of everything will be in demand, including
    gold for their teeth & copper for their cell phones..

    Comment by Bert — October 29, 2014 @ 10:53 am

  7. Jon when do you think made the interview with Patrick Mcandless? Thanks

    Comment by Guy Delisle — October 29, 2014 @ 10:57 am

  8. Meant to say will not be coming….

    Comment by Jeremy — October 29, 2014 @ 11:11 am

  9. Markets and life can be full of surprises, so all things are possible, Jeremy.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 29, 2014 @ 11:38 am

  10. Jeremy – $$ of gold!! does the end of QE3 and the hawkish tone put the last nail
    in the coffin for the cdnx for the foreseeable future??

    Bert – May i lend an helping hand my buddy ! Gold was down today, but as
    always, was prompted by panic selling. Buying/selling gold is no different than
    buying/selling GGI. The same attraction which attracted Gold this morning at
    1,230.00 is still there somewhere & will rear it’s head when things simmer down.
    The Gold bugs will use this as a buying opportunity & i will suggest, it will be
    back up again tomorrow, If i am wrong about tomorrow, how about the next day.

    Comment by Bert — October 29, 2014 @ 12:18 pm

  11. Jon – Markets and life can be full of surprises, so all things are possible, Jeremy.

    Bert – Jon is sounding negatives my friends, now is the time to buy.

    Comment by Bert — October 29, 2014 @ 12:20 pm

  12. Surprises can be very positive, Bert, that wasn’t meant in a negative context…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 29, 2014 @ 12:28 pm

  13. Venture falls another day. Whats different from this time to 2008 is once the venture hit its low back then it roared back. This time around, the venture is trading sideways or lower.

    And yes the US economy is picking up (they don’t have the skilled workers to fill the jobs needed etc), but with a rise in economy also comes rising interest rates, which imo, means people will have less money to spend (and for the venture for that matter). I fear the venture is going to be on life support for a very long time.

    Comment by Tony T — October 30, 2014 @ 1:04 am

  14. Good morning Tony T

    Please be reminded that when the market was roaring, we had interest
    rates. It’s the spoiled folks out there, expecting the feds to keep
    printing money, thinking only of themselves. Level thinking will
    prevail & the market will once again trade in a normal manner.

    Comment by Bert — October 30, 2014 @ 4:35 am

  15. Interesting chart this morning on the CRB Index that we’ll be showing…October historically is the second worst month of the year (behind May) for the CRB, which often parallels the CDNX…interestingly, November has proven to be the best month over the last half of the year going back two decades…so there’s hope for a better November…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 30, 2014 @ 4:55 am

  16. Here’s hoping JOn… and thank you Bert for your calming influence… I tend to be a glass half full guy, but it is increasingly difficult with the CDNX being mired in complacency. where’s our new Bre-X:)

    Comment by Jeremy — October 30, 2014 @ 5:58 am

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