BullMarketRun.com

Gold has traded between $1,177 and $1,191 so far today…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $1 an ounce at $1,186…Silver is flat at $16.70…Copper has lost 3 pennies to $2.76…Crude Oil has slipped 34 cents to $48.34…the U.S. and 5 other world powers are in the final day of talks (unless they extend them) over a nuclear deal that could see the energy-rich country increase Oil exports to world markets…the U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, is up half a point at 98.37…

Gold is headed for a 3rd straight quarterly fall (see updated chart below) while the dollar is on track for its best quarter since 2008 against a basket of major currencies, boosted as the Fed moves toward raising rates – perhaps sometime during the 2nd half of this year – while most other major central banks are loosening monetary policy…

The always important U.S. monthly jobs number is due Good Friday when North American equity markets are closed…economists polled by Reuters forecast a 245,000 gain in U.S. jobs in March which would be down significantly from February’s robust figure of 295,000…employment gains have been above 200,000 for 12 consecutive months, the longest such run since 1994…

Ben Bernanke, who stepped down as Fed Chairman early last year and became a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, has launched his own blog which will no doubt draw great attention from many market observers…he has spent the past year writing a book on his time at the Fed (scheduled to be published this fall) and giving speeches.  “Now that I’m a civilian again,” Bernanke wrote, “I can once more comment on economic and financial issues without my words being put under the microscope by Fed watchers.”

China’s Asian Infrastructure Development Bank

Interestingly, China has created the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and has given it U.S. $50 billion in seed money…National Post writer Matthew Fisher says “the move has caused apoplexy” in Washington and Tokyo.  “The worry,” Fisher states, “is that China will soon write the rules for international banking, effectively gaining a veto over many development projects in Asia.”  Britain, France, Germany, Italy, South Korea, and Australia have jumped on board the AIIB…Jack Lew, U.S. Treasury Secretary, called the creation of the AIIB a threat to “our international credibility and influence.”

Gold Long-Term Monthly Chart

Below is a 20-year monthly Gold chart that shows how bullion continues to “dance on the edge” of its uptrend support line that has remained intact since 2001…it’s critical that this support holds (keep in mind, this is a monthly chart), otherwise the risk of a plunge to the $1,000 level becomes increasingly likely…Fib. support on this long-term monthly chart is also in the $1,180’s while the next Fib. level is $1,007…

Encouragingly, RSI(14) last year broke above a downtrend line in place since its late 2011 high…the SS indicator has done the same…at some point down the road, everyone may look back at Gold’s 40% drop from $1,924 to last November’s low around $1,130 as an historic buying opportunity…some analysts, however, take the view that Gold has not yet found a bottom, that a final “capitulation” is still in the works…

This chart will be a valuable guide for the weeks ahead…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China’s Shanghai Composite cooled off overnight, losing 37 points to finish at 3749…China’s central bank has lowered minimum down-payment levels on second homes nationwide, scrapping a key policy aimed at controlling housing prices as it seeks to boost the economy…the People’s Bank of China said the minimum deposit for individuals buying additional housing would be set at 40%, according to a statement on its web site…the level was previously 60% to 70%, China’s Xinhau news agency said…in addition, select homeowners who have held a property for 2 years or more will be exempted from a sales tax, the finance ministry announced…

The new moves are part of “Beijing’s broader package of policies to stabilize economic growth and dis-inflationary pressures,” according to HSBC…as policymakers become increasingly concerned, analysts expect more easing measures in the coming weeks.  “A 50-basis-point cut in the policy rate, a 200-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio…in the coming months, if not weeks,” HSBC stated…

Despite further efforts to open up its capital account, the use of the Chinese yuan as a currency for world payments fell two places to 7th in February, with a share of 1.81%, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or Swift, in a report today…that compares with a record high 2.17% in December, according to the organization that is used by banks to coordinate international transactions…the 20.4% drop compared with January is a reversal from November when the yuan broke into the top 5 of world payment currencies, overtaking the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar by value…

Europe

European markets were down today but still posted strong gains for the quarter…euro zone unemployment data today ticked down to 11.3% in February, from 11.4% in January…this was its lowest rate since May 2012…a flash figure for euro zone inflation came in at –0.1% in March, up from February’s number…

North America

The Dow is off 105 points as of 9:00 am Pacific…the TSX is up 17 points while the Venture is off a point at 679 through the first 2-and-a-half hours of trading…

Again, we remind our readers to keep an eye on International Montoro Resources (IMT, TSX-V) which confirmed this morning that drilling is now underway at the Pecors anomaly (Ni-Cu-PGE target) near Elliot Lake in northern Ontario, immediately west of Sudbury…the first hole had reached a depth of 221 m as of last night…

Both IMT and the Ontario Geological Survey have carried out some outstanding research in this area, and the massive Pecors magnetic anomaly was given even more credence with the results of a lake sediment geochemical survey covering the area which outlined a Cu-Ni anomaly proximal to the magnetic anomaly…

IMT is unchanged at 8.5 cents as of 9:00 am Pacific…favorable chart patterns and the possibility of drilling success at Pecors should make for an exciting April for IMT…

Venture Updated Charts

If the Venture can overcome chart resistance at 680, the possibility of an April surprise to the upside becomes more likely…the recent bullish “W” in the RSI(14) on this 6-month daily chart is an encouraging sign…the 50-day moving average (SMA), currently 683, has also started to reverse to the upside but this trend needs to gain traction and accelerate…a sharp breakout through the 680’s on strong volume is exactly what the Venture needs from a technical standpoint…

Venture 6-Month Daily Chart

Venture 5-Year Weekly Chart

This 5-year weekly Venture chart shows increasing buy pressure (CMF), reversing the trend that started in the 3rd quarter of last year and peaked in late 2014/early this year…the weakening of the bearish phase since September is clearly evident in the ADX indicator, and the RSI(14) is trending higher…the Index just needs a catalyst to gain momentum…

NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE, TSX-V) Update

NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE, TSX-V) announced this morning that it has drilled off-scale radioactivity (greater than 10,000 counts per second) approximately 3.7 km northeast and along trend from the Arrow zone on its 100%-owned Rook I Property in the Athabasca basin…a 4th drill rig, recently mobilized to the property, has joined 1 other drill rig in testing this new discovery, named Bow, which is coincident with a recently located radon anomaly that tracks the strike of a VTEM conductor for approximately 730 m and is up to 140 m wide (this particular radon anomaly has the highest reading of all known radon anomalies in the area)…

NXE 2-Year Weekly Chart

NexGen has been quite volatile over the last year but has been following a general uptrend featuring higher lows…it’s now threatening to break out of an ascending triangle with chart resistance in the low 50’s…

NXE is up 2 pennies at 52 cents on strong volume as of 9:00 am Pacific…

Merger Rumors

Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK, B) climbed as much as 15% intra-day yesterday on a Bloomberg report regarding a possible merger with Chilean Copper miner Antofogasta PLC…the rumors were vigorously denied by Teck with some carefully chosen words in a news release issued shortly after the market closed…

“Teck reports that it is not in discussions with Antofagasta in relation to any form of transaction,” the company said in a brief statement.  “There are no other corporate developments that justify any significant movement in its share price.”

Bloomberg, which is quite skilled at spotting some smoke, cited unidentified sources as saying that the companies had held early-stage talks…as a side note, it’s interesting we’re hearing much more about Antofogasta over the last few months…it’s known that they are looking with intense interest at numerous projects in North America, and British Columbia is apparently very high on their list…

In any event, our readers would be wise to keep an eye on Teck for several reasons…

From a technical perspective, Teck has been an excellent reflection of the state of the overall resource market since early 2011…as you can see in the 6-year monthly chart below, Teck has been trading within a downsloping channel since peaking at nearly $55 a share…it closed yesterday at $19.45 and is in retreat this morning…nonetheless, Teck has been strengthening since its January 14 intra-day low of $12.46 with the now-rising 50-day SMA providing strong support…

A confirmed breakout above the long-term downtrend line, currently in the low $20’s, would be extremely significant – a strong clue that the resource market is ready for a major turnaround…

In British Columbia, Teck has clearly demonstrated its continued strong interest in the Schaft Creek deposit (Cu-Au-Mo-Ag) by increasing the 2015 budget for the Schaft Creek Joint Venture with Copper Fox Minerals Inc. (CUU, TSX-V) to nearly $5 million as announced 2 weeks ago…approximately 120 km to the northwest, Teck has maintained a large land position, contiguous to the southern border of Garibaldi Resources‘ (GGI, TSX-V) Grizzly Project, in the Sheslay district, and this is the result of promising results obtained by Teck…

Readers should also keep an eye on the Kliyul Cu-Au Prophyry Project (drilling upcoming) in north-central B.C., about 65 km southeast of the past producing Kemess mine, that Teck has optioned from Kiska Metals Corp. (KSK, TSX-V)…

Note:  John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.  Jon also holds a share position in IMT.