Gold has traded between $1,184 and $1,205 so far today…as of 9:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $13 an ounce at $1,189 after stronger than expected U.S. existing home sales…Silver is off 21 cents at $15.78…Copper is flat at $2.69…Crude Oil has retreated 16 cents to $56.45 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 98.02…
China’s push to challenge American dominance in global trade involves growing amounts of Gold…according to Bloomberg Intelligence, based on trade data, domestic output and China Gold Association figures, The People’s Bank of China may have tripled its holdings of bullion (to 3,510 metric tonnes) since it last updated them in April 2009 – and that figure is probably on the conservative side…such a stockpile would be second only to the 8,133.5 tonnes held by the United States…
China became the world’s second-largest economy in 2010 and has dramatically stepped up efforts to make the yuan a viable competitor to the dollar…that has led to speculation the government has stockpiled Gold as part of a plan to diversify nearly $4-trillion in foreign-exchange reserves…
“If you want to set yourself up as a reserve currency, you may want to have assets on your balance sheet other than other fiat currencies,” TD Securities commodity strategy head Bart Melek says. Gold is “certainly viewed as a viable store of value for an up-and-coming global power.”
TD Securities: Gold On Its Way $1,300 In Q2
Analysts at TD Securities says that consistently weaker data will force the Federal Reserve to push back the lift-off of potential interest rate hikes until later in the year, a positive for Gold which has been trading in a narrow range recently around $1,200 an ounce. “The combination of U.S. economic growth concerns along with the rising risk that Greece will default on its debt obligations in the coming months, should see Gold rally to highs near $1,300/oz sometime in Q2–2015 – monetary policy trends, safe-haven buying should prompt specs to cover short exposure and build new longs, with technical positioning providing the path to the higher target,” they stated.
Today’s Equity Markets
Asia
Japan’s Nikkei average closed above 20000 today for the first time since 2000, the result of a rally this year driven in part not only by international exporters but also by lesser-known companies selling everything from potato chips to household appliances…
China’s Shanghai Composite closed up 106 points or 2.5% at 4400 to rewrite its highest trading level since February 2008 on the back of last weekend’s stimulus measures…
Europe
European markets were mixed today…Reuters reported that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stated yesterday that he was confident Greece would reach a deal with its international lenders although this may not happen at Friday’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers…
Meanwhile, European Union anti-trust regulators charged Russian gas giant Gazprom today with abusing its dominant position in Poland, Hungary and 6 other countries in Eastern Europe following more than 2 years of investigation…
North America
The Dow is up 42 points points as of 9:00 am Pacific…
U.S. home buyers flooded back into the real estate market in March, pushing up sales and prices at the start of the spring buying season…the National Association of Realtors says sales of existing homes jumped 6.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million, the highest level since September 2013…the percentage increase was the largest since December 2010…
In Toronto, following federal budget day, the TSX is off 72 points while the Venture has declined a point to 699 as of 9:00 am Pacific…Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) is up another penny at 17 cents after announcing it has received an expanded 5-year exploration and drilling permit for the Hat Project in the Sheslay district…what’s notable about this permit is that it will allow Doubleview to use equipment at the Hat that’s expected to “significantly reduce drilling and exploration costs”, which we interpret to mean less reliance on helicopters…we’ll have a first-hand look at the evolving situation on the ground in the Sheslay district during a planned upcoming visit…final results from DBV’s hole #23 are due shortly along with the start of the company’s 2015 drill program…with Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) gearing up to launch a first-ever drill program at the Grizzly, where the odds of another district discovery appear very strong, the Sheslay’s time to shine is quickly approaching…
Canadian Dollar Update
The Canadian dollar, trading at 81.64, continues to rally modestly after managing to hold critical support, temporarily at least, between 78 cents and 80 cents as shown in John’s updated 20-year monthly chart…key resistance is 85 cents, a level the loonie broke down from at the beginning of January as Oil prices sank below $50 a barrel…
Ultimately, if the support band between 78 and 80 cents does not hold, the loonie would be very vulnerable to a “capitulation” collapse to the low 70’s where it last traded in 2004…
On a positive note, the 20-year low in the RSI(14) mirrors the 20-year high in this indicator reached in late 2007 when the loonie topped out at $1.10 to the U.S. dollar…in other words, it’s possible that an important trend reversal may have started which seems to match the technical patterns we’re seeing in Crude Oil, the CRB Index and the Venture…
Keep in mind, the Venture performs best when the loonie is in an uptrend as was the case from 2003 to late 2007, 2009 to early 2011, and again through most of 2014…
North Arrow Minerals Inc. (NAR, TSX-V) Update
North Arrow Minerals (NAR, TSX-V) continues to push higher today after yesterday’s encouraging news regarding analysis of 41 representative yellow diamonds from the Q1–4 kimberlite…all but 1 of the diamonds were determined to contain unaggregated nitrogen, characteristic of exceptionally rare Type 1b diamonds…
Final processing and diamond sorting of the Q1–4 bulk sample are on track for completion within the next week to 10 days…
Technically, NAR remains in a very strong uptrend as John has consistently pointed out over the last couple of months…a confirmed breakout has occurred above Fib. resistance at $1.00, and this morning NAR has pushed above the $1.18 Fib. level after opening at $1.10 and trading as high as $1.30…speculation seems to be in NAR’s favor as investors wait for a formal valuation of the diamond parcel, expected by later this spring or early summer…
NAR has jumped 18 cents to $1.28 as of 9:00 am Pacific…
TSX Gold Index Update
Producers are under some pressure this morning with Gold again dropping below $1,200 an ounce, but what matters more is where the TSX Gold Index closes Friday and of course how the metal finishes the week…U.S. durable goods data will be released Friday morning and those important numbers could potentially impact a broad range of markets…
As you can see in this 6-month daily chart, the Gold Index closed yesterday right at Fib. resistance (166-167) where it has repeatedly attempted to push through for more than a month…this is a very critical area as it’s also where the 50 and 100-day moving averages (SMA’s) have converged…the 50-day is flattening out, while the 100-day is still rising…
Friday may set the tone for the balance of the month…the overall trend in the Gold Index since late last year has been very positive with a series of higher lows…
The Gold Index is down 5 points at 162 through the first 2-and-a-half hours of trading today…
Richmont Mines Inc. (RIC, TSX) Update
Our favorite Gold producer remains Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which enjoyed slightly better than expected 1st-quarter 2015 Gold production of nearly 26,000 ounces, a 23% year-over-year increase, and Gold sales of 24,791 ounces, a 21% increase over the prior year as reported this morning…the company’s Q1 quarter average realized Gold price was $1,496 CDN per ounce, up 4% over the same period in 2014 thanks to the drop in the value of the loonie…
Accelerated development at the producing Island Gold Mine, where Richmont has outlined a substantial high-grade resource below existing workings, is progressing according to plan…the main access ramp has been extended to a depth of 675 m, the exploration/definition drift to a length of 290 and the secondary eastern ramp to a depth of 470 m…
Richmont’s Quebec operations had an excellent 3 months, with Beaufor and Monique delivering significant Gold production increases over last year…
Thanks to a strong 1st quarter and the closing of a $38 million bought deal financing at $4 per share, Richmont’s cash position as of the end of March was approximately $71 million…
Technically, overbought RSI(14) conditions that emerged in RIC last year have unwound, with the stock now trading within a bullish downsloping flag…what to watch for here is a potential breakout above the flag through the $4.00 level…
RIC is down a nickel at $3.88 as of 9:00 am Pacific…
Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in DBV and GGI.
LION ONE I hope this missive isn’t too long for you guys. It could be very valuable to some.
Newsletter from Mike Hoy
Years ago I would occasionally read a good private newsletter written by a Mike Hoy and enjoyed the reads., but I had lost contact with his posts. He’s an astute former stock broker, a good writer and analyst. A few days ago I saw one of his old newsletters reprinted in Lion One’s board on IHUB so I contacted him and had the pleasure of speaking with him for a couple of hours and we’ve emailed each other. Great minds think alike and fools seldom differ. LOL
Mike has met Walter Berukoff who told him that Tavutu may be his best project ever.!!! Which obviously is saying a whole lot! (2, billion dollar plus companies under his belt) I’ve also heard from a reliable source that Berukoff thinks Tuvatu could be producing 100,000 oz per year in 5 years
He sent me this article and said I could reprint some of his writing so I may post some others he sent me as well. Some things have changed from the time he wrote this letter–he says Lion’s MC is $26 million and now its an incredibly low $17 million. They have $5 mill in the bank instead of the 7 when he wrote it.
I think this is an incredible opportunity that is virtually unknown in the market. Coffin wrote a while back that this could be a $100 mill company,(5x present market cap) IMHO thats just for starters. Likely stock halt next week to announce a favorable PEA. IMHO you may never see a deal like this again. Trading volume is low and I’ve been told the major seller is a fund or individual divesting all of their gold juniors. Few know about this mine. (I’ve bought 25% of the shares traded since the last halt when they announced they received their final permits to mine.)
Lion is becoming and will be a profitable mine soon with tremendous upside I believe. Sale is on. do your dd of course, and you may want to do soon it before its halted again.
Enjoy Mike’s letter.
TIME TO LOOK AT THE LIO BLUEPRINT!
For over three years I have written about Lion One Metals (LIO- Can, LOMLF-AM). I have watched this company carry out successful work programs where the reward to shareholders has been a beating in the open market.
I know the bear market in the precious metals sector has decimated the market caps of quality seniors and juniors alike to a point where investors have come to recognize that “enough is enough!” Sophisticated investors are beginning to back the truck up taking advantage of bargains they never felt possible several years ago.
In my opinion, LIO is one of those companies that should be very near if not at the top of every precious metal investors buy list; but it isn’t and that is the subject of what this article is all about.
The most obvious reasons why LIO has continued to fly under the radar screen in attracting a following is because very few investors know and understand how undervalued this company is today based upon a small known hi-grade resource being advanced into production with the potential to multiply that resource many times over with very little dilution to shareholders.
If I could draw up a blueprint of what I want in a precious metals investment my blueprint would mirror that of the assets in LIO and the enviable position the company occupies in the development of those assets today.
TUVATU;
LIO has 100% ownership in a project on the mining friendly island of Fiji where 80,000 meters of drilling was completed by Emperor Gold Mines between 1997 and 2000; 60,000 meters of drill core remains onsite today. This project named Tuvatu was originally perceived as a minor league farm club where the intention was to develop a supplemental ore body to supply additional feed for the longest producing gold mine in the Pacific Rim named Vatukoula which has produced 7,000,000 oz of gold in its past.
As a result of playing a supporting role to Vatukoula proper attention was not given to the project as only 5% of the drill core was ever assayed and very little surface work performed. Had extensive trenching and surface work been performed by Emperor the results would have shown that the occurrence of high grade gold at surface to be common across the property as surface work performed by LIO from 2011-2013 has proven.
Work performed and completed by Emperor Gold Mines developed a small resource of 652,000 oz indicated and inferred. Based upon this resource a feasibility study was completed by Bateman Kinhill in 2000 which stated that the project was economic at that time with gold below $300/oz?
A production decision was made and development work began culminating in 1.63 km of exploration decline, drifts and cross-cuts being installed which led to a bulk sample shipment of ore to the mill at Vatukoula where positive test results put Tuvatu on the fast track to production.
With the price of gold entrenched below $300/oz and the management of Emperor, not being aware of the potential of Tuvatu, shifted their focus from Tuvatu to what was hoped to be greener pastures allowing Tuvatu to slip away in the process.
ENTER WALTER BERUKOFF:
Coming off of huge financial success with the development and sale of Northern Orion and Miramar; Walter Berukoff entered the picture knowing there existed at Tuvatu a small resource where much of the development work and expense to enter production had already been completed. Little did he realize at the time that LIO would turn out to be a company which he now feels may be the best he has ever had. I will explain what this statement means at the end of this article.
Wally also had an understanding of the elephant mines and resources being developed throughout the Pacific Rim on the exact same fault as Tuvatu. He knows that not all calderas in the Pacific Rim host mineralization; but those which do tend to reward their shareholders very handsomely. Some of the world’s largest mines lie on the exact same fault as Tuvatu in the Pacific Rim.
In 3.5 years of carrying out successful work programs where trenching, additional drilling and surface work has exposed high-grade gold all over the place at surface in conjunction with close examination of the on-site drill core he feels there is a pretty good chance that Tuvatu just happens to be one of those mineralized calderas.
To date only two of the 570 total holes drilled on the property in the past were drilled to depth. Both holes encountered multiple zones where one zone returned assays of 284 grams gold over 3.72 meters width. Millions in additional deep drilling is necessary to prove up the existence of what could be another elephant resource in the Pacific Rim.
THIS IS WHERE THE STORY SHOULD GET REAL INTERESTING!
Many of the few investors who have been introduced to LIO understand much of the above inferred content. In my opinion what investors do not understand is what the picture looks like once all these pieces are put together. A short summary of some of the pieces are below.
To begin;
Indicated and inferred hi-grade resource of just less than 1,000,000 oz with the potential
to expand this resource equal to any major project on the market today;
A project where much of the time and expense to enter production has already been
bought and paid for;
The possibility that production permits on Tuvatu could be formally approved at any
point in time;
Investor groups standing in line for a chance to participate in financing production at
Tuvatu;
The probability that financing will be a debt financing keeping shareholder dilution to a
minimum;
Estimated year end completion of preliminary economic assessment;
Refundable deposits placed of the purchase of multiple existing mills while a decision is
made as to which mill is best suited to process Tuvatu ore;
Ongoing study of potential purchase of new mill again depending on which mill is best
suited to process existing ore
Initial stock-piling of high-grade ore to feed mill;
Estimated production commencing end of first quarter 2016;
Initial production estimates 30,000-50,000oz/yr;
Cap-Ex estimate of $35,000,000;
Cash on hand $7+ million;
Fully diluted share structure less than 65,000,000;
Market cap of less than $26,000,000 Can;
Some of you may be thinking “nice project but a little small for my preference.” This would be a valid point if Tuvatu were completely drilled and assayed proving that this small ore body is all there is. In reality I view the existing resource as just the “tip of the iceberg” where initial production of 30,000-50,000 oz/yr of hi-grade low-cost gold will turn a very handsome profit for shareholders. I believe LIO shares have the potential to increase in value several times beginning with the granting of the production permit followed by a successful year-end completion of the preliminary economic assessment (pea) in conjunction with the announcement of production financing.
In my opinion, the two points investors must recognize beyond the ultimate potential of this project is the fact that the existing ore body will produce well in excess of ten years making the stock at current prices a bargain on its current merits alone. The second point investors must understand is the funding necessary to explore the deep depths of Tuvatu will come from the production above where the possibility exists that very little if any dilution to the existing shareholder base is necessary.
My response to those who believe investments in companies that are exploring, drilling and perpetually raising new funds to advance projects of merit in hopes that defining a resource is preferential to owning a company with initial production of 30,000-50,000 annual gold production from an existing ore body that very likely will fund exploration on what appears to be a project equally as exciting as anything on the market today is; “what will the capital structure of your preferential company of choice be if successful in developing an ore body after spending the millions to get there?” “What percentage ownership will you still have in the property?” “How many shares outstanding will exist fully diluted?” “What if you find after spending millions there is not an economic resource to show for your efforts?”
In my opinion the alternative is simple; on a worst case basis, in the unlikely event future drilling is a flat-out bust LIO will still be producing gold from the ground on their sub-million oz ore body while the capital structure of the company remains intact with a very reasonable amount of shares outstanding fully diluted. Where else do you get an opportunity to develop, produce and drill a project with the deep potential of Tuvatu where shareholders do not have to continually dilute their structure every step of the way?
When viewed this way it puts a little different light on the subject without giving any value at all to other projects in the company; one of which may have a value close to the total current market cap of LIO today.
THE DEFINITION OF TRUE INSIDE BUYING!
As for Walter Berukoff’s belief in his own company; when bids were hard to find in Nov, Dec and Jan 2013 he stood on the bid at $.25 buying every share that came to market. This buying was public information and any one could have stepped in to bid $.255 in front of him with a $.005/sh downside risk. Very few shares traded hands at that level but those that did went to good homes.
At the end of July he again stepped up as a fund who participated in a 2011 Private Placement at $1.55 was forced to liquidate all positions held in the fund. The remaining position of 2,000,000+ sh was sold as a direct result of this forced liquidation; all in one day and all at $.35/sh.
Wally now owns in excess of 33% of all shares fully diluted.
Remember when I wrote earlier in this article that Wally says this may be the best company he has ever had? Wally’s most recent success included the sale of Northern Orion in 2007 for $1.09 billion and Miramar to Newmont in 2008 for $1.53 billion.
As you begin to understand how all the pieces to this picture fit together do you really think that the one company the Founding Father believes may offer the greatest potential of anything he has ever developed when his last two companies sold for $1.09-$1.53 billion respectively is only worth $26,000,000?
There are a number of reasons why LIO has not been discovered by the investment community but I personally believe the formal issuance of permits followed by production financing will be the triggers which begin to unveil the secrets to which I believe LIO may, in the future, be known as “The Envy of The Pacific Rim!”
In a world where newspaper headlines grow uglier every day it is also only a matter of time before investors begin to question the biased perspectives and motives from the always optimistic financial community. They will then begin to take notice of the logical red flags being generated by common sense and gut instinct screaming from within warning them that all is not well and it might be time to take precautions.
In the end, this awakening will lead these people to the inevitable conclusions that you already know; having investments where returns are based on the production of physical gold is a pretty good place to have your money. If my thinking is correct their “light bulb” will begin to burn bright at the same time the ability to purchase above ground physical gold no longer exists.
My gut instinct is telling me that the timing of this entire event may coincide with the initial gold production from Tuvatu. If correct, what do you think the price of gold will be then? What type of positive cash flow do you think that 30,000-50,000oz gold production will throw off then? More importantly, what do you think the market cap of Lion One Metals will be then?
There is a lot more to this story than the short piece I have put together here. There are other projects in this company that are equally as exciting which I have never written about as I view them as icing on the cake which will be written about in future articles.
In my opinion, the stock at current levels offers a very timely entry point at an excellent price. I’m sure many of you may have questions; feel free to give me a call as these are just a few of the multiple pieces to this puzzle.
As always, these are my own opinions and it is up to each of you to do your own homework as your opinion may differ from mine. We own shares in our portfolios and I do have stock options in this company.
Comment by Carl — April 22, 2015 @ 8:28 am
my feeling is we’ll hear more on rodadero shortly,maybe even this week, the grizzly,remember what regoci said some time ago,”we are going to drill rite into the heart of this thing”with good results from dbv, should get this valley a whole bunch of attention real quick,yes,patience will be rewarded..
Comment by tombc — April 22, 2015 @ 10:37 am
GBB-Some nice trenching results, 6.05 g/t over 8m, from the smallest proposed pit, located furthest west. Jon, as you have said many times so much yet to be discovered on the Granada property.
Comment by Bob — April 22, 2015 @ 12:32 pm
GBB have a NR out. They have some nice grades from the trenching undertaken this winter. They are some distance from the starter pit so the size of the deposit could increase.
Comment by Tom UK — April 22, 2015 @ 12:54 pm
Exciting newws for GBB:
Read at Canadian Mining Journal (April 22, 2015).
Comment by terry — April 22, 2015 @ 1:22 pm
Can’t believe how the venture always retreats after hitting 707pts. That wall/ resistance is pretty stiff.
Comment by tony t — April 22, 2015 @ 4:01 pm
NAR is a star in the last few days… I like this one.
Comment by Theodore — April 22, 2015 @ 5:50 pm
A question was asked of Frank regarding a comment in the NR, this is his response, which sounds exciting, but I feel makes things rather unclear as to exactly how they are progressing and why:
The question we are trying to answer is the baseline grade at least 0.5 grams per tonne gold. As part of our voluntary site rehab we sample everything. Half a gram and higher keeps up showing everywhere.
If it is, then there maybe no waste to ore ratio. The process economics will change because the mining method will change. Then the current permit CA we are applying for may not fit the new resource model we are now looking at. The other 25 permits we have to date may still apply as they are not resource dependent.
We may have uncovered something bigger than we first envisioned.
Comment by Tom UK — April 23, 2015 @ 5:28 am