Gold has traded between $1,185 and $1,194 on this final trading day of June…as of 8:35 am Pacific, bullion is unchanged at $1,188…Silver is flat at $16.65…Copper is off 3 cents at $2.75…Crude Oil has climbed $1.82 a barrel on lower U.S. inventories while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 97.05…
In a research note from UBS, Thursday, commodity analysts Edel Tully and Joni Treves said that Swiss Gold exports fell to 143.92 tonnes in April, a decline of 36% from the previous month but a rise of 30% compared to April of 2014…they noted that the decline in Gold exports also coincided with Hong Kong trade data as Gold exports from the island to mainland China dropped to 46.64 tonnes, down 25% from March and off 29% from the previous April…turning to India, UBS said they estimate that India imported 81.09 tonnes of Gold last month, down 38% from March but twice the amount of Gold imported last year…they added that last month’s import data is in line with the average over the past 10 years…the analysts noted that the drop in Gold imports and exports is more a reflection of seasonal factors than underlying fundamental weakness…
Gold Seasonality Chart
Historically, Gold’s weakest 3-month period of the year is April-May-June with June presenting the biggest challenge…between 1996 and 2015, Gold has declined in June over May 58% of the time with an average pullback of almost 1%…
We’ll see if 2015 will be different than the norm…the good news is, July-August-September is traditionally the strongest quarter of the year for Gold…
U.S. Economy Shrinks In Q1
The U.S. economy contracted early this year as harsh weather and a strong dollar sapped demand for American goods, underscoring the choppiness of an expansion that has struggled to lift off…GDP, the broadest sum of goods and services produced across the economy, shrank at a 0.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said this morning…the agency previously estimated output grew 0.2% from January through March…
This morning’s GDP downgrade came after fresh data showing a wider trade deficit and a slower pace of restocking by firms than earlier estimates, damping demand at factories and service providers…those developments have added to an already bleak picture of weak consumer spending and a downturn in business investment…
Wrong Mix Of Fiscal & Monetary Policies
The U.S. economy should be growing much faster, but the country has the wrong mix of fiscal and monetary policies, according to Richard Kovacevich, former chairman and CEO at Wells Fargo. “We should be growing at 3%, given the difficulty of this last recession,” he told CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’. “We always get a higher and faster recovery from a tough recession, and this is the slowest ever, and I think it’s the policies that are coming out of Washington, DC, that are causing this.”
U.S. Dollar Index Updated Chart
The recent rally in the U.S. Dollar Index is stalling around a critical resistance area (just above 97) as outlined in John’s 9-month daily chart most recently posted last Tuesday…another breakout by the greenback is exactly what the Venture and the commodity sector DON’T need at the moment, so it’s important to keep a close eye on how the Dollar Index is behaving…
Below is a different chart on the Index, a 4-month daily that supports the notion that the strong move since the mid-month low of 93.15 is merely a corrective bounce out of temporarily oversold conditions (RSI-14 is moving down from resistance and the %K indicator in the SS may have peaked)…the technical argument is that a double top was formed in March-April and a downtrend is in place that could persist for several months…
WTIC Updated Chart
Crude Oil has backed off from a band of resistance between $60 and $65 a barrel – not surprising given the nearly 50% advance in WTIC since the mid-March low of $42.41 which corresponded with the high in the U.S. Dollar Index…
Oil bulls can draw encouragement from the very strong support between Fib. levels $54.18 and $56.55…in the middle of that is the rising 50-day moving average (SMA) at $55…
Today’s Equity Markets
Asia
China’s Shanghai Composite was quiet overnight, falling 7 points to close the week at 4613…Japan’s Nikkei, meanwhile, hit a new 15-year high…
Europe
European equities were down significantly today on a slew of data releases and as uncertainty over Greece weighed on sentiment…
North America
The Dow is off 144 points as of 8:35 am Pacific…in Toronto, the TSX is down 145 points while the Venture has shed 2 points to 690…
TSX Gold Index Updated Chart
The TSX Gold Index continues to trade in a narrow range, similar to the Venture’s pattern…sooner or later, the Gold Index will take the path of least resistance given the apparent double bottom late last year and a strong foundation of support that has been built in recent months, beginning at the 150 level…
Fairmont Resources Inc. (FMR, TSX-V) Update
Further to the second part of our video interview with President and CEO Michael Dehn posted earlier this morning, Fairmont Resources (FMR, TSX-V) is now approaching its busiest period of the year on the ground at its flagship Buttercup and surrounding properties near Chicoutimi, Quebec, and the Port of Saguenay…the company has a niche opportunity in the industrial minerals space where this is strong local demand for the type of products the Buttercup can churn out, including titano-magnetite (dense) aggregate…
Technically, FMR is threatening to break out above Fib. resistance at 14 cents and a downsloping channel in place since late last year…
FMR is up 2 pennies at 15 cents as of 8:35 am Pacific…
Note: Jon holds a share position in FMR.
Can we get a no comment or comment to come or an actual comment regarding GBB? I bought on your recommendation and would appreciate a response whether positive or negative. Thanks.
Comment by Ted — May 30, 2015 @ 3:24 am
Anyone know how many GGI flow through shares left? Must be almost done by now? Regoci smarter than most investors giving credit for including me. Going into June, activity at the Grizzly should ramp up considerably. Who knows, may get a nice surprise from Rodadero or even La Patilla. There is no doubt GGI’s plan is carefully and methodically thought out which has resulted in minimal dilution. Once the FT shares are done, I expect a nice rise in the SP. Adding more right now.
Comment by Dan — May 30, 2015 @ 7:18 am
some action on DVN and TBO yesterday…….high volumes,etc…..it’s good to see some things possibly wake up again in June….US$ closed under 97 which might be a good sign for Gold,etc?
Comment by STEVEN1 — May 30, 2015 @ 8:41 am
Ted, I think they said that they will be commenting on GBB on Monday. Check through the posts over the last few days.
Dan, I have some cash ready for investing in GBB, but only after we get some news unless I can pick some up in the 8-9c range.
Comment by Tom UK — May 30, 2015 @ 8:51 am
Sorry Dan, I mean Garibaldi. GBB feels like too much of a gamble at the moment given the lack of CoA and a possible roll back in the not too distant future.
Comment by Tom UK — May 30, 2015 @ 9:08 am
Tom UK rollback is the kiss of death
Comment by ChartTrader — May 30, 2015 @ 10:44 am
Thanks Tom. I too am holding off with further investment in GBB unless they get the C of A or the NSR is inacted.. The CEO talks a good game to balance the negative stuff but I’m hoping the BullMarket guys can speak directly to him and get answers to the tough questions.
Comment by Ted — May 31, 2015 @ 3:12 am
GBB’s increase in resource estimate did not have a positive effect on the SP as anticipated by Frank. Hopefully the NSR will be received more positively. I guess the downside to a 3% NSR is that it makes a buyout less attractive to the buyer.
Comment by Tom UK — May 31, 2015 @ 4:44 am
I am hoping that BMR updates GBB and WRR soon as it’s been a while. Also, new month, so is DBV results out soon? one would think so….let’s hope June is a breakout month….
Comment by STEVEN1 — May 31, 2015 @ 9:43 am