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August 5, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,336 and $1,365 so far today…as of 8:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $22 an ounce at $1,338…Silver has slid 59 cents to $19.72…Copper is down a penny to $2.17…Crude Oil is 46 cents lower at $41.47 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped half a point to 96.28 on a better-than-expected jobs report…

This is like a re-run of last month – another blowout jobs number, so buy the dip in Gold!…amazingly, leading up to November’s elections, the Obama economy is now creating jobs faster than rabbits can make bunnies, while other indicators of the U.S. economy from sources other than the Labor Department aren’t so rosy…hmm…

Job creation crushed estimates in July as the economy supposedly added 255,000 positions, according to the Labor Department…the official unemployment rate (not the “real” unemployment rate which includes the unemployed, the under-employed and the discouraged) held steady at 4.9% while hourly wages increased by 8 cents or an annualized pace of 2.6%…get ready for more media hype again about the Fed raising rates soon with the U.S. economy “on fire!”, or so the liberal narrative will have the masses believe…professional and business services led the way in July’s jobs growth with 70,000 new positions, while health care rose 43,000 and Wall Street jobs increased by 18,000…leisure and hospitality continued to be a big contributor to job growth, adding 45,000 while government added 38,000 (or 15%) to the total (not good)…mining and logging took a hit (down another 7,000), manufacturing grew 9,000 while construction added 14,000

June’s blowout number was even revised upward from 287,000 to 292,000!…

“As well as being a long way above the consensus forecast of a 180,000 gain, the strength of July’s employment report was unusually (our emphasis) broad-based,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics…

Record Inflows For Precious Metal ETP’s

The year 2016 has already topped the previous record for the amount of money flowing into exchange-traded products featuring precious metals, Barclays reported yesterday…the bank issued research on all commodity investments through the first 7 months of the year, reporting combined inflows of nearly $8 billion during the last 2 months, taking year-to-date inflows to $50.8 billion, the strongest January-July tally since 2009…this, along with price appreciation, have pushed assets under management for all commodities to a 13-month high of $235 billion, well up from $161 billion at the end of 2015

India’s Gold Imports Remain Weak

India’s Gold imports fell for a 6th straight month in July as weak demand and record high discounts prompted banks and refineries to reduce overseas purchases of bullion.  “Rising supplies of scrap and smuggled Gold amid sluggish demand has been keeping the Indian market in deep discount,” according to Arindam Sarkar, Senior Vice-President at Axis Bank, India’s biggest bullion importing bank…Indian demand should improve later in the year – the December quarter usually accounts for about a third of the country’s Gold sales with the start of the wedding season as well as festivals like Dhanteras, when buying Gold is considered auspicious…

Goldman Gives Bearish Outlook on Copper

Of course they also gave a doomsday scenario for Gold entering this year, but a storm’s about to hit the global Copper market according to Goldman Sachs which forecasts that the price may slump nearly 20% from current levels to $1.80 per pound over the next 12 months as mine supply picks up, producers enjoy lower costs and demand growth softens…

“Company guidance and our estimates suggest that Copper is entering the eye of the supply storm,” analysts including Max Layton and Yubin Fu wrote today…

Copper has lagged gains seen in other raw materials so far this year, especially Zinc and Nickel, which have benefited from forecasts for global shortages…for Copper, there’s been solid growth in global mine supply in the first half and that trend is expected to pick up in the coming quarters, according to Goldman

From a technical standpoint, Goldman’s forecast doesn’t jive with John’s charts but we’ll examine that in more detail next week…

Financial Engineering

U.S. corporations are once again on pace to raise more than a trillion dollars in new debt this year, and the Bank of England just added more fuel to the bond fire…the BOE is a big new buyer in an already hot corporate debt market, and its program announced yesterday combined with programs of other central banks puts downward pressure on global interest rates, even as the Federal Reserve hopes (against all odds) to tighten sometime later this year…very little corporate debt is going to cap ex – much of it is being used for M&A, share buybacks and dividend increases…the fact that U.S. corporations have decided to borrow money in order to fuel growth larger than that warranted by economic demand may cause some major problems down the road…August is usually a quiet month, but already $48.25 billion in investment grade debt has been issued in the U.S., making it the 5th biggest week of the year…so far in 2016, investment grade corporations have already issued more than $850 billion in debt according to Informa Global Markets…last year, they issued $1.25 trillion, topping the record $1.1 trillion in 2014

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. Secrets of the Snip revealed…

2. TSX chart helps confirm outlook and target area for Venture

3. Daniel’s Den – exclamation points on the sad state of the economy and politics…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings, and all BMR exclusive content, or login with your username and password.

5 Comments

  1. Excellent call on Aben Jon!

    Comment by Daniel — August 5, 2016 @ 8:14 am

  2. does anyone else experience difficulty accessing the morning musings? I log in but it still won’t log me in.

    Comment by mmurphy — August 5, 2016 @ 8:35 am

  3. Everything seems to be working fine on our end, mmurphy…perhaps try a computer reboot, or maybe you’ve entered the wrong password…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 5, 2016 @ 9:08 am

  4. RYO keeps creeping up. Go Peru stocks. Sorry, in Lima, have to root for them.

    Comment by dave — August 5, 2016 @ 11:00 am

  5. US creating all these jobs, American economy is “booming”, and markets hitting all time highs, yet look at gdp and we can’t even raise interest rates 25 bp. Just more bs to help elect crooked hilary.

    Comment by Sameer — August 5, 2016 @ 2:36 pm

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