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August 30, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,316 and $1,325 so far today…as of 7:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $5 an ounce at $1,318…Silver is off 14 cents at $18.70…Copper is flat at $2.09…Crude Oil is off slightly at $46.92 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped nearly another half point to 95.95 (strong resistance band between 96 and 97)…

Gold may continue to trade in a narrow range until Friday’s much-anticipated U.S. jobs report…180,000 job gains are expected for August, according to a Reuters‘ poll, below the better-than-expected (and unusual) 255,000 additions in July and 292,000 gains in June…it’s now just over 2 months before U.S. elections, so it’s hard to imagine the Labor Department will want to tinker with the Obama/Clinton narrative of strong U.S. jobs growth and an “improving” economy…count on more  “rigged” numbers…

The Conference Board reported this morning that its index for U.S. consumer confidence rose to 101.1 in August from a downwardly revised 96.7 in July…consensus expectations from most news organizations had called for a reading of around 97.0 to 97.3

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, given the correlation between Gold prices and the level of monetary expansion by central banks, the metal should be some $400 higher…since the beginning of 2005, the balance sheets of the main 4 central banks (U.S., China, Japan and the ECB) have expanded by 300%…theoretically, in viewing Gold as a currency, it should be trading closer to $1,700, they say, if one were to assume that the value of Gold should appreciate to keep the overall value of the big 4 aggregate balance sheet equivalent to that of the value of the above ground Gold stocks…the metal has been doing some “catching up” this year in the context of that theory as Gold’s gains have outpaced 2016 central bank monetary expansion…

Central Banks Slow Gold Purchases

Central banks – holders of about 32,900 metric tons of bullion – cut their purchases by 40% during the 3 months through June, compared with the same period a year earlier, to the lowest since 2011, World Gold Council figures compiled by Bloomberg show…it was the third straight quarterly drop, the longest such streak in at least 5 years, and it came at a time when Gold was enjoying its biggest first-half gain in 4 decades…

Why the change?…central banks in emerging market nations have been adding less Gold recently as the amount of cash they’re getting from exports is declining…through April, global trade in general has fallen to its lowest levels since 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund, while currency reserves are down almost 8% from a peak 2 years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg

A prime example is China, which has amassed the world’s 5th-largest Gold reserves while becoming the world’s 2nd-largest economy…weaker exports are curbing cash inflows the government invests in assets such as Treasuries and bullion…the current-account surplus, which reached a 6-year high in the middle of 2015, fell by more than a quarter in the past year while its currency reserves declined by one-fifth from about $4 trillion in 2014…in May of this year, China reported no Gold purchases…after bouncing back in June, the central bank’s buying in July was at the second-slowest rate in a year…

Central Bank Gold Purchases

Central banks have been a bullish influence on Gold, especially after the financial crisis, when prices shot up to a record high in late 2011…before then, government bullion reserves had been dropping for almost 2 decades…but central banks have been net buyers every year since halting the selloff in 2008, and as of June had the biggest hoard in almost 15 years…

European Commission Targets Ireland, Apple

The European Commission has ordered the Irish government to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14 billion U.S.) – plus interest – in back taxes from Apple…the executive arm of the European Union today concluded that Ireland granted undue tax benefits to the U.S. tech giant, which is illegal under EU state aid rules…

In a statement accompanying the ruling, EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, in charge of competition policy, said: “The Commission’s investigation concluded that Ireland granted illegal tax benefits to Apple, which enabled it to pay substantially less tax than other businesses over many years.  In fact, this selective treatment allowed Apple to pay an effective corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003 down to 0.005% in 2014.”

The European Commission accused Ireland in 2014 of dodging international tax rules by letting Apple shelter profits worth tens of billions of dollars from tax collectors in return for maintaining jobs…Apple and Ireland rejected the accusation and have both said they will appeal any adverse ruling…

Apple was one of the first U.S. companies to relocate much of its earnings in Ireland, but they could hardly be blamed considering that U.S. corporate tax rates are among the highest in the world – as much as 35%…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. TSX Gold Index update – key levels to watch…

2. Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX-V) drills into more high-grade at Railroad-Pinion Project…

3. Four “special situations”…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

21 Comments

  1. Jon, what happened to the article on KSK? That was supposed to happen last week and then Monday this week. Thanks

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 8:00 am

  2. We’re working on it Dan1, I had to make an unexpected short trip and just got back this afternoon. So as soon as we can post, we will.

    Comment by BMR — August 30, 2016 @ 12:56 pm

  3. Update Production GBB:

    Frank J
    Administrator
    (58 posts)
    28 Aug 2016, 14:57

    Lindam

    Here is an update as we see now

    We need 10 million to go into production but everybody out there wants to give us 30 million plus

    If we custom mill we lose 60 million which is the profit the mills will make in 3 years from us

    If we buy a new mill 24 million plus 10 million to install which is twice the capacity we need. We save on hauling, pour more gold, lower cost per ounce and still stay on track with the planned 25 K ounces per year even if the mill delivery is 18 months late.

    So 60 million less 34 million equal free mill plus 26 million in the bank. Still produce 75 K ounces in 3 years plus move onto the planned target of 100 K per year.

    We have still not completed reviewing all the mills in the area. We still perfer to custom mill in the near term.

    Frank

    Comment by Arjan — August 30, 2016 @ 1:21 pm

  4. GBB: We need 10 million to go into production but everybody out there wants to give us 30 million plus

    ??? Jon any comments?!

    Regards,

    Arjan

    Comment by Arjan — August 30, 2016 @ 1:22 pm

  5. Update Exploration GBB at Aukeko from the forum:

    Frank J
    Administrator
    (58 posts)
    29 Aug 2016, 16:26

    Gatekeeper

    we will drill as soon as possible

    Frank
    Reply

    gatekeeper
    (31 posts)
    29 Aug 2016, 01:56

    Frank, good to hear. So when the permit arrives you can immediately start drilling? Do you expect the permit to arrive soon? Thank you again. Regards, Arjan
    Edit Delete Reply

    Frank J
    Administrator
    (58 posts)
    28 Aug 2016, 22:12

    Gatekeeper

    yes

    Frank
    Reply

    gatekeeper
    (31 posts)
    28 Aug 2016, 20:37

    Frank, is there still earmarked money left for drilling at Aukeko? -Arjan-

    Comment by Arjan — August 30, 2016 @ 1:23 pm

  6. NRN – Volume went from very low for most of the day and them boom! Scotia went on a buying spree. Wonder if there is a leak of some sort or just a few games being played? The mineraliztion at Huckleberry doesn’t seem to be very far from surface given the rock assays and textures so the drill may not have to go very deep before they see something they like.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 1:30 pm

  7. It’s amazing what can happen once the drill starts turning, Dan1…certainly a possibility that drilling of this particular target (Huckleberry) could quickly intersect massive sulfides…1 month of drilling at Huckleberry should prove very interesting…let’s keep our fingers crossed…the charts for NRN and CLE are favorable, hopefully that’s a sign of good news coming from the ground…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 30, 2016 @ 1:55 pm

  8. Yes Jon, CLE went up as well today so that gives more credence that it may have something to do with the Labrador Trough.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 2:23 pm

  9. Although the volume was low on CLE.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 2:24 pm

  10. Yes, Dan, it came in a minute too for NRN. They still have that offer at .25, but as we saw it can go quick.

    Also, it was funny how that 100k bid appeared for CLE at .11 all of a sudden late.

    Comment by dave — August 30, 2016 @ 2:24 pm

  11. ALERT: Buy signals triggered on CLE, and it just went VERY BULLISH, Short – Medium, Long Term

    Comment by dave — August 30, 2016 @ 2:33 pm

  12. Yes Dave, interesting how the bid came in late for CLE. Usually that’s the way the area play works. Grandaddy first followed by the grandkids.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 2:35 pm

  13. I’m predicting that Friday’s rigged job numbers will be lower than the 180k expected so the fed has an excuse not to raise rates in sept. But the crooks won’t let it be too low. I’m guessing the number will be 140k with no change in unemployment rate.

    Comment by Sameer — August 30, 2016 @ 2:44 pm

  14. I thought my bid for CLE was going to get filled at .10 and then some big bids showed up. Hopefully something positive going on.

    Comment by Danny — August 30, 2016 @ 3:07 pm

  15. Friend of mine spoke with ooo today

    drill holes up to 1000 feet completed
    3rd drill rig being moved in
    core at the lab assays pending
    Group out of Europe will be touring property in Sept

    Comment by TheSkipper — August 30, 2016 @ 5:16 pm

  16. GBB – someone wants their cake and to eat it too, Frank. No money in the till but visions of millions to come. Take the custom milling for now. Get a ball rolling. There are so many issues with starting a mine from scratch that aren’t funny. Franks’ dream of going from being the geo of BigValley to CEO of GBB, aka mine of the century, is nuts. Arequipa is a wonderful model of what to do,. Drill it, tease the big boys so they ante up and move on. Not one person involved in this deal knows how to mine low grade with volume. I thought Franks’ background was high grade narrow and that his motto was not to drill it out and get a resource, but mine it by like the garemperos do.

    NRN – be surprised to hear a peep yet. targets are deep and 30 days / 5 holes schedule suggests they might be 100-200 M deep so far, but visuals mean squat (EQT + Cartaway as example) for this target I would guess. Someone working on leaked info wouldn’t be as silly to leave a buying trail thru one house, one hopes.
    CLE moved 2 cents on $2K of buying and stalled. Be interesting to see if those bids at 11 are there in the AM

    Comment by david — August 30, 2016 @ 5:25 pm

  17. David – Visuals do mean something. Can be good or bad. When Diamond Fields pulled the core out of Voiseys Bay and when NOT pulled the core from Eagles Nest it was quite clear what they had. Copper and Nickel is very distinguishable to the naked eye if it is massive. Not saying this is the case with NRN, but it is quite possible they can hit at 100 meters or 200 meters. Remember this target hasn’t been drilled before.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 30, 2016 @ 5:45 pm

  18. Dan1 – agree with your comments, read the book on the discovery of Voisey Bay “The Big Score”, a great read, they could tell from the visuals that they had something significant, not saying it is the case here but as you say, you can tell from the visuals if there is significant nickel.

    Comment by Danny — August 30, 2016 @ 8:39 pm

  19. All it takes is for the drillers to THINK what they see is good, but I do agree with David on the one house buying spree. Two or three drillers most likely would trade through different houses and if it was a leak, you would have saw other houses accumulate. It could have been one guy who trades with Scotia who forgot to take his Valium yesterday.

    Comment by dave — August 31, 2016 @ 4:27 am

  20. Yes, I tend to agree with David’s comments on the one house buying spree as well. It was the visual part that I disagree with. While it’s true some visuals don’t result in good assays, there are some that do.

    Comment by Dan1 — August 31, 2016 @ 5:12 am

  21. Most drillers I know (a few hundred) don’t trade, to busy making payments on jacked up trucks and tricked out sleds. I would guess a few might, but in my experience the young crews don’t manage their finances very well

    Comment by Mmurphy — August 31, 2016 @ 6:03 am

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