The manufacturing sector saw activity contract in August (49.4 was the reading, a few points below expectations) after 5 consecutive months of modest expansion, the Institute for Supply Management said this morning…some in the mainstream media actually expressed their “shock” at this morning’s number – why should they be “shocked” unless their only source of information is the Fed, the Obama administration or Crooked Hillary?…
Gold has traded between $1,302 and $1,316 so far today…as of 10:15 am Pacific, bullion has reversed from lower levels and is up $5 an ounce at $1,314…Silver has added 23 cents to $18.84…Copper is flat at $2.09…Crude Oil has slipped another $1.28 a barrel to $43.42 while the U.S. Dollar Index has retreated one-third of a point to 95.67…
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust posted the first monthly dip in August in 4 months…however, the fall was very modest at only 1.6%…
Barrick Gold’s (ABX, TSX) credit outlook has been raised by S&P Global Ratings as the world’s biggest bullion producer’s balance sheet benefits from higher metal prices, asset sales and lower costs…Barrick’s outlook was lifted to positive from stable, S&P wrote in a statement yesterday, affirming the miner’s BBB- rating…shares in Barrick have more than doubled in value this year (despite a 20% slide in August) after 5 straight annual declines, and its bonds have gained more than 30%…
More Fedspeak
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday he’s increasingly convinced that U.S. economic growth had slowed permanently, a situation that will keep U.S. interest rates low for a long time ahead…embracing Harvard Professor Larry Summers’ so-called secular stagnation theory, Evans argued that an aging U.S. population and slowing productivity growth mean there is little reason for interest rates to rise either fast or far…expectations of low growth have become so embedded in corporate and investing behavior, he said, that even if inflation rises unexpectedly and the Fed has to raise rates faster than it now anticipates, a detrimental spike in long-term interest rates is unlikely…
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Contracts In August
Oops, We Erred Again!
Another big revision this morning from the U.S. Labor Department – labor costs grew much faster than initially thought in the 2nd quarter while worker productivity slumped, which could pressure corporate profits and business spending…
Looking Ahead To Tomorrow’s Jobs Report – A Surprise Coming?
An upbeat payrolls report tomorrow would reinforce the narrative that a U.S. interest rate hike is likely before the end of the year, but history shows there’s a good chance the number will fall short of the consensus estimate of 180,000, in line with this year’s monthly average of 186,000…
August has been an anomaly in recent years…the average initially reported August non-farm payrolls number going back to 2011 is just 87,700…moreover, the typical August report over the past 5 years has missed market expectations by 52,000, according to Deutsche Bank U.S. chief economist Joseph LaVorgna…and if that’s not enough, 9 of the last 12 Augusts have missed expectations, with an average downside surprise of 46,000…
August is tied as the worst month of the year for job creation during the post-recession recovery and is also the noisiest in terms of how much the initial number differs from the final revision 2 months later…
It would therefore be highly unusual if tomorrow’s number were to surprise to the upside…but in this U.S. election year, we’ve seen that anything is possible!…
Oil Update
U.S. Crude stocks rose much more than expected yesterday – by 2.3 million barrels to 525.9 million barrels in the week to August 26 – but rising U.S. storage must be considered alongside a sharp decline in so-called “spare capacity” elsewhere in the world, especially Saudi Arabia…the International Energy Agency estimates that OPEC’s spare capacity has fallen by 1.4 million barrels per day over the past few years, down to a total of 1.9 million barrels per day…Saudi Arabia makes up the vast majority of that spare capacity at 1.6 million barrels, but those stockpiles are trending lower as the country continues to pump at record levels in a bid to maintain market share over competitors…that decline in spare capacity is an important caveat in the outlook for Oil prices…
U.S. Election Race Tightens – Gold Bullish
The race for the White House is likely going to be much closer than most pundits have been assuming…a new Fox News poll released last night finds Donald Trump gaining ground in the head-to-head matchup, despite improvements from Hillary Clinton on top issues, and the race is particularly tight when all 4 Presidential candidates are included…the poll finds Clinton garners 41% to Trump’s 39%, while Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 9% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4%…
Trump may have gained additional momentum yesterday with his visit to Mexico followed by a fiery speech on immigration last night in Arizona…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. Zealous for Zeolite!…
2. The emerging Cobalt opportunity…
3. Another Silver surge on the way?…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…
Geez Jon, I just mentioned CNZ on yesterday’s musings. I want to add some interesting points. CNZ has no debt, and it is costing them nothing to mine the material as it is being paid for by another company. 0 debt, and 0 cost, I understand the other company is paying their burn rate also. In exchange, CNZ reeps a royalty and commission percent on everything that is sold. It’s a no brainer.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 9:50 am
I met with company President Ray Paquette a few weeks ago, Dave, and was very impressed, so we’ve had this on our radar screen internally for a while now…very strong group behind this, and Ray is well respected out here in British Columbia…
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 10:14 am
A few weeks ago is about when I bought CNZ. I think I may have mentioned it one time here, but I am not sure on that, this is a keeper.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 10:23 am
CNZ – there is the new high. For those who chase a little, she may breath a little tomorrow. This has been a normal chart pattern. May see .44 tomorrow depending on whether she takes off past .50 today or not.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 10:26 am
Jon – thx for your comments on my previous post:)
Comment by Patricia — September 1, 2016 @ 1:27 pm
I bought a few CLE @ .10, didn’t think it would get that low, it almost seems like tax loss selling for some of these stocks but it’s kind of early for that.
Comment by Danny — September 1, 2016 @ 2:51 pm
I see some power coming into CNZ this month, Dave, in part given just how it refused to fall below the mid-30’s on a pullback in August. They have a fascinating story with the Zeolite, and cash flow that has now started, so the stock is sure to garner more attention.
Comment by Jon - BMR — September 1, 2016 @ 3:39 pm
CNZ – The president did not even want to put the story out there until they were positive cash flow. He is in the beginning process of telling the story. The company that is funding everything is “Absorbent Products” out of Kamloops B.C. – I know we are beating this hard today, but this is not one of the pump and dumps out there. This company will see a dollar and possibly by end of October. They have also applied for a OTC listing which is due shortly. Looking at the chart will scare most away, but this stock has totally been de-risked. Jon, if I may steel one of your qoutes: “if it looks like a duck and quackes like a duck, then its a duck”. this one has legs that will continue and it is quacking.
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 6:23 pm
I forgot to mention the uses for Zeolite are mind boggling. There was a report published that talked about it controling emissions by 81%. Ok, I know, I am posting too much. I am off to Tarapoto. Cheers
Comment by dave — September 1, 2016 @ 6:30 pm