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September 15, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,309 and $1,329 so far today…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $7 an ounce at $1,316…Silver is up 6 cents at $19.00…Copper is flat at $2.15 after a big jump yesterday…Crude Oil has added 50 cents to $44.08 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 95.33

More disappointing economic data out of the U.S. today (retail sales, industrial production), but the Gold market took a minor hit after an unexpectedly sharp improvement in the Philadelphia Fed business survey for September…the general business index that covers the factory sector showed a gain of 12.8 in September from 2.0 in August (the reading was –2.9 in July)…this report fits into the narrative of U.S. monetary policy hawks who want to see an interest rate rise sooner rather than later…good luck, it won’t happen!…

U.S. retail sales, key to overall economic growth, were disappointing last month, falling 0.3% amid weak purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods…this points to cooling domestic demand that will no doubt play a factor in the Fed almost certainly holding off of an interest rate hike next week…core retail sales are up just 2.8% year-over-year, the slowest pace of gains since March…to put this level into perspective, the 5-year average is 3.5%…the average seen in the mid 2000’s mortgage equity withdrawal bubble was 5.4% and the late 1990’s average was 5.6%…

Meanwhile, industrial production fell more than expected in August, hurt in part by a sharp decline in utilities output, according to data from the Federal Reserve…the industrial sector measured by the central bank comprises manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities…there were some positive signs for the hard-hit energy sector, however, with mining output rising 1.0%, it’s 4th consecutive monthly increase…

Washington Gridlock Hurting Economy

Americans blame political gridlock in Washington for the country’s declining economic competitiveness and hold both Democrats and Republicans responsible, a Harvard Business School study released yesterday found…

The study noted that U.S. GDP grew at a rate of only about 2% since 2000, well below the 3 to 4% average in the prior half-century…it said a range of factors including a complicated corporate tax code, tangled immigration system and aging roads have contributed to the slow growth…

The study contends that factors including a growing wealth gap, declines in productivity growth and a rise in the number of working-age people neither employed nor seeking jobs show that the U.S. economy is becoming less competitive…

A majority of the school’s alumni surveyed said they believed the U.S. political system was hurting the economy…that view crossed party lines, with 82% of Republicans, 74% of independents and 56% of Democrats agreeing…

Tightening U.S. Election – Gold’s “Trump” Card

“Groupthink mentality” still assumes Hillary Clinton is going to coast to victory in the November Presidential election, but polls released over the past few days show Clinton losing to Donald Trump in several key swing states in a trend will set off alarm bells for Democrats and the liberal mainstream media…these new polls, from several different outlets, show Trump ahead in some states where he hasn’t led any polls in months (Ohio, for example), and some are the best general election poll results Trump has ever gotten…the market (and the world) likely won’t start paying serious attention to the election until after the first debate in 11 days (September 26)…expect Gold to firm up considerably on a growing perception that Trump could win…

More Powers To First Nations?

The National Post reported last night that Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan is considering a request to give First Nations the power to directly call in the military when their treaty, environmental and other rights are threatened…Ron Swain, vice-chief with the Congress of Aboriginal Peoples, told Sajjan during consultations with indigenous groups yesterday that aboriginal communities deserve the same rights as provincial governments, which have the authority under the National Defence Act to call in the military to fight civil unrest and during other crises…

“We believe, in protecting our sovereign territory and our issues around environmental concerns, we should be able to trigger the same response and have our Armed Forces defending our treaties and our territories,” Swain said during a break in the closed-door meeting in Winnipeg that included about a dozen aboriginal leaders and academics…give us your thoughts on this issue in our comments section…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. Fresh funds ($1.5 million) and a new CEO and Chairman (PDAC President takes the helm!) bode well for Orex Exploration (OX, TSX-V) and its 730,000-ounce Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia…

2. The Snip comes back to life – Skeena Resources (SKE, TSX-V) hits high-grade intercepts in each of its first 8 drill holes adjacent to the original mine workings with widths and grades consistent with historical results at this past-producer in the Heart of Gold Camp

3. What’s the Venture’s next move?…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

8 Comments

  1. Hi Guys! Just curious on your thoughts on SIR, RRS, CCE, FMS and TLO. BTW, thanks for bringing up CNZ. I actually was looking at IZN. Both look like good plays.

    Comment by ARIMA — September 15, 2016 @ 1:22 pm

  2. Nice raise for Lion One ($38 million), closing announced this morning. Good news as well for AWE.

    LION ONE ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF $38 MILLION PRIVATE PLACEMENT

    Lion One Metals Ltd. has received TSX Venture Exchange approval for the completion of its non-brokered private placement announced Aug. 30, 2016. The Company has sold 41,536,436 units at a price of $0.92 for gross proceeds of $38,213,521 and has increased the number of issued shares of the Company to 101,712,044. Proceeds of the Private Placement will be used to fund the exploration and development of the Company’s 100% owned and fully permitted high grade Tuvatu Gold Project in Fiji and for working capital purposes.

    Each unit in the Private Placement consists of one common share (the “Common Shares”) and one transferable common share purchase warrant (the “Warrants”). The Warrants are exercisable at a price of $1.35 per share until March 16, 2018, subject to an accelerated expiry option whereby the Company can trigger an accelerated 30-day expiry of the Warrants if the closing price of the Company’s Common Shares listed on the TSX-V remain higher than $1.75 for 20 consecutive trading days. On the 20th consecutive trading day above $1.75 (the “Acceleration Trigger Date”), the Warrant expiry date may be accelerated to 30 trading days after the Acceleration Trigger Date by the issuance of a news release announcing such acceleration, within two trading days of the Acceleration Trigger Date. The Warrants, if fully exercised, represent $56,074,189 of additional gross proceed potential. All securities issuable pursuant to this Private Placement are subject to a four month hold period expiring on January 17, 2017.

    Significant institutional investors in the Private Placement include New York-based investment firm Donald Smith Value Fund, L.P. (“Donald Smith”) which acquired 14,250,000 units in the Private Placement for gross proceeds of $13,110,000 and has become the Company’s largest institutional shareholder and a new insider of the Company, holding 14.01% of the Company on an undiluted basis, or 19.90% on a fully diluted basis. This is Donald Smith’s first acquisition of Common Shares of the Company. In connection with the Private Placement the Company has paid an aggregate of $1,898,402 in finders’ fees in accordance with the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange.

    As a result of the Private Placement, Donald Smith will be required to file an early warning report. Donald Smith has acquired Common Shares for investment purposes.

    For more information on Lion One including technical reports please visit the Company’s website at http://www.liononemetals.com or the SEDAR website at http://www.sedar.com. For more information or to obtain a copy of the early warning report filed under applicable Canadian securities laws in connection with the Private Placement, please see the Company’s profile on SEDAR or contact Donald Smith at (212) 284-0990 or at the following address: 152 W. 57th Street, 22nd Floor, New York, New York 10019.

    We seek Safe Harbor.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 16, 2016 @ 4:49 am

  3. LIO – if they can start to announce that they have equip deals etc and look like thy have turned the road to fast tracking the project, vs back of the envelope thinking, they could find themselves with an extra $20MM next year, as the current plan is about $60MM CDN capex today. tight shr structure still w the fund holding and Wally holding a huge chunk of the shrs.

    Comment by david — September 16, 2016 @ 7:39 am

  4. Jon, take a look at the new Sequoi presentation on the NRN site. The VTEMS are simply outstanding.

    http://www.northern-shield.com/misc/Sequoi_Update.pdf

    Comment by Dan1 — September 16, 2016 @ 7:46 am

  5. Thanks, Dan1, you are very observant! – we are studying that and preparing to comment on it…has significant implications for the NRN project, and also for Clean Commodities as there’s no way in our view that these interpreted massive sulphide pools (perhaps also much larger than suggested) don’t extend under CLE’s ground…

    http://www.northern-shield.com/misc/Sequoi_Update.pdf

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 16, 2016 @ 8:02 am

  6. NRN and ‘shallow’ too boot! weather is touch and go, for the end of the mth, with regards to doing Sequoi still, but they know that shrholders are keen to have a hole into this. Ian has been in Aus and Colorado over the past wk.

    Comment by david — September 16, 2016 @ 9:49 am

  7. Thanks Jon, looking forward to your comments on the new Sequoi presentation.

    Comment by Dan1 — September 16, 2016 @ 11:40 am

  8. Great day for BLO…it was just a matter of time before it started to pop. Good news today.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 16, 2016 @ 12:57 pm

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