BullMarketRun.com

Gold has traded between $1,306 and $1,317 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is down $6 an ounce at $1,308…Silver is off 18 cents at $18.77…Copper has slipped a penny to $2.15…Crude Oil has fallen 82 cents a barrel to $43.09 while the U.S. Dollar Index has surged three-quarters of a point to 96.01 (strong band of resistance between 96 and 97)…

According to calculations by analysts from Commerzbank, August Gold imports into India fell 81% compared to last year while imports during the first 8 months of the year were down by 300 tonnes. “It would not be appropriate to blame only the numerous restrictions imposed by the government, either, as these were already in place last year. Clearly buyers are price-sensitive and not willing to pay the sharply risen Gold prices. Although we are confident that imports will soon recover again thanks to the wedding and festival season in India, the Gold price will also lack support from this side in the near future,” they conclude…

CPI Increase Boosts Dollar

U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in August, causing the dollar to firm this morning (won’t last) which in turn has put some mild pressure on Gold…rising rents and healthcare costs offset a drop in gasoline prices last month with the CPI jumping 0.2% after being unchanged in July…in the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 1.1% after advancing 0.8% in July…the so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.3% last month, the biggest increase since February…overall, however, U.S. inflationary pressures remain rather muted, and the slew of economic data that was released this week strongly suggests the Fed won’t be hiking interest rates at its meeting next week…that leaves December as the Fed’s best “window” (at the moment) for raising rates, but November’s election results – not to mention other factors – could very easily close that window…at that point the Fed will have a really serious problem on it hands…

U.S. consumer sentiment (preliminary), reported by the University of Michigan after the Labor Department’s CPI this morning, came in at 89.8 in September, the same as August and shy of the consensus estimate of 90.8…

Mexican Peso Hits New Low, Loonie Drops To 200-day SMA

This is good news if you’re headed to Mexico on vacation – the battered peso hit a new record low this morning, weakening by more than 1% to reach 19.6235 pesos to the dollar…that surpasses the previous record low on June 24, the day after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union…

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is also weak this morning, touching its rising 200-day moving average at 75.5 cents for the first time since breaking out above that SMA early this year…

Oil Update

Further to Daniel’s piece the other day in Daniel’s Den, Oil discoveries have fallen to the lowest level since 1952 and the global economy is becoming dangerously reliant on Crude supply from political hotspots, the world’s energy watchdog has warned…that means there are more upside risks to Oil prices than most people appreciate…

Annual investment in Oil and Gas projects has crashed from $780 billion to $450 billion U.S. over the last 2 years in an unprecedented collapse, and there is no sign yet of a recovery next year…

The International Energy Agency said wells are depleting at an average rate of 9% annually…drillers are not finding enough Oil to replace these barrels, laying the foundation for an Oil price spike and raising serious questions about energy security…

“There is evidence that cuts in exploration activities have already resulted in a dramatic decline in new Oil discoveries, dropping to levels not seen in the last 60 years,” said the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2016 report…

The drop is so drastic that the effects are likely to overwhelm slow gains from fuel efficiency and the switch to electric cars, at least for the rest of this decade…

Furthermore, the IEA said global spare capacity is wafer thin at just 1.7 million barrels a day (b/d), stripping out idle capacity in war-torn Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria…this implies that the market will swing from glut to scarcity with lightning speed once the energy cycle turns…

In Today’s Morning Musings…

1. How this stock is gearing up for one of its typical upside moves (at least 50%)…

2. Great value in Orex Exploration (OX, TSX-V), especially after financing and management shuffle…

3. Gold update – dollar bulls have it wrong (again)…

4. Daniel’s Den – Part 2 from Day 1 at the Precious Metals Summit in Colorado…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…