Gold has traded between $1,221 and $1,232 so far today…as of 11:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $4 an ounce at $1,225…Silver is 15 cents lower at $16.91…Copper has slipped 4 cents to $2.48…Nickel is up a nickel at $5.12…Crude Oil is flat at $45.75 while the U.S. Dollar Index has added one-third of a point to 100.44…
World bond markets continue to see their yields rise in the wake of last week’s Trumpquake which has raised concerns about rising inflationary price pressures…St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in London today that he favors a rate hike at the central bank’s upcoming meeting December 13–14…that’s consistent with his earlier thinking…traders have assigned about a 94% probability, the highest level this year, to a Fed rate boost next month according to futures contracts…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to do something it has done only twice in the past 20 years…the blue-chip index, which has posted record closes for 4 straight sessions, had gained 8.6% year-to-date entering today’s session, outperforming the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ which were up 6.7% and 5.8% for the year, respectively…the last 2 times the Dow outperformed the S&P and the NASDAQ in a year when all 3 were higher were 2006 and 1996…
Fund managers are betting on a post-election future where inflation finally takes root, the economy shows real growth, and cash is no longer king…in its first survey since Donald Trump’s upset victory last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch found an abrupt change in investor sentiment…higher inflation, for example, is now expected by a net 85% of the fund managers surveyed by BofAML, a 12-year high…
This morning, the Labor Department reported weaker than expected producer prices for October as they were unchanged following September’s 0.3% rise…ahead of the report, consensus forecasts were calling for a 0.3% increase…on an annual basis the headline index is up 0.8% which is still the highest 1-year change since late 2014…headline core inflation, meanwhile, is up 1.2%, its highest level in 2 years…
CRB Index Update
The recent big jump in Copper prices is a sign of possible higher inflation on the way…however, the CRB Index, a basket of commodities sorted into 4 different groups, remains just barely above its 200-day moving average (SMA) of 181…
The CRB has shown tremendous support at the 177 Fib. level and we believe it’s just a matter of time before momentum starts to build in the index after a period of consolidation that began in early June following the yearly high of 196, a 26% lift from the January low…RSI(14) continues to bounce along the 50% level…watch for an acceleration in the CRB Index into year-end based on the bullish bias in this 2.5-year weekly chart…the CRB is off slightly at 182 as of 11:00 am Pacific…
In Today’s Morning Musings…
1. Marijuana stocks on a high – Aphria triggers a circuit breaker, others also go for a ride…
2. American Manganese (AMY, TSX-V) hits new multi-year high…
3. Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) volume surges to levels not seen since early 2014 as Hat speculation builds…
4. Daniel’s Den – could there be something brewing between Kopin and Apple?…
Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…
canopy growth… a high of 16+ back down to earth at 9ish… like yeow.. retirement all in one day!:)
Comment by Jeremy — November 16, 2016 @ 12:27 pm
opps… and back up to 11 and change….
Comment by Jeremy — November 16, 2016 @ 12:27 pm
Anyone who has been watching L2 on DBV all day can clearly see what is going on. The bids and asks keep flipping big back and forth. But the volume seems to set a clear picture that L2 does not matter right now. Since 1400, all the buys have been 5 digits. There is some accumulation going on. They may be able to shake the tree again, but I believe .08 is bottom.
Comment by dave — November 16, 2016 @ 12:30 pm
NR – $1.1MM ft at 17 cents – bahhhh
Comment by david — November 16, 2016 @ 12:58 pm
Same old song and dance, maybe, looks like, could be, enough already just say it, another month of this bs, the dollar will be problematic..
Comment by Laddy — November 17, 2016 @ 5:46 am
It’s almost certain we’re going to get a rate hike next month, Laddy, and that’s actually going to be good for Gold—-especially when it happens and the news is out of the way. With the fiscal vacuum now filled in Washington, Fed hawks will insist on a hike December 14.
Comment by Jon - BMR — November 17, 2016 @ 6:03 am
yes gold will jump,i for one am cheering for her to do it.
Comment by Laddy — November 17, 2016 @ 6:14 am
wait what. in the past didn’t a rate hike mean bonds were more attractive(bad for gold) , the USD strengthened (bad for gold) and long bonds are already saying its gonna cost ya more for a bigger debt. Now, a bigger debt is good for Gold, but that’s future seeing. So short term gold is soft and long term (3-4 mths) we get an uptick in gold as inflation(lol, commodities and the increased debt come into play. is that the thinking?
Comment by david — November 17, 2016 @ 6:48 am
It’s mostly a mainstream media fallacy that rate hikes are bad for Gold. And look what happened after rates were hiked in December of last year for the first time in more than a decade – ushered in a new Gold and Venture bull market, as dollar bulls had nothing more to speculate on for a while. Ma Yellen would be giving us all an early Christmas gift if she hiked rates Dec. 14. The news would be out of the bag and future rate hikes would most likely be gradual. It’s also important to focus on real rates which will continue to make Gold very attractive.
Comment by Jon - BMR — November 17, 2016 @ 7:37 am