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November 17, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,222 and $1,232 so far today…as of 9:30 am Pacific, bullion is flat at $1,225…Silver is 5 cents lower at $16.91…Copper has gained 2 pennies to $2.49…Nickel is off a nickel at $5.07…Crude Oil has added 31 cents to $45.88 while the U.S. Dollar Index has jumped nearly half a point to 100.61

In her testimony before Congress this morning, Fed Chair Janet Yellen made her strongest case yet for a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting December 13-14:

Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee’s longer-run policy goals” on inflation and jobs, Yellen said. “Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability.”

While stating the case for an imminent hike, saying one is “appropriate relatively soon”, Yellen also repeated her pledge that subsequent moves will come at a gradual pace…

The best thing for Gold and the Venture would be a December rate hike, so we hope Ma Yellen has the courage to pull the trigger and deliver that early Christmas gift for investors…with the much speculated hike finally out of the way, Gold should quickly regain traction and also start focusing on a potential ramping up of U.S. budget deficits…

Meanwhile, Yellen put to rest rumors she may resign now that there’s new political leadership in Washington including a President-elect who has been publicly critical of the Fed chair.  “I was confirmed by the Senate to a 4-year term, which ends at the end of January of 2018, and it is fully my intention to serve out that term,” Yellen told Congress this morning…

Positive Economic Data Strengthens Case For Rate Hike

U.S. housing starts surged to a more than 9-year high in October as builders ramped up construction of both single and multifamily homes, offering hope that housing will contribute to economic growth in Q4…meanwhile, consumer prices recorded their biggest increase in 6 months in October on rising gasoline costs and rents, suggesting a pickup in inflation, while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a 43-year low last week…

BHP On Iron Ore & Coking Coal

BHP Billiton (BHP, NYSE), the world’s biggest miner, expects soaring prices of Iron Ore and Coking Coal to moderate even as China pushes ahead with efforts to restructure its steel sector…prices have been supported in recent months by restocking and short-term supply disruptions, CEO Andrew Mackenzie told reporters today in Brisbane following the company’s annual meeting…Iron Ore has jumped 66% this year to rebound from 3 straight annual declines, while Coking Coal has surged about 295%…

Euphoric Top In Marijuana Stocks?

Yesterday’s wild trading action in a number of marijuana stocks, which triggered circuit breakers on multiple occasions, is clearly indicative of at least a short-term top in the sector, and individual plays show extreme RSI(14) overbought conditions…the heightened volatility comes ahead of a Task Force on Marijuana Legalization report to be delivered at the end of the month…the report will provide a roadmap for how the federal Liberal government goes about implementing a legal recreational marijuana market…the market, which could be worth as much as $10 billion, is expected to launch in 2018

Meanwhile, the Globe and Mail reported this morning that cannabis could be effective in weaning Canadians addicted to opioids off the deadly drugs, according to a University of British Columbia study that examined existing research on how marijuana affects those with mental-health and substance-abuse issues…the Globe’s Mike Hager wrote that Zach Walsh, a clinical psychologist and cannabis researcher who led the study, says the research shows many people are using cannabis to replace or lower their intake of heavier medications, though he cautioned that more medical trials are needed to prove how marijuana is helping those addicted to opioids. “We need to explore the possibility that someone could substitute cannabis for an opioid and, most addiction professionals would agree, that cannabis is an easier habit to kick,” said Dr. Walsh…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. Updated Venture chart…

2Heart of Gold Camp’s Captain Kirkham!…

3. Morumbi Resources (MOC, TSX-V) on track to complete Honduras Zinc mine acquisition by year-end…

4. Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) on the cusp of a breakout…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

10 Comments

  1. Jon – I think your right on a top for the mj’s. I have seen this before. They get hot for 3 or 4 months and then everything comes back down as something else takes over.

    You mentioned HIT one time before. I did not realize the small market cap. The volume the last 2 days indicates strong accumulation going on, it looks close and near for a breakout into the double digits.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2016 @ 10:32 am

  2. Jon – I think your right on a top for the mj’s. I have seen this before. They get hot for 3 or 4 months and then everything comes back down as something else takes over.

    You mentioned HIT one time before. I did not realize the small market cap. The volume the last 2 days indicates strong accumulation going on, it looks close and near for a breakout into the double digits.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2016 @ 10:47 am

  3. Oh, I forgot to mention, HIT is attending a conference next wednesday.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2016 @ 10:48 am

  4. GGI: Jon, what is a realistic timeline for drilling the E&L. You note: “coming months”. Are we looking at early spring 2017?
    Thanks
    Foz

    Comment by Foz1971 — November 17, 2016 @ 11:36 am

  5. MITK – Daniel, news story on Mitek Systems. http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-z6626217-U%3aMITK-20161117&symbol=MITK&region=U

    Comment by Vepper — November 17, 2016 @ 12:37 pm

  6. Jon, what are your thoughts on HOU & HGU post Trump? Should we be holding tight (you mentioned a 3 month window – does that still hold?).

    Comment by dermo63 — November 17, 2016 @ 3:29 pm

  7. Both look great right now, dermo63, even better I believe with Trump. Gold stocks may take a few more weeks to kick in – need to get the coming rate hike out of the way – then kaboom, it’s launch time the last half of Dec. IMHO. Decidedly pro-growth Trump-Pence-Republican policy package – across-the-board tax cuts (individuals, corporate), infrastructure push + defense spending boost will also initially increase the deficit which is Gold positive/Gold stock bullish + inflationary…Saudis seem determined to get an OPEC deal, so Oil is going to come around as well and the chart clearly shows a favorable overall trend there…with the HOU we’re definitely playing for a big breakout past the low $50’s in Crude – exact timing is uncertain (Q1 2017?) but when it happens, $70 would come in a hurry on technical momentum which means a double on the HOU from current levels…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 17, 2016 @ 3:56 pm

  8. The coming rate hike of a 1/4 point will be a big non-event. Obviously the market has priced this in already as it usually does and I agree Jon that gold will likely go up once it’s finally announced and out of the way. Trump’s spending plans should be good for almost all commodities and 2017 should be a pretty good year for those in commodities.

    Comment by Danny — November 17, 2016 @ 5:56 pm

  9. Dave – you are not correct … the weed biz is and will be a going concern for years to come.. may be over heated a bit now.. but the biz model is real.. unlike EQT who is and was a scam by Hardy…
    and what fkn conference does HIT attending mean anything??

    and yes wine is involved.. I am so po’d at so many CEO’s and those that … I will leave it at that..
    I remember Bert’s comments to me.. leave it AT that!

    Comment by Patricia — November 17, 2016 @ 7:41 pm

  10. Thanks Vepper, i will be reviewing that list of 500 fastest growing companies to see what else, in addition to Mitek, might be of interest.

    Comment by Daniel — November 18, 2016 @ 7:00 am

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